Daniel Boone
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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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Y I saw Cansips and overall it looks pretty good. I do think it may be overplaying the -PDO as it is close to neutral. Also, if the AO and NAO go as guidance suggests December could be colder than suggested. I hadn't saw Cozs Outlook. Will give it a read.
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Yeah true. We lucked out in early September in Lee County at least with the Supercell that dumped 2-3 inches. Wasn't for that we'd been in serious danger even then. I'm hoping and praying the STJ will fire up soon and it'll average a bit further N than typical Nino Climo. With what is looking more likely of a -AO and NAO continuing on average, so Systems riding along it should occasionally interact with the STJ.
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Really worried much of the area's going to have to deal with that. I pray not.
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So far, any attempt of Models showing a trend to positive for both indexes have quickly reverted back to negative. Hopefully the CFS is right here. If so, we may not have a mild December. Cansips is obviously placing some emphasis on a -PDO , and of course alot on the Nino as Grit alluded to. It doesn't appear to give much credence to blocking in December and tbh, imo, not as much as it should as the Blocking it's showing for Jan/Feb. Just my has been antique old school thought's fwiw.
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If you take into account the EC' s warm bias, it's not a bad Outlook. The Snowfall map doesn't match up with the Precip/Temp Maps in the Central/Southern Apps. Of course the Snowfall thing is more of a novelty anyway. Just puzzled how it derived that look particularly for the Southern Apps, however. Just noticed that was the Canadian you referenced. I just looked at the EC. Comment is in respect to the EC Outlook.
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Well, as far as Temperature map, looks as a possible outcome, although the EC has a warm bias. So taken verbatim, with deducted warm bias, our area would be in slightly below average. As far as precip, looks good. Snowfall map, uh, doesn't make much sense particularly for the Apps, when you compare the precip map and temperature map.
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Thanks for posting that John ! I was hoping you'd chime in. I recall, as I'm sure you do too, of Rivers, creaks and ponds being completely frozen and snow covered. Amazing time !
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Yep. The good ole days for sure ! 78-79 was also snowy here after a late start. Autumn was mild. December cold but rainy. They were having to ship snow to eastern resorts from out west via rail . Then cold and snow set in in early January and lasted till mid March.
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Yep ! Those late '70's Winter's were fun for Winter weather lover's. '77-78 was even snowier and lasted longer. Snow covered the ground here from early December till early March ! It wasn't quite as cold as '76-77 as far as lowest temperature but, was also constantly cold. Snowfalls were bigger that Winter. Totalled 72" in Pennington gap for snowiest on Record there. 76-77 nearly 40". Both were weak Nino. Although, '77-78 probably moreso neutral.
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Yeah, I was 14 that Winter and already keeping a Weather Diary. That was coldest November on Record. December and January were either coldest or within top 3 in Tennessee Valley. Snow covered shaded , protected areas at my home in Lee County from early December till mid February . It was over 2 feet deep at one point in the shade in January . It was so frozen, as we had some freezing rain at times that month that hardened it, that w actually sledded off the hills in our slick bottoms 70's shoes like you would skis on top of the snow !
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Yeah, really gained traction lately. Looking good !
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Those pesky Atlantic Hurricanes continue to come along with bad timing and have been blocking the westerly flow and locking in a SER.
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Yeah, was there the dreaded -NAO/SE Ridge connection then like last Winter ?
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It was looking like it was trying to develop a month or so ago as Hurricane activity caused upwelling just south and east of Newfoundland. I was thinking that would continue or even expand somewhat but... There has been what appears to be some correlation. I'm thinking it has more to do with the 50-50, of which as we know, can assist the -NAO. Last Winter is an example for NA Blocking with no cold pool. So, that would suggest possibly no correlation to the NAO.
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The PDO is close to neutral now. Barring any turn back the other way, it shouldn't be a big problem. Many are touting how the -PDO along with a strong Nino dooms the Eastern US. Thing is the PDO isn't very negative nor is the Nino set to be very strong imo, nor is it predominantly east based, of which can be a killer for the Eastern States.
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Thanks for the encouragement Larry. I knew the PDO was near neutral and was thinking at least we shouldn't have the -PDO effects of what some are still touting. All those Winters you listed were above average Snowfall here. And that was from those era's Averages.
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Pay. Like you, the dryness is a concern but, as you said many times Winter's are cold afterward. Also, agree with you in better chances to track and for more snow than last couple Winters.
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Yeah. Been reading and discussing in the main forum some. Some are still hammering the -PDO as the main Driver this Winter. I just don't see nor get that. It's basically neutral now. However, as far as the Winter outcome, still uncertainty looms large. Just reading Terps post touting the crappy '94-95 Winter as a decent Analogue he is using. There are some indexes that closely match it at this juncture. I'm definitely rooting against such outcome but, can't deny the possibility is there. No Winter's are carbon copies so, even if that general 500mb pattern set up, it wouldn't be exact and it doesn't take alot to go from getting barely missed or getting slammed ; 40 and rain to 30 and snow. A matter of just a few miles sometimes.
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Yeah, that one worries me. I brought that one up couple days ago as a possible similar outcome in the Tenn.Valley Sub. Mild and stormy here. Severe and flooding in January .
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Yeah, true. So many things worked against us last Winter. I was in hooes a cold pool off Newfoundland would expand. There seems to be some correlation between it and sustainable 50-50's . I can't find much in the way of "documented official Studies" regarding that directly, however .
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Exactly. Agree. Many are now using the low Siberian snow along with the strong el nino as a guaranteed mild Eastern US Winter. The Siberian index has, imo, basically been shown as very little correlation the last several years. Last year had decent blocking but, south based and hooked up with the SE Ridge as we all know. Had it been further North and a 50-50 Lp prevalent, things would have been better even with the Nina and poor MJO states. Edit: just saw where Grit alluded to and addressed the same thing, lol
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I agree with you. Sure, he's a bit biased but, so are many here and elsewhere. Good post man.
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The peak is past here now. It was this past weekend. Typical peak here in Lee County is around the 12-15th. We've had several patchy frosts with a couple lower open valleys getting a light freeze a couple times. Lee County Airport being one.( 5 miles wsw of Jonesville, 1411 ft).
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I'm still not at ease regarding a decent Winter. This looks to be one of the latest first freezes on Record. Leaf droppage in much of the area is a week to 10 days behind schedule. Many, not all, years that leaves hung late went in to be either back loaded or mild Winter's. '94-95 was one such Winter. El nino as well. Very mild and stormy... Severe in January. Let's hope that's not where we're headed. Hopefully, blocking will be dominant and the MJO cooperates for us. Siberian snow cover is much below average per Judah Cohen. It's not really lived up to what he suggests the last several years. So, maybe blocking won't be a problem.
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May be the Atlantic Hurricane altering the flow being at least partially the Culprit.
