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Many times in the mid Atlantic we get our first tropucal influence about 5 days after the first real cool shot moves out. The first cool one is over us right now and I’m curious to see what happens next

39.2 in Tamaqua. For once I beat your overnight low....lol

Well like I said, I won't have time to do in-depth digging or analysis, but regardless, 90% of "seasonal" outlooks always find some way to make it cold/snow in the East. Anyways, regardless of whether we end up in La Nina (by ONI definition) or neutral negative, much of the Pacific remains a heat pump. Now, I know things may change some in this department as we move towards the northern hemisphere winter solstice but the IPWP and WPWP remain expansive, which has been a theme for the last several years. In the case of the IPWP, when combined with the -PDO regime, is going to yield a stronger gradient across the North Pacific as we move deeper through the cooler season (lower pressure over the IPWP and higher pressure in the north Pacific) which will contribute to a very fast jet stream yielding zonal flow into the U.S. I'm fearful this is a recipe for strong MJO activity when convection enters phases 5-7 and we all know what that means. The WPHP is going to continue the theme of intense southern ridging and this could be even amped a bit by a weak La Nina or negative neutral ENSO and will aid in faster jet stream winds across the country. But of course you have wildcards such as stratosphere, QBO, etc. But when the PAC is a dominant player in this regard...it doesn't usually bode well for us.

Only thing that might save the CAD regions from one of the warmest Octobers of all time is clouds/NE flow. We might get a front finally somewhere around October 15-18 but it will be above average about every day for at least the first 15 days of the month.

A Nino in general is better for this area than Nina not factoring in anything else. We also had the Feb 2003, Feb 1983, missed 2/6/10 by a hair, etc huge Nino fueled storms. Nina by its nature generally favors the upper Midwest and New England, but obviously other factors especially today with the boiling W PAC play a major role. 2023-24 was basically a Nina with a lot more rain and one snowstorm here in Feb even though on paper it was strong El Niño. The overall unfavorable Pacific completely messed it up.

Is the swamp hot enough to feed a low over some land? The breeze feels good, we've had rain up here so not complaining for this year. Last year was a nightmare right now.

Thats mostly harvest or crops close to it. Does it every year though rarely all at once as of late. One thing around here, farmers that got flooded out early summer and raced to re-plant are being re-warded with this weather. Its mostly soybeans that they did that as its harder to recover corn. But there are huge swaths of still green growing soybeans in fields and they are harvesting around them hoping for another 3 weeks before a frost shunts them/ It was a big gamble but many lost so many crops in that couple of weeks of intense flooding it was worth the risk.

Posted my thoughts in the main thread but I think the tropical wave has robust support and a favorable environment for development. The lemon off the SE coast is limited by land and time. But a quick spin up is possible.

I recognize that this is not a real contribution, but I would sign for this.

Wow way different than most outlooks Hope you are wrong

Yeah you can't "see" drought from space. However the crops are crispy especially soybeans which have been a crispy brown for 3-4 weeks. I noted significant browning over the midwest from those geo-color sat pics a month ago. Some of it is crops, some of it is bare earth from early harvest. I will say its definitely a very very dry harvest/ If they running through soybean field in the evenings the dust lingers along the ground so thick you can only see a couple hundred feet when you drive through it, for maybe a half mile. Early afternoon you can see huge clouds of dust riding the thermals into the air from the combines. Its eerily got a scifi look to it from Dune lol.

Unfortunately, the jet max out near the Aleutians was one of the strongest on record for late September. Right along the northern gradient of that record SST pool. Looks like more of the same next few days with a daily 5 sigma jet max. We saw how this lead to the record warmth around our area in late September. It’s no surprise the models are so warm for early October with near 90° heat forecast in places like MSP. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDMPX&e=202510021750 These strong southerly winds will also usher in a very warm airmass, with highs both Friday and Saturday expected to be up around 90 west of I-35 and south of I-94 both days, which will put record highs in play both days for MSP and STC. The only saving grace when it comes to this heat is dewpoints won't be horrendous, mainly in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Still, when the Twin Cities has only seen the high meet or exceed 90 in October 3 times going back to 1872, this a rare airmass for us to see so late into the season.

Popcorn https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Virginia-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Sun and clouds and 67 at 3pm. Very nice.

I agree. I suspect that's part of the reason we saw a very warm end to September across much of the CONUS.

Won't be able to put anything of great depth or detail together for the winter, but my thinking right now is that it is going to be a above average temperature regime for much of the country and could be on the drier side, except maybe the West and we'll see an overall theme of de-amplifying systems trucking across the country with another raging jet the culprit.

The new CANSIPS is showing more of an Aleutian ridge regime than an Alaskan ridge regime this winter

IMO, until global shocks become truly synchronized, the prevailing inertia is likely to persist. Psychologically, shifting from decision avoidance to proactive problem-solving is extraordinarily difficult for leaders who lack courage and foresight, especially when doing so requires sacrificing the comforts of the status quo. The danger, as the literature suggests, is that by the time globally synchronized harvest failures and cascading disasters emerge, warming will already have advanced to levels where damage is locked in and far worse than it might otherwise have been. Some studies project once-per-decade synchronized shocks around 2 °C of warming. Yet even at that scale, such events could still be dismissed as “bad luck,” painful in human and economic terms but ultimately normalized within existing systems of risk. Only when these shocks become unmistakably regular, perhaps near 3 °C warming, will denial and delay collapse under the weight of recurring crises. Human societies have always normalized risk until it is unavoidable (Typhoon Tip's linkage to human nature is on the mark), and climate change has been no exception. People tend to discount future dangers, cling to established routines, and resist costly change until shocks become both visible, substantial, and persistent. Until synchronized failures shift from rare to recurrent, most governments and industries are likely to stick with the status quo, effectively sustaining the global geoengineering project of filling the atmosphere with carbon. In doing so, they are constructing a future marked by predictable and frequent catastrophes. When that moment arrives, excuses will abound, but the truth will remain: these crises were foreseeable and foreseen. Even more importantly, they were preventable. Today, humanity possesses both the knowledge and the means to act. Yet, it chooses not to do so, ensuring its investment in inaction will yield tomorrow's challenges and catastrophes.

Just adding to this. I think our window for something purely tropical is closed. With each passing day in October climo makes it so. But given the troughing we’ve seen and the possibility for a CAG ejecting something or stalled front induced coastal low off the SE coast later in the month some sort of hybrid wouldn’t be a pipe dream. We’ve actually done very well in recent years getting at least one October coastal with a little tropical influence.

yeah, unique little sandy valley....you could feel it as soon as the sun went down that it was going to radiate perfectly....clear and calm again tonight should yield another round of mid 30s by sunrise, that and no return flow starting until after daybreak

We're really good at that.

33 mph gust in Gulfport, FL a few minutes ago. That's more than Imelda brought which was a very nice steady breeze. I looked at NOAA and was surprised to see a lemon!

Notable exception last year with the white christmas and absurd freezing cold a few days beforehand.

"September was fallish". I see you chose to ignore the entire second half of the month. Summer teetered out early and then came back with a vengeance after mid Sept. Hell, the upper midwest is getting its hottest temps of the entire season right now in early October.

Once the average seasonal snowfall drops below 4 inches (about the current average in Charlotte) in places like Baltimore and DC, then I know we've reached the point of no return. At that point, snowy winters might be a thing of the past. It might not happen with the 2001-30 averages, but it's certainly possible in the 2011-40 averages.

Crap ninos tend to be a bit better than crap ninas cause at least you can shoot up a big L up the coast and cross your fingers it happens to align with a cold shot. That basically just doesn't happen in ninas.