Daniel Boone

Right with you.

Yeah, nothing to it.

Model's are only as good as they're programmed and what's ingested into them. Probably either broadbrushes your area or the Data ingested is from Station's such as Lafollette ; warmer Locations. So, the Model's reflects that for your area. That's my Guess. Same way they are here. Pennington gap and the County Airport 7 Miles SW of Jonesville are the " official" Station's. They are warmer than most of the County.

That's quite possible. A cold pool there support's the 50-50. Without that it's possible for linkage.

Yeah, interesting! Quite different from my heyday Year's of Forecasting(I'm an Antique). Makes for a tougher seasonal forecast for sure , and to some degree medium range.

First Flakes for mountains now looking likely; maybe even Valley Locations.

I suspect the area of forecast Snowfall to expand if the Pattern forecasted is realized. Looking like a good amount of moisture to work with. Great Lakes are very warm as well.

Yep. 34 here as well. 32 in Keokee in northern Lee County. 33 in Rose hill and Ewing Recorded.

Whew ! Don't want a milk Winter for sure.

May get first Flakes early November in Valley Locations.

Currently 52 degrees here after a heavy Squall line moved through about 45 minutes ago. .76" of Rain so far today. A good bit more than forecasted. Way more than the terrible HRRR had for us.

Currently 52 degrees here after a heavy Squall line moved through about 45 minutes ago. .76" of Rain so far today. A good bit more than forecasted. Way more than the terrible HRRR had for us.

Hopefully the Polar Jet will come down far enough to produce plenty Upslope.

Exactly. I don't see it being as bad as his outcome turned out. I like Don but, he's heavy into Global warming and I think he incorporates that a bit much. If Pensacola can get a record Snowstorm we can still get abundant Snowfall Winter's.

Uggh. Cold but not alot of Snow.

Don Sutherland did some meticulous Calculations Yesterday and came up with a cool Fall but a mild Winter . He details what he factored in and how he did it over in the main Forum. Hopefully we get something akin to last Winter if you like cold and at least average Snowfall. The SST'S in the west Pacific are boiling and those in the Ne Pac have cooled considerably. The SST'S around Newfoundland have warmed. So, not the right direction but, plenty of time to revert . The SST'S in the NEPAC did just that in 2013-14.

We had patchy frost yesterday morning. Keokee in northern Lee County hit 31 with widespread frost .

I agree brother. I was just pointing out how the main Driver and Analog Computer generated Outlook basically, that Don Sutherland came up with with his meticulously done Calculations. Check it out in the main Forum. Interesting, although like you, I'm hoping the Asian snow/ice above average buildup and weak PV you noted does help. I don't know if he factored those Parameters in or not. He went into some detail on what was used but, seemed mosly analogus to similar late Summer Years and ENSO Status. Those boiling WPAC SST'S will cause a firehouse PAC Jet so, depending on how strong Blocking in the AO Domain is, it could present a problem for us. Our best hope for is that those Waters in the NEPAC warm back up ala 2013-14. That would help augment ridging into Alaska and western Canada. I had high hopes earlier for a likelihood of a dominant -NAO due to the cold SST'S around Newfoundland but, those have since warmed dramatically. Hopefully something will cool them once again.

As of now, barring any drastic changes, the main Climate Driver Data extrapolated for the Winter suggests a strong SER presence. Of course, blocking is tough to factor in. If that were to manifest then things could be different...unless there's the SER -NAO Linkage. If you're a cold/snow lover like me it doesn't look good. As far as economically, it would be great as utility prices as well as other basic needs continue to rise. Many are having trouble making ends meet.

That would be a nice dumping in January.

They're going standard canonical La nina Pattern.

I think the Newfoundland warm or cold pool effects whether or not that linkage occurs as it affects the likelihood, longevity and strength of a 50-50 Low. Maybe, Chuck, Larry or Don will take the time to research that and see what the numbers show irt to that.

The Cold pool lends to a 50-50 Low of which stops any linkage.

Yeah, that has occurred more often in later Year's.

Agree. That favors a +NAO as most here know. If something shakes up that area and it cools drastically then things could be different.