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We’ll see what models show today but as of now, snow to ice seems likely for RIC. Question is how much snow before the changeover

Mirage caution flags

Euro morphing into max snowfall for usual spots.

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I mean that's borderline dangerous for the southern crew

Still eventually rains to WVA, but to my eyes it was a tick south and colder. I wonder if there is a path to the northern stream wave dropping so far west of BC Canada than we end up with enough separation?

WPC Forecast Model guidance generally remains in good agreement with the aforementioned large scale pattern evolution, however differences in the details persist. The most notable question deals with how much interaction we see between the southern stream and northern stream energy over the Plains, and the overall depth/strength of the resultant trough. More interaction and a stronger trough would likely result in stronger downstream ridging and thus a farther north storm track. This is indeed what just about all the 00z models are trending towards. Generally a clean sweep, with the deterministic physics based models, ensemble means, and AI guidance all shifting north with the storm track. This trend really has little to no impact on the fact that a widespread and significant winter storm is going to occur...but it does play a big factor in exactly where the rain/ice/snow lines set up. So how confident are we in this trend, and will it continue or revert back to earlier runs, is the big question. Given the nearly unanimous trend in this direction, and at least a couple model runs in a row showing such a trend, it does seem like this shift has some merit. However, overall run to run consistency has shown pretty large swings with the exact handling of both the southern and northern stream energy. Suspect that the exact details of these features is far from settled upon...especially the northern stream energy which is currently strung out across much of western Canada into the arctic. Thus tend to think that the unanimous model trend could be a slight mirage and suggests more confidence in a solution than there actually is at this point. Either way, it should be stressed that in just about every outcome we get a widespread and major winter storm with many areas getting significant impacts regardless of these exact details. These details are, however, important for exactly where the maximum snow and ice totals occur. The current WPC QPF and temperatures were derived before much of this 00z guidance was available, and thus is a bit south of the new consensus. As described above, no guarantee we don't see a shift back south in later models...but assuming some persistence in the 06z/12z models then the WPC update today would likely shift north to at least some extent..

It still looks like the most impactful winter storm since 2018. Maybe worst ice storm since 2022. Snow is fun. Ice isn’t. Hope people following on here realize that the cliff dive here isn’t bc the storm is going away. It’s because most on here are staring down the barrel of a crippling ice storm. Mets will absolutely not get dinged for ringing the bell of a major storm coming that in all likelihood will cause much worse impacts than if it had stayed mostly snow

Ya… welcome to our cliff party.

Meh. I love driving around when it first starts, especially up in the hills near me.

I don’t hate it. It’s a beat down still

WB 6Z EURO beat down....

I am pulling up a chair in here this morning. Waking up to this is absolute dog shit.

Have we ever had a Richmond to Montreal to Halifax KU?

The WPC just issued a new disco on the “north trends”, here’s what they have to say, worth the read. I think there may be some big shifts tomorrow once everything is sampled in the new model runs and more balloon launches start and recon flights begin. WPC:

Here are your run to run changes at 500mb: There is more separation:, but the northern shortwave still manages to scoop the Baja energy out and semi phase?

Euro insistent on a late Saturday night to early Sunday start time across the area. Precip comes in like a wall in the dead of night.

Now that's smelling the sleet at BWI

Yeah none of this is good either way. Might as well give us some drought busting rain and the warm sector instead lol.

7 pm Sunday

Nicee that's what we want !!

close enough shade of blue that i will pretend it's a wsw for the impending dog

My forecast looks good. I am hoping the cold over performs and we see souther trends today. Not being a deb, but the big ones here almost always play out the same. For pure snow we need the S slider look the GFS was throwing out until yesterday. Phase= ip and zr for NC Analog is 5-7 days out maps show huge snow totals and it looks like we are going to get smoked 4-5 days out the N trends start and NC weenies start to head for the cliff 2-3 days out we are hanging on to snow totals by a thread as it becomes clear that warm air is going to overwhelm the mid layers and congrats DC I know I have said this before, but 2016 is a good analog, only we have better forecasting tools. GSO was forecasted to get 12-18 in snow. The clown maps held until the night before the storm. It snowed for 5 minutes before it switched and sleeted heavily for over 24 hours. We had 4-5 in of sleet in 2016 there. There were 30 in snow totals in DC burbs I still have a good feeling that we will get a high impact winter storm here in central NC

My guess would be it's a touch colder