Daniel Boone
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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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Yeah, that one worries me. I brought that one up couple days ago as a possible similar outcome in the Tenn.Valley Sub. Mild and stormy here. Severe and flooding in January .
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Yeah, true. So many things worked against us last Winter. I was in hooes a cold pool off Newfoundland would expand. There seems to be some correlation between it and sustainable 50-50's . I can't find much in the way of "documented official Studies" regarding that directly, however .
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Exactly. Agree. Many are now using the low Siberian snow along with the strong el nino as a guaranteed mild Eastern US Winter. The Siberian index has, imo, basically been shown as very little correlation the last several years. Last year had decent blocking but, south based and hooked up with the SE Ridge as we all know. Had it been further North and a 50-50 Lp prevalent, things would have been better even with the Nina and poor MJO states. Edit: just saw where Grit alluded to and addressed the same thing, lol
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I agree with you. Sure, he's a bit biased but, so are many here and elsewhere. Good post man.
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The peak is past here now. It was this past weekend. Typical peak here in Lee County is around the 12-15th. We've had several patchy frosts with a couple lower open valleys getting a light freeze a couple times. Lee County Airport being one.( 5 miles wsw of Jonesville, 1411 ft).
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I'm still not at ease regarding a decent Winter. This looks to be one of the latest first freezes on Record. Leaf droppage in much of the area is a week to 10 days behind schedule. Many, not all, years that leaves hung late went in to be either back loaded or mild Winter's. '94-95 was one such Winter. El nino as well. Very mild and stormy... Severe in January. Let's hope that's not where we're headed. Hopefully, blocking will be dominant and the MJO cooperates for us. Siberian snow cover is much below average per Judah Cohen. It's not really lived up to what he suggests the last several years. So, maybe blocking won't be a problem.
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May be the Atlantic Hurricane altering the flow being at least partially the Culprit.
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I think we start doing better once those stupid Atlantic Hurricanes stop. Part of the westward shift in the front and trough coming down is in response to the Hurricane helping to block the SE progression.
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Excellent work Terp !
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He is good. Carver keeps the score with him very well. Look forward to his outlook.
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Dt's write-up along with some other's regarding the PDO makes some sense. It has weakened considerably lately. Also, the cold pool near Baja will alter typical effects according to Dt. I don't care alot for DT personality wise tbh but, overall he is good at what he does as far as a Meteorological perspective goes. Another thing I like is the cold pool off Newfoundland. Look for the likelihood of the 50-50 Low this Winter, imo. Totally opposite of last year in that regard. So, hopefully we can manage a 63-64 type Nino Winter. Of course that was a colder era so, maybe a watered down version. However, that Winter was a bit late starting but, not what you'd call just back loaded as a major Snowfall hit our area Dec. 22 that dumped a general 6-12" upper Valley area wide.
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Wxrisk Winter Forecast is out. https://wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/_pda/2023/10/winter-2023-24.pdf
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About same total here. .73"
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Yeah, makes one want to try anything. l. Maybe a Divine Rod will work. Lol
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I hope/pray your area does get in on a wetter pattern. Sounds terrible there.
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We got a decent amount for a change. .67" . Area's close by me here in Lee County received a good bit more as they got the heavier showers today. Only light one's at my house today.
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I think it's going to come down to the MJO and HLB to whether we see basically canonical moderate to strong Nino conditions or a more colder snowier outcome. The Models may not pick up on that very well as ENSO is heavily weighed in them and HLB isn't as it's harder to pick up on and predict as we all know.
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Yeah, know what ur saying brother. I hadn't looked at it until just a few minutes ago. A little off from being canonical Nino Climo on their Temperature map. More warmth in the upper SE. No below average anywhere, even deep South, just equal chances.. Per usual for them however.
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Many times over the years Noaa/CPC broadbrushed Nino Winters with average Nino Climatology.
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If that is indeed the Case for this Winter, you've hit on the probable Reason.. at least from what we can logically see. Formidable upstream blocking will still mitigate the -PDO effects if it does rear up, providing HLB is present.
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Won't you just love it snowman if we get strong blocking and wind up colder and snowier than you want ala, 1968-69.
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Interestingly, the upper South (SWVA/ETN mainly) recorded a major Snowfall in November 1951., 15-20". That was lower elevation Totals , btw. Rather out of Character for an RNA Nino and November. Also, the other -PNA Avg Winters you listed were good Snowfall wise in these areas as well. The worst falls in the+PNA Winter's listed with 94-95 and 53-54 being paltry.
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Exactly what I was thinking. Looks almost opposite of what it should in much of the lower 48. Maybe the Countries that stand to gain financially from the Climate agenda had some influence on those Models.
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Yeah, looks to probably be a close to normal Winter temp wise in the SE , depending on whether HLB is dominate or not , below average if so. Snowfall around avg.. Above with HLB. That was my early opinion on Winter. After reading some of the posts here with probable outcomes with historical backing, I had started to lean maybe colder but, it does appear the Pac Jet will once again be strong. There is some correlation to a cold pool off Newfoundland and more sustainable 50-50 lp and a - NAO. That pool has developed in that area. Would like to see it strengthen and expand somewhat. Maybe we'll get favorable MJO and HLB in conjunction at times that'll offset a strong canonical Nino Pattern. Just an opinion from my rusty, antique mind so, disclaimer galore.
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Don't you just love the pick and choosers.. They have several Model's to use but, instead of at least coming up with an avg. of all, they pick what goes along with either what they want or think will be right, lol. Eric appears to be one of those.
