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Daniel Boone

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Everything posted by Daniel Boone

  1. Daniel Boone
    Agree with causal and effect. However, in the end the MJO Rooster ruled the Roost. IF that Rooster would decide to roost in a more favorable area we should still get things lined out for a decent snowstorm... or 2. Late Feb. and March may be the saves.
  2. Daniel Boone
    Nothing here as that band moved up the Valley and went to my east.
  3. Daniel Boone
    Zilch here as of 9:20 am. Heavy band that moved up the great Valley missed to my south and east. Bummer !
  4. Daniel Boone
    I'm seeing into now. As it stands, the Lee County Airport Station west of Jonesville is down and has been since last summer. So, Temps are being projected by models from topograhical smoothed elevation plots and closest Stations. The plots are basically smoothed more on some than others, as is evident. Also, Downsloping is a little overdone as spillover upslope snow survives into the western Valley sections and then disappear further east. Also, there is a somewhat upslope flow from the ssw that is never modeled of which affects precip totals as well. Snowfall reports come from my data and probably the Pennington gap water plant, of which is a terribly location as it is 1 mile south of town right on the banks of Powell river at a much lower elevation than most of the county. Also, that station has a proven history of the workers there reporting erroneous data.
  5. Daniel Boone
    Exactly my thoughts. Apparently not very precise or as you said about the borders.
  6. Daniel Boone
    I don't know what has been done to some models lately or what data is being ingested but, they have been forecasting temps too warm for Lee County and underforecasting precip. Snowfall projections are wrong as well, generally too low. Even the once decent (Euro model) for the area is doing it now, as well.
  7. Daniel Boone
    Wound up with a quarter to half in the Jonesville, Va area.
  8. Daniel Boone
    Good analysis and prognostication PSUhoff. We were and have been so close to having a great Winter. Now, so close to having a great ending. Will the powers that thwarted what was on track for a great Winter thwart the ending as well.?..My guess is yes to some degree. One other factor that may play a role in fighting against us is the rising + QBO. . Although, probably not much weight from it as correlation rather weak.
  9. Daniel Boone
    Mid section has had a great Winter and looks to continue, even if we do get in on it.
  10. Daniel Boone
    Sorry for late re. Yeah, for the most part unexpected , although, a couple of models showed some.
  11. Daniel Boone
    On a side note, several accidents were reported in Lee County.
  12. Daniel Boone
    Thanks man. Sloppy now as melting taking place and lt. Rain has begun.
  13. Daniel Boone
    Picked up 2.5 " heavy, wet snow here in central Lee County, Va.
  14. Daniel Boone
    Picked up 2.5 " heavy, wet snow here in central Lee County, Va..
  15. Daniel Boone
    The MJO has been and may still be the thorn in our side as it's now projected to go back into warm phases. Hopefully HL blocking will kick in and Trump or mitigate it's effects.
  16. Daniel Boone
    Agree 100% in that we were in line for a wall to wall cold Winter if the MJO had not pulled it's high jinx.
  17. Daniel Boone
    That blasted MJO has been and may still be the proverbial thorn in our side. Hopefully, forecasts are wrong concerning it. Even if not, with high lat blocking and Nino affect kicking in, it may not be so much a bad thing as it may help keep systems from being too suppressed. Winter 78-79 comes to mind although it was more neutral enso. The entire continental US was cold and snowy except extreme SE and Maine of which was slightly milder than avg. there. Strong HL blocking ruled the roost.
  18. Daniel Boone
    I've only recorded 2 days of below zero highs in my 40 years of observations. Jan. 21 1985(low of -27) and Feb. 5 1996(low of -21) Each with -4 degrees. One zero high ; Christmas 1983.
  19. Daniel Boone
    Just basically flurries here 5 to 6 a.m.. a quick band of snow came thru around 9:30 this morning that ended as sleet. Didn't stick ad temp was upper 30's .Dp was upper 20's, explaining how this happened.
  20. Daniel Boone
    The January 94 storm produced record amounts of snow in Kentucky with over 2 feet reported in Maysville. Rain changed to snow rather abruptly during the afternoon here in Lee County with 7 inches accumulated. Harlan, Ky had 10. A steady increase as you went north in Kentucky. A side note, Mccreary and Wayne Co. KY were big winners in the Feb. 98 storm with 2 feet reported.
  21. Daniel Boone
    One heck of an analogy and explanation brother! Kudos ! I would weigh in but, no need to as I don't think anyone could detail it better in an easy to understand, ingenious way ! MJO clearly ruling the roost now. Of course, other than God.
  22. Daniel Boone
    Thanks Jeff, its all good man. Great analysis ! In hopes, with the right timing we can score a Christmas surprise.
  23. Daniel Boone
    Thanks Vol . Much appreciated! Btw, I'm a Vol fan as well.
  24. Daniel Boone
    First off Brother, there was no pun thrown toward anyone in the subforum.. I have always respected and looked forward to your input as well as others. I apologize for any misunderstanding. What I posted was accurate and meant as I stated, to be on a positive note. Carvers had made mention recently of how the weeklies did that last month and yes, there were Mets and others that bought into it. Btw, I'm not just a novice poster or weenie for that matter. Been around as long or longer than many on here. Health went down a few years ago along with a life altering event of which I retired from meteorology. Since, I want to remain anonymous. Carvers may have an idea of who I am. I enjoy being back in the discussions as weather has been a passion of mine for over 40 years. I must say, my reception and respect on here from what it was during my previous time is about like night and day.
  25. Daniel Boone
    Regardless of how the weeklies look, with the extended warm period, the way this season has gone thus far, it is possible it will be wrong as it was a couple weeks ago when many(including mets) bought into it. Yes, the Mjo is discouraging but, other factors have been known to mitigate it's effects. Definitely not saying the long mild period won't happen, just looking at the possible bright side.
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