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Daniel Boone

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  1. Daniel Boone
    https://x.com/webberweather/status/1862645450760671457?t=bmriljybaTSwcBbBT9sFLw&s=19 Explains what I was referring to above to a degree.
  2. Daniel Boone
    Thank you brother !
  3. Daniel Boone
    That one is pretty for the whole area. Would be nice ! The Average paints the bullseye to our North across the lower Ohio Valley. Hopefully the Trough hangs a bit further South. I think that's the better odds we have to get the real Action. PJET dominated Pattern. I am headed to just North of Winchester Va now so, may see a bit of clipper action while up here through the Week. Sadly, won't be very enjoyable as my Wife's Dad passed . That's reason for Trip.
  4. Daniel Boone
    If Webbs right it'll do like Weeklies is showing. I know the warm November tool John uses generally is a good rule if Thumb but, not 100% guarantee as a few Odd out Year's and according to Webb this one has the makings of one of those. The ABNA Setup, Mongolian HP , +QBO and IOD along with a weak somewhat east based Nina may help force the typical Aleutian HP further east and poleward. It is also possible, if not probable, wave lengths changed later this Fall than usual due to CC or whatever therefore sending the November Correlation further in time. May sound a bit strange but, not out of the realm of possibility. Just some food for thought.
  5. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, looks like maybe a lt event Saturday Evening but, probably no more than a dusting to maybe an inch in spots. Another maybe mid week and the one you mentioned a bit bigger. Jeff is right about a possible big one at end of Pattern. That is a commin occurrence known as the Archambault Theory as most in here know about I think. I suspect this will be a back and forth Winter now so, may end up an Average Winter overall for a change. If there's more blocking that manifests against the grain then probably below average T's above Snow. Happy Thanksgiving Everyone ! May God bless you all.
  6. Daniel Boone
    Archambault Theory ftw ! Happy Thanksgiving Brother !
  7. Daniel Boone
    Happy Thanksgiving Everyone !
  8. Daniel Boone
    Yeah it was here too. The Valentines day Storm was 6-9" in Valley locations here . A Miller A. Several 2-4 inch deals in January, mainly Clippers as I recall.
  9. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, makes sense. That's probably what it's reacting to.
  10. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, Arctic air being shown draining farther west in Canada and Northern Rockies. Need a strong HP drop down in conjunction with a strong system to pull it SE. Some Models also showing Aleutian ridging by day 10 and trough moving westward. That's a Nina signature. Aleutian Ridge. Hopefully it winds up further east into Alaska. We need upstream blocking to establish and counter . JB used to say, without a block colds not a lock.
  11. Daniel Boone
    Back in earlier forecasting years that was one of the Teleconnections we used. Worked quite well.
  12. Daniel Boone
    It's 18z but, shows that possibility on the Table now. Not surprised really. That solution is clearly viable. Let's see how the other's and it do the next couple days before presuming we're headed that way though.
  13. Daniel Boone
    It was. We had a record snowy February in 2015. I recorded about 34 inches in Jonesville. Northern section's of Lee County over 50" !
  14. Daniel Boone
    I'd forgot about what year that happened in Atlanta but, yeah that was one heck of a cold January ! Feb 2015 had the big +TNH Pattern as well and was historic here snowfall and cold wise.
  15. Daniel Boone
    Exactly. That's what I had read up on too. Interesting. So, if Webb's right about the ABNA and the greater likelihood of a + TNH Lanina could work out fine for us.
  16. Daniel Boone
    Map looks to be showing hidson bay to Greenland blocking signature. Has Lp look near 50-50. That would probably need adjusted West of there if the SST'S are same then as now. Looks like an Aleutian Ridge. That may be or be further East. Should oscillate during Winter imo. due to the +QBO and ABNA if it manifests through the Winter at times.
  17. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, exactly what we want.
  18. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, not a good sign. Hopefully things revert.
  19. Daniel Boone
    If the " cold" pattern we're going into lessens in severity or longevity, that will be crucial in determining what kind of Winter ensues i.m.o.. Also, it is possible even if it lasts until late Month ala,1989. If I remember correctly, blocking broke down then and allowed the Western Ridge to suddenly come East. That MJO Plot is still worrisome as it usally Trump's other Drivers if they're not very prominent or if the MJO Wave itself is very weak low Amp.. As rehashed in earlier post, hopefully Webb is onto something and it plays out if you want at least an average Winter overal imo.
  20. Daniel Boone
    Check out Eric Webbs Write-up regarding how that might not work out like usual on X. The +TNH Pattern. The ABNA Connection. I'm not sold on it totally changing the MJO effects but, his research shows possibility.
  21. Daniel Boone
    Notice I said at time's. Also, the possibility of continual LP formation or strengthening off the NE and SE Provinces can act as a blocking mechanism and alter that eastward Ridge progression. That was one aspect of Feb 2015 . Continual LP development that worked in conjunction with the postive NAO in pulling Arctic air from the Arctic South into the Eastern States. Sort of opposite of the weird SER/-NAO Linkage.
  22. Daniel Boone
    Agree. On either pattern, whether the mild most of us were basically sold on or the possible one upcoming.
  23. Daniel Boone
    Exactly.
  24. Daniel Boone
    An excerpt from Webb on X : While there are many reasons this winter is starting out so cold in the Eastern US this year… Imo, the -EPO/+TNH pattern in early Dec is largely being driven by low frequency variability (not the MJO) from the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool. Namely, the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool is rectifying long-term observed changes since the early-mid 20th century that conflict with most climate model forecasts: the Indian & West Pacific oceans warming at a faster rate than the East-Central Pacific (in part as a response to AGW), which changes the downstream waveguide over the N Pacific & N America to resemble the +TNH pattern.
  25. Daniel Boone
    The Snow mizers looking at that blob in the Atlantic, lol
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