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Daniel Boone

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  1. Daniel Boone
    All Models were too high on forecasted lows and highs in snow covered areas. Snow cover will play a part.
  2. Daniel Boone
    From what I can see, it's the only model with that extensive area of icing. The 0Z high res. Fv 3 has predominately snow in SEKY/SWVA. The 0Z 3k Nam as well. Fwiw, it may be right but, I've found the Hrrr has a bit of a warm bias in upper east TN and SWVA.
  3. Daniel Boone
    If you're right, going to be some missed or quickly changing forecasts.
  4. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, the -NAO leaving is the killer.
  5. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, it definitely proved itself itr the last few Winters. Pretty much spot on in most cases.
  6. Daniel Boone
    I'm expecting to get near zero again tonight, I know they are expecting SW winds to advect warm air, but SW of me for about 200 miles is snow pack all the way to Huntsville Alabama. I'm sure that distance of snow pack will have an impact on the temperature here all the way to Knox County and beyond. Exactly what I'm thinking.
  7. Daniel Boone
    URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 318 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2024 TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-087-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-181000- /O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0003.240119T0000Z-240120T1200Z/ Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi- Southeast Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Southeast Monroe-Lee-Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA- Including the cities of Doeville, Mountain City, Neva, Shady Valley, Trade, Laurel Bloomery, Hartford, Cedar Creek, Erwin, Unicoi, Limestone Cove, Hampton, Cades Cove, Elkmont, Gatlinburg, Citico, Coker Creek, Rose Hill, Big Stone Gap, Norton, Wise, Coeburn, Appalachia, Pardee, Hiltons, Hansonville, Lebanon, Dye, Castlewood, Honaker, Rosedale, Benhams, Bristol VA, and Abingdon 318 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 4 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Mountains of East Tennessee and southwest Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 PM Thursday to 7 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.
  8. Daniel Boone
    Just read wwa for Swva and tenn mountains. Saying up to 4 inches of snow and a glaze of ice. That's Winter Storm Criteria actually. If I were the forecaster there now, I'd go with a Winter Storm Watch and a WWA.
  9. Daniel Boone
    Made it to 20 here so far . Got a report from Northern Lee County on the Wise Plateau that Keokee had received just under a foot from this System.
  10. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, I suspect they'll beef back up if System doesn't trend further north.
  11. Daniel Boone
    Big difference in Temps in east Tn in relation to snowpack. Check out the difference in lows in the Johnson City area compared to Knoxville.
  12. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, definitely feeding off each other( PDO, MJO etc). If we can get some strong convection fire near the Dateline it could negate the MJO warm phases somewhat. Problem is, the domino effect of pressure from the dominant MJO is probably hampering convection development along Dateline. If we could get the MJO to the Dateline with little convection in the IO , that may reverse the pattern of that. Seems PDO has became closer to neutral last I checked so, may have a decent shot. If so, there is a possibility of a monster Snowstorm ( Maybe historical)for the area somewhere from mid February to mid March I believe, particularly if the SSW does it's thing with the NAO.
  13. Daniel Boone
    Still thinking mainly frozen NE sections as enough mixing and lifting of deep Valley cold should drop incoming SW WAA to below freezing all levels from about Rogersville to Kingsport North. Probably mix from there south through Knoxville. With all the snow pack to our wsw it is possible the snow line could be further south as the cold lower air will lift as it is pulled ne by the System. Then there's a backlash that may get at least northern sections. Just my antique 2 cents.
  14. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, MJO looks strong in warm phases. Those heated waters out there just continue every year now. Really don't know the exact cause. Could be underwater Volcanic activity. Some speculate a byproduct of Climate change. Whatever the reason, it is what it is and it continues to lean Eastern US Winters on the overall mild side.
  15. Daniel Boone
    Currently 3 here and cloudy with a few flurries .
  16. Daniel Boone
    Currently 3 degrees here.
  17. Daniel Boone
    Increased Snow amounts up this way.
  18. Daniel Boone
    Great all around guy too !
  19. Daniel Boone
    Lol, yeah good to go,lol.
  20. Daniel Boone
    Out my back window. 7.2" Storm Total.
  21. Daniel Boone
  22. Daniel Boone
    Totalled 7.2" with this one . All snow. High yesterday was 28.5. Low this Morning was 13. Currently 17. Got official measured reports of 8 inches near Pennington gap and 7 in Dryden, eastern Lee County.
  23. Daniel Boone
    Agree completely.
  24. Daniel Boone
    If they're seeing a strong push of mild air ahead of the System that's why. However, the entrenched lower level cold should spell sleet/freezing rain with still snow northeastern sections (upper valley) as cold from the valley lifts and mixes with the waa ahead of the system.
  25. Daniel Boone
    Agree. I looked over alot of the goings on last night and if right, we're probably looking at maybe 60's as early as next week. If that big SER materializes and we're stuck in the MJO warm phases .. ugh. The SSW is probably needed this go around for sure. Hopefully, guidance is off on the MJO.
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