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Daniel Boone

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Everything posted by Daniel Boone

  1. Daniel Boone
    We are really having trouble getting any meaningful 50-50 LP this Season. A problem for sure. Those SST's there apparently the main culprit.
  2. Daniel Boone
    The warmest January on record Analog. lol.
  3. Daniel Boone
    There are some signs an overall mild eastern pattern continues with short breaks through January(hopefully not). You know, if the mild eastern pattern remains dominant into early FEB., the 71-72 may come into play as somewhat of an analog. That was a 2nd Year Nina and was one of mine for last Winter. That Winter featured an Alaskan Vortex in Jan/Feb of which finally shifted by mid Feb.(may of been a strat. disruption) and much of that cold moved into the Eastern US. A Miller A moved up the coast that phased with a LP over the Eastern Lakes. We received 8 inches from that one on the 17th. That was a memorable one for me as I was in hospital with the Flu . I recall people commenting that day that it was in the 20's out and the snow had just started just west of Town(Penn.gap). I got out the next day and man was it cold and windy!
  4. Daniel Boone
    Been keeping up with that one. I've been letting the locals know about it as a time to watch for the possibility of wet snow. I'm thinking a pretty good liklihood for higher eles but leaning , mainly cold rain lower for the most part as of now.
  5. Daniel Boone
    The West is having a banter Winter ❄️ Nina's their best friend out there.
  6. Daniel Boone
    Exactly. If you just look at where the Model's have the MJO, you'll see the correspondence in the 500 Chart's. It carries alot of weight.
  7. Daniel Boone
    An excerpt from a Weather channel Article : There are documented case's of a foot per hour in Lake effect area's of New York. Burt compiled a list of the record snowfall rates in his book "Extreme Weather", and the top amount in a single hour was 12 inches in Copenhagen, New York, Dec. 2, 1966. That same location also picked up 6 inches in 30 minutes during the event I've recorded 6" in an hour and 10 minutes.
  8. Daniel Boone
    You may be right brother. I am sort of leaning(more like hoping for,lol) toward a non typical Nina Feb. . I'm banking that on the MJO. Those SST's should warm enough by then to allow for greater amplitude into the cold phases. Of course, we will start having wave length changes late Month of which will affect one way or the other. The Atlantic is really a thorn still, as we need that 50-50 and those SST's affecting that area may not become favorable.
  9. Daniel Boone
    excellent way of describing it. well said, lol
  10. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, I agree wholeheartedly. The Month will probably end warmer than average but, not outrageously so. That's base Nina. Almost a given . However, if we can get things to align right if that MJO gets into cold ph. and crawls, there's a chance for maybe a somewhat cooler than avg. Month . Tough to do in a Nina as we all know but, it can and has happened.
  11. Daniel Boone
    The Southeast Crew is having a meltdown. Some of the Twitter musings they're looking at. I don't know what some of those are going by but, nothing has really given a definitive absolute of a warm January like some are touting . Like it's set in stone; like the Gospel or something.
  12. Daniel Boone
    Happened here in Feb. 2015.
  13. Daniel Boone
    That Control run looks absolutely gorgeous. That is a Miller B to Miller A or hybrid type pattern look. Also, Southern Slider..
  14. Daniel Boone
    I think 09-10 actually had that a time or two and we scored once while eastern slopes and MA did from both.
  15. Daniel Boone
    Yep. Hopefully, we can luck out in that small window.
  16. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, may be another 3 weeks overall mild stretch. Fits what's been happening.
  17. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, the 60's were a snow lovers Decade. The - NAO was pretty much a mainstay. Enso State didn't matter so much nor did the PDO. It would still Snow.
  18. Daniel Boone
    I'm with you on all you mention. I think the weeklies may be at err with the end of Jan. onward, particularly if the Nina continues weakening. The MJO I would think would be more aggressive and assertive in cold phases then.
  19. Daniel Boone
    The debate over the -NAO and whether it produced or didn't is a matter of opinion, I guess. I'll say that it did as far as squelching what would have a very mild month into basically an average one Temp wise by months end. Otoh, to say it wasn't far from bringing what a typical -NAO of that magnitude does is just wrong as well. I can bring up plenty of examples going way back to the 60's and even with a crap Pacific and western trough we saw systems bring snow in a west to east fashion. However, if you look at those years you find a formidable "50-50" in place. Some say the Alaskan Block caused the -NAO to not produce in the SE. I don't see nor get that, tbh.?... As John noted, the snowmageddon Feb.2015 was all Pac driven. One thing of interest regarding that period however, was the parade of LP's that just trained over the area around Newfoundland. They essentially acted like a "50-50"(more a 60-50) in that they helped funnel arctic air along with the tall western Ridge south into the Eastern US instead of the +NAO wrapping it around and under eastward. That is a rare pattern but, one heck of a cold and snow Producer. So, no you don't have to have a -NAO to get plenty of snow but, it can make it easier and more likely if other parameters line up with it.
  20. Daniel Boone
    Actually, a key missing component this year has been the 50-50 Low. Without it the strong -NAO linked with the SER and resulted in a full latt. Eastern Ridge at times.
  21. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, apparently they teterred out as they moved east. Each of those smaller ones were less than an inch here. Yeah, hopefully, we get an extended stretch of cold that has at least a couple decent systems to track through. Cold but not bitter would be great.
  22. Daniel Boone
    You were more fortunate irt Snow in , 83-84. Only 1 really good snowfall in the Valley's up this way. That being the one on the January 18th. 6 inches. Feb. was mild overall. Some days above 70. Several dustings and one 2-5" fluffy snowfall. March was rather cold but, once again most snow missed here. The 22nd one had alot of wind, thunder and lightning. It was snow/rain mixed below 2000 ft.
  23. Daniel Boone
    I'll check it out. Hadn't saw much from him in awhile. Robert always was good at pattern recognition.
  24. Daniel Boone
    Just went out and noticed a light dusting on vehicle. Hard to tell looking out window as car is not in view and still have old snow on ground. So, don't know when it fell.
  25. Daniel Boone
    Exactly my thoughts. Going to be crucial what happens that first week. If can begins to be kicked and trough deepens out west, may be same old cycle.
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