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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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2023 Mountains Spring/Summer Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Tyler Penland's topic in Southeastern States
Yeah, boring if something unforseen doesn't happen. Dry up this way once again. Praying we get some rain from that disturbance tomorrow. -
Pretty much my thoughts as well Jeff. With the PDO State, I fear a basin wide Nino, even if moderate may be of little benefit unless extreme HL blocking manifests; strong predominantly east based...Torch. If more of A Modoki sets up , even a strong Nino along with formidable HLB I think we'd come out at least half way decent as forcing there should poke an occasional + PNA in conjunction with HLB and get the job done .
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Good point about PNA . The PDO may mess with any sustainable +PNA. Seems we just never get Driver's to sync and align for a decent Winter in the East anymore. If the Nino becomes predominant Modoki and HLB is dominate we should still manage half way decent at least, even with the PDO issue.
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95-96 was weak Nina. 94-95 was Nino and a warm one at that.
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Yep !
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Morning low of 47.
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Yeah, same here; just 0.15" this go around . After finally dousing away the drought last Weekend it's right back to the dry dome.
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I have one of those units and it has served very well for 2 years. Very accurate Station, all parameters other than wind speed of wich appears a bit low . I would think more than likely Batteries in outside unit. If new one's doesn't work, could be contact moisture within the unit as sometimes the seal around the internal components can crack or come unsealed. Happens with high end Stations as well. I've had Sensor failures and they don't fail simultaneously unless for whatever reason the Unit gets fried. I have 3 Stations now and just lost contact with wind unit with one. Probably corroded or dead solar cell as it's been going for over 3 years. Dread the task of taking it down and getting it back up.
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Yeah, we'll really be hurting in the Lee, Wise and Scott County area's as much of this Region missed out on the abundant Rains during Summer.
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Amazing ! Wound up with a quarter of an inch here yesterday. 0.03" today. Paltry. Same story since April. It's as if we have some kind of Shield around here this Summer. August Total still above Average due to first half. 6.04" . May, June, July were each well below.
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Sure is man. Totalled 0.27" yesterday. Enough to keep grass alive but, nothing for water levels. Sad. The persistence of the Pattern this Summer is rather uncanny. Complexes continue to travel in pretty much the same path ; not much shift at all. Nino really showing it's print along with other rather anomalous parameters. I'm thinking the massive Wildfires and the excessive smoke are having some effect, not only on sun filtering and T's but, also larger scale. What's your take John ?
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Amazing how this patterns been. Very dry here as have only received 1.54" this Month with under 2 inches last month !
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Wise Virginia, recorded 3 inches of Snow May 7 1989. Pennington gap, Va a Dusting that Morning with an afternoon high of 42. Eastern Ky and portions of extreme SWVA received up to 10 inches May 20, 1894. Even Lexington recorded 6 inches. Another System brought Eastern Ky several inches the 24th.
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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023
Daniel Boone replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
Yep, never fails when the pattern is what we had during Winter. -
Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Daniel Boone replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yep. We knew this would happen after the terrible non productive Winter we've had. -
Yep, sickening but, not surprising.
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Good post . It appears we're honing in on what the cause of the SER on every Steroid there is, IS. We were thinking it probable the western Atlantic SST'S were at least part of the culprit. The linking of the SER with the big - NAO has been the puzzle, really, as in times past was almost unheard of. I think you've came up with the main reason PSU. Makes sense with those boiling Gulf SST'S.
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Speaking of 1979. You are spot on and it was strong upstream blocking that produced for us
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Yeah, looks pretty similar.
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You know, you have a good point there as it does appear to be moving that way. Some odd but, interesting things going on for sure.
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Yep. Sure sure was and did .
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Probably a combination of that plus other factors like the warm western Atlantic SST'S and possibly some fairly unknown driver's as Terp alluded to. The SER dominance and occasional NAO block hookup for instance used to be rare. If this continues during Nino then we can speculate, research and see what we can come up with as far as cause and maybe get a clearer picture. The warmer climo would play a part as far as the NS diving as the deeper the cold up north the more the press as we know. Also, the PNA Height of course. Even with that, the SER seems to still want to block anymore it seems.
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Yeah, it does appear NS Systems are not diving as far south overall as they did back in the day. There's been some fluke , throw back years (i.e,95-96) that Miller B's and Clippers dove well South but, not many.
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March 2023 Mid-Long Range Discussion thread
Daniel Boone replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
The NWS COOP Station's are owned and setup by them. You are correct in some of those not being set up to meet their "official guidelines". One example is the Pennington gap station. It's TH Sensor is about 12 Feet from a metal building (heat source). That is way off the 30 ft away structure guideline, let alone a metal structure. As far as the Airport problems, there are more than one. The Temp. FAA Guidelines we know are one, another is siting as well. The Lee County Airport ie is located fairly close to a Metal Hangar, thereby getting heat from it occasionally. It is no wonder our Model's have issues and our Climate Data isn't accurate, let alone some of the less than par Observer's at some Co-op Station's. -
March 2023 Mid-Long Range Discussion thread
Daniel Boone replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, for the most part they are accurate and many are high end Stations. I have 3 in the Network at various locations.