Daniel Boone
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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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I agree. The QBO is hindering Strat warming so probably no help from that. The MJO , as you alluded to earlier looks to of taken over driving the Bus now. Once it gets to 8 we should come out pretty good. The PNA should pop up good again and we may have more juiced Storms to work with due to the increased Temperature contrast.
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Medium Range is understandable but, short range Models should be better. Work needs done to more accurately depict Temperature difference in Mountain Valleys. It would be hard but, can be done better . Official Weather Stations are part of the Problem. Not nearly enough within these area's. PWS's are not used in the Model ingest System. COOP Station's that supposedly meet NWS Standards are. Not gonna rehash problems with those as have mentioned before let alone the less than desirable accuracy of the ASOS Station's. It is highly unlikely we'll ever have the accuracy from Models we could possibly have due to these Issues as funding just won't be available to fix some and QC may not ever be inforced regarding the sighting problems.
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How often do you see complete polar opposites ?!?
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They're going that way mainly due to the now coupled Nina . The MJO is still not set in stone as far as it's continual trek into cold phases after this warm excursion. If it were to become more evident with the Models it's going on into the cold phases at decent Amp, expect some backing off the large area of AN in parts of the eastern US. Just looking at those year's listed, even though that Map shows overall AN in the eastern US, Feb 2014 and 2015 were cold in the upper South and MA. 2015 very cold and record Snowy in the upper South and lower Ohio Valley and portions of the MA. The PDO is no longer Negative either so, may be what will tip this closer to being closer to 1985, 2014 or 15. Feb 2015 actually featured a strong positive NAO. +TNH was through the roof though. Just a little food for thought. Odds regardless do favor the far SE, in particular being under control of the SER.
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Zilch here. Wound up staying South of here. Oddly, School was on delay. Suspect area along Tn Border got some.
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January Medium/Long Range: Chasing more snow to close out the month
Daniel Boone replied to mappy's topic in Mid Atlantic
Trying to iron out the MJO and Nina coupling. -
Should be Snow there. Evaporative cooling will do the trick at onset with Temp just 37. 40 here so may start as mix as dp is 22. May be mainly South of here just going by Radar.
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Agree. May hold daytime heating in.
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Just read an Article regarding the La Nina ,CPAC and possibly Strat split connection couple days ago. Interesting.
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Yeah, agree NAO going negative again is not looking likely at all. Best we can hope for is the MJO somehow manages to make it on through the warm phases and into cold. That Nina coupling will probably make it tough. Trying to keep hope alive but, gotta be honest .
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The worrisome thing if you want more wintey weather soon is, as we know, the Euro MJO Forecasts have faltered in wanting to project it going into the COD before warm P progression. MJO is not only progressing into warm phases but, at high Amplitude. So, hope is low for the GEPS and EPS being right. As far as the other's hanging it up in warm Phases, that seems to be a bias of them so, nothing concrete . However, the Nina may favor that occuring unfortunately. The bright side is the Alaskan and over the top ridging showing up. This may help mitigate a warm phase MJO, particularly if strong . A - NAO in conjunction would possibly yield some big Snow opportunities even with an unfavorable MJO especially western and northern Areas of the Forum.
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That doesn't surprise me at all man. It's a shame this happened. Alot of wasted Cold!
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May be back to the old Flooduary deal.
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Same here. Even with the upcoming warmup we will probably still wind up -8 to -10 for the Month. We Penny'd and Nickled our way to 14.5 inches for the Season. .2 of that coming today. Month right at 10". Went to downtown Jonesville around 2 Today and a heavy Snow shower deposited between a quarter and half inch there that quickly melted from solar heating.
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Wise Cam : https://www.uvawise.edu/academics/departments/mathematics-computer-science/webcam
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Probably be the case Holston. That will completely couple the Nina as well so ... Could mean a cold possibly Snowy early March however if it goes into the cold phases then.
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It is crucial to get past MJO P 6 . I still think we will cash in with one or two formidable Snowfalls particularly if we hit P 8 at decent Amplitude.
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Coming down heavy now. Dimes and nickles mixed in .
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Flakes started falling here now. Small 1/4" size.
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Agree. ETA fits really well with progression from where we're at.
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And what big one's there have been either weakened or missed to our North South or West.
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A heavy snow shower just missed me to my north and east. Saw it spread down Wallens Ridge in Woodway just south of Pennington gap. Completely whited out view of Mountain. Never saw a flake here !
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Yeah, I knew what you were saying man. The Avatar of confused was a joking one of you being confused on which Topic, lol. That's that being a half Century old or older, lol. I can definitely relate to that .
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Yeah, that's the worry for sure. Pop that Ridge there and completely couple the Nina. I'm with Carver's on the MJO being the real Culprit. However, as mentioned yesterday, the worry is those warm Phases MJO Trek may help instigate a more La Nina Structure in the PAC. Hopefully, if so, the MJO goes steadily at a good Amplitude into the Cold Phases or Blocking set's up and flips the East back into a Wintery Pattern. The Nina is weak so, even if it does fully Couple we can work with that with a good MJO Phase.
