Daniel Boone
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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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I think we start doing better once those stupid Atlantic Hurricanes stop. Part of the westward shift in the front and trough coming down is in response to the Hurricane helping to block the SE progression.
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Excellent work Terp !
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He is good. Carver keeps the score with him very well. Look forward to his outlook.
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Dt's write-up along with some other's regarding the PDO makes some sense. It has weakened considerably lately. Also, the cold pool near Baja will alter typical effects according to Dt. I don't care alot for DT personality wise tbh but, overall he is good at what he does as far as a Meteorological perspective goes. Another thing I like is the cold pool off Newfoundland. Look for the likelihood of the 50-50 Low this Winter, imo. Totally opposite of last year in that regard. So, hopefully we can manage a 63-64 type Nino Winter. Of course that was a colder era so, maybe a watered down version. However, that Winter was a bit late starting but, not what you'd call just back loaded as a major Snowfall hit our area Dec. 22 that dumped a general 6-12" upper Valley area wide.
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Wxrisk Winter Forecast is out. https://wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/_pda/2023/10/winter-2023-24.pdf
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About same total here. .73"
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Yeah, makes one want to try anything. l. Maybe a Divine Rod will work. Lol
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I hope/pray your area does get in on a wetter pattern. Sounds terrible there.
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We got a decent amount for a change. .67" . Area's close by me here in Lee County received a good bit more as they got the heavier showers today. Only light one's at my house today.
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I think it's going to come down to the MJO and HLB to whether we see basically canonical moderate to strong Nino conditions or a more colder snowier outcome. The Models may not pick up on that very well as ENSO is heavily weighed in them and HLB isn't as it's harder to pick up on and predict as we all know.
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Yeah, know what ur saying brother. I hadn't looked at it until just a few minutes ago. A little off from being canonical Nino Climo on their Temperature map. More warmth in the upper SE. No below average anywhere, even deep South, just equal chances.. Per usual for them however.
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Many times over the years Noaa/CPC broadbrushed Nino Winters with average Nino Climatology.
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If that is indeed the Case for this Winter, you've hit on the probable Reason.. at least from what we can logically see. Formidable upstream blocking will still mitigate the -PDO effects if it does rear up, providing HLB is present.
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Won't you just love it snowman if we get strong blocking and wind up colder and snowier than you want ala, 1968-69.
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Interestingly, the upper South (SWVA/ETN mainly) recorded a major Snowfall in November 1951., 15-20". That was lower elevation Totals , btw. Rather out of Character for an RNA Nino and November. Also, the other -PNA Avg Winters you listed were good Snowfall wise in these areas as well. The worst falls in the+PNA Winter's listed with 94-95 and 53-54 being paltry.
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Exactly what I was thinking. Looks almost opposite of what it should in much of the lower 48. Maybe the Countries that stand to gain financially from the Climate agenda had some influence on those Models.
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Yeah, looks to probably be a close to normal Winter temp wise in the SE , depending on whether HLB is dominate or not , below average if so. Snowfall around avg.. Above with HLB. That was my early opinion on Winter. After reading some of the posts here with probable outcomes with historical backing, I had started to lean maybe colder but, it does appear the Pac Jet will once again be strong. There is some correlation to a cold pool off Newfoundland and more sustainable 50-50 lp and a - NAO. That pool has developed in that area. Would like to see it strengthen and expand somewhat. Maybe we'll get favorable MJO and HLB in conjunction at times that'll offset a strong canonical Nino Pattern. Just an opinion from my rusty, antique mind so, disclaimer galore.
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Don't you just love the pick and choosers.. They have several Model's to use but, instead of at least coming up with an avg. of all, they pick what goes along with either what they want or think will be right, lol. Eric appears to be one of those.
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Amazing at how much of the US is so dry. Hopefully, the STJ will become more active and propagate northward. A good soaking across the deep South from a rather rogue non named system in the northern Gulf. Hopefully, we see more of these that pull further north.
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I see something of interest has developed on the Atlantic side. Cold pool off Newfoundland. Hopefully, it'll continue to cool.
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Looks good.
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Winter 2023-2024
Daniel Boone replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
In my reply to your Outlook, I mentioned your Outlook looks similar to 72-73 and 82-83 . The Snowfall outlook looks more like 72-73 in the East. I gave my thoughts there. No need to rehash. UKMET latest outlook looks about what I'm thinking. Normal to above Snowfall should encompass a broader area in the East than your map indicates imo. at least up to the lower MA or MD Line. MJO looks favorable much of the time for theses areas. -
My Winter Outlook for 2023-24
Daniel Boone replied to raindancewx's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I envisioned a similar setup when stewing over everything that influences the Winter pattern a couple weeks back. Since being a rusty Relic now, I just can't delve into the work, coming up with maps, graphs etc. Kudo's on the Work you put into the Outlook. The Outlook looks alot like a blend of 72-73 and 82-83. Snowfall looks more like 72-3 as 82-83 normal to above encompassed a larger area of which included the upper South and portions of the MA. I lean more of an 82-83 but, not quite the extreme Eastern warmth as that Winter featured in December. I think there'll be periods of decent blocking and the MJO looks to be favorable for at least the lower MA and SE a good bit of the Season. Just my 2 cents coming from a mind of antiquity. -
My sentiments to a T Jeff, lol. It's actually beginning to get under my skin how it just keeps happening. Anguish ! Lol.
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Good post and excellent points on your part too man !
