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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
Daniel Boone replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
My bad on the gefs. Actually saw on ma forum that it was mild too. May of been an earlier run they were referencing although last I had saw the eps was mild, gefs cold. I'd bet models would be going with the warm-up back the in lr as well, only to of reverted at closer range. Also, makes u wonder how the MJO acted then.?. We know HL blocking was prevalent most of the time. I, like you Carvers, feel HLB is and will play havoc. Enough of it and even the MJO warm phases can be rather cool. Food for thought.- 574 replies
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Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
Daniel Boone replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
MJO may actually deter end of month mild pattern eps,gefs indicate. I wonder how models would have done during the late 70's Winters .?. The repetitive persistent cold pattern that lasted for months.- 574 replies
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Hm is all in end of Month. He is really touting the Aleutian L.p. pattern setup..via his tweets.
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Verbatim, that has snow threats written all over it, depending on how much cold is available of course.
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11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
Daniel Boone replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
Last checked, Kmrx hadn't put out anything on it. Models all underforecasted amounts for Lee County. The Euro came closest. -
11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
Daniel Boone replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
The Nov. 1950 storm was a monster ! Great writeups and pics can be found online. My County received 1 to 3 feet with much higher drifts. The official reporting station in Pennington gap (ele. 1400 ft) recorded 17". A relative of mine was in for Thanksgiving from Dayton Ohio and said his Car looked like a hump, completed covered when he went out to get ready to head back to Dayton. The Weirton Museum online has alot of pics from that part of WV in their site. 4 feet there. Most reported was in southern WV where 5 feet was reported ! -
11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
Daniel Boone replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
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I'm in a rather elevated area at 1729 ft.
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Measured 3.5 to 4 inches here Lee Co. in far SW Va..
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11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
Daniel Boone replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
Measured 3.5 to 4 inches. 4" in grass. -
Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
Daniel Boone replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
That September setup of a -Nao hooking up with a SE Ridge is a somewhat typical setup in summer months but, not Winter. Has happened but, rare. So, hopefully the law of averages works in this case.- 574 replies
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11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
Daniel Boone replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
Showers started here about an hour ago. -
11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
Daniel Boone replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
I remember years past, mainly 70's and 80s of this occurring with arctic frontal passages. Several inches would fall , even in the lower elevations. -
Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
Daniel Boone replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
18z nam increased totals a good bit monday/Tuesday.- 574 replies
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That '69-70 looks scrumptious here in far western Va..
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Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
Daniel Boone replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Step in step with you on your Lr thoughts Jeff ! Very good and sound reasoning in layman's terms ! The only slught difference in my thoughts is the snowfall for mon-tue. I suspect areas along ky-va border should pick up a general 1-3" . Of course, this area is not your area of expertise.- 574 replies
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26 here this morning with heavy frost.
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Nothing to the snow in October, winter over thing. Several October's featured snow here and the Winter was cold/snowy. Of course, most of us know this. However, there are those that really believe that "rule". Lol.
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Received a light dusting of snow on vehicles here last night.
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Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
Daniel Boone replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
I remember those well too John. Had those recorded in my records of which got misplaced during relocation. Don't know why those didn't come to mind. Only snowed once here oct. 95 . Recorded 1.5" Halloween 93 with about 2" the 1st of Nov. . Jan. 94 was cold here but only received 1 significant snow. 7 inches. 95-96 ; 52 inches.- 574 replies
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Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
Daniel Boone replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
I can remember October 1976 being one of the coldest on record as was November and the Winter became the famed frigid Winter of 77. The following Winter had an early severe cold blast that brought snow to even the lower elevations on the 13th of October. However, the rest of the month was rather mild as was early November . Things changed abruptly after the 20th and Dec thru mid March was cold and snowy. So, there are exceptions to the cold October =mild winter, cold November =cold winter rule. Of course, we are in a different era climate wise now and of all the years of record, odds favor the cold November cold Winter rule .- 574 replies
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Picked up 1.07" here from a Tstorm yesterday. Broke 22 day dry streak.
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Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
Daniel Boone replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Picked up 1.07" here in a Tstorm yesterday so, broke the 22 day dry streak.- 574 replies
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Spring/Summer 2019 medium to long range discussion.
Daniel Boone replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
We pretty well knew this would happen, unfortunately. -
TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever
Daniel Boone replied to janetjanet998's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, kmrx was wrong on the heaviest axis 2day as it has setup through seky/swva. .93 here as of 2:30 pm...some areas along the border already at 1.5+ inches 2day alone.