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Daniel Boone

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  1. Daniel Boone
    MJO Ph 6 stall. GFS keying on that.
  2. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, it's likely seeing the MJO stalling in Ph 6 and crawling into 7 later. That's what it's solution looks like. If it were to be right, it's shut the blinds for a long while.
  3. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, the GFS is likely "thinking" the MJO is stalling in p6 and gradually getting into 7 later. That's what it's output's look like to me.
  4. Daniel Boone
    You've hit on what the problem is I believe. I think the GFS incorporates the MJO as one of it's top "Ingredient" ( can't think of the proper word so..lol) in it's Medium Range Equations.
  5. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, it's as if it traded places with the Euro in holding energy back in the SW. As you alluded to, that can and does happen sometimes. Hopefully it doesn't and if it does, blocking will still keep us in the Trough and that could act as a southern branch feature spitting disturbances along the low Road. That works out good sometimes too.
  6. Daniel Boone
    Lr uses enso greatly but, medium I don't think so. It's output does look nina though
  7. Daniel Boone
    That western ridging tendency is what I like too buddy. That's one of my reasons I believe January will be a cold one overall . There's still that worry something akin to late December 1989 occurs. +PNA November and December. The Ridge suddenly got shoved East at the very end of December and never returned West. I don't know if there was any real concrete proof of what caused a wholesale 500 mb shift that never went back really at all. Although, it did by April as I recall several elevated Snowfalls then. Hopefully, everything pans out for us.
  8. Daniel Boone
    Yep. I remember that Study by Wes. Miss him posting regularly. He's one of the best.
  9. Daniel Boone
    Good, unbiased work as usual Larry. Much appreciated!
  10. Daniel Boone
    Yep. Kalikimikimaka (sp.?) is Hawaiian's way of saying Merry Christmas to you. Lol
  11. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, 12z GFS went to a Cutter. Not surprised as it'll probably throw out every possible Solution until Game time. I'm not getting my hopes too high and being completely confident until around the 28- 30th or so and 80% of all Ensemble Members are showing the near perfect Pattern, as have been burned too many times. Not being a Debbie downer just a Realist. I do think we are in for a colder January than we've had in quite some time but, still may be back and forth. If blocking does materialize then those extended very cold / snowy solutions may very well verify. The +QBO is what has me skiddish irt that however.
  12. Daniel Boone
    33 for the high here. Pretty cold but not unusual.
  13. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, hopefully things come together and we wind up with a snowier than Average Winter for a change. Just lioking at Radar, had the Trough been 100-150 Statute Miles further west we'd still be getting a barage of lake enhanced Snow Showers. Upon second thought, lol, really, had the storm off the coast developed further West we'd be getting that. Of course one could argue the point that that's a product of too far esst Trough.
  14. Daniel Boone
    A bit surprised as woke up to about a half inch on the board and grass this Morning.
  15. Daniel Boone
    Exactly Carvers !
  16. Daniel Boone
    CPC had some cold Analogues in the Package. A couple not great but, the rest were. 95-96 and 84-85 in there as couple Tops. Only bad one was 01-02.
  17. Daniel Boone
    Busted Forecast with this one for sure ! I was hoping for at least a half inch. West Virginia came out great. It appears Models had the precip estimated to be further Southwest. Also, upslope dynamics not as good as was projected. Steeper lapse rates needed. As John alluded to, lower level moisture just not reaching the DGZ.
  18. Daniel Boone
    Icy here now as well. Freezing Mist has everything coated in Ice. A few stray rather small flakes mixed in. 29.6 currently.
  19. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, that is the fear with the Pattern. The Troughiness we've been getting has really been too far East so far. We really need at least some blocking, NAO or WAR imo to help back the Trough with what liiks to possibly be a default Winter Pattern. Could be, if Nina exerts it's affects more later on it will actually help position the Trough further West.
  20. Daniel Boone
    An off and on mix of lt rain and graupel started here around 1:30. Turned to all light snow (graupel and flakes) about an hour ago. More of light flurries currently. Heavier to my east on Wallen Ridge about a mile south of Pennington. Almost whited out eyeballing from here . About a mile and a half as crow flies. High was 38. Currently 30.5.
  21. Daniel Boone
    Makes more sense.
  22. Daniel Boone
    John, I finally checked my Stations Stats for the Month. As of midnight we are 3.8 below average Ts for December. So, right along with yours there.
  23. Daniel Boone
    Larry can provide you with stats but, actually Ph. 7 nearing 8 into the COD can work out great for the SE.
  24. Daniel Boone
    Great Post man ! Good analysis extrapolating on what he said and how you see February. Makes sense.
  25. Daniel Boone
    https://x.com/webberweather/status/1869018465316593852?t=jocmMGKx3f6w0d13ARnfag&s=19 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1869020600770994313?t=4Zs54JnWc3Y_XVQapJTx6Q&s=19
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