Daniel Boone
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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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Not surprised. Originally the Forecast ftom MRX was for precip started mixed Tonight then today they took that out. Temps in upper 30's here now with an 18 Dp. So, precip should easily start as frozen.
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I agree and if ever there's a chance at a big dog, this is it. Also, climatology is on our side as far as big dog's; February/March.. We'll look at it from a more positive Standpoint Buddy.
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A bit late for prolonged un the SE anyway. However, with the MJO in Cold Phases there's room for some cold and Snow chances in the upper SE.
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The MJO will be going through cold phases through months end. Guidance has the AO going from strongly Negative to positive. So, a bit of conflict regarding staying cold or going warm.
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Yeah, saved us from any major flooding thankfully. The Saturday Deal could be another Story though.
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I think they have an "in house" Model.
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What discrepancy ?
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That's what she said
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1.95" here so far . Temp. 36.7. The High was 37.
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1.95 here so far and still Raining.
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With a slow progression through phase 8 and a negative AO expect a couple big Storms from the Mid South to the upper SE by Months end. Models should begin to show these more prominent within the next 5 Days or so.
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An inch and a half of Rainfall since Midnight now.
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Yep. So, all the local forecast Outlets and the NWS won't show the real cold in their 10 Day Outlooks. GFS Based.
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Started as Sleet and snow mix here as I was turning in last night. Northern Lee and Wise County reported measurable Snow this Morning. From what I can tell on the order of 1-4 inches. Raining there now however. Around an inch of Rain so far here as of now. Heaviest just to my west in SEKY.
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Some good one's in there.
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Heavy Sleet being reported on the Plateau in Tennessee now.
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Don't think Model's had any Frozen Precip projected for there. So, could be a warning for areas further North and East.
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Wouldn't be surprised to see more Snow involved in the Equation late Week. Still will likely be flooding this week but, not all looks to be Rain now.
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Yeah, going to be absolutely brutal !
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GFS showing several inches of Snow/sleet for here. 7 inches progged for Wise. 2 inch line down to Claiborne County on 18z Run. HRRR usually performs poorly here. Under does Snowfall Amounts here in Lee County 90% of the Time. Has a known warm bias from here down to Johns neck of the Woods.
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Grounds still saturated up here.
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MJO Ph 8 augmenting a +PNA. Blocking also appears to be getting situated in a better location as well.
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Excellent Post and explanation! The great Feb 2015 Pattern featured a solid +NAO BUT, a continual Parade of LP's kept training into SE Canada that in a sense mimicked a standing 50-50. Shows how important that is.
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Yeah, need that +PNA to pop . Big time business if it does enough. Feb 2015 had a strong +PNA and + NAO.
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Looks to be weakening. Hopefully that's the case .
