The difference this time may be the MJO if the western seasonal track is bucked. Also, Nina has weakened. Hopefully, these factors buck the seasonal trend. However, troughiness in the SW will try to continue the cutter pattern.
Everybody, go check out the Truckee/ lake Tahoe Cam's if you wanna see something spectacular. Flakes at least 3" diameter were falling a few minutes ago.
Downtown Truckee | Tahoetopia
I remember the Blizzard well. One thing they mentioned was wrong, as far as here in Lee County is concerned. The Storm didn't begin as Rain. Snow began to fall in Pennington gap at 1:13 Friday Afternoon with a Temp. of 36 . The Temp rapidly fell below freezing as Snow began to accumulate quickly.
In all my 40+ years of meteorological experience I've never seen the 500 mb Pattern behave irt the NAO blocking continually hooking up with the SER.... It's just hard to believe what we're witnessing.
I agree with you wholeheartedly with this . In actuality, i'm confident of measurable snow even in Valley Locations south to I-40 and quite possibly further South. Alot of cold waiting in the wings with transporting Driver's aligning. Also, STJ has been pretty juicy and the real possibility of Miller A Cyclogenesis exists, imo...
Yeah, j just about guarantee it. Usually a predominately mild Winter progresses to a cold Spring. I don't know what the statistical odds are, maybe someone that feels up to it can look it up. Also, this Year has more going for that as well, due to the SSW, waning Nina and ensuing Nino.
Yeah, see what ur saying and yeah, other factor's at play as well. Canada is pretty cold now so, hopefully that'll assist in the suppressing this go around. It may be just the sheer strength of the SER and Trugh deepness out west doing much of it. Of course, that moves on to chicken and egg, cause and effect.
I agree so, let's look elsewhere. Global warming ?, QBO? , Warm Atlantic SST's ?...Those NW Atlantic SST's are ,imo, the problem irt getting the usual accompaning 50-50 Low. Therefore, allowing the SER and -NAO hookup.