Daniel Boone

Yeah, noticed that. It just scattered the Shield out after getting past I-75. Could be suggesting a mild tounge of sorts with maybe a mix or some rain . I didn't look at QPF . It would answer to whether that's the Case. A couple other Models are showing the quick drop off as well.

Reached an afternoon High of 24 here. Had there been Snow Cover it would of stayed in the Teens. Currently 15.

Our NWS uses the NBM. I don't know which Models are weighted heaviest within it.

Yes but, that's a solid area in Kentucky. They seem to dodge the Valley like we do Pedestrians crossing the Road.

Look at Kentucky ! If things don't change, it's just not the Great Valleys Year. Man.

Yeah, been thinking the same thing. You'd think more should get pulled along the Front.

Western end of Lee County had measurable Snow. .5-1.0. Northern section on Wise Plateau as well. A very light dusting here in central Lee County.

Yeppers. So is the life of a Snow lover in the Tn Valley, lol.

Yeah. Would be nice if that weak Low it pops in the NE Gulf develops further West and intensifies so it would run more Northward.

Looks like a quick 1-3" in NETN that Run before quickly reforming or shifting to in north cental NC up through Central and Eastern VA.

GFS showing similar to NAM 3k Friday Night/Sat Morning. 2-3" here by 12z Sat.

Can't win for losing in Tn Valley. This one will nail Kentucky pretty good while the next will go South and East of us.

Yeah really. I remember some Winters where south of us wound up with more.

As far as the RGEM, it still shows 4-6" in Harlan and Bell Counties in SEKY. Oddly, that drops to around 3" in Lee and Wise Counties. 850's look fine overall for the aforementioned area's. Nam 3k looks pretty Jacked for these Area's. Looks a bit worrisome a bit further South. Model's have been all over the Place with the Setup so, right now, even at this close Range, we just don't know.

It's doing it's usual song and dance. It'll hit several solutions, probably some totally opposite of the one before knowing it, lol.

Looking like A Carolina Special to me. I'm glad for those folks, particularly the Piedmont. Sad for us. We'll have to settle for our dustings for now. Another 150 Miles West would be great. Hopefully we'll set up a better Trough alignment for us before long. Hopefully I'm wrong about this one.

Hopefully Canadian Suite is correct. Thermal flawed with Ukie that run.

From what I can tell, they were predominantly East based Larry ,Just running off memory. Maybe you can find more clarity on that. Also, blocking looks to of been in place. I remember the long cold stretch in 2011 well. Incidentally, as I'm sure you know, that was a fairly strong Nina. Strong Blocking that Winter.

Ok. If we can find whether it was east west or basin wide those cold Year's.

Can you research that and see if there's a connection ?

Excellent Post Man !

Yes. That's what I was referring to irt research. I'd saw a thing or two on where you had did that. Was that dependant on La nina location Larry ? Im thinking that is what was batted around as the possible reason.

It's a blend of the Model's as most know as it's pretty obvious. I don't know how many are used or which one's to come up with the Average of them all. It's been awhile since I was told by the NWS . They just explained it and said it's the one they use. I don't think any Model's are given more weight than the others. If the better Model is showing 10" for a given area while 2 of the worst are showing zilch, the printout is going to be very low and may be way off. So, it's overall a good Idea Model. You get the average of the Consensus so to speak but, it can sometimes be way off because of what I mentioned above.

Just looking at MJO Charts one would expect a mild Pattern in the East. Goes to show other Drivers sometimes dictate or throw the MJO effects off kilter. Even the location of La nina apparently according to some research.

Not saying there will be nearly that much but as far as the coverage area, that'll probably be about right if the MJO traverses through 7 and affects the Pattern as the Euro seemed imply then, with blocking in place. Hopefully the boundary sets up further South. Man, we'd be in big time business then.