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Daniel Boone

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Everything posted by Daniel Boone

  1. Daniel Boone
    Light snow began here around 10:30. Temps running just above freezing here. 34 now 33 at onset. Looks kike a dusting on mountain from 2000 ft on up so far.
  2. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, sadly not a very professional forecast at all.
  3. Daniel Boone
    Nice Toy !!!
  4. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, Bluewave will look like a genius.
  5. Daniel Boone
    Could be Strat goings on messing with the Models.
  6. Daniel Boone
    Sounds like me sometimes, lol.
  7. Daniel Boone
    Much of the moisture in the mid/ upper levels was used up with last System , as KMRX noted. However, alot of low level RH so, may be picking up on that being lifted.
  8. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, as most of us know, an SSW really fouled us up just as a great pattern was setting up a couple times the last several years. Timing of occurrence I suppose.
  9. Daniel Boone
    Wound up with just over a half inch Total here. Totally short changed. Those bands continued training S to N over same areas yesterday. When that one that soaked the plateau finally slowly made it over our area there wasn't much left of it.
  10. Daniel Boone
    Alot of winner's there. Surprised to not see '78 . The MJO phases were similar is what was intriguing with Jan. that year. Cold/snowy through those. I don't know if MJO is used in those packages.?. I see quite a few Nina and Neutral Enso in there as well. Those '60's one's were great as was '71. I'm with you on the extreme like '85 . Even if that pattern were carbon copied it wouldn't be as extreme as the Climate is a bit warmer now. That 77 wouldn't be as extreme either, obviously. Of course, would still be some cold stuff. Some other's in there that featured a turn to colder but, didn't yield much Snow. '88-'89 looks to be too with that. It was rather lackluster sadly. Only real decent snowfall was late February. 25th I think. 5-7" from a storm that started as sleet(ice pellets). Most of those on the list featured were good Snowfall wise.
  11. Daniel Boone
    Great work and analysis as usual Man! Some great Winter's featured that Pattern. Jan-Mar 1979 comes to mind. Even the great cold snowy Winter of 77-78 to some extent. Hints of 95-96 in there too. Hopefully that comes to fruition. If so, fun and games.
  12. Daniel Boone
    Exactly. Same deal with last System. This is 3 Months in a row of well below average Rainfall.
  13. Daniel Boone
    Really shafted here. Drought back to life. Just 0.30" System Total as of now.
  14. Daniel Boone
    The way things have gone for several years now, the MJO has tended to win. So, yeah it has the hot hand.
  15. Daniel Boone
    Should be mitigated and muted due to blocking if MJO is in warm phases at a decent Amp.. If goes circle of death aft ph 3 may not be much of a warmup at all.
  16. Daniel Boone
    A boom for you guys east side if Apps, bust western side as downsloping killed us. 0.30 Total here !
  17. Daniel Boone
    Makes sense.
  18. Daniel Boone
    Well if it's anything like it was with last weeks event, expect double the amounts shown. Snowhole basically going up through higher eles of Russell County too. I don't see how it came with that " conclusion". Lighter precip northern shield maybe . Downsloping ne valley , none central.?.. Probably just being GooFuS like last week.
  19. Daniel Boone
    Verbatim that should be all snow n and nw quadrant . Gfs did that with last ull , had rain over some areas that was all snow. Thicknesses clearly present snow. Boundary shouldn't be an issue then n and nw quadrant.
  20. Daniel Boone
    Merry Christmas everyone !
  21. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, that blocking during a Nino is a big time difference maker, even with a -PNA. Historical analysis is clearcut irt that. Even can mute the decent amp MJO warm phases to where we still score in the upper SE and MA.
  22. Daniel Boone
    Larry had a bit of Info on the MJO Phases and the years noted that stayed cold during warm phases in SE Sub forum. Some good ones in there. January 1978 was one. It was cold and snowy the entire month here. Also , January 2010. He also showed the ones in which it was warm as well. Hard to believe but, they were nearly even. A slight hedge on warm side 51% I think. Blocking and El nino appears to be the difference maker.
  23. Daniel Boone
    Man, we're completely on the same page. Larry posted on SE Forum irt what we're discussing, giving an explanation on how we get around warm ph. Exactly what we discussed yesterday. He brought up an example and that being last Christmas cold shot being during MJO Ph 5. I just replied you and I had mentioned the ways we get around that in the Tn valley Forum. Thing is, HLB is not guaranteed as we know. Also, cold last Christmas took forever to finally get in here and was short lived. Makes sense with the MJO working against it. Hopefully, strong blocking will set up, if not our worries are warranted. P.S, just went back and saw someone had posted Larry's remarks here. Should of looked before I leaped, lol. Btw, a shoutout to Larry, he is top notch in the meteorological community and as a genuine Person.
  24. Daniel Boone
    Yeah agree Larry, that was what Carvers and I in the Tenn Valley Forum were saying regarding how we get around the MJO .warm phases.
  25. Daniel Boone
    Probably see those snow projections increase as we get closer if the advertised pattern continues to evolve.
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