Daniel Boone
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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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Those pesky Atlantic Hurricanes continue to come along with bad timing and have been blocking the westerly flow and locking in a SER.
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Yeah, was there the dreaded -NAO/SE Ridge connection then like last Winter ?
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It was looking like it was trying to develop a month or so ago as Hurricane activity caused upwelling just south and east of Newfoundland. I was thinking that would continue or even expand somewhat but... There has been what appears to be some correlation. I'm thinking it has more to do with the 50-50, of which as we know, can assist the -NAO. Last Winter is an example for NA Blocking with no cold pool. So, that would suggest possibly no correlation to the NAO.
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The PDO is close to neutral now. Barring any turn back the other way, it shouldn't be a big problem. Many are touting how the -PDO along with a strong Nino dooms the Eastern US. Thing is the PDO isn't very negative nor is the Nino set to be very strong imo, nor is it predominantly east based, of which can be a killer for the Eastern States.
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Thanks for the encouragement Larry. I knew the PDO was near neutral and was thinking at least we shouldn't have the -PDO effects of what some are still touting. All those Winters you listed were above average Snowfall here. And that was from those era's Averages.
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Pay. Like you, the dryness is a concern but, as you said many times Winter's are cold afterward. Also, agree with you in better chances to track and for more snow than last couple Winters.
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Yeah. Been reading and discussing in the main forum some. Some are still hammering the -PDO as the main Driver this Winter. I just don't see nor get that. It's basically neutral now. However, as far as the Winter outcome, still uncertainty looms large. Just reading Terps post touting the crappy '94-95 Winter as a decent Analogue he is using. There are some indexes that closely match it at this juncture. I'm definitely rooting against such outcome but, can't deny the possibility is there. No Winter's are carbon copies so, even if that general 500mb pattern set up, it wouldn't be exact and it doesn't take alot to go from getting barely missed or getting slammed ; 40 and rain to 30 and snow. A matter of just a few miles sometimes.
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Yeah, that one worries me. I brought that one up couple days ago as a possible similar outcome in the Tenn.Valley Sub. Mild and stormy here. Severe and flooding in January .
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Yeah, true. So many things worked against us last Winter. I was in hooes a cold pool off Newfoundland would expand. There seems to be some correlation between it and sustainable 50-50's . I can't find much in the way of "documented official Studies" regarding that directly, however .
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Exactly. Agree. Many are now using the low Siberian snow along with the strong el nino as a guaranteed mild Eastern US Winter. The Siberian index has, imo, basically been shown as very little correlation the last several years. Last year had decent blocking but, south based and hooked up with the SE Ridge as we all know. Had it been further North and a 50-50 Lp prevalent, things would have been better even with the Nina and poor MJO states. Edit: just saw where Grit alluded to and addressed the same thing, lol
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I agree with you. Sure, he's a bit biased but, so are many here and elsewhere. Good post man.
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The peak is past here now. It was this past weekend. Typical peak here in Lee County is around the 12-15th. We've had several patchy frosts with a couple lower open valleys getting a light freeze a couple times. Lee County Airport being one.( 5 miles wsw of Jonesville, 1411 ft).
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I'm still not at ease regarding a decent Winter. This looks to be one of the latest first freezes on Record. Leaf droppage in much of the area is a week to 10 days behind schedule. Many, not all, years that leaves hung late went in to be either back loaded or mild Winter's. '94-95 was one such Winter. El nino as well. Very mild and stormy... Severe in January. Let's hope that's not where we're headed. Hopefully, blocking will be dominant and the MJO cooperates for us. Siberian snow cover is much below average per Judah Cohen. It's not really lived up to what he suggests the last several years. So, maybe blocking won't be a problem.
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May be the Atlantic Hurricane altering the flow being at least partially the Culprit.
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I think we start doing better once those stupid Atlantic Hurricanes stop. Part of the westward shift in the front and trough coming down is in response to the Hurricane helping to block the SE progression.
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Excellent work Terp !
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He is good. Carver keeps the score with him very well. Look forward to his outlook.
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Dt's write-up along with some other's regarding the PDO makes some sense. It has weakened considerably lately. Also, the cold pool near Baja will alter typical effects according to Dt. I don't care alot for DT personality wise tbh but, overall he is good at what he does as far as a Meteorological perspective goes. Another thing I like is the cold pool off Newfoundland. Look for the likelihood of the 50-50 Low this Winter, imo. Totally opposite of last year in that regard. So, hopefully we can manage a 63-64 type Nino Winter. Of course that was a colder era so, maybe a watered down version. However, that Winter was a bit late starting but, not what you'd call just back loaded as a major Snowfall hit our area Dec. 22 that dumped a general 6-12" upper Valley area wide.
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Wxrisk Winter Forecast is out. https://wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/_pda/2023/10/winter-2023-24.pdf
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About same total here. .73"
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Yeah, makes one want to try anything. l. Maybe a Divine Rod will work. Lol
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I hope/pray your area does get in on a wetter pattern. Sounds terrible there.
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We got a decent amount for a change. .67" . Area's close by me here in Lee County received a good bit more as they got the heavier showers today. Only light one's at my house today.
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I think it's going to come down to the MJO and HLB to whether we see basically canonical moderate to strong Nino conditions or a more colder snowier outcome. The Models may not pick up on that very well as ENSO is heavily weighed in them and HLB isn't as it's harder to pick up on and predict as we all know.
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Yeah, know what ur saying brother. I hadn't looked at it until just a few minutes ago. A little off from being canonical Nino Climo on their Temperature map. More warmth in the upper SE. No below average anywhere, even deep South, just equal chances.. Per usual for them however.
