Jump to content

Daniel Boone

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,933

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Daniel Boone

  1. Daniel Boone
    Good valid points. My guess is the Trough will be centered East of the typical Nina . As the Aleutian Ridge should average East of the usual Nina Position. I've thought this since November when the WPAC and NPAC SST State changed a good bit. Also, Webb's research lends to that as well. So, when you average out the Seasonals you pretty much get that. The Plains/ Mississippi Valley mean position is very viable imo. So, my Outlook is a back and forth type Winter in the East with near average Tenps and Snowfall using Todays Normals. Just a retired old timer Forecasters Opinion here.
  2. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, Pac Jet ruining things again. I remember in the mild Winter of 01-02 of being in what should have been a perfect pattern for a cold and snowy Eastern US but, Canada was flooded with mild air so, it was too warm. The best we can hope for is CPF sets up and last awhile to cool everywhere back down or a cold core storm system that can still produce Snow.
  3. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, some oddities for sure. I was just thinking awhile ago if by some chance blocking could manifest we may be in good shape around Christmas. Just hard to expect that with a +QBO.
  4. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, actually makes sense irt to the MJO projection for that timeframe. If we can get the tall PNA Ridge in conjunction with Ph 8 into COD then we could be in business.
  5. Daniel Boone
    Hopefully, the GFS in particular, is out to lunch as the entire run is a wreck. It's probably estimating more forcing from the western systems and possibly the MJO.
  6. Daniel Boone
    Confusion due to confliction.
  7. Daniel Boone
    Imo, he bought into the persistent +TNH advertised Pattern and the dominance of the +PNA so far being a indicator of the Seasonals advertised Pattern. Would be nice to see that pan out but I don't buy it. Weak STJ at best is not going to feed that. I'm still on a back and forth Winter belief with probably average Temps and Snowfall. Which is still better than what we've had last couple Winter's. Hopefully the MJO doesn't muck up my Outlook , as there is the threat of it hanging in warm phases more than cold.
  8. Daniel Boone
    Yep. Probably picking up on Ph 6 MJO. Data was showing it hanging near circle of Death but then showed it coming into ph 6 at good amplitude. That's when the Model's flipped mild.
  9. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, just posted in the Tn Valley sub what a terrible run it is. Totally destroys the Western Ridge. Could be adjusting to the MJO.
  10. Daniel Boone
    0Z GFS is a slap in the face for any hopes of a white Christmas . Terrible run compared to recent one's. Totally breaks down PNA Ridge. Looks like it's showing effects of MJO .
  11. Daniel Boone
    The great Appalachian Storm of November 1950 was like that.. that's what negative tilted Troughs can feature. Enough blocking upstream can cause it to tilt so much that it will be cold on the south side of a System and snowing while mild and rainy north side.
  12. Daniel Boone
    Enso is weighted heaviest in the Seasonals. That's one reason they miss so much at range sometimes. This fall/ early Winter a good example. La nina was predicted to be well established by December a couple months ago and Seasonals were showing accordingly. Other Drivers sometimes overpower and alter a typical Enso pattern as we know too. Ie, 2010-11. Models were straight Nina Textbook for that Winter as I recall. So, could be what's going on with them here.
  13. Daniel Boone
    All I could find is what looks like was done back in September and that was to GFS MOS Output. https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/ Only changes to GFS itself were June ' 21. So, don't know the problem unless not let out to the public . I'll see if KMRX knows anything.
  14. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, very possible too. weak ph 6 with +TNH . IF PH 6 is near COD like Euro shows, probably the Eastward solution imo. Many Mets are banking on typical run of the mill ph 6 mild end of December. Some even scoffing at the cold runs and those that believe otherwise.
  15. Daniel Boone
    Some heavy snshwrs around here tonight. First couple grazed us . This last one didn't. A quick heavy dusting from it. It was dense small flakes. The one earlier had nickle sized with quarter sized close by. The roads are covered now.
  16. Daniel Boone
    Actually, if there's enough amp and forcing from the ph 6 MJO, that would be a viable solution with the Trough probably centered from the Rockies to the Apps. East of typical Ph 6 due to the Eastward forced Pacific State. Some say that east based Nina's can result in an Eastern Trough with a ph 6 MJO. I couldn't find many studies of significance irt that however. Blocking is showing in some model's now in Tandem with a tall PNA Ridge in the long Range. If that were to be the Case that System would probably be a Slider and we'd all get hit.
  17. Daniel Boone
    Now that ,... would get it done !
  18. Daniel Boone
    Snow really lightened up here. Getting shafted as heavier returns are south and North of us. Moisture being depleted around us leaving us with lighter Snow. The way the ball bounces sometimes. Temp is now 31. Hopefully we can get a heavy ling enough lasting burst to get us at least a half inch. So far dusting on grass . About quarter inch on snowboard. Ugh.
  19. Daniel Boone
    Moderate to heavy snow began here just after 8. Temp was 34 then. Currently 32.5 with heavy Snow and a dusting. The Snow got light for about a half hour and the warm ground is hindering accumulation.
  20. Daniel Boone
    Agree. Started to mention that yesterday while looking at the GFS snowfall projected output. I noticed clearly the Data from the flawed Pennington gap Station is very evident. It could be just an over time thing but, seemed a bit more of sudden prominence on the layout. At any rate, it looks less smoothed and more micro detailed so, apparently something has been done. Will see what I can find.
  21. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, it has been a strange Year !
  22. Daniel Boone
    I remember back in the early '90's the Seasonal Average there was 110 inches.
  23. Daniel Boone
    If the RGEM wins this time it'll once again be the go to one for our area . None are flawless of course but , some are better percentage wise for certain area's.
  24. Daniel Boone
    Sure looks it but, hard to say for sure as last I spoke with them regarding what they use they said the NBM.
  25. Daniel Boone
    JB messed with that Run.
×
×
  • Create New...