Daniel Boone
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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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All I could find is what looks like was done back in September and that was to GFS MOS Output. https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/ Only changes to GFS itself were June ' 21. So, don't know the problem unless not let out to the public . I'll see if KMRX knows anything.
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Yeah, very possible too. weak ph 6 with +TNH . IF PH 6 is near COD like Euro shows, probably the Eastward solution imo. Many Mets are banking on typical run of the mill ph 6 mild end of December. Some even scoffing at the cold runs and those that believe otherwise.
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Some heavy snshwrs around here tonight. First couple grazed us . This last one didn't. A quick heavy dusting from it. It was dense small flakes. The one earlier had nickle sized with quarter sized close by. The roads are covered now.
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Actually, if there's enough amp and forcing from the ph 6 MJO, that would be a viable solution with the Trough probably centered from the Rockies to the Apps. East of typical Ph 6 due to the Eastward forced Pacific State. Some say that east based Nina's can result in an Eastern Trough with a ph 6 MJO. I couldn't find many studies of significance irt that however. Blocking is showing in some model's now in Tandem with a tall PNA Ridge in the long Range. If that were to be the Case that System would probably be a Slider and we'd all get hit.
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Now that ,... would get it done !
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Snow really lightened up here. Getting shafted as heavier returns are south and North of us. Moisture being depleted around us leaving us with lighter Snow. The way the ball bounces sometimes. Temp is now 31. Hopefully we can get a heavy ling enough lasting burst to get us at least a half inch. So far dusting on grass . About quarter inch on snowboard. Ugh.
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Moderate to heavy snow began here just after 8. Temp was 34 then. Currently 32.5 with heavy Snow and a dusting. The Snow got light for about a half hour and the warm ground is hindering accumulation.
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Agree. Started to mention that yesterday while looking at the GFS snowfall projected output. I noticed clearly the Data from the flawed Pennington gap Station is very evident. It could be just an over time thing but, seemed a bit more of sudden prominence on the layout. At any rate, it looks less smoothed and more micro detailed so, apparently something has been done. Will see what I can find.
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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
Daniel Boone replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
Yeah, it has been a strange Year ! -
I remember back in the early '90's the Seasonal Average there was 110 inches.
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If the RGEM wins this time it'll once again be the go to one for our area . None are flawless of course but , some are better percentage wise for certain area's.
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Sure looks it but, hard to say for sure as last I spoke with them regarding what they use they said the NBM.
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JB messed with that Run.
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Exactly! Absolutely right on Point with everything Bob !!!
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Hopefully so.
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Now that's what we need !
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As of now, the NPAC is much more favorable than it was just a Month ago. Cooled substantially in the WPAC and warmed in the GOA. This should help with the -EPO as it should shunt the Nina augmented Pac Ridge further East. How long those cooler SST'S remain in the WPAC is up for debate but at any rate should be a good while imo.
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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
Daniel Boone replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
Yeah, very cold January that Year. Several Arctic fronts as well as Miller A Snowfalls as you alluded to. -
Yeah, they look to want to make a - EPO pretty much a Staple. That correlates with the Nina PAC Ridge being further East than typical Nina Climo. Makes sense given the SST Structure out there now imo. + TNH would be pretty prevalent with possible over the pole ridging at times. CPF would be likely at higher than average intervals. The +QBO is probably why no real blocking is being advertised. Strange in that you generally want a -AO for a cold Winter but, with the right setup, a positive AO in Tandem with a -EPO and tall PNA Ridge can deliver strong CPF.
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This goes along with the optimistic part. https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1866138638439817444?t=-lY6aNmOwoknGqFMqGVMiw&s=19
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Models are picking up on the MJO now projected to go through the warm Phases through the last half of the Month. Moreover, the Nina is strengthening so, I suspect that will show more in the Models, particularly the LR . The, at least temporary, cooling in the WPAC should help maybe alter the Nina augmented Ridge or align it further East , if the Nina gets strong enough to enhance that Ridge. Some are saying we are in a Classic Nina Pattern now. I don't completely agree with that. Sure, there's some aspects but, other's not. Roundy over on X for example, argued the point it is. If you look at a typical Nina Pattern for early Winter this is mighty close . So, could be the Course we're taking. Hopefully, the Nina won't strengthen alot as we more than likely won't get blocking ala 10-11 or 95-96 to alter its effects. Still hope for the + TNH Pattern to manifest more than usual. So, a little less enthusiastic but, not unoptimistic.
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Thankfully,we got a soaking Rain here in the far Southwestern part of Virginia. 1.04".
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Yeah, very similar to that Event.
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Agree.
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Had a feeling Models would bring that back.
