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Daniel Boone

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Everything posted by Daniel Boone

  1. Daniel Boone
    The absolute worst scenario for us. Extremely treacherous in every aspect.
  2. Daniel Boone
    Freezing rain sleet here now. Freaking HRRR may score one this time unfortunately.
  3. Daniel Boone
    Dierks on wcyb has 2-6" total for here.
  4. Daniel Boone
    A dusting from that small band. Quit for now.
  5. Daniel Boone
    Snowing here now.
  6. Daniel Boone
    I assume the further ENE one travels from there the slower snow to sleet changeover or mixing . I expect mainly Snow and sleet here, all Snow Wise on NE.
  7. Daniel Boone
    The odd thing that time was the NAO was positive. There was a huge PNA Ridge, -EPO.
  8. Daniel Boone
    That would be akin to what happened in Feb. 2015.
  9. Daniel Boone
    30.1 here and overcast.
  10. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, HRRR has had a warm bias for this area as long as I can remember. You'd think that would be corrected by now. Alot has to do with what Stations data has been used and ingested in the Model's. If they're not calibrated well or are from a warmer location then it causes issues.
  11. Daniel Boone
    If correct, big dog opportunitIES !
  12. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, I wonder what a ph 7 during Nino would look like.?.. Apparently, the enhanced STJ somehow throws the typical MJO alignment off kilter.
  13. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, could be what the more snow output Model's are picking up in. Low Dews.. evaporative cooling. RGEM has this area with 2-4" 10:1 Snow Totals.
  14. Daniel Boone
    Larry in SE Sub and main Forum backed those findings with tons of Data.
  15. Daniel Boone
    If it gets to 8 we should then see a nice PNA Ridge set up. We really need those higher Lats in our favor as Coz was alluding to. That would help with the Southern trek and speed of Systems thus upping the ante of Big Dogs. If the MJO were to get stuck in the warm phases and blocking doesn't reset it could be another Flooduary. We do have a wildcard at least . The SSW. It should revamp the blocking.
  16. Daniel Boone
    On a good note, it has became mostly cloudy here.
  17. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, it many times has the winning hand here but, pretty strong WAA at 850 will probably give it to the Hrrr, or a combination of both Models may be the route it takes.
  18. Daniel Boone
    Gfs holds and has Snow NETN/SEKY and SWVA. 2-3" SEKY and SWVA. 10:1 Ratio.
  19. Daniel Boone
    All Models were too high on forecasted lows and highs in snow covered areas. Snow cover will play a part.
  20. Daniel Boone
    From what I can see, it's the only model with that extensive area of icing. The 0Z high res. Fv 3 has predominately snow in SEKY/SWVA. The 0Z 3k Nam as well. Fwiw, it may be right but, I've found the Hrrr has a bit of a warm bias in upper east TN and SWVA.
  21. Daniel Boone
    If you're right, going to be some missed or quickly changing forecasts.
  22. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, the -NAO leaving is the killer.
  23. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, it definitely proved itself itr the last few Winters. Pretty much spot on in most cases.
  24. Daniel Boone
    I'm expecting to get near zero again tonight, I know they are expecting SW winds to advect warm air, but SW of me for about 200 miles is snow pack all the way to Huntsville Alabama. I'm sure that distance of snow pack will have an impact on the temperature here all the way to Knox County and beyond. Exactly what I'm thinking.
  25. Daniel Boone
    URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 318 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2024 TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-087-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-181000- /O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0003.240119T0000Z-240120T1200Z/ Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi- Southeast Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Southeast Monroe-Lee-Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA- Including the cities of Doeville, Mountain City, Neva, Shady Valley, Trade, Laurel Bloomery, Hartford, Cedar Creek, Erwin, Unicoi, Limestone Cove, Hampton, Cades Cove, Elkmont, Gatlinburg, Citico, Coker Creek, Rose Hill, Big Stone Gap, Norton, Wise, Coeburn, Appalachia, Pardee, Hiltons, Hansonville, Lebanon, Dye, Castlewood, Honaker, Rosedale, Benhams, Bristol VA, and Abingdon 318 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 4 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Mountains of East Tennessee and southwest Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 PM Thursday to 7 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.
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