Daniel Boone

Yeah, hopefully we go low amp 8 and COD . Research shows, as I think you even showed results and findings awhile back that showed that a the best for the SE.

Cross Polar Flow.

If CPF sets back up( and it should) it should fairly quickly. I have witnessed several times however, to where the Pattern set up perfectly for a Snowstorm but not enough cold air came down and we got cold Rain, even at higher elevations. So, it does hurt if Canada gets scoured, make no mistake about it. Chinook's are a normal occurrence but, some don't last long or don't completely scour most of Canada of Cold. Agree on what's mild in Canada is still cold here. Alot depends in how much above the cold source is and how expansive. Also how much above it is in the US down to us. Cold up there, once Chinook's subside automatically begins to get colder even without CAA from CPF for obvious reasons. CPF is what you want for rapid refilling. This is basically what most of us already know but thought I'd bring it up due to reference and conversation. The Winter of 01-02 comes to mind as an example of a depleted Cold Source as Canada was scoured and totally ruined us on several chances for significant Snow. The good thing this Winter imo is, strong HLB actually blocked CPF that Winter . So, that shouldn't be a problem this Winter.

Yeah, other Suite's were right. We were all hoping the Euro would score a Coup.

Yeah, so far the back and forth, average type Winter looks to be on Track. The JMA is showing a Plains/Ms Valley mean Trough position for January. The other's a bit East. That bodes well for us if realized. It makes sense given the West and North Pac SST'S now. The possibility of a further West Trough is there but, depending on the Nina Strength and position, imo, in whether the mean position transitions to there I think. There is the risk of what seems to be a possibility of a far western trough along with a far eastern one. Ridge between. Definitely don't want that. Talk about Canadian Chinook, whew ! The good thing is that's unlikely. I agree with you on the Chinook's Carvers. You just don't won't what I alluded to last paragraph as then it would be overboard, lol . Occasional and short duration we can deal with.

Yeah, the position is further East. The warm anomalies is along immediate Coastal NC from what I can tell. The blue shaded area makes it appear further West. Any way you slice it, the Trough is suggested to be East of a typical Nina . If the current situation is any indication, it may be further East and be an Eastern based Trough. A possibility too.

Good valid points. My guess is the Trough will be centered East of the typical Nina . As the Aleutian Ridge should average East of the usual Nina Position. I've thought this since November when the WPAC and NPAC SST State changed a good bit. Also, Webb's research lends to that as well. So, when you average out the Seasonals you pretty much get that. The Plains/ Mississippi Valley mean position is very viable imo. So, my Outlook is a back and forth type Winter in the East with near average Tenps and Snowfall using Todays Normals. Just a retired old timer Forecasters Opinion here.

Yeah, Pac Jet ruining things again. I remember in the mild Winter of 01-02 of being in what should have been a perfect pattern for a cold and snowy Eastern US but, Canada was flooded with mild air so, it was too warm. The best we can hope for is CPF sets up and last awhile to cool everywhere back down or a cold core storm system that can still produce Snow.

Yeah, some oddities for sure. I was just thinking awhile ago if by some chance blocking could manifest we may be in good shape around Christmas. Just hard to expect that with a +QBO.

Yeah, actually makes sense irt to the MJO projection for that timeframe. If we can get the tall PNA Ridge in conjunction with Ph 8 into COD then we could be in business.

Hopefully, the GFS in particular, is out to lunch as the entire run is a wreck. It's probably estimating more forcing from the western systems and possibly the MJO.

Confusion due to confliction.

Imo, he bought into the persistent +TNH advertised Pattern and the dominance of the +PNA so far being a indicator of the Seasonals advertised Pattern. Would be nice to see that pan out but I don't buy it. Weak STJ at best is not going to feed that. I'm still on a back and forth Winter belief with probably average Temps and Snowfall. Which is still better than what we've had last couple Winter's. Hopefully the MJO doesn't muck up my Outlook , as there is the threat of it hanging in warm phases more than cold.

Yep. Probably picking up on Ph 6 MJO. Data was showing it hanging near circle of Death but then showed it coming into ph 6 at good amplitude. That's when the Model's flipped mild.

Yeah, just posted in the Tn Valley sub what a terrible run it is. Totally destroys the Western Ridge. Could be adjusting to the MJO.

0Z GFS is a slap in the face for any hopes of a white Christmas . Terrible run compared to recent one's. Totally breaks down PNA Ridge. Looks like it's showing effects of MJO .

The great Appalachian Storm of November 1950 was like that.. that's what negative tilted Troughs can feature. Enough blocking upstream can cause it to tilt so much that it will be cold on the south side of a System and snowing while mild and rainy north side.

Enso is weighted heaviest in the Seasonals. That's one reason they miss so much at range sometimes. This fall/ early Winter a good example. La nina was predicted to be well established by December a couple months ago and Seasonals were showing accordingly. Other Drivers sometimes overpower and alter a typical Enso pattern as we know too. Ie, 2010-11. Models were straight Nina Textbook for that Winter as I recall. So, could be what's going on with them here.

All I could find is what looks like was done back in September and that was to GFS MOS Output. https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/ Only changes to GFS itself were June ' 21. So, don't know the problem unless not let out to the public . I'll see if KMRX knows anything.

Yeah, very possible too. weak ph 6 with +TNH . IF PH 6 is near COD like Euro shows, probably the Eastward solution imo. Many Mets are banking on typical run of the mill ph 6 mild end of December. Some even scoffing at the cold runs and those that believe otherwise.

Some heavy snshwrs around here tonight. First couple grazed us . This last one didn't. A quick heavy dusting from it. It was dense small flakes. The one earlier had nickle sized with quarter sized close by. The roads are covered now.

Actually, if there's enough amp and forcing from the ph 6 MJO, that would be a viable solution with the Trough probably centered from the Rockies to the Apps. East of typical Ph 6 due to the Eastward forced Pacific State. Some say that east based Nina's can result in an Eastern Trough with a ph 6 MJO. I couldn't find many studies of significance irt that however. Blocking is showing in some model's now in Tandem with a tall PNA Ridge in the long Range. If that were to be the Case that System would probably be a Slider and we'd all get hit.

Now that ,... would get it done !

Snow really lightened up here. Getting shafted as heavier returns are south and North of us. Moisture being depleted around us leaving us with lighter Snow. The way the ball bounces sometimes. Temp is now 31. Hopefully we can get a heavy ling enough lasting burst to get us at least a half inch. So far dusting on grass . About quarter inch on snowboard. Ugh.

Moderate to heavy snow began here just after 8. Temp was 34 then. Currently 32.5 with heavy Snow and a dusting. The Snow got light for about a half hour and the warm ground is hindering accumulation.