Daniel Boone
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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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The problem is, the Model tends to go straight to mixing or Rain when projecting a Temp above 32 at Ground level. We all know, even if the Temp goes above 32 that if it's below that 200 ft up it's still going to be Snow particularly if the air is not 100% saturated or the gl temp is greater than 35. Even with that threshold if the flakes are big enough it would still be considered wet snow. Radar is faulty itr also as it can be pouring snow but if the Temp is estimated to be 32 or greater it'll show Rain or mix, depending on which radar used.
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If that were to happen and somehow HLB reasserted or manifested, man, could be a cold/snowy early March.
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If I were them i'd go with winter weather advisory for now but, also add a winter storm watch. In the discussion I would explain the reasoning. My gut tells me they will upgrade to a winter storm watch in the morning for the northern plateau and SWVA.
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Yeah, that makes sense. Probably the Transfer the biggest concern although, the heavier area from the incoming System does appear to be shifting South some and may hit the area fairly good before a Transfer.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Daniel Boone replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Those were the Day's ! -
Spoke with MRX earlier and that along with downsloping is their Concern. They're thinking Northern section's of the Valley and the Plateau will get at least 1-3 with possibly more(basically conservative approach) but, area's closer to the Smokie's not much while the Smokies do well. Of course, this was based on overnight and morning run's undoubtedly.
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Yeah, it seems to really be doing that since the recent "upgrade".
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Any way you slice it, the Euro is having a problem with Moisture getting in the System. Could be partially ( in Layman's Terms) it seeing the Atmosphere being drained from the previous System. Convective to the South a probable reason as well.
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Wound up with about 3/4" here overnight. Puts my Seasonal Total at 15.2".
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A half inch here currently with a little more in spots. Very light snow currently. Radar shows light snow with embedded heavier showers and streamers back to Louisville. If this doesn't fizzle some area's may wind up with 1-3 inches.
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+QBO
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Been the best Model hands down for here this Winter.
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Lexington Ky after Rain changed to Snow Today.
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February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
Daniel Boone replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
High Ratio's will be in order for at least half of the qpf in NW Section's . Also, should be more in Upslope area's as well as Model's handle it poorly. Euro has a bit of a low qpf tendency as well as a slight warm bias. -
Yeah, I remember when we had 4 in a month. I'm sure you do too.
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I hope/pray for a full recovery and wellness brother.
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Lol. Not likely.
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Absolutely hate transfers to coast. Transfers or development on the Lee side of Apps are great however. Btw, light snow showers falling here currently. Heavy enough to white out Mountain view couple miles from here.
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Probably a product of it's overamping bias.
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4.01" Storm Total here. Thankfully severe storms missed here. Severe Flooding however.
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3.16" Total here so far Today.
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Flooding occurring here now. Flood warning issued. Between 2.25 and 2.5" has fallen in the Jonesville area since onset.
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EC is flawed with it's Great Valley orientation anymore. Wants to shoot the Great Valley further west and due NE. Snow Maps are evident regarding this, even at close range. Needs work irt Terrain precision.
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In regards to the Eastern warm nose. The more Systems do that the more Models will show that occuring. As Carver's alluded to , those Tracks are usually perfect for the Area. Could be a time where Modeling is basically defaulting to the warm nose solution due to so many consecutive times that's occurred.
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Shades of 2015.
