Daniel Boone
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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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It didn't in January. Of all the Analogues used for this Winter broken down to the colder one's, from what I can find none had a shift in the PDO from negative to positive like this one. So, as with what happened in January there's a shot at later Feb and March not going as Analogues and Nina Climo indicates. For starter's , we have a formidable STJ of which Nina Climo says there shouldn't be. The MJO is what to watch regarding the greater anomalous outcome for the SE for the most part imo..
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Continues to waver. Having trouble with ENSO and MJO.
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Hopefully it's too far north. The AI and CMC are. 12Z GFS was. If this is right...what a slap in the face.
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Good one man !
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The sudden change in the PAC SST's I think is the main Culprit. I wondee if any of the Analog Year's had that to happen.?.
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Ensembles flipped cold in LR. As was discussed last Week, the MJO not stalling in warm phases . Low Amp into COD allows other Drivers to take control of the Bus. The Base - EPO +TNH appears to be headed back. Blocking over the Top is rather odd given the +QBO and has really created Havoc with Forecasters relying on the "should be" resultant Pattern. As alluded to earlier, the PDO is apparently alot of the Reason as it is no longer Negative. The Nina is weak and we have a formidable STJ. It seems some just kept seeing the PDO as it was and the Nina as being Canonical. Lastly, as we all know that's been in the business for awhile, sometimes Patterns don't follow the rules.
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Agree 100% ! That's the Point I brought up to another Met in another Forum regarding why I thought February wouldn't be Mild wall to wall. The PDO is no longer Negative. The area along the east Pac Coast is a big influence imo in the -EPO and PNA of course.
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Yes, and the Nina warministas are scratching their Head's trying to figure ot out. The +QBO and Lanina has them all ( CPC included) sold out to mild and very little STJ Action.
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Definitely gotta bring at least half that South.
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If the EURO Products are correct, the GFS may continue to correct toward them . Interestingly however, yesterday's Euro weeklies had basically wall to wall AN. I have my Opinion on those that may differ from Other's but, they are a Medium to LR Forecast Product and ENSO is weighted heaviest with the LR Products. The Nina has coupled so, it looks pretty apparent the LR's are reflecting that. The MJO is used but, to a lesser degree the further out I think. Yesterday's CPC Medium, LR 6-10, 8-14 Outlooks look Standard Nina. I'd say they're also going with the GEFS regarding the MJO.
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Standard Nina . Enso is weighted heaviest in LR Models.
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About 2 and a quarter inches here now. Overperformer .
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Exactly what the longer-range guidance does. Enso is factored in highest. Good explanation and points man.
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Have the deniers still saying The MJO is staying in warm phases thru February. Some Mets at that. I guess they just believe the GEFS solely. Had one respond to a reply I made to another poster irt the Models transitioning cold after 10 days, saying didn't know where we got that info.. He posted the MJO Diagrams of the EC and GEFS and said the warm phases are 5-7 this time of year as if we didn't know, lol. I had to reply and explain in detail what we were referring to and why. I'm retired now. I don't want any recognition other than a has been but sometimes it's challenging. I totally understand him in a way as most Analogs many used show a milder than average February. The quandary though is, why hug the GEFs, particularly when it is trending toward the others.?. Also, with the others going into COD why wouldn't that allow other Driver's take control of the Bus?.
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The point wasn't solely what phases the MJO is heading into. Should have completed the meaning of it , I suppose. Point was Models trended away from the high amp warm phase stall especially of what the much loved GEFS was showing. It has trended more toward the other's. As far as P 7, it can be cold and produce in the NW sections of the SE. Also, the MJO as you know, isn't the only Driver particularly if it's low amp or in COD or even if another is strong. As far as the MJO Info, it's from the same. It appears the GEFS is really the only one still showing any progression thru the really warm Phases.
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Yes, and let's not forget April 08 and particularly March 2009. Model's overnight seem to be correcting to a colder Pattern in 10 days as they're now seeing the MJO not living in the warm phases. Seem to be trying to reassert the previous Pattern to some degree then.
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Looks standard Nina +AO.
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Hopefully we get lucky and get something akin to Feb. 12-13 1985. Heavy Rain to Blizzard . I'd like to know what phase the MJO was then. I'd bet late 7 or early 8. If anyone has archive Data from then post it. I'll see what I can come up with.
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I agree. The QBO is hindering Strat warming so probably no help from that. The MJO , as you alluded to earlier looks to of taken over driving the Bus now. Once it gets to 8 we should come out pretty good. The PNA should pop up good again and we may have more juiced Storms to work with due to the increased Temperature contrast.
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Medium Range is understandable but, short range Models should be better. Work needs done to more accurately depict Temperature difference in Mountain Valleys. It would be hard but, can be done better . Official Weather Stations are part of the Problem. Not nearly enough within these area's. PWS's are not used in the Model ingest System. COOP Station's that supposedly meet NWS Standards are. Not gonna rehash problems with those as have mentioned before let alone the less than desirable accuracy of the ASOS Station's. It is highly unlikely we'll ever have the accuracy from Models we could possibly have due to these Issues as funding just won't be available to fix some and QC may not ever be inforced regarding the sighting problems.
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How often do you see complete polar opposites ?!?
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They're going that way mainly due to the now coupled Nina . The MJO is still not set in stone as far as it's continual trek into cold phases after this warm excursion. If it were to become more evident with the Models it's going on into the cold phases at decent Amp, expect some backing off the large area of AN in parts of the eastern US. Just looking at those year's listed, even though that Map shows overall AN in the eastern US, Feb 2014 and 2015 were cold in the upper South and MA. 2015 very cold and record Snowy in the upper South and lower Ohio Valley and portions of the MA. The PDO is no longer Negative either so, may be what will tip this closer to being closer to 1985, 2014 or 15. Feb 2015 actually featured a strong positive NAO. +TNH was through the roof though. Just a little food for thought. Odds regardless do favor the far SE, in particular being under control of the SER.
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Zilch here. Wound up staying South of here. Oddly, School was on delay. Suspect area along Tn Border got some.
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January Medium/Long Range: Chasing more snow to close out the month
Daniel Boone replied to mappy's topic in Mid Atlantic
Trying to iron out the MJO and Nina coupling. -
Should be Snow there. Evaporative cooling will do the trick at onset with Temp just 37. 40 here so may start as mix as dp is 22. May be mainly South of here just going by Radar.
