All Activity

The latest Euro Weeklies, which go through July 13th, have mainly quiet to near normal ACE in the E and W Pacific. If so, this would mean the quietest start in the Atlantic since 2009!

...Stick to the ensembles means from this range re the more important/obvious heat signal in debate. One day shot on Thursday ahead of shallow fropa, with limited backside CAA support. The, synoptic systemic circulation changes that will surge a ridge after ~ D6..7 That much is higher than climo confidence. Exact amplitude and/or interfering nuance notwithstanding... The 00z ensemble means of all three majors were incrementally improved on the heat signal comparing the prior 12z run, which was also incrementally improved on the previous 00z's means. The trend is clad, and is a spatial representation of what the numerical teleconnection correlate: PNA to -1 SD/-summer EPO/ + fluctuating NAO. The operational runs will vacillate between better and worse correlated synoptics for the next several day's worth of run cycles. Probably mid/late week they start coming to a consensus. Two notes: One, amplitude bias at this range is a real model issue. We've big signals start subtly lowering amplitude as we near enough to know this possibility lurks. Two, somewhat in conflict of that notion, we seem to emerge this heat signal above on top of the solstic, and also, evidenced is S/W/ Sonoran heat release. **This is a candidate for synergistic heat event**, but we won't get a sense for confidence in that from this range. Also, we may see a pattern entrance MCS vulnerability late this week or over the weekend as an early guess/surmise, with rapidly rising heights and a NW geostrophic wind over top WSW transport/differential theta-e advection underneath.

Lol I just saw it now

All the vorticity that could’ve become a seedling for TC development has stayed in the EPAC, which has led to a furious start over there. The Atlantic window is probably closed for the foreseeable future, at least in the western Caribbean and Gulf.

All the vorticity that could’ve become a seedling for TC development has stayed in the EPAC, which has led to a furious start over there. The Atlantic window is probably closed for the foreseeable future, at least in the western Caribbean and Gulf.

65 and full sun with a breeze at the moment in Newburyport MA.

There are things in life to be miserable over. Weather isn’t one of those. It always changing whether we want it to or not.

Can we get one of these for Nassau County too? I am consistently hotter than JFK even though I'm considered to be on the *south shore* 1 mile south of Sunrise Highway but north of the barrier islands by over 2 miles.

I don't think anyone gets these fabled sea breezes unless they live on the barrier islands like Long Beach. For a sea breeze to get where I am at, it has to be at least 20 mph otherwise it only comes in after the high temperature has already been reached. That's how I know there was no sea breeze here last Thursday, the highest temperature was recorded at 4:30 PM. We can easily hit 100 on a SW wind here in July. The temperature drops after 3 pm but the high of 100+ is reached around 1 pm.

Last night saved me from a total bust. 0.9”

K

hockytreefiddle'd 66/52

When we get the mist from the clouds I call it spittle. Like the clouds are spitting on us rather than a drizzle.

Did you happen to read the one comment below the post? lol Made me crack up.

NBM maybe? Just a guess.

Happy Father's Day to all the dad's on the board!

That's better. Cooler today, then more seasonable in the coming week with chances of shwrs/stms.

Toooorrcchhh! https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1934230852117966927?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Right now I would favor the "classic" microbursty line of storms. This is not a knock at SPC by any means, but I do not trust any severe weather forecast beyond D3 in the Mid Atlantic or Northeast. We simply have too many mesoscale features that can muck up a forecast. My favorite research papers for this part of the country are below, and all reference the issues that numerical weather prediction has in this part of the world. Highly worth the read: Guastini, Corey T. and Bosart, Lance F., 2016, "Analysis of a Progressive Derecho Climatology and Associated Formation Environments" Monthly Weather Review Vol. 144, No. 4, pp 1363, 1520-0493, https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/144/4/mwr-d-15-0256.1.xml Vaughan, Matthew T., Tang, Brian H., and Bosart, Lance F., 2017, "Climatology and Analysis of High-Impact, Low Predictive Skill Severe Weather Events in the Northeast United States" Weather and Forecasting Vol. 32, No. 5, pp 1903, 1520-0434, doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-17-0044.1 Banacos, P. C., and M. L. Ekster, 2010: The Association of the Elevated Mixed Layer with Significant Severe Weather Events in the Northeastern United States. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 1082–1102, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010WAF2222363.1. Lombardo, K. A., and B. A. Colle, 2011: Convective Storm Structures and Ambient Conditions Associated with Severe Weather over the Northeast United States. Wea. Forecasting, 26, 940–956, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-11-00002.1.

The rest of the summer won’t be close to average.

So would the storm mode mainly be pop-up microbursty stuff or a squall line?

All the local airports around NYC are too close to the water to capture the highest urban maximum temperatures. This is one of the reasons that the NYC micronet was installed. ConEd could easily see from their actual electrical demand that the NYC official readings were lagging the actual usage on the warmest days. Especially with Central Park getting installed under the trees back in 1995 rather than out in a clearing like in the old days. So this lead to NYC being one of the most undersampled urban environments for heat in the USA. Most of the population in NYC doesn’t live at the cooler airports and get sea breezes. So the neighborhood micronets tells ConEd and the residents what is really going on where the most densely populated areas are.

Who's forgetting? Looks average to slightly above except for a few days next week when we torch.. I still think the west Midwest and south of here are the big heat winners this year.. meh for us for the most part

60 here