Daniel Boone

Makes more sense.

John, I finally checked my Stations Stats for the Month. As of midnight we are 3.8 below average Ts for December. So, right along with yours there.

Larry can provide you with stats but, actually Ph. 7 nearing 8 into the COD can work out great for the SE.

Great Post man ! Good analysis extrapolating on what he said and how you see February. Makes sense.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1869018465316593852?t=jocmMGKx3f6w0d13ARnfag&s=19 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1869020600770994313?t=4Zs54JnWc3Y_XVQapJTx6Q&s=19

Hopefully, it's wrong but, I don't know. The GFS/GEFS schooled the other's with the pattern before and through Christmas. They caved to it.

Yeah, sickening really. Other side of Pole below Average. CPF will bring that over if it sets back up but, by the time it mixes with all the warmth it'll probably just bring Temps down to Average wherever it does go. Hopefully, it does set back up and hang before upstream blocking set's up. Some indication the Strat may initiate that so, we definitely don't want blocking set up before cold gets reestablished as it would just lock in the mild air in Canada and the US.

I'll check my stats in a bit but, I'm thinking around -4 here as well .

By Months end, it looks like the Month will Average warmer than Average once again. As Carvers alluded to above, the cold shot Friday and Saturday will keep us below for a few days. Strong warming commences just after Christmas that should push us above. So, really not alot above but...

Really, never happens anymore. Many moons ago it occasionally did .

Cohen noted in his write-up that Canadian strat. warming is being advertised. That happened last January and worked against us. He's saying he expects it to dump the Cold into Europe. Hopefully, it as is the case with some SSW'S does opposite this time.

My bad. I left out forecasted temps for Siberia. Actually shows in the EPs Run the negative departures there then.

Cross Polar Flow is expected to set back up in early January so will rapidly cool Canada back down from the enormous cross country Chinook blowtorch induced Temps. -100 Temps in Siberia which Is below average even for there. If we tap that it may balance out to Normal with the mixing once it engulfs North America, if it does.

We need the CPF to setup in a way to pull the air from Siberia instead of Russia. Siberian Express ftw !!

Agree man. We're off to the best start in a long time. 3.6 inches here so far. 2.6" of that fell Nov. 21-22. November above average. December if finished as is is below average Snow. The Average being 3". Back in the 50's and 60's the Avg Annual Snowfall for Pennington gap was nearly 2 Feet. Nov.Avg 2"+ Dec. Avg was 5"+, January 7+", Feb. 6+ and March 2+. and I think KTRI was 18". The nowaday Average in Pennington gap is about 15 inches if measured correctly and officially*. KTRI 11" I think last I saw. I used to have a Sheet with the Averages from 1950-80. Of course, much of Lee County averages more as most of the County is more elevated than Pennington gap. Same as much of the Tri City area does more than KTRI. Also, Snowfall was actually more than what was recorded back then as measurement wasn't nearly as precise. They would measure generally after the Snow had ended and at a single level location. If the Snow fell overnight, they'd measure upon rising the next Morning. Averages have really declined alot over the Year's.

Yeah, that's what I'm thinking for the Winter. Basically a back and forth probably close to Average one for a change. I suspect the Pac Ridge to be on average further East than the typical Nina and more +TNH Pattern. The MJO may not be a big player if it continues low Amp regardless of Phase.

Hopefully not the case for Winter weather Lovers or if so, it takes another route as SSW'S sometimes do .

It is projected rather low Amp so if realized as such, it wouldn't take alot for another Driver to negate or mute it's effects.

Yeah, that looks plenty good enough. Hopefully, the GFS is incorrect in the magnitude and expansive area of above normal Temps in North America preceding this output. We definitely don't want a good pattern be ruined by not enough cold coming down from Source Region. We should be fine as long as CPF gets established even if Canada is torched ala GFS as it should cool rapidly. It looks as though some blocking is trying to take shape in this Output as well. We really would want that after CPF fills in the cold as we don't want a 01-02 situation.

Yeah, hopefully we go low amp 8 and COD . Research shows, as I think you even showed results and findings awhile back that showed that a the best for the SE.

Cross Polar Flow.

If CPF sets back up( and it should) it should fairly quickly. I have witnessed several times however, to where the Pattern set up perfectly for a Snowstorm but not enough cold air came down and we got cold Rain, even at higher elevations. So, it does hurt if Canada gets scoured, make no mistake about it. Chinook's are a normal occurrence but, some don't last long or don't completely scour most of Canada of Cold. Agree on what's mild in Canada is still cold here. Alot depends in how much above the cold source is and how expansive. Also how much above it is in the US down to us. Cold up there, once Chinook's subside automatically begins to get colder even without CAA from CPF for obvious reasons. CPF is what you want for rapid refilling. This is basically what most of us already know but thought I'd bring it up due to reference and conversation. The Winter of 01-02 comes to mind as an example of a depleted Cold Source as Canada was scoured and totally ruined us on several chances for significant Snow. The good thing this Winter imo is, strong HLB actually blocked CPF that Winter . So, that shouldn't be a problem this Winter.

Yeah, other Suite's were right. We were all hoping the Euro would score a Coup.

Yeah, so far the back and forth, average type Winter looks to be on Track. The JMA is showing a Plains/Ms Valley mean Trough position for January. The other's a bit East. That bodes well for us if realized. It makes sense given the West and North Pac SST'S now. The possibility of a further West Trough is there but, depending on the Nina Strength and position, imo, in whether the mean position transitions to there I think. There is the risk of what seems to be a possibility of a far western trough along with a far eastern one. Ridge between. Definitely don't want that. Talk about Canadian Chinook, whew ! The good thing is that's unlikely. I agree with you on the Chinook's Carvers. You just don't won't what I alluded to last paragraph as then it would be overboard, lol . Occasional and short duration we can deal with.

Yeah, the position is further East. The warm anomalies is along immediate Coastal NC from what I can tell. The blue shaded area makes it appear further West. Any way you slice it, the Trough is suggested to be East of a typical Nina . If the current situation is any indication, it may be further East and be an Eastern based Trough. A possibility too.