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That thing is spinning . Like the whole little complex over the valley

Something has got to give with the PDO/extratropics. The models continue the massive Nino forcing into the fall. The fall is when ENSO effects on the mid-latitudes become much more pronounced and continue to increase into the winter. Call me the crazy one, but I just can’t see the -PDO continuing beyond November and I’m confident that we see a rapid rise during met fall and an eventual flip to weak positive

We’ll see. It’ll be a quick hitter.

Good morning S19. The SST measurement…. Is it strictly a surface temperature or is there any depth that also defines it. The thought of ocean surface temperatures approaching 90F, as shown on the graphic is sobering. Thank you, as always ……

You’re about to take a pounding

Big time rains earlier. 2.3"

It is some kind of unpleasant out there this morning. 76/74 at bwi.

With the latest round that come through. I ended up 4.22” it was crazy, just a constant downpour.

Observer Pyle made a remark about the station move on the January 1946 record. Then there is a record gap through to October 1948, when the first PECO observation record appears. I don't know if this is a real gap. During the same time, observer Pyle is also taking stream gage measurements.

3.5

5-6” per hour rain based on your measurements

Congrats to everyone else on their rain.

0.76” yesterday

1.08” in 10 minutes based on your 2 posts

Chris, my Davis @ shop exit 5> 2.38" now, humid as ass lol

1.28” in like last 20 mins

Relative 3.4 (weekly) remains notably lower than what this OISST graph suggests: graph suggests it was ~1.9 last week and NOAA has it at only 1.5 22JUL2026 3.0 1.8 1.4 0.3 29JUL2026 3.2 2.1 1.5 0.2 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

Downpouring on and off here, 0.28" total rainfall in Lindenhurst as of 6 AM (definitely higher now)

Low of 75 would be considered cool this time in Sofla. 80 with 75-80 dews typical. Glad to be living here now after 28 years in FLL.

It just came out. One of the strongest July CGT patterns on record. This was the opposite of what we have had with past developing super El Niños. The strong ridge north of Hawaii lead to the big warming there and the steep -PDO drop. Seasonal model runs from May completely missed this pattern. So the main question now is what caused such a strong disconnect between the El Niño tropical forcing and the mid-latitude pattern? While most 2020s years have seen the -PDO peak during the summer and move more toward neutral in the winter, even a lingering 10% to 20% atmospheric -PDO state into the winter would be a first for such a strong east based event. My guess is that if this were to have some influence into next winter, it would probably lead to some type of shift in the state of the Aleutian low complex relative to 1997-1998. Not really expecting the seasonal models to be of much help here. While we know that all past super El Niño events have featured warmer winters in the East, the details of where the strongest ridge axis sets up will provide the finer details. A strong +PDO atmospheric east based super event like 1997-1998 was very warm. This event is even stronger and starting out with more of a -PDO atmospheric state than other developing super El Niños. So we’ll have to monitor if the ridge axis remains further south or east than past super El Niños. But even a traditional super El Niño ridge axis south of Hudson Bay is warm on its own. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-021-05825-6

Torrential rain here with loud thunder

Just training over ASH 2.36" climbing, 74/72

If Elias goes, my thinking is the new GM brings in his own manager.

3.20” a bit of a break now , 4.5” in litchfield county already.

2.31". Woke up to South East Asian like down poor.