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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
The debate over the -NAO and whether it produced or didn't is a matter of opinion, I guess. I'll say that it did as far as squelching what would have a very mild month into basically an average one Temp wise by months end. Otoh, to say it wasn't far from bringing what a typical -NAO of that magnitude does is just wrong as well. I can bring up plenty of examples going way back to the 60's and even with a crap Pacific and western trough we saw systems bring snow in a west to east fashion. However, if you look at those years you find a formidable "50-50" in place. Some say the Alaskan Block caused the -NAO to not produce in the SE. I don't see nor get that, tbh.?... As John noted, the snowmageddon Feb.2015 was all Pac driven. One thing of interest regarding that period however, was the parade of LP's that just trained over the area around Newfoundland. They essentially acted like a "50-50"(more a 60-50) in that they helped funnel arctic air along with the tall western Ridge south into the Eastern US instead of the +NAO wrapping it around and under eastward. That is a rare pattern but, one heck of a cold and snow Producer. So, no you don't have to have a -NAO to get plenty of snow but, it can make it easier and more likely if other parameters line up with it.- 923 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Actually, a key missing component this year has been the 50-50 Low. Without it the strong -NAO linked with the SER and resulted in a full latt. Eastern Ridge at times.- 923 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, apparently they teterred out as they moved east. Each of those smaller ones were less than an inch here. Yeah, hopefully, we get an extended stretch of cold that has at least a couple decent systems to track through. Cold but not bitter would be great.- 923 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
You were more fortunate irt Snow in , 83-84. Only 1 really good snowfall in the Valley's up this way. That being the one on the January 18th. 6 inches. Feb. was mild overall. Some days above 70. Several dustings and one 2-5" fluffy snowfall. March was rather cold but, once again most snow missed here. The 22nd one had alot of wind, thunder and lightning. It was snow/rain mixed below 2000 ft.- 923 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
I'll check it out. Hadn't saw much from him in awhile. Robert always was good at pattern recognition.- 923 replies
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Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
Daniel Boone replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
Just went out and noticed a light dusting on vehicle. Hard to tell looking out window as car is not in view and still have old snow on ground. So, don't know when it fell. -
January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Exactly my thoughts. Going to be crucial what happens that first week. If can begins to be kicked and trough deepens out west, may be same old cycle.- 923 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Hopefully it's right. Don't want to go through another kick the can 2.5-3 weeks mild.- 923 replies
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Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
Daniel Boone replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, dread to see next electric bill. -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
Daniel Boone replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, apparently a slug of moisture came from somewhere . Makes me wonder if the Valley pulled some up it from the SW , sort of like when a warm nose will shoot up it ahead of a LP. -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
Daniel Boone replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
Shafted up here. Saw couple small flakes around 7 PM -
January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
For real! Too bad we didnt get underwater volcanic activity in that area this fall..- 923 replies
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Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
Daniel Boone replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
Hopefully this thing holds together and brings the area a decent little event. WWA are up for western Kentucky for up to 2 Inches. -
Cup of beer
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Merry Christmas to all !
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Merry Christmas to all- 923 replies
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Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
Daniel Boone replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
Made it to 12.2 for a high today after a low of -1.3. about 3/4" snow on the ground. -
Yeah, those SST'S in the ph 8 area are still pretty cold so, a factor in MJO progression. If further warming occurs there, the MJO may be more helpful the last half of Winter.
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That 50-50 is more crucial than many realize.
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Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
Daniel Boone replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
Same here. -
December 2022 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Noticed that and just a 20% chance of snowshowers Monday/Monday night.- 582 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Agree. Yeah, most likely be a good indication irt the MJO.- 923 replies
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Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
Daniel Boone replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
This is the coldest afternoon here since Feb.'96 that I can recall. I did have recorded Climate Data back to the late 70's but lost some accidentally in a moving process and some with a computer crash. Ido recall afternoon readings in the single digits in Jan. 77, Jan 78, Jan. 82, 85 and 86, and Dec.89, Jan. 96. Coldest Highs ever recorded, -4 Degrees Jan. '85 and '96. Coldest low, -27 Jan. '85 and -21 Feb. 96. -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
Daniel Boone replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
How much did you wind up with ? I've been looking at cams and Lexington got hammered. Just eyeballing, it looks like probably .5-6" there with 2 foot drifts -
Historic Christmas Cold & maybe snow?! Dec 23rd-30th
Daniel Boone replied to Wurbus's topic in Tennessee Valley
Currently 0.2 F with filtered sun and some very small flakes falling. Received a half inch of Snow overnight.