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SNJ Coastal Flooding video. https://x.com/i/status/1977412609877123362

Finally someone throws a fucking bone around here thank you

I don't remember the Ravens starting 1-5. That's gotta be the surprise of the season so far.

Stuck in a band of heavy drizzle, windy with temps in the 50s. Feels like Christmas...

Power outages on the rise on long Island

Two photos from late this afternoon from the Long Island Sound:

A nor'easter will continue to bring periods of rain and strong winds to the region into early Tuesday. A general 1"-3" rainfall is likely across the region with locally higher amounts. The wind will gust to 40 mph in New York City and its nearby suburbs, and 60 mph along portions of the Jersey Shore and eastern Long Island. Coastal flooding and beach erosion are likely. Following the nor'easter, a fresh shot of cool air will move into the region during the middle of next week. Some parts of the region could experience their coolest temperatures so far this fall. Dry conditions will likely prevail through the remainder of the week. In the 18 past years where Central Park saw at least two 80° or above highs and Newark saw at least two 84° or above highs during the first week of October, the temperature returned to 70° or above on at least one day during the second half of October in 17 (94.4%) of those cases. For all other cases, 84.1% saw at least one such high temperature during the second half of October. Therefore, the sharp cool spell very likely won't mean that New York City has seen its last 70° or above high temperature. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around October 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter. The SOI was +8.31 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.008 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.8° (0.9° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Hey Raindance, Did you figure in the QBO? It appears you didn’t and/or don’t feel it’s important enough to consider it. I’m saying that because your 2 prime analogs for Oct-Feb, 2013-4 and 2024-5, had the exact opposite QBO of where 2025-6 will be. Please explain. Thanks.

Well there's a daily posting on this subforum of historical weather events all over the country (by Sacrus) and quite often I see posters discussing those, so I don't think the above is true but anyway I did post some of the info on the mountain west thread so I will shuffle on back there and shoot grizzlies off my front porch.

Snizzle

.54 inch of rain so far here.

If this were a snowstorm I would be as happy as a pig in shit:

That’s fair, but you could send him a message with this info. Nobody else cares

Finally picking up a steady mist, 58F.

moderate rain and wind here 58

I know, Don finds these things interesting even if you don't.

First snow on local peaks overnight, snow line is 6,000' and a chilly 45 F at 2 p.m. here at 3500' elevation, stratus deck at around 10,000' just above the peaks of the local Monashee Range. Snow stayed a little higher than mountain pass elevations but we could see the clear snow line on the local peaks, just some drizzly light rain falling in some places now as a shallow layer of arctic air seeps in from the northeast. Peak fall colors now at 2,000' to 5,000' elevations.

This is the NYC sub forum.

There were some dramatic radar echoes over Arizona and southern Utah from this storm, I think Chinook posted them on the mountain west thread. Where I live, we have the first snow visible on nearby peaks (the snow line is at 6,000 ft) and it's a chilly 45 F at 3500' probably high 30s on the slopes above us. We are at peak fall colour (which is mostly gold in this area, some orange and red). Note the anniversary of the 1962 storm, that was extratropical Hurricane Freda from the central Pacific basin (not a typhoon). The center of that went right over Vancouver airport at midnight with a pressure of 958 mbs. About half the trees in western Washington state were blown down, you can still see areas south of Olympia WA that had total removal of mature forest. There was considerable damage in the Vancouver area and on Vancouver Island as well (so I am told, I didn't live out west in 1962, I was in Ontario).

Under 10 inches for NYC, looks warm and dry

It's wet in West Central Connecticut too. 2" In is nothing to shake a stick at

0.50” in Syosset and 0.38” in Mutttontown so far.

you don't chase the stripers? the best of the season is mid november up here...

Fortunately there are several indications that we are about to end up in a much more active pattern potentially starting next week. And with a still well-above average Gulf, could get interesting here for storms. The fact that, unless something stupid happens, we are going to have a Gulf like that with no TCs to cool it down before storm season kicks up is going to make things interesting for moisture availability the next couple months imo.

Latest PNS wind gusts NWS PHI as of 4:15 p.m.