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Daniel Boone

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  1. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, that's always a concern particularly in strong Ninos. Higher elevations less so. The super Nino's of 82-83 and 97-98 produced a decent amount of Snow in East Tenn/ SWVA. 82-83 Seasonal Totals were above average in many locations ( that was in relation to the higher normals back then). 97-98 featured a 2 crippling Snowstorms. The Late January one dumped 10-16" in the Tri- Cities. Over 3 feet in portions of Wise and Russell County VA. The early February one dumped 1-2 feet in portions of SEKY and the Central and northern Plateau in Tennessee. Seasonal Totals ranged from below normal in some Valley locations to above in elevated areas.
  2. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, I saw that too. Hopefully, we'll get lucky this go around. I agree on the strength of Nino's. I've always preferred weak . However, Moderate is usually good snow wise particularly in the eastern Valley providing it's not east based. The location of the forcing is really the main thing. Even strong as long as it's central centered can still work. Basin wide like this one will probably be back and forth until weakening come February and March. Strong blocking along with mjo cold phases can make for some decent chances for us before then. I will say, somewhere, at some point, within the Ohio/Tenn Valley areas will get dumped on as the STJ will be moisture laden.
  3. Daniel Boone
    Problem with Euro is it does have a warm bias and the bigger thing, imo, is it's defect of holding energy back in the SW. That changes the whole outcome many times in at range with it. I've not looked today but, am guessing it is doing that and therefore the trough is further west in response to that or just shunted from dropping on down in the East in response.
  4. Daniel Boone
    So sorry to hear of that brother. Praying for you and her and the loved one's .
  5. Daniel Boone
    Models are still not far from showing a pattern that could produce a legitimate Snowstorm. Either overrunning or System oriented. Canadian flirts with it but, weakens and shears it to a mainly light event. 18z GFS takes a significant Snowfall up the Ohio Valley. A few rather minor adjustments could do the trick.
  6. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, see that. I think basically Eric thinks the Eastern area will warm to that level. Even if it did, it wouldn't still be just " East based" as he says
  7. Daniel Boone
    As you know, Eric Webb , snowman 19 begs to differ saying it's going to East based. Eric gave his reasons. Hopefully ur right Chuck. If warming does propagate eastward per Webb's reasoning, I still can't see how you'd get East based. Basin wide, possibly.
  8. Daniel Boone
    Exactly.
  9. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, know what ur saying with the fwiw, lol. Seems just as things are looking like they're going to pan out something throws a monkey wrench and shatters everything. That SW pullback tucked under Trough that was a thorn last year and that we feared as a possible occurrence again seems to want to happen again and pump a SE Ridge at times. Hopefully, it won't be deep and can be countered with upstream Blocking. Rooting for the Canadian .
  10. Daniel Boone
    Thanks buddy ! Knew you'd know. I had 51 for 52. Great information!!!
  11. Daniel Boone
    Wouldn't it be nice to get an old fashioned major November Snowstorm. Some of the Eastern Valleys biggest Snowfalls actually occured in November. The early 1950's featured one in 1950, 51 and 53 I believe. These were deep Snowfalls. Knoxville and Kingsport received around 18" in the '51 Storm. My area, Lee County received 18-20 from that one. 15-28" from the 1950 one(Great Appalachian Storm). The 53 one not as deep but still a respectable 4-10". The 60's and 70's also featured a couple but, not the magnitude of the early 50's Storms. My area received 8" in '71 . 12" in Pennington gap and 16" Big Stone gap in 1977. Middle Tenn. received a major Snowfall in early November 1966 . John probably has nore detailed info regarding this Subject. Paging John....
  12. Daniel Boone
    Yeah. Hopefully it pans out for us Winter weather lover's. I'm a bit skeptical as tropical forcing from the STJ appears to be going from almost non-existent to full blown heavy duty all at once on some guidance. That may shunt any deep arctic air push. However, with that much blocking, alk to Grelnd. It may . Or if a strong System rides along that Jet and wraps and pulls that air down. Either way, we'd e looking at high chances of frozen precip.
  13. Daniel Boone
    Think couple other Models were advertising that for then a few days ago; showing that SPV Piece dropping into Great Lakes.
  14. Daniel Boone
    Wound up with .30" here. I see area's just north of here did well. Less to the south. Multiple fire's here in Lee County as well. Alot of acreage has been burned.
  15. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, saw that after posting that. I'm still a bit gun-shy. 18z ensembles look good for last week of November. If they pan out I will lean toward a decent Winter.
  16. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, if GEFS turns out right, I'll probably lean overall mild Winter and 94-95 Analogue back up. More times than not, late November is an indicator of whether we have a milder or cooler than average Winter. That freaking warm pool off Japan I think is a thorn.
  17. Daniel Boone
    Severe Drought in this neck of the woods. Looks to finally start getting chipped away.
  18. Daniel Boone
    For all we know, they may very well be posters on here. I have a couple Suspects. I'm sure Webber at least reads the boards. As far as Rounder Roundy, not sure.
  19. Daniel Boone
    Maybe he just identifies as a Meteorologist. Sure beginning to look that way.
  20. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, looking like a period to watch for possible first significant snowfall. May be back to the famed Dec 5 Spotlight Day.
  21. Daniel Boone
    As we know, those change as often as a 20 yo woman getting ready for a night on the Town. Odds favor a warmup around mid December. If you go total Nino = warm December then you're going to swear by runs like that one and declare it. Colder Nino December's generally had a mild prelude as well but, went back cold.
  22. Daniel Boone
    Hopefully it'll go low amp or into cod in those areas. Possible with SST Configuration.
  23. Daniel Boone
    Right on man ! From my record keeping going back to the 70's , that is what they indicate as well. I'm just hoping this new climate era won't cause it to be different.
  24. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, CFS Weeklies looking good as well. -EPO Ftw. Hopefully these depictions come to fruition more times than not and not the tucking under sw trough and eastern ridging . Would setup a great Winter Pattern.
  25. Daniel Boone
    The current Administration and UN says he's right. lol
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