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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
That Feb. 2015 one wound up being the 15-20 inches deal for here. North Jonesville, near Stone Mountain officially reported 20 while my local se of Town 15".- 923 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
My take on the Models depiction for area's like Wise for instance are snowfall projections are too low, if the setup depicted is realized.- 923 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Good work Holston ! Thanks for all you do. I seldom feel like doing much these days and what you, Carver's John etal do really helps. I Hope / pray your loved one"s are recovering.- 923 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
You know that couldn't happen. KMRX say's you only have a 40-50% chance of an inch or more. lol- 923 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Praying for you and your Family brother. I hope all goes well and for a speedy recovery.- 923 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Those were the good ole day's.- 923 replies
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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023
Daniel Boone replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
That's that meltdown I was talking about brother, lol. -
January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
We are really having trouble getting any meaningful 50-50 LP this Season. A problem for sure. Those SST's there apparently the main culprit.- 923 replies
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The warmest January on record Analog. lol.
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
There are some signs an overall mild eastern pattern continues with short breaks through January(hopefully not). You know, if the mild eastern pattern remains dominant into early FEB., the 71-72 may come into play as somewhat of an analog. That was a 2nd Year Nina and was one of mine for last Winter. That Winter featured an Alaskan Vortex in Jan/Feb of which finally shifted by mid Feb.(may of been a strat. disruption) and much of that cold moved into the Eastern US. A Miller A moved up the coast that phased with a LP over the Eastern Lakes. We received 8 inches from that one on the 17th. That was a memorable one for me as I was in hospital with the Flu . I recall people commenting that day that it was in the 20's out and the snow had just started just west of Town(Penn.gap). I got out the next day and man was it cold and windy!- 923 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Been keeping up with that one. I've been letting the locals know about it as a time to watch for the possibility of wet snow. I'm thinking a pretty good liklihood for higher eles but leaning , mainly cold rain lower for the most part as of now.- 923 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
The West is having a banter Winter ❄️ Nina's their best friend out there.- 923 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Exactly. If you just look at where the Model's have the MJO, you'll see the correspondence in the 500 Chart's. It carries alot of weight.- 923 replies
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An excerpt from a Weather channel Article : There are documented case's of a foot per hour in Lake effect area's of New York. Burt compiled a list of the record snowfall rates in his book "Extreme Weather", and the top amount in a single hour was 12 inches in Copenhagen, New York, Dec. 2, 1966. That same location also picked up 6 inches in 30 minutes during the event I've recorded 6" in an hour and 10 minutes.
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You may be right brother. I am sort of leaning(more like hoping for,lol) toward a non typical Nina Feb. . I'm banking that on the MJO. Those SST's should warm enough by then to allow for greater amplitude into the cold phases. Of course, we will start having wave length changes late Month of which will affect one way or the other. The Atlantic is really a thorn still, as we need that 50-50 and those SST's affecting that area may not become favorable.
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excellent way of describing it. well said, lol
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, I agree wholeheartedly. The Month will probably end warmer than average but, not outrageously so. That's base Nina. Almost a given . However, if we can get things to align right if that MJO gets into cold ph. and crawls, there's a chance for maybe a somewhat cooler than avg. Month . Tough to do in a Nina as we all know but, it can and has happened.- 923 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
The Southeast Crew is having a meltdown. Some of the Twitter musings they're looking at. I don't know what some of those are going by but, nothing has really given a definitive absolute of a warm January like some are touting . Like it's set in stone; like the Gospel or something.- 923 replies
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Happened here in Feb. 2015.
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
That Control run looks absolutely gorgeous. That is a Miller B to Miller A or hybrid type pattern look. Also, Southern Slider..- 923 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
I think 09-10 actually had that a time or two and we scored once while eastern slopes and MA did from both.- 923 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yep. Hopefully, we can luck out in that small window.- 923 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, may be another 3 weeks overall mild stretch. Fits what's been happening.- 923 replies
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Yeah, the 60's were a snow lovers Decade. The - NAO was pretty much a mainstay. Enso State didn't matter so much nor did the PDO. It would still Snow.
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
I'm with you on all you mention. I think the weeklies may be at err with the end of Jan. onward, particularly if the Nina continues weakening. The MJO I would think would be more aggressive and assertive in cold phases then.- 923 replies
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