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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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December 2023 Mid/Long Term Pattern Discussion: Let it Snow!
Daniel Boone replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
I don't think KJKL or KMRX ever even mentioned the possibility. Really surprised at that... Particularly JKL.- 548 replies
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December 2023 Mid/Long Term Pattern Discussion: Let it Snow!
Daniel Boone replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah. Hopefully we can land a couple storms at the least. Odds still better than last with active STJ.- 548 replies
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December 2023 Mid/Long Term Pattern Discussion: Let it Snow!
Daniel Boone replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Good post buddy. Yeah, LC still is optimistic. As with many he is a bit more reserved. I still haven't spoke with him. I'll give him a buzz and maybe get a little more out of him. I think with the continued intensification of El nino at this juncture has gun shyed some of us . The Japanese warm pool is more concern to me. As I mentioned on another forum, the strong Ninos of 82-83 and 97-98 were decent around here snowfall wise. It's the one's Don S. brought up that were terrible here. '72-73, 91-92, '94-95. Stinkers as you said, lol Btw, Wife was up early and saw flurries as did many other's here. Small flakes.- 548 replies
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December 2023 Mid/Long Term Pattern Discussion: Let it Snow!
Daniel Boone replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Anybody see any flakes ? I didn't but, apparently some were falling above 2500 ft as could be seen on Mountains. As far as the pattern, I wish I'd kept my hopes down regarding an early winter start. Many of us suspicioned that big warm pool off Japan was influencing/ altering the pattern causing a La nina background state within a strong Nino and affecting the MJO as well. It obviously is influencing the NA Pattern. Look at the intensity of that Firehose Pac Jet over that area ! Other Drivers are there but, that is a strong one. El Nino forcing will fight against it but, question is , will it pop the typical Aleutian Lp where we want it or be forced further east by that warm pool intensified Pac Jet...- 548 replies
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Yeah, that one clocked that area with up to two feet in South Carolina !
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The worst of the worst Nino Analogues , lol. The 82-83, 97-98 and even '15-16 were all better in much of the Central/ Southern Apps and MA Snowfall wise. May be different in your area . Man, if this one follows those, talk about a depressing one for Winter weather enthusiasts.
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It's all those Nukes NK fired into that Area
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Yeah, that's the eyesore we addressed a few days ago when the good pattern started showing up. Once the MJO gets to 7-8 it should help position it back where we want it if it's not already there as Model's may adjust west of what's depicted.
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One of our biggest problems of late has been the -NAO always forming during a crappy Pacific. Also, phasing of systems forming formidable LP to our South are almost non existent anymore.
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December 2023 Mid/Long Term Pattern Discussion: Let it Snow!
Daniel Boone replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Kind of suspected that to be the case. Mentioned that to locals here couple days ago. Setup looks favorable for first Valley flakes as at the very least there should be enough residual moisture to produce at least small dendrites.- 548 replies
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Nice area there Bob. Spent some time there.
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Ur the ultimate Optimist Jeb !
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Yeah, that right there could be problematic if realized and decent Amplitude.
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Yeah, imo the main muting effect for the East if that does transpire would be a formidable -NAO.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Daniel Boone replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
CNN.. I don't know whether to believe it or not then. Lol -
In a criticizing reply tweet to margavage he actually said it was a legit -NAO and then unloaded his opinion of rest of margavages tweet, lol
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In a criticizing reply tweet to margavage he actually said it was a legit -NAO and then unloaded his opinion of rest of margavages tweet, lol
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He couldn't be wrong. How dare you question dt the great. The self professed best.
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Hopefully, that goa low will be further west.
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Yes, respect other's.. throwing weenies, lol, at those that's been in the business longer than you've been alive is just low imo. He has some good discussion if like you said, would not be so one sided .
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Exactly. That's what's been the flaw with an otherwise advertised great pattern. Hopefully, that does correct and park where we want it.
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Not a peep out of snowman 19. You suppose he doesn't like webber as much now.?.
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December 2023 Mid/Long Term Pattern Discussion: Let it Snow!
Daniel Boone replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Unless we can get strong blocking ala., '95-96. Although that was pac jet and polar jet driven, Systems tracked generally ESE before turning ENE after reaching the upper SE.. although , that I rather rare. It's possible the STJ will deter any chance of the -NAO and the SER hookup also .- 548 replies
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Happy Thanksgiving Everyone and may God bless you all !
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Yeah, really. Lol
