Daniel Boone
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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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You can keep same.
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2023-2024 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread
Daniel Boone replied to The Alchemist's topic in Southeastern States
Yeah, it's really depressing to say the least. Forest fires are really smoking up the air. Really messing up my Sinuses. -
?? We were referring to patterns. If a pattern was exactly same as late 70s in how it would still be below normal in today's climate. Otherwise, could go either way as far as winter. HLB I think is our main ticket we need this year.
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Yeah, definitely more evidence.
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Exactly point I was making. Glad you followed up. I thought about it after posting that and it would still be as you said way below normal since "normal" or average temps have been raised.
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Not only them but, several pro mets here as well. I don't know why you are so hellbent on going against everyone here that sees things differently. Granted, it could go either way at this juncture. Minus blocking , that latest update Apparently, you want a mild Winter. Your liking, nothing wrong with that.( With economic problems, would be a good thing itr). If not, why want to go all out against those who would like to see at least an average one after so many mild one's ?
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Roundy rounder will be making his rounds
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The MJO should progress along with the favorable SST's in at least 7-8 and probably on to 1. The PDO isn't very negative and doesn't look to get any moreso.
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Yeah, MEI actually dropped some. The N. Atlantic actually is now looking favorable for blocking. The sst in goa are supportive of Alaskan ridging. SST's west and south of there may try to present a problem with getting a typical Nino Aleutian low as they are a bit warm. The Ural Hp connecting over the pole looks good for HLB as you alluded to in the Winter thread.. A -AO/-NAO combo along with mainly central based Nino is going to pay off somewhere. Saw on main forum the NHEM 500 mb composite from 2009 at this juncture looked very similar. I used to do alot of research comparing composites from Analogue years. Some went a similar path but many didn't. So, hard to get hopes real high just yet although the SST progression in area's mentioned do increase the hopes.
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Good discussion guy's. If had time I'd chime in. Btw, the n. Atlantic SST'S are looking better wrt assisting the - NAO and 50-50. With the strong Nino and warm SST's around the Aleutians and Japan the PAC may argue for a Western Trough even with a +PNA at least part of the time so, hopefully N.Atlantic blocking will be prevalent and formidable. Of course, will once again run the risk of ser/ nao linkage unfortunately if that western Trough digs enough imo.
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Good point. Not that I think this winter won't be overall mild, I just think that regardless of a couple degrees warmer climate, wherever the trough setsup predominantly will still average colder than " normal". If we were dealt exact same pattern, as the late 70's for instance, we'd still average below normal for the Winter Season. May not be 6-8 degrees but...
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I couldn't come up with the right emoji. It was a joke. I agree with you. You're not a nobody brother. It's many of the " somebody's" that in essence are the real nobody's.
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Odds are with that look.
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Being who he is, he wouldn't be able to handle that
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Yeah. Like the change in the N. Atlantic. Definitely more blocking oriented signature. May even have a decent shot at decent 50-50's this year. GOA may promote ridging there. Aleutian low may be west of Aleutians or possibly even South with the SST look.
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HL blocking was prominent in the 60's Winter's.
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Right with you on that brother.
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Exactly. You got Webb there, lol.
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As in politics anymore, the one accusing the other is the one pushing an agenda it seems.
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I'm thinking a couple -PDO/Nino Winter's in the 1960's featured a similar look as the Cansips. Of course, a different climate era so, shouldn't be as cold. The Avg to above average Snowfall wasn't confined to the West those Winters.
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If that comes to fruition, Northern Plains and Southern Canada Snow Cover's going to suffer or disappear. Not usually too alarming at that juncture but, it does extend well North in western Canada. Chinook ! Regardless, let's hope it's wrong. Hudson and Eastern Canada looks fine and would probably be adding snow pack.
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Yeah, very interesting and worth mulling over. Whatever is squelching the STJ to oblivion in the South quite possibly is the same "thing" that did it those year's. Just need to find the source. Could be something to do with the Baja cold pool. What areas of the N. Hemisphere that are showing El nino prints , appear to be west of typical as well. So, probably something bigger as a whole as far as 500 mb mechanical atmospheric Driver's, although, the Baja deal probably is affecting the eastern STJ extension. (From Baja eastward). Could be the IOD, maybe even Tunga strat/trop association. Not well versed in that other than effects at HL of which sample size is not great and that is of Volcanic Ash, not moisture. What have you came up with Carver ? Forgot to mention the SW Atlantic Tropical activity. It's definitely having an effect as we both concluded. Question is, will that disturbed area help or hurt the SE/TN Valley when the STJ finally holds up enough to traverse the area. If the STJ is strong enough, it should pull that moisture laden airmass into it. However, if not , it may not help at all.
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Cosgrove's outlook looks good. Good reasoning per usual from him. Only thing that is a bit puzzling is his Analogue list, however. Some of those weren't Nino's. Apparently other parameters were used in coming up with those. I used to converse with Larry. I may give him a buzz.
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Sadly, as many of us know, SSW can sometimes mess up a good pattern for us.
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Lol. Hadn't saw this post by you. Was replying to other. Sounds like I'm on same page as Coz. Knowing Coz is leaning colder for December makes me feel more confident about it. He's hard to beat. I think you nailed it on why the lack of landfalling canes Buddy. Makes sense. I'm going to go check Larry's outlook out.
