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Typically the degree of the warm air (MaxT aloft) will be proportional to the depth. In other words, the highest the MaxT aloft, the deeper the warm or >0C air. In many studies I've seen though, no matter how deep or shallow the warm air is, when you hit 3C or 37F, you're completely melting the hydrometeor. Once that happens, there's no going back to sleet or anything "pellety" unless the air somewhere within the subfreezing layer can get down to -13C/8F or lower. Unless that happens, the rain drop does not refreeze. When we see sleet, it's typically associated with an elevated warm layer temp between 0.5C and just below 3.0C. When it's closer to 0.5C, it's probably more of a sleety & rimed snow mix. When the MaxT aloft is closer to 2.5C, it's more like a sleet ball, with little if any evidence of a mangled snowflake.

I'm starting to have a love-hate relationship with this storm.

Doesn't count. Sleet is not snow and that's a troll way to get to a warning...I just want 6+" of snow. Been 10 years. It should not be this hard

It comes down to liability. People are afraid to make a call and be wrong. Again, from a Risk Management point of view, I am actually sounding an alarm and have been to those I know and advise. The truth is we dont KNOW what will happen. However, there is a high probability of a significant ice storm. There is a medium to high possibility of a crippling ice storm. There is a moderate possibility of a catastrophic ice storm. From a Risk Management perspective, this is where you plan for severe disruption and pray you are wrong. But, if there was any WINTER storm where I would pull out the stops, its this one.

are they only discontinuing the regular nam or also nam 3k?

It sucks bad 1.5" we dry slot it away

But for the entire state, we’re living’ on a prayer, one way or another. Whoa ohhh… Side note: Jeff, could the colder trend lead to a longer period of sleet before the freezing rain?

New York City: 6” Boston: 14” Philadelphia: 5” Washington DC: 4” Hartford: 13” Albany: 12” Me: 8”

I just got a dusting too.

2.5 inches of sleet on top of 4.5 inches of snow would be wild. The NAM has been right, but it’s also fell on its face in embarrassing fashion close up to events as well so of course consider it but I wouldn’t assume 100 percent it is correct. Just have to keep it in mind as a possibility.

My only saving grace around wnc is that most of these lines were redone and repoled after helene. .

FV3 still much colder than NAM. Sleet line further north than prior run though.

3k is great here Monday. CF already back down here.

I believe central park had 7.5 inches before the thundersleet. Up here in CT had 9.5 before the thunder sleet

i know this will probably bust out too high, i tried and i posted this wednesday. well i can redo one tomorrow lol

Have to use models judiciously. These storms come north - always. The models are late to the game - always. And there will be a dry slot.

Fv3 3k Nam is also colder

Tongue closed in on 3k

hour by hour it had -45, but if -48 happened on a non-hourly observation, I'd believe it

If it makes you feel better, here's the most biased cold model the fv3, often wrong, seldom right. A big hit!

Its getting to radar watching time.

I hope the hell it's right. Change over is 4pm or a little after at the M/D line. Nam changeover is 6 hours or so earlier?

Hands down one of the most impressive sleet accumulation forecasts I’ve ever personally seen. 5.7” is pretty awesome. I’ve fully accepted the sleet-mageddon and I’m excited now.

The snow and sleet combo would be a warning level "snow"

My bar for this storm. I hope that's still possible, man. But if the NAM is right even the low end might be in trouble (that run gives Baltimore 5.2")