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Daniel Boone

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Everything posted by Daniel Boone

  1. Daniel Boone
    Heck yeah !!!
  2. Daniel Boone
    Dang ! 3 feet at Snowshoe. I'll take our 5-6 " and be satisfied.
  3. Daniel Boone
    Enso right now is very weak at best as far as a Driver . The -PDO has been the big thorn , particularly the extreme warm west Pac SST'S. That area has cooled considerably recently. The Nina is finally barely a Nina and is strengthening some now but, shouldn't make it past weak. Also, a bit east based as well. So, that's much better than what it looked to be just a couple months ago. The IO is once again warming. That doesn't bode well for the MJO but, there is research that shows an effect on the Pac Ridge in conjunction with a +QBO in forcing it more Poleward of which would lend to a +TNH Pattern. Hopefully, this works out if you want a surprise cold/ snowy Winter. The +QBO does tend to war against Greenland blocking. But, a +TNH can get the job done ala FEB 2015.
  4. Daniel Boone
    I like him but, I think many outlooks, as well as his, were prepared before the recent positive changes in the Pac. I think maybe a couple have alluded to that with an Appendage in that things may be better or follow the outlier colder Analogues like 2013-14. The way things were it looked as though we had a good shot at the warmest on Record. Hopefully the Pacific becomes more favorable. Probably won't get much help from the NAO once the QBO goes more positive. Hopefully, a +TNH Pattern pops and does the trick.
  5. Daniel Boone
    His, as well as many of other's were written up before the positive changes in the Pacific. He may of added an appendage regarding that, I've not read it through. So, there are some better odds at seeing more in the Snowfall dept as well as Temp departures if the changes in the Pac continue and the WPO and EPO respond accordingly. The IO still may be a Thorn but, that may be countered with a +QBO in +TNH augmentation. La nina is weak at best although looking to gain a little traction and maybe be more easy based. If weak , there still could be somewhat of a STJ. So, that is a plus providing enough cold comes down.
  6. Daniel Boone
    Our first guess on what may transpire with the upslope deal may be right on target after all buddy.
  7. Daniel Boone
    Yeah true, lol. Was pondering over that earlier and was curious to whether ensembles changed much but, didn't feel up to checking. Did however, read a little in the main forum and they're all basically buying into today's warmer Model Runs. I guess the way things have gone for so long it causes most to lean to the warmer outcomes.
  8. Daniel Boone
    Yep. Remember them well. Feb. 2015 snowiest on Record here. Strong + TNH Pattern.
  9. Daniel Boone
    I may even make good bet on that happening. Par for the course , lol
  10. Daniel Boone
    Hadn't looked at 12z Runs . Next week has took the usual turn against any real cold getting here. Hopefully, they're off and revert back but, wouldn't hold my breath.
  11. Daniel Boone
    The good thing is this 40's Rainfall will have cooled the ground considerably.
  12. Daniel Boone
    True. I think most probably don't remember that.
  13. Daniel Boone
    I'm thinking more along the lines of a good upslope Event. Would be nice to get a phase with heavy backside Snow with added Upslope but, as of now it just doesn't look to be the Case. Need better timed alignment. Still plenty of waffling and adjusting time though.
  14. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, looking like some changes may be in store with the recent changes in the SST'S out there.
  15. Daniel Boone
    There was an upgrade yesterday I believe. Whether that had any effect or not we don't really know.
  16. Daniel Boone
    Where's Roundy, uh, snowman19 ?
  17. Daniel Boone
    Good looking Pattern. Be nice to see December -Feb.
  18. Daniel Boone
    A +TNH Pattern is looking like a decent possibility now due to SST changes in the IO and Pacific along with the +QBO. If we get the against the grain -NAO along with a +TNH Pattern it may have adverse effects. It would probably cut off cross polar flow associated with the TNH Pattern. It could also keep us in a constant cold Pattern with what cold makes it's down locks in. So, we just don't know for sure. Something to ponder . Maybe Chuck or someone that has the patience can do some digging and come up with a time when we had both in place. The last several from what I recall that were +TNH had a positive NAO. 2014 and 2015 come to mind. Of course, the +TNH -NAO hookup is basically a bridge over top so I really don't see alot of difference than that, imo.
  19. Daniel Boone
    My thoughts are right on Target with yours. Still leaning mild overall but, not the record warmest that I originally feared. The Indian Ocean continues to warm again so may mess up the MJO. Kind of a Paradox of sorts regarding that with the SST Setup as a whole along with the +QBO as historical Data suggests that Tends to augment the Pac Ridge more poleward and thereby producing the +TNH Pattern. The -PDO has weakened considerably recently, whether short term or long we don't know. So, that all is a positive irt what things originally looked like. One thing that is really something to ponder on is the NAO. As it stands, it looks to be what may play in to give us our early Season snow possibility . This feature, if defies typical driver response, may actually work against us if we get a +TNH this Winter. We had a Positive NAO during the heavy duty previous +TNH Patterns. Open for discussion as would be great to get all Opinions on this. Could be a - NAO would just lock in the Cold ( constant) but not allow the CPF Arctic cold to be around as it would be blocked.
  20. Daniel Boone
    That would be the ultimate Lift to help us through the Winter if it turns out a Dud. However, that may not be the Case as some rather subtle signs are pointing to maybe a decent Winter . The +TNH Pattern I alluded to as a possibility awhile back has gained some momentum and attention as a real Possibility due to some Driver's leaning in a supportive direction. Webber on X has a good explanation regarding this.
  21. Daniel Boone
    Good catch but, noones going to buy into that as even a remote possibility due to the fact it went from extremely mild November to a gradual turn colder through December and a cold and snowy Eastern US January through mid March and in a different Climate Era. I wonder what the QBO and IOD was then ?.. Of course CC would be the greatest argument against such an outcome now.
  22. Daniel Boone
    It is really strange.
  23. Daniel Boone
    Ridge bridged over. If cold enough, that can yield some decent Snowfalls . The thing is, the PV is projected to continue strengthening so, unless there's a secondary lobe it'll keep much of the real cold air wrapped around it. Hopefully the projected Pattern shown comes to fruition and we can get just enough cold to get the Job done.
  24. Daniel Boone
    Sure looks that way . Used to Media Propaganda could be dealt with legally in some instances but, not since 2013 I believe, when the Law was dropped.
  25. Daniel Boone
    Kind of looks like the same map each time. Lol
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