Daniel Boone

The theme for the fall and early Winter has been 3 weeks cold west vs a week to 10 days cold east. Block or no block. I don't know why but, it's as if we are going through a cyclic continual process. The Nina is the biggest Driver. I suspect the MJO is having some impact. Alas, the NW Atlantic SST'S.

I agree completely man. Model's appear to have gotten worse over the last couple years.

Nothing worse than rain then flash freeze and bitter cold with no snow. Better to be warm and sunny for Christmas.

One way or the other I'm pretty positive we'll get some snow, whether a dusting or several inches. I have saw that happen with transfer's; a decent shield of snow heading in from the west only to be killed by a system developing well to the east and sucking the energy into it. I have also witnessed Lee side development that enhanced precip by throwing moisture back .

This may be one of those years when some area's see a white Christmas ( 1" or more) while other's a short distance away doesn't .

Nina Ninja still main culprit. I do wonder lf a formidable 50-50 Low were in place how this would transpire. I do believe that is the biggest problem with this pattern let alone the powerhouse storms coming out of the Plains. Those SST's around Newfoundland are the probable cause, i.m.o

Yeppers !

My belief it is mainly the SST'S in the 50-50 area irt the problem regarding it. I wholeheartedly agree alot of complexities.

Oh, definitely agree with that as well. I've been retired a long time now and don't have as much experience with advanced tools in the field they have now but, will say the Greenland block -NAO hook-up is more prominent in recent years. The cause is not completely understood, mainly speculation. I just thought Cape pointed out something that actually makes sense. Why are the 50-50 lows not developing or holding like it seems they should ? Could be SST'S in that area ,QBO etc.. who knows for sure. But, we do know, there's cause and effect.

the 50-50 low is whats been missing. thats the problem as cape's alluded to in other posts.

Yep! I would of loved to of seen that fall ! That much snow in 6 hours on a saturated ground...

You may be talking about Feb. 12, '85. Heavy rain all day the 11th turned to very heavy, wind driven snow after midnight after the strong LP moved up the Valley and arctic air rushed in behind and under it. about 2.5 inches of rain fell here the 11th before changeover around 1:15 that night. I heard the wind roaring during the night. Had to be gusts 40-50 mph. I got up at 7:30 a.m. as snow was winding down and went out and measured 15" in the level. There were 4 foot drifts beside my home! Forecasts were for light amounts.

It does seem to of hurt more than help lately. 10-11 it played a big role in that Nina being cold/ snowy. Year before last it did seem to help some. I think alot of the problem is where we are not getting the usual 50-50 Low with it. If you add it to the equation, these systems cutting would go so far only to be shunted SE even when they come in too far into the West . Also, without that 50-50 the block can connect with the SER, as has been the case quite often in recent years. The culprit could be the SST's off Newfoundland not being conducive for LP there.

The warm almost always verifies.

Insult to injury. Might as well be warm so can get outside some.

Yep, exactly. Get strong west based -NAO and still rain. The ultimate let down.

Yeah, may rush in soon enough to changeover and still produce measurable snow ❄️

Desperately need a 50-50 or thereabouts to stop these things from cutting. If not, a further east PNA Ridge.

Not surprising, unfortunately. Hopefully, the cold will crash and still produce a measurable snowfall on backside.

Yeah, it's confused, lol

Unless it phased and pulled coastal back . With a block in place, that's a possibility. Cold would be wrapped under the GL LP.

Exactly Odds are against that for sure.

Yeah, kind of puts you in mind of a couple of the systems in the winter of 95-96.

Yeah, it continues the cutter idea. Hopefully it's wrong.

Makes perfect sense.