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Daniel Boone

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  1. Daniel Boone
    Think that's the biggest concern for the lower elevations. The longer the clear skies 2night the better. Problem is, it's already beginning to cloud up. Worst case scenario; cloud up during afternoon as that seals in the daytime heat build up , then remain cloudy up to precip onset. Don't you just hate that if you're a snow lover.?!
  2. Daniel Boone
    It was wet here in Lee County up until last Month. It was way below average here. Only 1.4 inches of rain ! Just.43" yesterday. The last 3 systems have produced much less than forecasted. Snowfall fro the other day was more than models projected for the County.
  3. Daniel Boone
    Right along you John and my thoughts yesterday of the "how" to get a favorable pattern even with the AK Vort.
  4. Daniel Boone
    Exactly the option we discussed that would get it done John. More than likely will be wavering back and forth between the two alot. Saw where CPC Totally bought yesterday's solutions. Not surprising though, as percentage odds and recent climate persistence trends would dictate that from them.
  5. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, for sure John. Still some hope for last nights depiction to be possible, with enough NA blocking and that NE PAC warm pool as Carver aluded to. But, with the Nina, in particular it's strength, this new depiction has greater odds of happening i.m.o, unfortunately . Maybe, it'll be more back and forth between the 2. If so, we can work with that.
  6. Daniel Boone
    My thoughts are exactly with Carvers. That NE PAC warm pool along with HLB are fighting any Niña takeover . IF Eps later depiction is right, it appears HLB may gradually force that vortex in the Yukon south. Probably down into south central Canada then who knows from there. Down into US or into eastern Canada.
  7. Daniel Boone
    Gotcha ! Thanks for the clarification. I expect back and forth as well. MJO does rule the roost many,( if not most, times ) tbh.
  8. Daniel Boone
    Same things were brought up back in '95-96 Fred as well as 2010-11 and a couple Factors warred against the full La Niña pattern takeover . Oh yes, it did try especially in 95-96 as short lived bouts of mild would come east only to be shunted by strong blocking in the NAO domain and other areas as Carver aluded to. Of course, Niña was weak that season so, odds are less favorable for that yo happen now and more in favor of more niña influence. However, what about 2010-11 ? Strong Niña but, remained cold overall in the East. Blocking was one reason. What was the others ?
  9. Daniel Boone
    Noticed Dierks on WCYB this evening mentioned just a low chance of a turn over at the end for end of week system and showed a model run. He is a good Met and guy but, is warm biased.
  10. Daniel Boone
    Feb. 2015 was epic and was going against the grain, so to speak.
  11. Daniel Boone
    If today's GFS Operational comes to fruition, our cold/snow after 2morrow and Tuesdays went in the crapper! Flip flop from last several days.
  12. Daniel Boone
    Y
  13. Daniel Boone
    What a boobyful Map !
  14. Daniel Boone
    They're pretty much always conservative. I'll say this, IF there's strong nw flow off the lakes and enuff steep lapse rates, I guarantee much more than they're showing. NW flow alone would yield more than 2 inches in places like Wise, Va for example..
  15. Daniel Boone
    This is the one we're rooting for Carvers. CMC actually did better here the last couple seasons than the others a few times.
  16. Daniel Boone
    One thing of note, especially with LR modeling is the heavy weighting of ENSO. So, this could be alot of the shifting to the western trough. Of course, may very well happen and of course with the strength of La niña, odds favor that.
  17. Daniel Boone
    Agree John. Also, measurements were taken different back then by some. They would measure after snow ended and settled. Also, during drifting events they would measure the leveled or lowest area instead of different locations for an average.
  18. Daniel Boone
    Here ya go guys. That one ruled the roost here as far as November Snowstorms. A true Blizzard ! Cars were completely covered here in Lee County from huge drifts . Higher eles. of County received 2 ft.+. Drifts much higher. Temps were in teens during day.
  19. Daniel Boone
    4" here from that last year.
  20. Daniel Boone
    Winter 95-96 started early and ended late. Long , snowy winter ala of those of yore. It was a weak Nina. Strong HLB.
  21. Daniel Boone
    Regarding the forecasted mild, fluke cold Winter of 2010-11, this area in the far Southwestern part of the Forum wound up with an above average Snow Season. Dec. and January was well above , Feb. Avg. Temps were well below.
  22. Daniel Boone
    No severe here tonight but, not far from flooding as have picked up over an inch and a half of Rain today and moderate to somewhat heavy at times continues.
  23. Daniel Boone
    5.06" Rainfall Storm Total here as of 1 p.m...
  24. Daniel Boone
    I lived and worked in Pennington gap in Lee County at the time and remember this well. I also recorded the event in my daily weather log. My records from then were unfortunately lost during relocation. However, memory serves me quite well. Snow began in Pennington around 8:30 p.m. and quickly became heavy. By 6:30 the next morning there was 6 inches with just a few flakes falling. I worked for the city at the time and was outside throughout the day and only observed a few light flurries and can recall reports of heavy snow just to our south in Rogersville. Snow began falling moderate to heavy just after 4 p.m. and lasted untill 9 or so with an additional 4 inches falling for a total of 10". The morning low there the 5th was -21 with the official afternoon high of 4 below. This was recorded at the radio station there as well as my home in Pennington gap. A report of -30 (via, WCYB) from the Rose hill area in western Lee County. The Jan 21 1985 outbreak was about the same with -24 Low, -4 High with snow depth of 7".
  25. Daniel Boone
    Radiance, first off, kudos on the work u put into this. Good stuff ! The biggest difference this winter compared to last I believe is going to be blocking. Enough of it and you can have cold cover much of the U.S., coast to coast, including the upper Southeast even with a -PNA. Ala., 1978-79. Of course on back, the '60's featured this fairly consistent. Blocking was so strong it congested the flow to create a +PNA at times with a -PDO background . Of course, as so many make a point of, we are in a warmer Climate era now so, things are different now. Yes, this is true but, a watered down version to the pattern those years is still possible. Also, we are in a decent Solar Minimum now and let's not forget the descending QBO.
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