Daniel Boone
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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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Roundy rounder will be making his rounds
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The MJO should progress along with the favorable SST's in at least 7-8 and probably on to 1. The PDO isn't very negative and doesn't look to get any moreso.
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Yeah, MEI actually dropped some. The N. Atlantic actually is now looking favorable for blocking. The sst in goa are supportive of Alaskan ridging. SST's west and south of there may try to present a problem with getting a typical Nino Aleutian low as they are a bit warm. The Ural Hp connecting over the pole looks good for HLB as you alluded to in the Winter thread.. A -AO/-NAO combo along with mainly central based Nino is going to pay off somewhere. Saw on main forum the NHEM 500 mb composite from 2009 at this juncture looked very similar. I used to do alot of research comparing composites from Analogue years. Some went a similar path but many didn't. So, hard to get hopes real high just yet although the SST progression in area's mentioned do increase the hopes.
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Good discussion guy's. If had time I'd chime in. Btw, the n. Atlantic SST'S are looking better wrt assisting the - NAO and 50-50. With the strong Nino and warm SST's around the Aleutians and Japan the PAC may argue for a Western Trough even with a +PNA at least part of the time so, hopefully N.Atlantic blocking will be prevalent and formidable. Of course, will once again run the risk of ser/ nao linkage unfortunately if that western Trough digs enough imo.
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Good point. Not that I think this winter won't be overall mild, I just think that regardless of a couple degrees warmer climate, wherever the trough setsup predominantly will still average colder than " normal". If we were dealt exact same pattern, as the late 70's for instance, we'd still average below normal for the Winter Season. May not be 6-8 degrees but...
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I couldn't come up with the right emoji. It was a joke. I agree with you. You're not a nobody brother. It's many of the " somebody's" that in essence are the real nobody's.
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Odds are with that look.
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Being who he is, he wouldn't be able to handle that
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Yeah. Like the change in the N. Atlantic. Definitely more blocking oriented signature. May even have a decent shot at decent 50-50's this year. GOA may promote ridging there. Aleutian low may be west of Aleutians or possibly even South with the SST look.
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HL blocking was prominent in the 60's Winter's.
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Right with you on that brother.
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Exactly. You got Webb there, lol.
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As in politics anymore, the one accusing the other is the one pushing an agenda it seems.
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I'm thinking a couple -PDO/Nino Winter's in the 1960's featured a similar look as the Cansips. Of course, a different climate era so, shouldn't be as cold. The Avg to above average Snowfall wasn't confined to the West those Winters.
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If that comes to fruition, Northern Plains and Southern Canada Snow Cover's going to suffer or disappear. Not usually too alarming at that juncture but, it does extend well North in western Canada. Chinook ! Regardless, let's hope it's wrong. Hudson and Eastern Canada looks fine and would probably be adding snow pack.
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Yeah, very interesting and worth mulling over. Whatever is squelching the STJ to oblivion in the South quite possibly is the same "thing" that did it those year's. Just need to find the source. Could be something to do with the Baja cold pool. What areas of the N. Hemisphere that are showing El nino prints , appear to be west of typical as well. So, probably something bigger as a whole as far as 500 mb mechanical atmospheric Driver's, although, the Baja deal probably is affecting the eastern STJ extension. (From Baja eastward). Could be the IOD, maybe even Tunga strat/trop association. Not well versed in that other than effects at HL of which sample size is not great and that is of Volcanic Ash, not moisture. What have you came up with Carver ? Forgot to mention the SW Atlantic Tropical activity. It's definitely having an effect as we both concluded. Question is, will that disturbed area help or hurt the SE/TN Valley when the STJ finally holds up enough to traverse the area. If the STJ is strong enough, it should pull that moisture laden airmass into it. However, if not , it may not help at all.
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Cosgrove's outlook looks good. Good reasoning per usual from him. Only thing that is a bit puzzling is his Analogue list, however. Some of those weren't Nino's. Apparently other parameters were used in coming up with those. I used to converse with Larry. I may give him a buzz.
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Sadly, as many of us know, SSW can sometimes mess up a good pattern for us.
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Lol. Hadn't saw this post by you. Was replying to other. Sounds like I'm on same page as Coz. Knowing Coz is leaning colder for December makes me feel more confident about it. He's hard to beat. I think you nailed it on why the lack of landfalling canes Buddy. Makes sense. I'm going to go check Larry's outlook out.
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Y I saw Cansips and overall it looks pretty good. I do think it may be overplaying the -PDO as it is close to neutral. Also, if the AO and NAO go as guidance suggests December could be colder than suggested. I hadn't saw Cozs Outlook. Will give it a read.
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Yeah true. We lucked out in early September in Lee County at least with the Supercell that dumped 2-3 inches. Wasn't for that we'd been in serious danger even then. I'm hoping and praying the STJ will fire up soon and it'll average a bit further N than typical Nino Climo. With what is looking more likely of a -AO and NAO continuing on average, so Systems riding along it should occasionally interact with the STJ.
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Really worried much of the area's going to have to deal with that. I pray not.
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So far, any attempt of Models showing a trend to positive for both indexes have quickly reverted back to negative. Hopefully the CFS is right here. If so, we may not have a mild December. Cansips is obviously placing some emphasis on a -PDO , and of course alot on the Nino as Grit alluded to. It doesn't appear to give much credence to blocking in December and tbh, imo, not as much as it should as the Blocking it's showing for Jan/Feb. Just my has been antique old school thought's fwiw.
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If you take into account the EC' s warm bias, it's not a bad Outlook. The Snowfall map doesn't match up with the Precip/Temp Maps in the Central/Southern Apps. Of course the Snowfall thing is more of a novelty anyway. Just puzzled how it derived that look particularly for the Southern Apps, however. Just noticed that was the Canadian you referenced. I just looked at the EC. Comment is in respect to the EC Outlook.
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Well, as far as Temperature map, looks as a possible outcome, although the EC has a warm bias. So taken verbatim, with deducted warm bias, our area would be in slightly below average. As far as precip, looks good. Snowfall map, uh, doesn't make much sense particularly for the Apps, when you compare the precip map and temperature map.
