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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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Thank you buddy.
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Yeah, I did know but, can't remember right off. Noaa I think has those Archived.
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Thanks brother. Sorry to hear of your Uncle . A special one at that . It is tough. I lost a close friend about a week ago due to Cancer. We are here now. It's near Charles town and Harper's Ferry,WV.
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Thanks brother!
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Thanks brother !
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Thank you brother !
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Should of posted this, then you all could see the rest wihin the replies he posted. https://x.com/webberweather/status/1862643196632727822?t=jw1eDVzvhzuarys_0b-Abw&s=19
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https://x.com/webberweather/status/1862645450760671457?t=bmriljybaTSwcBbBT9sFLw&s=19 Explains what I was referring to above to a degree.
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Thank you brother !
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That one is pretty for the whole area. Would be nice ! The Average paints the bullseye to our North across the lower Ohio Valley. Hopefully the Trough hangs a bit further South. I think that's the better odds we have to get the real Action. PJET dominated Pattern. I am headed to just North of Winchester Va now so, may see a bit of clipper action while up here through the Week. Sadly, won't be very enjoyable as my Wife's Dad passed . That's reason for Trip.
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If Webbs right it'll do like Weeklies is showing. I know the warm November tool John uses generally is a good rule if Thumb but, not 100% guarantee as a few Odd out Year's and according to Webb this one has the makings of one of those. The ABNA Setup, Mongolian HP , +QBO and IOD along with a weak somewhat east based Nina may help force the typical Aleutian HP further east and poleward. It is also possible, if not probable, wave lengths changed later this Fall than usual due to CC or whatever therefore sending the November Correlation further in time. May sound a bit strange but, not out of the realm of possibility. Just some food for thought.
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Yeah, looks like maybe a lt event Saturday Evening but, probably no more than a dusting to maybe an inch in spots. Another maybe mid week and the one you mentioned a bit bigger. Jeff is right about a possible big one at end of Pattern. That is a commin occurrence known as the Archambault Theory as most in here know about I think. I suspect this will be a back and forth Winter now so, may end up an Average Winter overall for a change. If there's more blocking that manifests against the grain then probably below average T's above Snow. Happy Thanksgiving Everyone ! May God bless you all.
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Archambault Theory ftw ! Happy Thanksgiving Brother !
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Happy Thanksgiving Everyone !
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Yeah it was here too. The Valentines day Storm was 6-9" in Valley locations here . A Miller A. Several 2-4 inch deals in January, mainly Clippers as I recall.
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Yeah, makes sense. That's probably what it's reacting to.
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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
Daniel Boone replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
Yeah, Arctic air being shown draining farther west in Canada and Northern Rockies. Need a strong HP drop down in conjunction with a strong system to pull it SE. Some Models also showing Aleutian ridging by day 10 and trough moving westward. That's a Nina signature. Aleutian Ridge. Hopefully it winds up further east into Alaska. We need upstream blocking to establish and counter . JB used to say, without a block colds not a lock. -
Back in earlier forecasting years that was one of the Teleconnections we used. Worked quite well.
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It's 18z but, shows that possibility on the Table now. Not surprised really. That solution is clearly viable. Let's see how the other's and it do the next couple days before presuming we're headed that way though.
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It was. We had a record snowy February in 2015. I recorded about 34 inches in Jonesville. Northern section's of Lee County over 50" !
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I'd forgot about what year that happened in Atlanta but, yeah that was one heck of a cold January ! Feb 2015 had the big +TNH Pattern as well and was historic here snowfall and cold wise.
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Exactly. That's what I had read up on too. Interesting. So, if Webb's right about the ABNA and the greater likelihood of a + TNH Lanina could work out fine for us.
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Map looks to be showing hidson bay to Greenland blocking signature. Has Lp look near 50-50. That would probably need adjusted West of there if the SST'S are same then as now. Looks like an Aleutian Ridge. That may be or be further East. Should oscillate during Winter imo. due to the +QBO and ABNA if it manifests through the Winter at times.
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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
Daniel Boone replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
Yeah, exactly what we want. -
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
Daniel Boone replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
Yeah, not a good sign. Hopefully things revert.