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I know we are dealing w/ 10 days out, but the difference between the GFS and ECMWF op is immense. I attached the 30/00z GFS and the 29/12z ECMWF 500H/850T anomalies VT 18z Jan 8. They could not be any more different. The GFS has split flow w/ no polar jet present, just STJ and 500 heights above 540 all of the CONUS. 850 temps above avg most of the country and a large part of Canada. The ECMWF, OTOH, has a huge polar jet presence merging w/ the STJ and very cold ern US and mild wrn US. In addition, the GFS has little blocking near Greenland, while the ECMWF is through the roof! What's funny is that either of these patterns could give a "CoastalWx Biggie" to the NEUS. GFS pattern suggests more Miller A and ECMWF suggests more Miller B! Odd. Which one will "win?!"

The final third of Jan will be rockin'.

Airport area getting heavy band

This might be the most important January since 2016.

I know that we're all chasing big dogs, but this would be a nice start to 2026 if it happens. NAM Nest and RGEM aren't as tasty as the HiRes FV3, but they all have the idea of some sort of quick-hitting band right on the front.

My driveway has been a cleats only zone since last night.

Yup so is my driveway and walk, Awful.

Usually, I chastise how much salt the town uses but glad they were out tonight. Side streets, but especially sidewalks, are going to be a disaster tomorrow.

Going to be a skating rink, Not enough snow falling to help out.

My dog is outside barking, so I go outside to get him and am surprised to see a flash of lightning to my NW! Does anyone have flurries or anything?

Already down to 26° here. Everything frozen. Should be glacial in the morning.

back in my day, folks would've been banned for this lol

if i see fantasy blue over my house, i call it a hit. i have no standards lol. the GFS is a hit in my book

We may have different definitions of "teeing up a hit". The h5 is way too large and not amplified.

our goat is washed :(

Block broke down. HP runs away and low tracks west. No coastal redevelopment in that scenario. We got a few more runs to go.

GFS teeing another hit up. Thermals TBD

I don't like that +EPO

Ji is having mocktails with the real housewives of Leesburg.

Enter the cooler

Agree, turned out ugly, but many different solutions coming. Trackable stuff

Cmon Ji think about it this way, we just gained over an inch of rain in one run!

Stafford was not good, very shocking…lots of money lost tonight

Ngl, it’s like of awesome being on west coast time. 845 here and the gfs is almost done. Looked more like a workable front end App runner than a cutter.

So Dec 2025 will be the most negative NAO Winter month (DJFM) since December 2010! 15 years, and 60 Winter months! With the 1st half of January looking like -NAO, we may beat the record for most -NAO Winter since 2010-2011. We need -0.24 for the Winter average to have that, and through Jan 15, we will have about -1.00, meaning that we need <+0.50 for the 2nd half of Winter to have the most -NAO Winter in 15 years! Nice longer term pattern brake.