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Daniel Boone

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Everything posted by Daniel Boone

  1. Daniel Boone
    Actually looks good there. Not the best possible look but, good. Wouldn't take alot to become great.
  2. Daniel Boone
    Would be nice for the PV to split with 1 vort going into SE Canada while a - NAO forms between the 2 across Greenland into Baffin Islands. This in conjunction with a -EPO and active STJ would sure be a delight for snow lovers. To provide a little optimism, this scenario is not far from being shown as being evolved per a couple model depictions. As of now it doesn't fall into the likely category, just yet i.m.o.. I think we need a PV split to help ignite a proper positioned -NAO, particularly if it stretches the direction the EC depicts. As John alluded to, an east based NAO won't help us but, will some of the areas that have been already getting their fair share of snow.
  3. Daniel Boone
    Saw that earlier and thought same thing. A powerful gulf low gets suddenly absorbed or even destroyed by a cutter in Arkansas. Lol.
  4. Daniel Boone
    That is what I envisioned happening when I made post yesterday. I must say I got a bit gunshy 2day and was afraid I jumped the gun regarding Gl blocking. Still am somewhat but, still confident on a better, snowier pattern.
  5. Daniel Boone
    Carvers buddy, you've been on it youself. You definitely know your stuff. We've had so many head fakes and false alarms it about makes us not trust our own experience, insight and ability anymore let alone NWP. Been a tough couple Winters.
  6. Daniel Boone
    I may have jumped the gun with my post irt possible gl blocking setting up. There still is the possibility of somewhat of one as forcing from powerful NE coastal LP's in conjunction with the HB HP will try. However, that strong PV and associated +AO are and will fight tooth and nail. Definitely need a strong SSW to put the kabash on that. It is possible enough forcing from aforementioned players could knock the PV off it's Rocker if it is weakened by a weaker warming event . That thing is so strong, it just deflects everything.
  7. Daniel Boone
    I believe the advertised cold ,and tbh ,probable snowy pattern has legs this time . The eps plot carvers just posted is actually showing a Greenland block trying to setup along with the +PNA and CPF.. STJ staying active as well.
  8. Daniel Boone
    Heard the quake here as well.
  9. Daniel Boone
    I remember the same things and watching Margie as well. Those were the days ! Yeah, the "averages" will definitely jump a pretty good bit. The problem I have with them adjusting the "normals" is the masking of how much cooler they used to be as u alluded to.
  10. Daniel Boone
    Not surprising buddy. Almost beginning to look like a 90's strong Nino pattern. If so, maybe we can squeeze one heavy wet snowstorm ala, Jan. 98 (upper NE Valley . Or Feb. 98 plateau area.
  11. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, they tweaked too much as now they have rain at 34 @ 2m with -5 @ 850. Also, over emphasize Downsloping in this area and under emphasize upslope in SEKY.
  12. Daniel Boone
    Wouldn't surprise me particularly for NE sections.
  13. Daniel Boone
    Probably Euro's bias of holding energy back at play causing the cut.
  14. Daniel Boone
    Alot of areas out west get them.
  15. Daniel Boone
    Wound up with a half inch last night. Season total, 7.3".
  16. Daniel Boone
    Heavy dusting with lt. Snow currently.
  17. Daniel Boone
    Happy New Year All !
  18. Daniel Boone
    Agree with the cold europe=eastern us cold but, I think that is generally associated with the NAO. In most cases a +NAO portals a mild Eastern US but, as we know, not always. It almost always does Europe. So, let's hope that's the case here.
  19. Daniel Boone
    A side note irt Feb. 2015. At one point Northern Lee and much of Wise County had 2 to 3 feet on the ground on the level ! Big Stone gap, 27". Pennington gap 24". 33 to 36" Keokee to Seminary area. 22" at my home . These areas totalled 35 to 45" in a 3 week span. Official reports as well as pics/videos verified these reports. As John mentioned, -10s were common. -16 at my home. -20 reported from Pennington gap.
  20. Daniel Boone
    Bingo !!! Thanks John.
  21. Daniel Boone
    Excellent discussion guys! If I were up to it id look up a composite of the Feb. 2015 MJO cycle . Anyone have that or care to do that as am curious as to how much affect it had considering the the PDO state at the time. If it was in an unfavorable phase then, that would give string credence to Carvers point. His point is valid regardless, as far as the npac ssts being a strong driver as well. Just curious to how much against an unfavorable mjo phase.
  22. Daniel Boone
    Alot of strange and odd behavior with the models lately. About as bad as the fake news and political agendas, lol. At this juncture, about the best we can do is use pattern recognition and sst data, imo.. Nino forcing SHOULD eventually evolve things to a more favorable winter pattern.
  23. Daniel Boone
    Not meaning to rain on anybody's parade with the previous post as I guess a " great Winter" depends on what criteria used or individual opinion or preference . I am an old timer and look at the great Winters of yore; long, cold and snowy. A great Winter nowadays could be regarded as a 2013-14 or 2015 type.
  24. Daniel Boone
    Not to be a Debbie downer but, the truly GREAT Winters did not have extended mild patterns in the heart of Winter. 62-63, 69-70, (76-77 although it went mild by Feb. 20.) 77-78, 95-96 although it had several short mild breaks. The 2000s best Winters did feature more mild spells, however. Hopefully, Central Pac. Nino forcing will take over along with the loosening of the +Iod affects.
  25. Daniel Boone
    Been snowing off and on here for about 45 minutes now. Moderate at times.
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