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Feb 6th - CDC has great teleconnector support; CPC, not sure what the deal is there.

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

CPC PNA is flat through the period, but the CDC is signaling a major change.  It is hard for me to believe the CPC is entirely correct given to the fact that the Pacific is clearly open to MJO influence now that the WPO is less suppressive.  Currently there is a moderate wave in the 7th octane and that is forcast to strengthen in 8, ...even stalling there... It would seem the CDC values are unto this.  *The CDC uses EOFs for low level mass flux anomalies; CPC uses EOFs for mid level geopotential anomalies.  You'd think that CPC would be onto this - not sure what to make of that.    

 

The operational GFS refuses to give up on an important dig into the OV that gets active along the Coast, possibly directly impacting the upper MA to New England regions.  The current most recent prog near misses, but well within the envelope of concern for a D7 lead.  One aspect I like about this D7 scenario is that it's missing ...?  Yes, I would be less interested in this if it were a direct strike a this time range.   Here is the 18z GFS for 168 hours

gfs_namer_180_1000_500_thick.gif

 

 

 

 

Back the CCB head on shore and you got the biggest event up this way in 2 winters, perhaps more.  

 

Here is the 12z depiction for 180 hours out, from this morning ...

 

 

gfs_namer_180_1000_500_thick.gif

 

The depictions are a near miss, but we note that the operational GFS and many of its cousin ensemble members have a progressive bias.  The GGEM at 12z was interesting.  Here is it's 180 hours, which is one panel away from detonating a NJ rapid developer, given there between 40 to 50 units vort max careening into the Coastal Plain of the MA, while cold antecedent high parks N of Maine - this chart reminds me some of November 1986:

 

 

f180.gif

 

 

 

 

Here are the more favorable teleconnectors...  At least through the 6th of Feb the PNA is rising substantially at CDC.  The NCEP channel is most believable while the Pac appears receptive to the MJO's advances and is presenting herself:

 

ensplume_full.gif

compare.pn.png

 

Con: ...other than D7 this particular year being clearly absurdly so long away I probably should have my head examined ... the flow may be lacking some compressibility yet as evidence by the mid level balance flow being above 40 kts over the deep SE.  There are 3 "clipper" type systems, this being the 3rd in the series.  Of all three, this one is the one that is most identifiable over the Pacific Basin where assimilation is making Phil all excited about accuracy.   

 

gfs_npac_000_500_vort_ht.gif

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SR Airglow

SR Airglow

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Don't have much to say and won't until atleast saturday given how unreliable the models have been, but I just wanted to thank you for this writeup. Reading stuff like this is fascinating for me as I try to learn more about the complex puzzle we like to call weather. Thanks for all that you write for this forum, it is greatly appretiated!

 

-skisheep

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Don't have much to say and won't until atleast saturday given how unreliable the models have been, but I just wanted to thank you for this writeup. Reading stuff like this is fascinating for me as I try to learn more about the complex puzzle we like to call weather. Thanks for all that you write for this forum, it is greatly appretiated!

 

-skisheep

 

Oh, right - there's very little confidence... It's just that "some" of the stars are aligned and it's really the best thing there is on the table imho -  

 

Euro has been leading the error-chorus for the last extended and medium range recently. 

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SR Airglow

SR Airglow

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168 hrs out?

Sounds great. Come back to me at 72 hours or so, but only if it the snow threat looks real by then.

 

Thanks.

Exactly, talk to me on saturday. Knowing the models, it will go from a clipper to a KU to a cutter to ending up nothing, because thats the story of our lives this winter :)

 

Seriously, has the medium/long range always been this bad?

 

-skisheep

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NECT

NECT

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Posted

168 hrs out?

Sounds great. Come back to me at 72 hours or so, but only if it the snow threat looks real by then.

 

Thanks.

I looked at those models earlier before I saw this thread add was a little surprised nobody had mentioned this yet. Aside from the obvious fact that this is a week away, it better than models showing a torch, and it's at least something to look at.

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

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I looked at those models earlier before I saw this thread add was a little surprised nobody had mentioned this yet. Aside from the obvious fact that this is a week away, it better than models showing a torch, and it's at least something to look at.

I suppose.  The torch talk definitely makes me want to hurl.  Although the useless, freaking cold last week wasn't much better. 

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NECT

NECT

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I suppose.  The torch talk definitely makes me want to hurl.  Although the useless, freaking cold last week wasn't much better. 

It felt like winter for a week. We only get to look at 180 hr snowwishmodels in the winter. I'll take what I can get. Most of the year,  the best we could hope for would be no snow at all.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Bump

 

 

Not really ... the same sort of plague that is dooming the 4th deal is probably still in play for this one - it was very low probability and based on the flow slowing some slowing that doesn't show much sign of taking place, in time.

 

It's been the plight of this winter, and is why the 84 hour interval has been this virtual terminus where/when systems go from fantastic to fallacious - it's because the middle range Global numerical models, no matter which, keep under-estimating the speed of the flow beyond 84 hours where it generates all these interesting winter storms.  Then, said winter storm gets inside the 84 hour window and the model(s) at hand ...suddenly detect the speed in the flow and everything gets disrupted and falls apart.  

 

It appears this Feb 6 might be doomed to the same fate - at least I don't see an outright reason to assume the flow will finally, at last, since November really ...relax enough to allow any impulse to do the trick - at least not by 5 days from now, at tremendous convenience to this thread.   But ... you never know.

 

Maybe, just maybe closer to the 10th...

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Edge Weather

Edge Weather

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Not really ... the same sort of plague that is dooming the 4th deal is probably still in play for this one - it was very low probability and based on the flow slowing some slowing that doesn't show much sign of taking place, in time.

 

It's been the plight of this winter, and is why the 84 hour interval has been this virtual terminus where/when systems go from fantastic to fallacious - it's because the middle range Global numerical models, no matter which, keep under-estimating the speed of the flow beyond 84 hours where it generates all these interesting winter storms.  Then, said winter storm gets inside the 84 hour window and the model(s) at hand ...suddenly detect the speed in the flow and everything gets disrupted and falls apart.  

 

It appears this Feb 6 might be doomed to the same fate - at least I don't see an outright reason to assume the flow will finally, at last, since November really ...relax enough to allow any impulse to do the trick - at least not by 5 days from now, at tremendous convenience to this thread.   But ... you never know.

 

Maybe, just maybe closer to the 10th...

How about the ECMWF for Friday?

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dendrite

dendrite

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Posted

I think we need to clarify which threat this is for. I think Will's post is about the 6th, and others are talking about the 8th. Then John mentions the 10th...

 

I think we should keep this thread for the weak system on the 6th, and then make another for the following system on the 8th/9th.

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