Daniel Boone

I hadn't been thinking clear on this upcoming cold and thought was coldest since feb 96 but, then I remembered feb 20 2015. -16 Jonesville. - 20 Pennington gap morning lows. I recorded a high of 12.

That's somewhat disturbing to say the least.

Yeah, it's looking like it may be falling inline with the GFS.

Excellent post Carver's ! Nothing needs added. Right on the Money imo.

Exactly. Nam3k at this range performed terrible at my location Winter before last. Heck, it even did right before each event ! If it had been right, 80% of the Snow we got would if been Rain.

Remember that well. Actually, January '78 is the time I remember. We were supposed to of gotten in in the great Ohio Valley Blizzard of '78. Warnings were up.

Actually meant to chime in earlier but, recently spoke with KMRX about the forecasts they put out and what input is used. They said they use the NBM. So, that explains the low forecasted snow Total they put out this afternoon. So, unless more come inline with the GFS and RGEM they'll continue with the low forecasted amounts.

Yeah, you're right on as usual brother. Rgem has shown to be the best, overall, irt snowfall projections for our area.

They're basically following Euro looks like.

Yeah, late December '69 a good example. Very cold, snowy winter. '95-96, overall cold and very snowy had bouts of heavy rain and flooding. Winter '63.. etc.. could go on and on. P. S., felt should throw this in. There have been a few exceptions to the rule of severe Winter's having their thaws and flooding. 76-77 and '77-78 come to mind. 76-77 did flood but, wasn't till Spring. April 4th. Those are extremely rare and exceptions to the rule, however.

Wouldn't be surprised, lol. Hopefully that firehouse runs into a huge eastern, Arctic Jet driven Trough and overflows it with Snow ❄️

The theme for the fall and early Winter has been 3 weeks cold west vs a week to 10 days cold east. Block or no block. I don't know why but, it's as if we are going through a cyclic continual process. The Nina is the biggest Driver. I suspect the MJO is having some impact. Alas, the NW Atlantic SST'S.

I agree completely man. Model's appear to have gotten worse over the last couple years.

Nothing worse than rain then flash freeze and bitter cold with no snow. Better to be warm and sunny for Christmas.

One way or the other I'm pretty positive we'll get some snow, whether a dusting or several inches. I have saw that happen with transfer's; a decent shield of snow heading in from the west only to be killed by a system developing well to the east and sucking the energy into it. I have also witnessed Lee side development that enhanced precip by throwing moisture back .

This may be one of those years when some area's see a white Christmas ( 1" or more) while other's a short distance away doesn't .

Nina Ninja still main culprit. I do wonder lf a formidable 50-50 Low were in place how this would transpire. I do believe that is the biggest problem with this pattern let alone the powerhouse storms coming out of the Plains. Those SST's around Newfoundland are the probable cause, i.m.o

Yeppers !

My belief it is mainly the SST'S in the 50-50 area irt the problem regarding it. I wholeheartedly agree alot of complexities.

Oh, definitely agree with that as well. I've been retired a long time now and don't have as much experience with advanced tools in the field they have now but, will say the Greenland block -NAO hook-up is more prominent in recent years. The cause is not completely understood, mainly speculation. I just thought Cape pointed out something that actually makes sense. Why are the 50-50 lows not developing or holding like it seems they should ? Could be SST'S in that area ,QBO etc.. who knows for sure. But, we do know, there's cause and effect.

the 50-50 low is whats been missing. thats the problem as cape's alluded to in other posts.

Yep! I would of loved to of seen that fall ! That much snow in 6 hours on a saturated ground...

You may be talking about Feb. 12, '85. Heavy rain all day the 11th turned to very heavy, wind driven snow after midnight after the strong LP moved up the Valley and arctic air rushed in behind and under it. about 2.5 inches of rain fell here the 11th before changeover around 1:15 that night. I heard the wind roaring during the night. Had to be gusts 40-50 mph. I got up at 7:30 a.m. as snow was winding down and went out and measured 15" in the level. There were 4 foot drifts beside my home! Forecasts were for light amounts.

It does seem to of hurt more than help lately. 10-11 it played a big role in that Nina being cold/ snowy. Year before last it did seem to help some. I think alot of the problem is where we are not getting the usual 50-50 Low with it. If you add it to the equation, these systems cutting would go so far only to be shunted SE even when they come in too far into the West . Also, without that 50-50 the block can connect with the SER, as has been the case quite often in recent years. The culprit could be the SST's off Newfoundland not being conducive for LP there.

The warm almost always verifies.