Daniel Boone

Yeah. Would be nice if that weak Low it pops in the NE Gulf develops further West and intensifies so it would run more Northward.

Looks like a quick 1-3" in NETN that Run before quickly reforming or shifting to in north cental NC up through Central and Eastern VA.

GFS showing similar to NAM 3k Friday Night/Sat Morning. 2-3" here by 12z Sat.

Can't win for losing in Tn Valley. This one will nail Kentucky pretty good while the next will go South and East of us.

Yeah really. I remember some Winters where south of us wound up with more.

As far as the RGEM, it still shows 4-6" in Harlan and Bell Counties in SEKY. Oddly, that drops to around 3" in Lee and Wise Counties. 850's look fine overall for the aforementioned area's. Nam 3k looks pretty Jacked for these Area's. Looks a bit worrisome a bit further South. Model's have been all over the Place with the Setup so, right now, even at this close Range, we just don't know.

It's doing it's usual song and dance. It'll hit several solutions, probably some totally opposite of the one before knowing it, lol.

Looking like A Carolina Special to me. I'm glad for those folks, particularly the Piedmont. Sad for us. We'll have to settle for our dustings for now. Another 150 Miles West would be great. Hopefully we'll set up a better Trough alignment for us before long. Hopefully I'm wrong about this one.

Hopefully Canadian Suite is correct. Thermal flawed with Ukie that run.

From what I can tell, they were predominantly East based Larry ,Just running off memory. Maybe you can find more clarity on that. Also, blocking looks to of been in place. I remember the long cold stretch in 2011 well. Incidentally, as I'm sure you know, that was a fairly strong Nina. Strong Blocking that Winter.

Ok. If we can find whether it was east west or basin wide those cold Year's.

Can you research that and see if there's a connection ?

Excellent Post Man !

Yes. That's what I was referring to irt research. I'd saw a thing or two on where you had did that. Was that dependant on La nina location Larry ? Im thinking that is what was batted around as the possible reason.

It's a blend of the Model's as most know as it's pretty obvious. I don't know how many are used or which one's to come up with the Average of them all. It's been awhile since I was told by the NWS . They just explained it and said it's the one they use. I don't think any Model's are given more weight than the others. If the better Model is showing 10" for a given area while 2 of the worst are showing zilch, the printout is going to be very low and may be way off. So, it's overall a good Idea Model. You get the average of the Consensus so to speak but, it can sometimes be way off because of what I mentioned above.

Just looking at MJO Charts one would expect a mild Pattern in the East. Goes to show other Drivers sometimes dictate or throw the MJO effects off kilter. Even the location of La nina apparently according to some research.

Not saying there will be nearly that much but as far as the coverage area, that'll probably be about right if the MJO traverses through 7 and affects the Pattern as the Euro seemed imply then, with blocking in place. Hopefully the boundary sets up further South. Man, we'd be in big time business then.

The way things are going, it's really hard to say. For all intents and Purposes P6 should be warm going by the Chart's. It's obviously not . As we know, the MJO has been of low Amp or in the COD alot. Also, the Kelvin and Rosbys have been creating chaos as you've been pointing out. My take is, like you, there'll be a strong but probably short lived warm-up. If the depiction from the EC you posted is correct it may last longer. I just don't buy that deep of a Trough out West. Just my 2 cents worth.

The Nina is still going as evidenced by Satellite Imagry. That is still hampering the STJ. IF the Polar Jet can dive to the Gulf as weathernut alluded to earlier, then we wouldn't need the STJ as it should spawn Cyclogenesis. We could be working into the '95-96 Pattern if we start seeing that happen. Miller B to Miller A Transfer's. Hybrids. Hopefully, the mean Trough becomes far enough west to support the disturbances diving down the Front Range and Plains to the Gulf. If blocking is strong and we make it to MJO P8 , with a weakening Nina this could become a probability imo.

I think they're too low on Amounts for Plateau and upper Valley Locations. We got 1/4-1/2 inch Sunday and they were saying no accumulation. With the NWF Snshwrs after the synoptic shield leaves there should be scattered additional accs from those. That's not mentioned in their discussion.

Thanks Buddy . I'm still not up to par. Energy just doesn't want to come back. Has me rather down physically and mentally. Hopefully I'll get lined out and start participating more. Good discussions going on. Hopefully we reel in a couple big dogs before long. At least it looks almost guaranteed of several light events at the very least. That's a plus nowadays. Snow on snow.

Is that 10:1 or kuchera

Sorry to hear you're sick man. I hope you recover quickly. It did a number on me. I'm still not back to normal. We Had 2 Dustings here Today. One around 8 , the other around 10. Contrary to the MRX Remark of mid to upper 30's in early Afternoon, it stayed 30-32 here from around 9 AM till 5 when it hit the twenties.

I'm late to the Party today. Been feeling rough all day with only 3-4 hours Sleep last night. Things are looking interesting this coming Week. Just looking over the Evening Package Forecast for the upcoming week from KMRX and am a bit puzzled as I'm curious to which Models they derived it from. It's nothing like the GFS . It's pretty mild considering what Data I've seen. Of course, you know how conservative and generally warm biased in the medium and LR they typically are. Anyone have any idea of what they may be looking at?

Prayers for your Mom and family Powell.