Daniel Boone
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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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As in politics anymore, the one accusing the other is the one pushing an agenda it seems.
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I'm thinking a couple -PDO/Nino Winter's in the 1960's featured a similar look as the Cansips. Of course, a different climate era so, shouldn't be as cold. The Avg to above average Snowfall wasn't confined to the West those Winters.
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If that comes to fruition, Northern Plains and Southern Canada Snow Cover's going to suffer or disappear. Not usually too alarming at that juncture but, it does extend well North in western Canada. Chinook ! Regardless, let's hope it's wrong. Hudson and Eastern Canada looks fine and would probably be adding snow pack.
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Yeah, very interesting and worth mulling over. Whatever is squelching the STJ to oblivion in the South quite possibly is the same "thing" that did it those year's. Just need to find the source. Could be something to do with the Baja cold pool. What areas of the N. Hemisphere that are showing El nino prints , appear to be west of typical as well. So, probably something bigger as a whole as far as 500 mb mechanical atmospheric Driver's, although, the Baja deal probably is affecting the eastern STJ extension. (From Baja eastward). Could be the IOD, maybe even Tunga strat/trop association. Not well versed in that other than effects at HL of which sample size is not great and that is of Volcanic Ash, not moisture. What have you came up with Carver ? Forgot to mention the SW Atlantic Tropical activity. It's definitely having an effect as we both concluded. Question is, will that disturbed area help or hurt the SE/TN Valley when the STJ finally holds up enough to traverse the area. If the STJ is strong enough, it should pull that moisture laden airmass into it. However, if not , it may not help at all.
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Cosgrove's outlook looks good. Good reasoning per usual from him. Only thing that is a bit puzzling is his Analogue list, however. Some of those weren't Nino's. Apparently other parameters were used in coming up with those. I used to converse with Larry. I may give him a buzz.
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Sadly, as many of us know, SSW can sometimes mess up a good pattern for us.
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Lol. Hadn't saw this post by you. Was replying to other. Sounds like I'm on same page as Coz. Knowing Coz is leaning colder for December makes me feel more confident about it. He's hard to beat. I think you nailed it on why the lack of landfalling canes Buddy. Makes sense. I'm going to go check Larry's outlook out.
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Y I saw Cansips and overall it looks pretty good. I do think it may be overplaying the -PDO as it is close to neutral. Also, if the AO and NAO go as guidance suggests December could be colder than suggested. I hadn't saw Cozs Outlook. Will give it a read.
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Yeah true. We lucked out in early September in Lee County at least with the Supercell that dumped 2-3 inches. Wasn't for that we'd been in serious danger even then. I'm hoping and praying the STJ will fire up soon and it'll average a bit further N than typical Nino Climo. With what is looking more likely of a -AO and NAO continuing on average, so Systems riding along it should occasionally interact with the STJ.
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Really worried much of the area's going to have to deal with that. I pray not.
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So far, any attempt of Models showing a trend to positive for both indexes have quickly reverted back to negative. Hopefully the CFS is right here. If so, we may not have a mild December. Cansips is obviously placing some emphasis on a -PDO , and of course alot on the Nino as Grit alluded to. It doesn't appear to give much credence to blocking in December and tbh, imo, not as much as it should as the Blocking it's showing for Jan/Feb. Just my has been antique old school thought's fwiw.
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If you take into account the EC' s warm bias, it's not a bad Outlook. The Snowfall map doesn't match up with the Precip/Temp Maps in the Central/Southern Apps. Of course the Snowfall thing is more of a novelty anyway. Just puzzled how it derived that look particularly for the Southern Apps, however. Just noticed that was the Canadian you referenced. I just looked at the EC. Comment is in respect to the EC Outlook.
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Well, as far as Temperature map, looks as a possible outcome, although the EC has a warm bias. So taken verbatim, with deducted warm bias, our area would be in slightly below average. As far as precip, looks good. Snowfall map, uh, doesn't make much sense particularly for the Apps, when you compare the precip map and temperature map.
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Thanks for posting that John ! I was hoping you'd chime in. I recall, as I'm sure you do too, of Rivers, creaks and ponds being completely frozen and snow covered. Amazing time !
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Yep. The good ole days for sure ! 78-79 was also snowy here after a late start. Autumn was mild. December cold but rainy. They were having to ship snow to eastern resorts from out west via rail . Then cold and snow set in in early January and lasted till mid March.
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Yep ! Those late '70's Winter's were fun for Winter weather lover's. '77-78 was even snowier and lasted longer. Snow covered the ground here from early December till early March ! It wasn't quite as cold as '76-77 as far as lowest temperature but, was also constantly cold. Snowfalls were bigger that Winter. Totalled 72" in Pennington gap for snowiest on Record there. 76-77 nearly 40". Both were weak Nino. Although, '77-78 probably moreso neutral.
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Yeah, I was 14 that Winter and already keeping a Weather Diary. That was coldest November on Record. December and January were either coldest or within top 3 in Tennessee Valley. Snow covered shaded , protected areas at my home in Lee County from early December till mid February . It was over 2 feet deep at one point in the shade in January . It was so frozen, as we had some freezing rain at times that month that hardened it, that w actually sledded off the hills in our slick bottoms 70's shoes like you would skis on top of the snow !
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Yeah, really gained traction lately. Looking good !
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Those pesky Atlantic Hurricanes continue to come along with bad timing and have been blocking the westerly flow and locking in a SER.
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Yeah, was there the dreaded -NAO/SE Ridge connection then like last Winter ?
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It was looking like it was trying to develop a month or so ago as Hurricane activity caused upwelling just south and east of Newfoundland. I was thinking that would continue or even expand somewhat but... There has been what appears to be some correlation. I'm thinking it has more to do with the 50-50, of which as we know, can assist the -NAO. Last Winter is an example for NA Blocking with no cold pool. So, that would suggest possibly no correlation to the NAO.
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The PDO is close to neutral now. Barring any turn back the other way, it shouldn't be a big problem. Many are touting how the -PDO along with a strong Nino dooms the Eastern US. Thing is the PDO isn't very negative nor is the Nino set to be very strong imo, nor is it predominantly east based, of which can be a killer for the Eastern States.
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Thanks for the encouragement Larry. I knew the PDO was near neutral and was thinking at least we shouldn't have the -PDO effects of what some are still touting. All those Winters you listed were above average Snowfall here. And that was from those era's Averages.
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Pay. Like you, the dryness is a concern but, as you said many times Winter's are cold afterward. Also, agree with you in better chances to track and for more snow than last couple Winters.
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Yeah. Been reading and discussing in the main forum some. Some are still hammering the -PDO as the main Driver this Winter. I just don't see nor get that. It's basically neutral now. However, as far as the Winter outcome, still uncertainty looms large. Just reading Terps post touting the crappy '94-95 Winter as a decent Analogue he is using. There are some indexes that closely match it at this juncture. I'm definitely rooting against such outcome but, can't deny the possibility is there. No Winter's are carbon copies so, even if that general 500mb pattern set up, it wouldn't be exact and it doesn't take alot to go from getting barely missed or getting slammed ; 40 and rain to 30 and snow. A matter of just a few miles sometimes.
