Jump to content

Daniel Boone

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,933

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Daniel Boone

  1. Daniel Boone
    Exactly! Absolutely right on Point with everything Bob !!!
  2. Daniel Boone
    Hopefully so.
  3. Daniel Boone
    Now that's what we need !
  4. Daniel Boone
    As of now, the NPAC is much more favorable than it was just a Month ago. Cooled substantially in the WPAC and warmed in the GOA. This should help with the -EPO as it should shunt the Nina augmented Pac Ridge further East. How long those cooler SST'S remain in the WPAC is up for debate but at any rate should be a good while imo.
  5. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, very cold January that Year. Several Arctic fronts as well as Miller A Snowfalls as you alluded to.
  6. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, they look to want to make a - EPO pretty much a Staple. That correlates with the Nina PAC Ridge being further East than typical Nina Climo. Makes sense given the SST Structure out there now imo. + TNH would be pretty prevalent with possible over the pole ridging at times. CPF would be likely at higher than average intervals. The +QBO is probably why no real blocking is being advertised. Strange in that you generally want a -AO for a cold Winter but, with the right setup, a positive AO in Tandem with a -EPO and tall PNA Ridge can deliver strong CPF.
  7. Daniel Boone
    This goes along with the optimistic part. https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1866138638439817444?t=-lY6aNmOwoknGqFMqGVMiw&s=19
  8. Daniel Boone
    Models are picking up on the MJO now projected to go through the warm Phases through the last half of the Month. Moreover, the Nina is strengthening so, I suspect that will show more in the Models, particularly the LR . The, at least temporary, cooling in the WPAC should help maybe alter the Nina augmented Ridge or align it further East , if the Nina gets strong enough to enhance that Ridge. Some are saying we are in a Classic Nina Pattern now. I don't completely agree with that. Sure, there's some aspects but, other's not. Roundy over on X for example, argued the point it is. If you look at a typical Nina Pattern for early Winter this is mighty close . So, could be the Course we're taking. Hopefully, the Nina won't strengthen alot as we more than likely won't get blocking ala 10-11 or 95-96 to alter its effects. Still hope for the + TNH Pattern to manifest more than usual. So, a little less enthusiastic but, not unoptimistic.
  9. Daniel Boone
    Thankfully,we got a soaking Rain here in the far Southwestern part of Virginia. 1.04".
  10. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, very similar to that Event.
  11. Daniel Boone
    Agree.
  12. Daniel Boone
    Had a feeling Models would bring that back.
  13. Daniel Boone
    18z GEFS looked terrible 10-15 day. I disagree with the Run as it just looks too much a jumbled up mess. It has nearly all of Canada and the US in high heights, torch . Looks like the Heat Mizer made that run.
  14. Daniel Boone
    That's great ! Alot of folks aren't these Days.
  15. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, that Pendulum I alluded to earlier. Depending on how long this upcoming warmup lasts and the cold returns and lasts I think should be pretty indicative to which way we turn ; the colder or warmer Set.
  16. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, that will enhance the Snowcover on the Lee sides.
  17. Daniel Boone
    True. The Nino look is a bit of a Puzzle. The Study did find that the Nina augmented Pac Ridge is shunted Eastward toward the GOA with the Pattern so, that would allow for possible Aleutian LP Development. As we know, typically you get that in a Nino. As far as a STJ , the Nina is weak so we should have that to work with some but, not a formidable one like in a Nino. This Winter just may be one of the odd out, off kilter One's that causes alot of busted Forecasts.
  18. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, research by Webb showed that correlation a couple weeks ago. Study showed it appeared to augment a + TNH.
  19. Daniel Boone
    Verbatim that would be some heavy snow with that set-up.
  20. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, it would work out to a back and forth Winter pretty good. A trough axis that oscillates from the Rockies/Plains to the Apps and occasionally further East can really work out in our favor with more gulf involvement as I think you and I touched on recently. That should keep the SER squelched enough for some Winter Storm Opportunities. I'm still not sold on next week. Hopefully, as John alluded to, thing's will become more clear cut. Thanks for the wellwishes my friend. We made it back home last night. Unfortunately, I came down with a Cold while there. Our Church is having a Dinner over in your neck of the woods tomorrow so, hopefully I'm up to it.
  21. Daniel Boone
    Actually, some decent year's in there snowfall wise here in the Southern Apps.. about even for above and below average.
  22. Daniel Boone
    That looks more like a possibility. Other looked like it moved Siberia to the lower 48.
  23. Daniel Boone
    Tbh, probably a pretty close call either way. The Pendulum could swing one way or the other.
  24. Daniel Boone
    The Seasonals factor ENSO in the heaviest . Depending on how much influence it has will determine whether that Trough is there or further East imo. . The Aleutian Ridge a good example here. Tilt that thing further East into the GOA .
  25. Daniel Boone
    Zilch way up here near Charles town WV. Heard around an inch back home with some area's of Lee County 2 inches.
×
×
  • Create New...