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looking good for a chase tomorrow, HRRR has 4.2k surface CAPE in IL which is just unreal... agreed that the biggest question is just whether storms pop or not before 00/01z, to actually be able to see something while chasing

Yeah that would have been great to have. Thought we’d have some blocking this month but doesn’t appear in the cards. I’m sure it will come in April.

Good morning ESN+. For us it will probably occur just before a more dramatic redo of the Blizzard of 88. Stay well, as always …..

54 at Worcester... 39 at Fitchburg

Today’s MJO forecasts: GEFS EPS: @EastonSN+

I would have thought Feb 2018 had an 80 in NYC?

What about Feb 2018?

3/16 would work with any blocking or confluence, but nada

When will we break this one: "The earliest in the year that New York City had a high temperature of at least 80 °F is March 13 which happened in 1990."

How can you debunk statements which were never made in the first place? This was our first winter with benchmark KU events since January 2022. There wasn’t a statement made that we would never see benchmark storm tracks again. What was discussed was how long it would take for them to return and what mechanism would be involved. All it took was one of the earliest November stratospheric warming events related to the -QBO and record low sea ice. But such events aren’t well forecast much in advance. Record Western Pacific SSTs mean frequent MJO 4-7 phases but not always constant. This was our first successful MJO 8 event since January 2022. The NAO has frequently been connecting with the Southeast Ridge but not 100% of the time. In fact, the Southeast Ridge link up back in December with the -NAO worked in our favor with the strong -WPO to prevent suppression and deliver a snowy clipper. Record warm ocean temps mean the Southeast ridge has been dominant but intervals when it relaxes have occurred from time to time. Fast flow is an increasing feature as the planet warms. But we saw the first relaxation of this pattern for the blizzard in late February for just long enough for all the pieces to come together in years. Snowy Clippers were very infrequent prior to December and we finally got two great ones after a long hiatus. In reality what we have experienced has been a shift to all or nothing snowfall seasons since the 1990s. So our winters either swing for fences like this winter and and get a bunch of home runs or we strike out like the prior 3 winters. The sense of balance like we used to have with frequent 18-29”snowfall seasons prior to the 1990s has been lacking. So now it’s mostly under 20” or even 15” seasons and over 30”. The challenge with this type of regieme is that we need some exotic device to get the great snowfall outcomes like this winter with one of the earliest SSW in 75 years. We have been doing better than a place like State College which hasn’t had a great Miller A east of the APPS track in over 20 years. So they have been missing out with all the Great Lakes cutters west of the APPS and benchmark tracks which favor the coast.

31 degrees and a frost. Next week, just deal with what Mother Nature sends us. River at a warning level so no fishing yet this year.

Kalshi has NYC over/under 71 today. What side are we on? lol

6Z GEFS clown mean for St. Patrick’s Day at 10:1:

Except for basements, lol

If things continue as progged, may buzz down to El Paso or somewhere nearby tomorrow and see how things develop.

Lol'in at the back and forth with the its over..... no....it's not this met is waving his flag, so it must be.... Its been cold, must welcome the warmth. Friendly reminder to all sans bias.... 1. It's over when Mo Nature says so. Always has been always will be. 2. Like it or not, plenty of signs have been showing for the St. Pattys period for shenanigan's. Doesn't mean snow, but it'll be a kick in da arse cold compared to the spring fling we all are about to enjoy. 3.Even those of us who love snow and cold. Yesterday was nice to be outside. That's undeniable no matter how big a sno hound one can be. 4. Someones "ex" favorite met tossed some weather cookies of his own and blew some events (due to his bias, or just getting the call flat wrong?) 5. It's March 9. Mets and maps have all been wrong enough this year for me to discount nothing. Last weeks ens guidance said winter was over whle Ops said hold my beer. Look where we are a week later. PLENTY of cold/snow showing up. 6. for those anxiously waiting for spring warmth, you can wish it on all you want but that wont change the date on the calendar. Your time is coming but for your sanity's sake, tug back on the reins a bit. Ok....carry on.

Torching today! Let's get rid of these filthy snowpiles today

We still have one. Although the kids yesterday in the neighborhood were doing their best to knock the crap out of it. Daffodils are getting there. Can see the flower heads starting to come out of the leaves. And wow what a change in my morning mood with the sun. 45 currently.

Amazing that we’ll be able to melt out without experiencing any flooding anywhere. That’s the way to do it.

Quickly up to 51 here

Daylight 11:h38M Gained 2H23M since the lull Roughly equivalent to October 3rd Gaining a peak of 2M40+s daily

Big temperature differences from the valley to the hills.

We were told there would be no historic spring blizzard reaching an extinction level event along the I-95 corridor but didn’t listen! Instead, we ran around like a bunch of cotton-headed-ninny-muggins’ gassing up snow blowers, hitting the grocery stores and itching to start a thread. When will we ever learn our lesson to not trust models post 300 hours??

Thankfully, though the front month of crude is still up sharply from Friday (~10-11%), some sanity has returned relative to where it was at its 119 peak near 10:30PM last night as it has fallen back to the low 100s. Later months hadn’t been up nearly as sharply based on the feeling that crude won’t stay up more than a relatively short period. Once crude finally does start settling down and falling back, the ever-present challenge of retail following through will be there as they love spiking their prices quickly and reducing them back much more slowly.

This time the trough is a little too sharp and just sends the low flying up the Great Lakes. NNE perhaps could grab something on the front end.