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Daniel Boone

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  1. Daniel Boone
    Radiance wx posted on main forum enso thread how CFS v2 was showing a warm December referencing the eastern states as he's been forecasting. He showed how his analogues have outperformed guidance this Fall. He's been forecasting another cold /snowy Winter in New Mexico where he lives. He actually does pretty good over all but, he kinda stuck his foot in his mouth as the CFS 2 is showing the entire country mild for December, even New Mexico. I thought it kind of funny, lol
  2. Daniel Boone
    Cfs2 has entire US mild for December... even New Mexico( surely not, that has to be wrong). Old Mexico too for that matter, lol
  3. Daniel Boone
    If that turns out to be realized, good odds of a cold probably snowy Holiday period, providing that warm pool off Japan doesn't throw a monkey wrench and alter the typical downstream pattern. Could that be at least partially responsible for an eastward displaced Aleutian/Goa Lp.?.
  4. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, checked their Twitter and they finally did mention possibly ending as a mix in the Mountains Monday morning last night. Of course they were referencing higher elevations. So, still late and also the elevation and precip type part. With the setup and model output I'd worded flurries in the lower eles Monday morning with snow shower's in higher elevations ending late morning. Depending on how long and strong blocking holds, could be cooler than indicated during projected mild period.
  5. Daniel Boone
    That warm pool off Japan has and is having impacts on the 500mb pattern as Bluewave has been harping on for awhile now. That PAC Jet is a powerhouse over that area now. Will it cause the goa lp to be displaced east from typical Nino forcing locations ? Will it alter the MJO typical forcing as well ? Going to be some odd set ups this Winter I believe.
  6. Daniel Boone
    First flakes of Season in lower elevations of Lee County this morning as flurries were observed.
  7. Daniel Boone
    I don't think KJKL or KMRX ever even mentioned the possibility. Really surprised at that... Particularly JKL.
  8. Daniel Boone
    Yeah. Hopefully we can land a couple storms at the least. Odds still better than last with active STJ.
  9. Daniel Boone
    Good post buddy. Yeah, LC still is optimistic. As with many he is a bit more reserved. I still haven't spoke with him. I'll give him a buzz and maybe get a little more out of him. I think with the continued intensification of El nino at this juncture has gun shyed some of us . The Japanese warm pool is more concern to me. As I mentioned on another forum, the strong Ninos of 82-83 and 97-98 were decent around here snowfall wise. It's the one's Don S. brought up that were terrible here. '72-73, 91-92, '94-95. Stinkers as you said, lol Btw, Wife was up early and saw flurries as did many other's here. Small flakes.
  10. Daniel Boone
    Anybody see any flakes ? I didn't but, apparently some were falling above 2500 ft as could be seen on Mountains. As far as the pattern, I wish I'd kept my hopes down regarding an early winter start. Many of us suspicioned that big warm pool off Japan was influencing/ altering the pattern causing a La nina background state within a strong Nino and affecting the MJO as well. It obviously is influencing the NA Pattern. Look at the intensity of that Firehose Pac Jet over that area ! Other Drivers are there but, that is a strong one. El Nino forcing will fight against it but, question is , will it pop the typical Aleutian Lp where we want it or be forced further east by that warm pool intensified Pac Jet...
  11. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, that one clocked that area with up to two feet in South Carolina !
  12. Daniel Boone
    The worst of the worst Nino Analogues , lol. The 82-83, 97-98 and even '15-16 were all better in much of the Central/ Southern Apps and MA Snowfall wise. May be different in your area . Man, if this one follows those, talk about a depressing one for Winter weather enthusiasts.
  13. Daniel Boone
    It's all those Nukes NK fired into that Area
  14. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, that's the eyesore we addressed a few days ago when the good pattern started showing up. Once the MJO gets to 7-8 it should help position it back where we want it if it's not already there as Model's may adjust west of what's depicted.
  15. Daniel Boone
    One of our biggest problems of late has been the -NAO always forming during a crappy Pacific. Also, phasing of systems forming formidable LP to our South are almost non existent anymore.
  16. Daniel Boone
    Kind of suspected that to be the case. Mentioned that to locals here couple days ago. Setup looks favorable for first Valley flakes as at the very least there should be enough residual moisture to produce at least small dendrites.
  17. Daniel Boone
    Nice area there Bob. Spent some time there.
  18. Daniel Boone
    Ur the ultimate Optimist Jeb !
  19. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, that right there could be problematic if realized and decent Amplitude.
  20. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, imo the main muting effect for the East if that does transpire would be a formidable -NAO.
  21. Daniel Boone
    CNN.. I don't know whether to believe it or not then. Lol
  22. Daniel Boone
    In a criticizing reply tweet to margavage he actually said it was a legit -NAO and then unloaded his opinion of rest of margavages tweet, lol
  23. Daniel Boone
    In a criticizing reply tweet to margavage he actually said it was a legit -NAO and then unloaded his opinion of rest of margavages tweet, lol
  24. Daniel Boone
    He couldn't be wrong. How dare you question dt the great. The self professed best.
  25. Daniel Boone
    Hopefully, that goa low will be further west.
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