Daniel Boone

Yeah, same here. Mentioned it couple pages back and Carver's and John told how to get around the problem.

It is getting that way here. About half the Average Rainfall for December.

Oh, I know that . I was referring to how the block retrogades and other effects of it along with the AK Vort.. Yeah, a tall PNA Ridge is tops in my opinion, really for the whole area , in general.

Yeah, exactly. Just looking at latest GEM it shows a big Storm but Thermals are marginal at best. Western US Ridge, Huge West based Gl Block but, big Thorn Vort over Alaska working in Tandem with the Gl HP in not allowing CAA into the States and pulling Canadian air to the Asian side. So, if enough cold could get in here under that monster -NAO ee would be in Business.

That Alaskan Thorn . That Menace needs booted out.

Yeah. Usually good Teleconnections as you said. Blocking throws the usual downstream flow off kilter. Hopefully, this is the Case coming up. We shall see I suppose.

Yeah. He does a good job. I don't know what's going on with the US Model's. Maybe they were recently "upgraded". If so, maybe DEI Hires did them.

Embarrassing really.

Wow ! 69 here. The December Record may have been in early December 1982. There was a 4 (Either 3 or 4 memory failing some)day stretch of Record Highs in the Upper 70's @ KTRI. That was a wild Month. Major Snowfall the 12th(6-10). An inch the 21st then 72 Christmas Day in Pennington gap here in Lee County, Va.

Lol. That it was .

I've never in all my 40 + Years in meteorology seen anything more rediculous looking than those two Depictions. Something is amiss. As far as sensible reasoning irt any Models having trouble would be the possible GOA LP or Alaskan Vortex in conjunction with Greenland Blocking. Any Alaskan Vortex with HP east of there will block CPF and even can pull Cold across to the Asian side but, troughing should still result in the lower 48. However, either of those Depictions are as Carvers alluded to; don't make sense. The GFS looks like it just went complete strong positive AO and NAO big-time. They're both really a jumbled mess.

Yeah, that looks ideal for STJ and Gulf Action on up through Hattras as you said. Man, providing there's enough cold and it looks to be, and the STJ is active enough that would be great. Edit: The only concern might be is STJ systems taking a bit too low road, especially if weak.

Yeah, been thinking about how close that is to happening and it causing me anguish to see how a couple little Flies keep hampering it from evolving on Modeling, lol

Perfectly said and exactly what the deal is imo brother!

Hopefully, we keep enough cold in Canada that even with the troubled NPAC, we still score as strong Blocking can still get the Job done.

As we've discussed, we need any semblance of an Alaskan Vortex or GOA Low to erode or shift away.

You're not wrong, that does hurt as it cuts off CPF into Canada. However, with enough cold in Canada with the other features in place at 500mb you can still score . Blocking is how you overcome not great features on the Pacific side. Ultimately those features usually erode or shift away if Blocking overwhelms.

It was what you'd categorize as a Clipper/Miller B hybrid imo. Similar to the March '09 , I believe that bombed Memphis with nearly 10".

That's the one I'm referring to too..I don't recall it being a Clipper but, may of been. Thinking back, I remember it did drop down to our west and then curved ene. We had about an inch of Upslope behind it. Another very cold clipper dropped 5" a few days later.

Nashville got close to 8" in January 03 . That was a LP System. SE KY got 8" ftom it as it tracked ene. We got 5" here as we were on the eastern flank and got bands. The solid concentrated area ran from Central Tn up through SEKY and on into West Va.

Looks to me they're hugging one Model . Look at overnight Ensemble Runs and you can guess which. May or may not be right. Today's Data appears to of maybe flattened that Southern Plains Ridge then.

Exactly. Need that out of there !

Merry Christmas to you Brother !

Larry's an excellent Medium / LR Forecaster.

You're not wrong. I don't care alot for them anymore. Besides , they're run so often now why are they even called Weeklies. As far as the colder solutions now, they are late thru the Gate. The Controls picked up on the colder solutions sooner. The Blocking should assure the colder pattern as a Sw displaced 50-50 looks to be going to be in Place. IF that Feature were to not materialize then the cold won't be as deep or pronounced.