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CMC was just slower overall but also moved towards the more east later transfer idea. I said last night that either happens way west in the TN Valley or in coastal SC/GA in these setups. It won't typically happen over WRN GA/AL.

Still garbage here as well.

Looks like it's game on for metro Atlanta.

I gotta admit, the GFS/AIGFS make me nervous. That ULL in the Southwest has to eject. AND it needs to be well timed with northern stream shortwaves dropping south through MT and the Dakotas. There are always failure modes.

Comparing the GFS to all other models for this upcoming storm might be the worst gap I've ever seen. We really need to retire it and invest more into our modeling here ... Oof. Unless it wins a coup and is correct but doubt it.

I don't like waiting on a second system west of the Apps. Too many times I have seen that slide into the Carolinas during previous storms. Need a 0z Euro solution or AIFS look. Fortunately, the GFS is well...the 12z GFS. There is a reason it scores poorly. The 12z GEM is trending south. And as always...read Jeff's post above.

Days and days?

No, did not move up to this area until 2016. I have often wondered what the NJ coldest minimum temperature on record really is. I believe it is recorded as -34 in River Vale (Bergen County) back in 1904. Have to believe it would have been colder than that in the Sussex County valley locations. Also how accurate is the -34 reading? Who and exactly where was it recorded? Lived in Park Ridge, next to River Vale for 10 years from mid 70's to mid 80's. Saw some cold readings during that time but temperatures on the coldest morning were always notably colder out in NW NJ.

CMC takes the look of the Euro. We'd sign....well I would.

150 pops a new coastal just off shore

Just a foot area-wide on the Canadian.

I think the GFS is what it is because of how it’s handling the cold air. Therefore suppressed, how often do these super cold temps verify. Rarely, so I think the GFS will come north

True, I was kinda worried to see that trend south..but I do trust the EUROAI more.

Yes I agree those temps will bring high ratios

We need the first phase to be nearly perfect with next to no southern energy left behind for a HECS. For 6z this looked like a good consensus but now with 12z shifting the other way I agree its time to put those talks on hold till we see which way it goes at 18z and 0z.

Redevelops like the euro had with all that backside energy.

Euro suite slowed down overnight which definitely helped getting the storm north. I think that’s definitely what we want, a bit slower evolution that still gets plenty of northern stream involved…but that delay will allow the TPV to lift northeast and ease some of the confluence over us.

It's significant, but notably lighter than the 0z solution.

Gotcha, thanks!

CMC is kind of like PD 2003 storm, just lighter and a bit south.....a stronger southern system pushing a bit north would help a ton. Watching the radar loop from 2003, you can almost imagine that is what it would look like if the CMC run were to play out as is today at 12z

Holy crap lol

The Euro AI has been adjusting south too.