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Daniel Boone

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Everything posted by Daniel Boone

  1. Daniel Boone
    Exactly Carvers !
  2. Daniel Boone
    CPC had some cold Analogues in the Package. A couple not great but, the rest were. 95-96 and 84-85 in there as couple Tops. Only bad one was 01-02.
  3. Daniel Boone
    Busted Forecast with this one for sure ! I was hoping for at least a half inch. West Virginia came out great. It appears Models had the precip estimated to be further Southwest. Also, upslope dynamics not as good as was projected. Steeper lapse rates needed. As John alluded to, lower level moisture just not reaching the DGZ.
  4. Daniel Boone
    Icy here now as well. Freezing Mist has everything coated in Ice. A few stray rather small flakes mixed in. 29.6 currently.
  5. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, that is the fear with the Pattern. The Troughiness we've been getting has really been too far East so far. We really need at least some blocking, NAO or WAR imo to help back the Trough with what liiks to possibly be a default Winter Pattern. Could be, if Nina exerts it's affects more later on it will actually help position the Trough further West.
  6. Daniel Boone
    An off and on mix of lt rain and graupel started here around 1:30. Turned to all light snow (graupel and flakes) about an hour ago. More of light flurries currently. Heavier to my east on Wallen Ridge about a mile south of Pennington. Almost whited out eyeballing from here . About a mile and a half as crow flies. High was 38. Currently 30.5.
  7. Daniel Boone
    Makes more sense.
  8. Daniel Boone
    John, I finally checked my Stations Stats for the Month. As of midnight we are 3.8 below average Ts for December. So, right along with yours there.
  9. Daniel Boone
    Larry can provide you with stats but, actually Ph. 7 nearing 8 into the COD can work out great for the SE.
  10. Daniel Boone
    Great Post man ! Good analysis extrapolating on what he said and how you see February. Makes sense.
  11. Daniel Boone
    https://x.com/webberweather/status/1869018465316593852?t=jocmMGKx3f6w0d13ARnfag&s=19 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1869020600770994313?t=4Zs54JnWc3Y_XVQapJTx6Q&s=19
  12. Daniel Boone
    Hopefully, it's wrong but, I don't know. The GFS/GEFS schooled the other's with the pattern before and through Christmas. They caved to it.
  13. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, sickening really. Other side of Pole below Average. CPF will bring that over if it sets back up but, by the time it mixes with all the warmth it'll probably just bring Temps down to Average wherever it does go. Hopefully, it does set back up and hang before upstream blocking set's up. Some indication the Strat may initiate that so, we definitely don't want blocking set up before cold gets reestablished as it would just lock in the mild air in Canada and the US.
  14. Daniel Boone
    I'll check my stats in a bit but, I'm thinking around -4 here as well .
  15. Daniel Boone
    By Months end, it looks like the Month will Average warmer than Average once again. As Carvers alluded to above, the cold shot Friday and Saturday will keep us below for a few days. Strong warming commences just after Christmas that should push us above. So, really not alot above but...
  16. Daniel Boone
    Really, never happens anymore. Many moons ago it occasionally did .
  17. Daniel Boone
    Cohen noted in his write-up that Canadian strat. warming is being advertised. That happened last January and worked against us. He's saying he expects it to dump the Cold into Europe. Hopefully, it as is the case with some SSW'S does opposite this time.
  18. Daniel Boone
    My bad. I left out forecasted temps for Siberia. Actually shows in the EPs Run the negative departures there then.
  19. Daniel Boone
    Cross Polar Flow is expected to set back up in early January so will rapidly cool Canada back down from the enormous cross country Chinook blowtorch induced Temps. -100 Temps in Siberia which Is below average even for there. If we tap that it may balance out to Normal with the mixing once it engulfs North America, if it does.
  20. Daniel Boone
    We need the CPF to setup in a way to pull the air from Siberia instead of Russia. Siberian Express ftw !!
  21. Daniel Boone
    Agree man. We're off to the best start in a long time. 3.6 inches here so far. 2.6" of that fell Nov. 21-22. November above average. December if finished as is is below average Snow. The Average being 3". Back in the 50's and 60's the Avg Annual Snowfall for Pennington gap was nearly 2 Feet. Nov.Avg 2"+ Dec. Avg was 5"+, January 7+", Feb. 6+ and March 2+. and I think KTRI was 18". The nowaday Average in Pennington gap is about 15 inches if measured correctly and officially*. KTRI 11" I think last I saw. I used to have a Sheet with the Averages from 1950-80. Of course, much of Lee County averages more as most of the County is more elevated than Pennington gap. Same as much of the Tri City area does more than KTRI. Also, Snowfall was actually more than what was recorded back then as measurement wasn't nearly as precise. They would measure generally after the Snow had ended and at a single level location. If the Snow fell overnight, they'd measure upon rising the next Morning. Averages have really declined alot over the Year's.
  22. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, that's what I'm thinking for the Winter. Basically a back and forth probably close to Average one for a change. I suspect the Pac Ridge to be on average further East than the typical Nina and more +TNH Pattern. The MJO may not be a big player if it continues low Amp regardless of Phase.
  23. Daniel Boone
    Hopefully not the case for Winter weather Lovers or if so, it takes another route as SSW'S sometimes do .
  24. Daniel Boone
    It is projected rather low Amp so if realized as such, it wouldn't take alot for another Driver to negate or mute it's effects.
  25. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, that looks plenty good enough. Hopefully, the GFS is incorrect in the magnitude and expansive area of above normal Temps in North America preceding this output. We definitely don't want a good pattern be ruined by not enough cold coming down from Source Region. We should be fine as long as CPF gets established even if Canada is torched ala GFS as it should cool rapidly. It looks as though some blocking is trying to take shape in this Output as well. We really would want that after CPF fills in the cold as we don't want a 01-02 situation.
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