Daniel Boone

Extremely heavy, convective one here now. Visibility under 100 yards. Large Graupel and Flakes.

Last band went through and had between a half to three quarter's of an inch on grass, raised surfaces and Snow Board. Sun came out briefly and Temp rose to 34 and melted it in exposed area's. Was hoping would of stayed Overcast.

Hello Cincinnati!!! Big time Snow!

Heavy burst now.

Steady lt to moderate Snow here with a quarter to half inch so far. 31 degrees.

CMC in the middle on Target.

Yeah, think the GFS SE bias it used to have caused alot of that but, still the north trend seems to happen more than not. Maybe just not to the degree it used to .

Many , especially younger Gen Mets tend to do the Climatology thing instead of looking over Data and forecasting from that even if it is a rare occurrence such as an Ice Storm. At least mention the possibility several days out and implement it moreso if Data continues showing it as we get Close to the Event.

Yeah, couple things fouled the projected long range pattern up from what was being advertised. The Western Ridge, in my mind, being the biggest.

I'm pulling for you guys over there. I hate when all around gets snow and leaves an area in a void.

Agree.

Yeah, timing of it coming out did too but, larger synoptics plays a Part in that.

What really hurt is what John and I touched on in the Tn Valley sub, The Western Ridge has nearly broke down and is displaced too far West . Models originally had that centered over the Rockies. That allows this System to climb further North than it would have west of us. If snow pack existed to our North the Baroclinic Zone would set up further South and the Storm would probably travel farther south and we'd still got hit as well. So, couple flaws fouled us up with this one. I'm with you in still being hopefull.. Just not as enthusiastic of an old fashioned January, Winterwise, as I was.

Not now but, they will later. No issue for them.

Yep. Product of what you mentioned earlier. Western Ridge Placement.

Exactly. If that Ridge had stayed where it was originally projected we were golden.

Looking like at least another healthy Rain event for the area.

Some accumulation above 2000 feet on Stone Mountain just north of Jonesville. Snowcover lowers the further west on the Mountain. Looks like down to around 1700 ft above Ewing in the White Rocks area of the Mountain. Probably an inch or so above 2500 there with a heavy dusting to half inch down to 1700 ft.

NAM is showing confluence shifting east with each run now though. If it's right, probably can chalk up it not coming further South. Had the Storm came sooner we'd got it. Had it came a day or so later , it would of been forced South by Canadian HP coming down and we'd likely been hit as well. Just bad timing for us.

If those ensemble depictions were to be realized about 100 miles further South than shown we'd be in great shape. Looks sorta like the highest expected averaged out area is inline with the Track of this upcoming Sunday System.

The sad thing is, I've saw this play out like that quite a bit over my relic lifetime. One misses just to our North, the other South and then generally cold/ dry with a few flurries or dustings then warms up enough that the next big system is Rain. We wound up in the Screw zone those Winter's. The early to mid 70's come to mind. Hopefully, not the Case this time but , sadly looking like a possibility. On a positive note for you folks on that side of the Mountains, you all faired better than us during those times as the Southern Systems would graze you all and give some accumulation and Cad helped with the other some. I

Some moderate to heavy snow falling here now . Not sticking as Temp is 35.

That GFS run was just terrible if you like snow in the Great Valley. More along the Gulf Coast . Kind of laughable in that it has St Louis getting about 4 Feet ! Knoxville getting hammered with a dusting.

Sure hope not but would be our luck. I'd rather no big system having come out of the SW and have 1-3 or 2-4" Clippers than have it come along and piss on us and dump North and NW of us while shoving everything way South after passing. Hopefully we get in a Pattern that produces at least 2-3 Clippers from the NS after this debacle and the next way deep south Storm. If not, cold and dry until the pattern breaks. There's still hope with this one. We need Canadian HP to drop down faster or the 50-50 to create more confluence and force the LP from coming all the way up to Tennessee but to slide East across Alabama and Georgia.

Yeah. Seems it's slower solution is causing it to estimate a bit of a SER pump up and pull up that extreme warmth.