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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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Wise Cam : https://www.uvawise.edu/academics/departments/mathematics-computer-science/webcam
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Probably be the case Holston. That will completely couple the Nina as well so ... Could mean a cold possibly Snowy early March however if it goes into the cold phases then.
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It is crucial to get past MJO P 6 . I still think we will cash in with one or two formidable Snowfalls particularly if we hit P 8 at decent Amplitude.
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Coming down heavy now. Dimes and nickles mixed in .
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Flakes started falling here now. Small 1/4" size.
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Agree. ETA fits really well with progression from where we're at.
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And what big one's there have been either weakened or missed to our North South or West.
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A heavy snow shower just missed me to my north and east. Saw it spread down Wallens Ridge in Woodway just south of Pennington gap. Completely whited out view of Mountain. Never saw a flake here !
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Yeah, I knew what you were saying man. The Avatar of confused was a joking one of you being confused on which Topic, lol. That's that being a half Century old or older, lol. I can definitely relate to that .
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Yeah, that's the worry for sure. Pop that Ridge there and completely couple the Nina. I'm with Carver's on the MJO being the real Culprit. However, as mentioned yesterday, the worry is those warm Phases MJO Trek may help instigate a more La Nina Structure in the PAC. Hopefully, if so, the MJO goes steadily at a good Amplitude into the Cold Phases or Blocking set's up and flips the East back into a Wintery Pattern. The Nina is weak so, even if it does fully Couple we can work with that with a good MJO Phase.
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1/21-1/22 Winter Storm OBS Thread
Daniel Boone replied to metalicwx367's topic in Southeastern States
Larry, there's alot of bad Data that is being used unfortunately. I spoke with the Chief Met at KMRX a few years back regarding the Issues. He said the FAA does govern the Official Airport Station's used by the NWS and that their Quality Criteria is not par with the NWS Standard Guidelines. Ie., they allow 4 degrees either side of actual for the Temperature Calibration. -
The now postive PDO is definitely having an effect on the Pattern. Models have consistently tried to do away with the PNA in the LR or at least waffle to and from it only to bring it back. The MJO once in warm Phases should throw it off kilter for a bit but, once it reaches PH 7 expect it to reassert. We can get some big Rain to Snow Events in 7. Then, if it gets to 8 at decent Amp I think the whole Forum should cash in with a formidable Storm or two. The Feb. '85 possible resemblance or the '96 one Carver's alluded to may have merit. I think the only drawback will be if the MJO doesn't make it past 6 or the Nina is able to augment the Central Pac Ridge during the warm phase period.
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Morning Low of Zero here. Report of 2 below in Dryden, just NE of Pennington gap. Some deep snow covered Valleys were 5-10 below. I went just north of Pennington gap this Morning through the Gap of Stone Mountain up Hy 421( half mile North of Pennington) and there's plenty of Snow through there.
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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?
Daniel Boone replied to mappy's topic in Mid Atlantic
I saw him measure it with a measuring Tape at a convenience store on the Lot in the Video . -
We're running about 3-4 degrees colder than KTRI over here. I'd say much of the area over there has some as well. Warm spot there .
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2024-2025 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Buckethead's topic in Southeastern States
You have to go way back to 1895 to find an extreme Event. Lake Charles recorded 2 feet then. Nola 8". That one moved up and got us all involved with quite a bit. -
1895 is when Lake Charles recorded 2 feet from that one Storm !
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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?
Daniel Boone replied to mappy's topic in Mid Atlantic
It'll make it after it warms up enough to be Rain. -
Been watching it too. Amazing. Already close to 2 inches in NW Florida. Been watching some live fee from there too.
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I don't know why anyone would use the Nam to forecast Temps.. It has a well known warm bias in the area. For that matter pretty much all the SRM'S have that bias other than the RGEM although the Nam is worst . Down to 7 here and I'm on a Hill so, you can bet a few degrees lower in the Valleys.
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Finally got a few Reports regarding Lee County Snowfall Amounts. Pennington gap South South east to the Dot Community picked up 3 inches last night from the Steamers. Western Lee an inch. Central a quarter to a half. 6-8" on Wallen Ridge a mile Sse of Pennington gap.
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Deep Mountain Valleys with decent Snow pack may do it.
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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?
Daniel Boone replied to mappy's topic in Mid Atlantic
Exactly PSU . Right on the Money ! -
January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?
Daniel Boone replied to mappy's topic in Mid Atlantic
Yep. Still active STJ as well. Where's that Nina augmented Central Pac Ridge and non existent STJ the warmanistas continue harping on..