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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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Exactly.
- 1,295 replies
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- wishcasting
- almost winter
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(and 1 more)
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Yeah, know what ur saying with the fwiw, lol. Seems just as things are looking like they're going to pan out something throws a monkey wrench and shatters everything. That SW pullback tucked under Trough that was a thorn last year and that we feared as a possible occurrence again seems to want to happen again and pump a SE Ridge at times. Hopefully, it won't be deep and can be countered with upstream Blocking. Rooting for the Canadian .
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Thanks buddy ! Knew you'd know. I had 51 for 52. Great information!!!
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Wouldn't it be nice to get an old fashioned major November Snowstorm. Some of the Eastern Valleys biggest Snowfalls actually occured in November. The early 1950's featured one in 1950, 51 and 53 I believe. These were deep Snowfalls. Knoxville and Kingsport received around 18" in the '51 Storm. My area, Lee County received 18-20 from that one. 15-28" from the 1950 one(Great Appalachian Storm). The 53 one not as deep but still a respectable 4-10". The 60's and 70's also featured a couple but, not the magnitude of the early 50's Storms. My area received 8" in '71 . 12" in Pennington gap and 16" Big Stone gap in 1977. Middle Tenn. received a major Snowfall in early November 1966 . John probably has nore detailed info regarding this Subject. Paging John....
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Yeah. Hopefully it pans out for us Winter weather lover's. I'm a bit skeptical as tropical forcing from the STJ appears to be going from almost non-existent to full blown heavy duty all at once on some guidance. That may shunt any deep arctic air push. However, with that much blocking, alk to Grelnd. It may . Or if a strong System rides along that Jet and wraps and pulls that air down. Either way, we'd e looking at high chances of frozen precip.
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Think couple other Models were advertising that for then a few days ago; showing that SPV Piece dropping into Great Lakes.
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Wound up with .30" here. I see area's just north of here did well. Less to the south. Multiple fire's here in Lee County as well. Alot of acreage has been burned.
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Yeah, saw that after posting that. I'm still a bit gun-shy. 18z ensembles look good for last week of November. If they pan out I will lean toward a decent Winter.
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Yeah, if GEFS turns out right, I'll probably lean overall mild Winter and 94-95 Analogue back up. More times than not, late November is an indicator of whether we have a milder or cooler than average Winter. That freaking warm pool off Japan I think is a thorn.
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Severe Drought in this neck of the woods. Looks to finally start getting chipped away.
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For all we know, they may very well be posters on here. I have a couple Suspects. I'm sure Webber at least reads the boards. As far as Rounder Roundy, not sure.
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Maybe he just identifies as a Meteorologist. Sure beginning to look that way.
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Yeah, looking like a period to watch for possible first significant snowfall. May be back to the famed Dec 5 Spotlight Day.
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Fall 2023 Medium/Long Range Discussion
Daniel Boone replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
As we know, those change as often as a 20 yo woman getting ready for a night on the Town. Odds favor a warmup around mid December. If you go total Nino = warm December then you're going to swear by runs like that one and declare it. Colder Nino December's generally had a mild prelude as well but, went back cold. -
Fall 2023 Medium/Long Range Discussion
Daniel Boone replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Hopefully it'll go low amp or into cod in those areas. Possible with SST Configuration. -
Right on man ! From my record keeping going back to the 70's , that is what they indicate as well. I'm just hoping this new climate era won't cause it to be different.
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Yeah, CFS Weeklies looking good as well. -EPO Ftw. Hopefully these depictions come to fruition more times than not and not the tucking under sw trough and eastern ridging . Would setup a great Winter Pattern.
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The current Administration and UN says he's right. lol
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I'm surprised you didn't get a weenie from the usual suspect over that outlook.
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Good work man !
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Big difference in results with those 2 Winters too. February in particular. Feb. 2015 was spectacular.
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Yeah. Marginal Temps played a part as elevated area's got clocked on several occasions during the stronger Ninos, whereas lower eles would get mix or rain, therefore creating a greater than normal difference between the Valleys and the higher elevations. As far as western areas, Nino's tend to favor Eastern irt Snow, particularly when blocking is present, imo.
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Great Job man !
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Exactly.
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Yeah, really. Lol. Of course to some, pretty much everyone on this forum is not nearly as knowledgeable as eric. The redtaggers are just novelty mets. I don't disrespect Eric, he's a good Met. However, many are on here and shouldn't be disrespected either. That includes enthusiasts as well. Many are just as knowledgeable as degreed Mets.