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OBS-Nowcast should go here when we start predawn Thursday. Modeling of the previously drier GEFS and SREF are becoming better with the 18z cycle and drifting east. The 00z/30 SPC HREF may be helpful when it completes around 0530z. No changes seem needed to the headline.

modify that for 2025

What happens in November, the winter will remember. That’s a very old saying, often repeated by Big Joe Bastardi back in the day.

Just when my vertigo was improving. Wow that was dizzying

Let’s just make sure it’s not a two week cold period with no production. I can’t get on board with pattern talk anymore. I need results.

People don't realize there's really only 9 hours of daylight in December, and they don't know how to allocate it.

A strong NAO blocking regime is in place and will persist into early November. As a result, an extended period of cooler than normal weather will prevail through the end of the month. Tomorrow will be a bit milder as temperatures rise into the upper 50s or lower 60s. Rain will arrive late tonight or early tomorrow. A general 1"-3" rainfall is likely late Wednesday night through Friday. There remains some uncertainty about the area of heaviest rainfall. The storm will be followed by a continuation of cool weather. In the long-range, the guidance suggests that an AO+/NAO+ regime could develop the first week in November. As has often happened with the loss of strong blocking, a milder regime could develop late in the first week of November or shortly afterward. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around October 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter. The SOI was +18.18 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.392 today. The NAO was -1.634. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.3° (0.4° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Hopefully this is 1104hr

Another mind-blowing satellite loop, closeup of the eye https://x.com/weatherdak/status/1983629157381894297

The big reason why I am optimistic about this upcoming winter is the north Pacific warm blob. The last time this happened back in in 2013 we all know what followed.

LFG!

Vortices are likely disrupted and a bit sloppy at lower levels, but this intense convection will help realign and ramp up the reorganization in time. Favorable shear vector will help with divergence. Perhaps Melissa can close off another core, albeit briefly

2016-2018 were back to back years of terrible IMBY. But 2017-2018 was the worst of the two. As @psuhoffman said, 2017-2018 had bad dice rolls on game day. So I'd take that pattern again and chance it.

Heavy rain, cool and windy out right now. Feels like a proper fall storm for once.

Yes. That’s why I mentioned December. Energy weenies seem keen on it.

Thanks to you and Dryslot with the sled talk I actually considered buying a little MXZ Neo to beat around my woods. Then I remembered it doesn't snow! Likely would have sat in my garage until the mice ate the soy wiring and I listed it for free on craigslist.

I’m sure somebody somewhere profits from the time zone change…and they are lobbying to keep it…

My kids are out now for sports…in the dark. They’ll be ok. It’s definitely better to have daylight during the afternoon than early morning

Heck yeah! Raining currently with a temp of 41. Been at 41 for hours.

Sunrise in Toledo Ohio on New Year's Day would be 9AM. I think that would annoy a lot of people there, along with any other places on the western edge of timezones, especially in the north. Anyway, I'm sure the preferences for more light in the morning vs more in the evening break down about 50/50. I can see going back to standard time year round, but DST year round? I don't get it. Is there really still a compelling energy savings case for DST?

Oof, likely no surge there so all wind damage. Probably from a mesovortex