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Daniel Boone

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  1. Daniel Boone
    CMC and GFS Operationals went in the crapper tonight. GFS manages to somehow pop a SE Ridge by New Years. Don't know how it came to that equation.?!?!
  2. Daniel Boone
    With pretty much all Data showing the bitter cold blast, weather media outlets are buying into a just cold shot. Saw one such one, TV Met, go for a high of 36 Christmas . This person generally uses a Euro/GFS blend but, more times than not, the warmest solution. Carvers probably knows who but, I won't call any names as am not trying to defame them. At this juncture, I'll only go as far as to say, it looks a pretty much sure bet of one colder than the run of the mill cold shots like yesterday's. Basically the type some weather outlets are showing. I know many of them adjust to Climatology and also trend downward as the blast continues being progged as we get closer in time.
  3. Daniel Boone
    Scattered lt. Sn showers here today. Went to Middlesboro earlier and noticed areas on Stone Mountain in western Lee County had measurable snow in streaks. Alway down to about 1400 ft. In some places. More as u go up of course. Apparently some heavy snow showers or training streaks went over these areas.
  4. Daniel Boone
    Just place that solution 100 miles further East and we'd all still be fine.
  5. Daniel Boone
    Where I've not been in the game like I used to be due to health reasons, I lost touch somewhat on Model "upgrades". From what I've seen so far at this juncture of the cold season, the latest GFS upgrade was way overdone in the modification of its flaws. As someone else noted, it is now the Dr. No.. Even with cold air advection and 528 to 534 DM line over our area with -8 850s , 2m T of 1C. it'll somehow manage to paint rain .?.. I, of course know that the great Valley does cause us to get the short end of the stick often but, not to the degree of the example here. Maybe it sees the Valley as all Chatt..j/k With the latest "upgrade"" I'm really curious to what was programmed into it and where that info/data came from . Mainly pertaining to our area.
  6. Daniel Boone
    Thank you, Thank you very much !
  7. Daniel Boone
    With a setup like that, I have saw that pan out. The coastal pulls down or allows in place cold air to hold, therefore the incoming system produces front end snow. Sometimes a thumping b4 changeover. In a much colder environment the setup has produced all snow for parts of the area.
  8. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, unless skies stay clear for a good while 2night, lower elevations are pretty much for sure out of luck. However, by the looks of it, timing regarding that is not good as clouds are rolling in in time to hold the days heating in.
  9. Daniel Boone
    Let's hope the Euro still has a bit of a warm bias and more of the area gets in on some accs.
  10. Daniel Boone
    Over the last 10 years, many places snowfall averages have decreased. However, one area that has gone against that trend is Oklahoma. There was a time when Tulsa and Oklahoma Cities Snowfall averages were quite a bit lower than ours. What has led to this "switch" ? Is it the warm Atlantic cycle, mostly +NAO, or other ?
  11. Daniel Boone
    Thought some of you all may find this interesting. This is from the University of Virginia's Climate office. Wise holds the States official Seasonal Snowfall Record. 124.2 inches in 1995-96. I lived in Pennington gap, Lee County then and recorded 52" . Virginia Extremes: Highest Sea-level Pressure 1051.2mb January 31, 1981 Washington National Lowest Sea-level Pressure 965.3mb March 15, 1993 Richmond Highest Wind Speed 134mph September 14, 1944 Cape Henry Highest Temperature 110F July 15, 1954 Balcony Falls1 Lowest Temperature -30F January 21, 1985 Mountain Lake Biological Station High 24-hour Precipitation 27.35 in August 20, 1969 Nelson County2 High Monthly Precipitation 24.98 in June, 1995 Glasgow3 High Annual Precipitation 81.78 in 1972 Montebello Least Annual Precipitation 12.52 in 1941 Moore's Creek Greatest 24-hour Snowfall 33.0 in March 6, 1962 Big Meadows High Single Storm Snowfall 48.0 in January 6-7, 1996 Big Meadows4 Greatest Monthly Snowfall 54.0 in February, 1899 Warrenton Greatest Seasonal Snowfall 124.2 in 1995-6 Wise5
  12. Daniel Boone
    Of course CPC bought the mild runs and ran with them in their 8-14 day.
  13. Daniel Boone
    Would be nice to have a home on High Knob in Wise County. Back in the early 2000s Dave Dierks Chief Meteorologist on WCYB said the average there was 110 inches a Season. He listed the Ski Resort areas in NC and their average was 90 to 100". Highknoblandform.com has alot of info. About the area.
  14. Daniel Boone
    The Models are picking up on the MJO signal in concert with the Niña forcing in the PAC. Screaming PAC Jet. It is possible, a ridge may try to poke up occasionally in the NE PAC due to the warm SSTS there and an AK Vortex retro to Aleutians. That would be great. Hopefully, La Niña will rapidly weaken and those NE PAC SST'S remain warm and blocking continues then, we'll be in business.
  15. Daniel Boone
    Excellent interpretation and explanation Carver!! Logically laid out reasoning.
  16. Daniel Boone
    They're definitely fewer and further between than pre early 1980s. There's different hypotheses/theories on why. I think Wes Junker and maybe Anthony Masiello and some others discussed this pretty in depth several years ago on Eastern WB. Can't remember what their ideas were but, was interesting.
  17. Daniel Boone
    I've witnessed several decent snowfalls here over the years with a crappy Pac but, pretty much always a strong -NAO. The 60'S come to mind as the -PDO La Niña Winters all had decent snowfalls. -NAO dominated those years.
  18. Daniel Boone
    If HLB can hold on while Niña rapidly weakens, we could really be in business, i.m.o... Of course, the GW bunch that have so much to gain from it, may pay to have models hacked. So, alot of folks would be caught of guard. Then we'd have fake Models or Forecasts, lol. All joking aside, wouldn't be too surprising actually, in light of all the proven fraudulence, lying and greed that's so prevalent nowadays. Sad, scary world.
  19. Daniel Boone
    Graupel here just b4 dark that dusted housetops, cars etc.. Went to Big Stone Gap 2day and passed vehicles coming from Norton/Wise area that looked to of had about an inch on them.
  20. Daniel Boone
    Thanks for the uplifting comments buddy. That warm pool you mentioned may help pump a ridge there as you mentioned from time to time and mitigate that zonal depiction. That could work for us and maybe, I won't eat those words, lol.
  21. Daniel Boone
    Will add, looking at the last evolution of the esp run. It does go zonal even with the blocking. That AK Vort is suppressing the Niña forced Ridge but instead of it shifting east or west, it just flattens and thereby causes a screaming Pac Jet. Not good. So. I may eat my above words. Would be nice if that AK Vort would continue west and set-up along the Aleutians.
  22. Daniel Boone
    I'll say one thing, you can bet the monthlies will bust big time if that high latitude depiction is realized throughout the Winter at any sustainability. Those Monthly runs put alot of weight in ENSO .
  23. Daniel Boone
    Think that's the biggest concern for the lower elevations. The longer the clear skies 2night the better. Problem is, it's already beginning to cloud up. Worst case scenario; cloud up during afternoon as that seals in the daytime heat build up , then remain cloudy up to precip onset. Don't you just hate that if you're a snow lover.?!
  24. Daniel Boone
    It was wet here in Lee County up until last Month. It was way below average here. Only 1.4 inches of rain ! Just.43" yesterday. The last 3 systems have produced much less than forecasted. Snowfall fro the other day was more than models projected for the County.
  25. Daniel Boone
    Right along you John and my thoughts yesterday of the "how" to get a favorable pattern even with the AK Vort.
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