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Daniel Boone

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Everything posted by Daniel Boone

  1. Daniel Boone
    Yep. Remember them well. Feb. 2015 snowiest on Record here. Strong + TNH Pattern.
  2. Daniel Boone
    I may even make good bet on that happening. Par for the course , lol
  3. Daniel Boone
    Hadn't looked at 12z Runs . Next week has took the usual turn against any real cold getting here. Hopefully, they're off and revert back but, wouldn't hold my breath.
  4. Daniel Boone
    The good thing is this 40's Rainfall will have cooled the ground considerably.
  5. Daniel Boone
    True. I think most probably don't remember that.
  6. Daniel Boone
    I'm thinking more along the lines of a good upslope Event. Would be nice to get a phase with heavy backside Snow with added Upslope but, as of now it just doesn't look to be the Case. Need better timed alignment. Still plenty of waffling and adjusting time though.
  7. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, looking like some changes may be in store with the recent changes in the SST'S out there.
  8. Daniel Boone
    There was an upgrade yesterday I believe. Whether that had any effect or not we don't really know.
  9. Daniel Boone
    Where's Roundy, uh, snowman19 ?
  10. Daniel Boone
    Good looking Pattern. Be nice to see December -Feb.
  11. Daniel Boone
    A +TNH Pattern is looking like a decent possibility now due to SST changes in the IO and Pacific along with the +QBO. If we get the against the grain -NAO along with a +TNH Pattern it may have adverse effects. It would probably cut off cross polar flow associated with the TNH Pattern. It could also keep us in a constant cold Pattern with what cold makes it's down locks in. So, we just don't know for sure. Something to ponder . Maybe Chuck or someone that has the patience can do some digging and come up with a time when we had both in place. The last several from what I recall that were +TNH had a positive NAO. 2014 and 2015 come to mind. Of course, the +TNH -NAO hookup is basically a bridge over top so I really don't see alot of difference than that, imo.
  12. Daniel Boone
    My thoughts are right on Target with yours. Still leaning mild overall but, not the record warmest that I originally feared. The Indian Ocean continues to warm again so may mess up the MJO. Kind of a Paradox of sorts regarding that with the SST Setup as a whole along with the +QBO as historical Data suggests that Tends to augment the Pac Ridge more poleward and thereby producing the +TNH Pattern. The -PDO has weakened considerably recently, whether short term or long we don't know. So, that all is a positive irt what things originally looked like. One thing that is really something to ponder on is the NAO. As it stands, it looks to be what may play in to give us our early Season snow possibility . This feature, if defies typical driver response, may actually work against us if we get a +TNH this Winter. We had a Positive NAO during the heavy duty previous +TNH Patterns. Open for discussion as would be great to get all Opinions on this. Could be a - NAO would just lock in the Cold ( constant) but not allow the CPF Arctic cold to be around as it would be blocked.
  13. Daniel Boone
    That would be the ultimate Lift to help us through the Winter if it turns out a Dud. However, that may not be the Case as some rather subtle signs are pointing to maybe a decent Winter . The +TNH Pattern I alluded to as a possibility awhile back has gained some momentum and attention as a real Possibility due to some Driver's leaning in a supportive direction. Webber on X has a good explanation regarding this.
  14. Daniel Boone
    Good catch but, noones going to buy into that as even a remote possibility due to the fact it went from extremely mild November to a gradual turn colder through December and a cold and snowy Eastern US January through mid March and in a different Climate Era. I wonder what the QBO and IOD was then ?.. Of course CC would be the greatest argument against such an outcome now.
  15. Daniel Boone
    It is really strange.
  16. Daniel Boone
    Ridge bridged over. If cold enough, that can yield some decent Snowfalls . The thing is, the PV is projected to continue strengthening so, unless there's a secondary lobe it'll keep much of the real cold air wrapped around it. Hopefully the projected Pattern shown comes to fruition and we can get just enough cold to get the Job done.
  17. Daniel Boone
    Sure looks that way . Used to Media Propaganda could be dealt with legally in some instances but, not since 2013 I believe, when the Law was dropped.
  18. Daniel Boone
    Kind of looks like the same map each time. Lol
  19. Daniel Boone
    If that continues it could be a game changer.
  20. Daniel Boone
    Gotta get the SST'S in the right order. Hopefully, we'll see that happen soon.
  21. Daniel Boone
    Rather Ironic .
  22. Daniel Boone
    That would work and also possibly build a bridge over the Top and suppress that lobe further South.
  23. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, the GFS is best about detecting a change at range first anymore hands down.
  24. Daniel Boone
    It's possible. If the EPO is able to extend over the Top and dislodge the Cold and if timed right can drop into the Eastern States. Models are hinting at a -NAO to a degree as well. Odds are low because of the strongly negative PDO and +QBO however ,if you look at it historically. Of course, last Winter went against what would be expected much of the time so, who knows. Sadly, imo, the -PDO is what fouled it up. We need strong cooling of those western PAC SST'S first and foremost and warming in the GOA. In the Atlantic we need cooling of the SST'S off Newfoundland to help support a 50-50 and -NAO. Just this Antique Forecasters Opinion.
  25. Daniel Boone
    The -PDO is the big Dog right now.
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