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Daniel Boone

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Everything posted by Daniel Boone

  1. Daniel Boone
    Yeah really. Look how bad it looks before that. As mentioned couple days ago , you don't want a deep arctic airmass dive down the west coast. The PAC is killing us once again. Those warm WPAC and IO SST'S are the Root. Even the MJO hanging in the warm phases correlate. If only that Arctic Outbreak would drop down the Rockies and Plains. Whole different outcome then. As is, the more that dives down Californica to Baja, the greater the odds of what happened last year with the -NAO/SER hookup.
  2. Daniel Boone
    That what once was rare SER -NAO hookup has become a normal occurrence recently. Hopefully the GooFuS is just factoring in that outcome with this run and the GEM is correct. If not well..... Edit: to add the that , I believe it still boils down mainly to the PAC. Ultimately, down to the extremely warm WPAC SST'S and IO. A deeply dug trough down to BAJA argues for an Eastern Ridge as we all know.
  3. Daniel Boone
    Just 1 dud in the whole package. 12-30-73 one. It was a Nina Winter however.
  4. Daniel Boone
    You know if what we discussed yesterday does pan out, man should be some big snows crop with that as well. Even if MJO warm phases do commence, super strong blocking should mitigate or override it as was the case during some great wall to wall Winter's, ie 77-78 . That January featured nonstop cold in the Eastern US as the MJO toured the warm phases. I'm thinking the following Winter did as well either in January or February.
  5. Daniel Boone
    Exactly. Right with you man.
  6. Daniel Boone
    Good point. Some of the great wall to wall Winter's ie, 77-78 featured continued cold in the East during the MJO warm Ph Tour in January. Sometimes other Drivers apparently just override it.
  7. Daniel Boone
    You can see the print of a bad PAC there. Also, what looks like warm ph MJO trying to kick in. I never like it when the Arctic Airmass would dive that far west into S. Cal. Usually spells at least a semblance of a SER even with blocking. Also spells cutter's. We need that to drop down the Rockies and Plains. Front Range as John noted, ideally. Hopefully, this does drop down further East. In the setup of a deep western arctic plunge along with a - NAO the SER usually pokes up toward the Valley, unfortunately. You can get Cad due to the blocking so, east of Apps and MA can still fair well..
  8. Daniel Boone
    It's just unreal how we seldom get the MJO in favorable phases with a formidable -NAO .
  9. Daniel Boone
    Many good Analogues there.
  10. Daniel Boone
    Used to when you got the Euro and Nam in agreement it was a seal the deal thing. Not so much anymore.
  11. Daniel Boone
    Noticed radar returns were enhancing in area's. Graupel can definitely make it through that dry Column more than flakes. Maybe we'll get a surprise dusting tonight.
  12. Daniel Boone
    Hopefully, it comes to fruition. Pretty good odds actually .
  13. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, clouds definitely snowy looking. If it weren't for the dry mid layer Atmosphere. Snowing in a broad area way up in Altitude. Virga Storm.
  14. Daniel Boone
    Yeah. That's the thing. It could work better for us with a mix Nina/Nino Pattern. Nina more apt to promote Arctic airmass delivery via Polar Jet and Clipper's as well. Nino SJT along with Blocking. Enhanced possibility of a big Dog imo. If we can get that Arctic airmass down here as shown then , that should be when the real fun begins.
  15. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, I agree if we get that bridge we should be in business. I think the MJO is definitely involved with the pattern but, think it's having some substitute relieving it some. That Nina Ridge trying to establish into the Aleutians occasionally is being forced most probably by those SST'S aforementioned at least in Tandem with the warm western Nino SST Area. A typical Nino Aleutian Low , or even an east based GOA LP is being knocked off kilter.
  16. Daniel Boone
    Exactly what's been going on. Bluewave posted recently in the regular Forum regarding that and his thoughts behind it. The Western Pac Warm pool is what he said and actually gave a pretty convincing reasoning. Many, Pros and Enthusiasts alike gave their argument in how the Nino should overcome that. Apparently, it hasn't. It probably is trying thus the occasional -EPO.
  17. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, Model reflection of MJO warm phases projection along with Jet Ext..
  18. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, with that strong -NAO the GFS should correct SE with those cutting Systems. May even do like the lumbering LP that hit central Plains with that blizzard a little over a week ago. It cut toward the MW then got shunted SE by the HP in Canada then. That used to happen in Winter's of yore when blocking was in place. If one did cut it would get blocked and then have to travel SE under and around the blocking.
  19. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, that's the case most of the time. Hopefully, the strong -NAO will ultimately lead to those Systems tracking SE and we get some hybrid Transfers ala 95-96. Phasing with STJ Systems would be the thing to watch with the Nino being around now.
  20. Daniel Boone
    Bingo ! I think you nailed there buddy.
  21. Daniel Boone
    My Uncle and Cousins lived in NW Ohio. They never get over that one. Amazing !
  22. Daniel Boone
    Exactly. Those super warm SST'S in the western PAC is the culprit I'm pretty confident of.
  23. Daniel Boone
    Yep. Living up to it's name for us.
  24. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, that OV Lp. Started to mention earlier that I bet we'd have to deal with that when the GFS went South with basically a Miller A. Puts us in the screw zone.
  25. Daniel Boone
    Yeah true. Wouldn't it be a slap for the great Valley to get missed to the South and then North. Wouldn't be a huge surprise though as has happened quite a few times, even EWSN , lol. So's the life of those living in the Great Valley.
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