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Probably unnecessary to say, but the NWS forecasts the amount of snow that will accumulate in central Park. They do not attempt to forcast what someone from the observatory will measure.

With the half inch CPK already received that's 2.5 and well within their 2 to 4 inch forecast

Again. Their forecast is 1-3 this afternoon. 1-3 this evening. Forecast range from NWS is 2-6". Average that, and yes, their map says 4". But if you only get 2", that is an accurate snowfall forecast. This is not hard.

That's still great for us!

Love where we stand right now

Sure looking more likely someone in that Area you noted is good to get Hammered with Snow and Ice. Heavy Snow on Northern Boundary but Sleet and freezing Rain a pretty wide swath likely in the middle probably.

I didn't see this posted......here's the 17z HRRR total qpf. Big bust at Pit2.

Latest forecast map. Go take a jebwalk or something.

Light intermittent snow starting at lake Anna. Thought it would mix initially so that’s a nice surprise. Might get a coating if lucky.

AIs are liking the overrunning system while OPs suppressing it. Let’s see how consistent AI is in the coming few days vs the OPs. Wonder if we see another bias-correction win for the AIs….I had mentioned just a couple posts up how you often see those types of systems come north. I wonder if the AI models already know that from past data and are correcting for it. It will be interesting to track either way.

EPS 4-5", favors south central VA

Not a peep about the massive moisture plume coming out of the Gulf next week on the euro?

Agreed temps are slowly dropping

-RASN. 35.

Yeah, man. We want none of that. The cold air looks vey likely. The wild card is whether the STJ gets its act together. We have seen "false positives" this winter with it. Like I said above though, this event is within five days for folks in Arkansas...and almost four.

This will be the one time Goofus is correct

And that’s still damn good! I like we where we stand.

Snow pickimg up nicely down here in Trumbull..( sw ct)..got about 2 inches this morning

.5" here with the first round.

There was a pretty tight gradient yesterday from N and W of 84 to S And E. Though UConn campus today had 3-4”. They must be in South Willington? https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?zoom=8&lat=41.64&lon=-71.61&hr=24

The concern, and we have talked about this for at least a week...is that this potential cold air mass will form a gradient boundary which presses west to east. The cold air will submarine under warm air, and that creates the conditions needed for ice. We dodged one window this past week as the STJ didn't attack the base of the trough. The STJ looks to show some life right now at the worst possible time - and you all know I like winter, but not ice. Again, a lot will change and that should be noted in all caps. But it sure looks increasingly likely that somewhere between Birmingham and Lexington is gonna see a winter storm and maybe a bad one.

Yeah any warning amounts would probably be too isolated or localized to really justify a warning.

You are overestimating the warm.

GEFS's snow signal for Jan 25-27 is actually the weakest signal out of the ensembles. GEFS: ~4" EPS: ~5" EPS-AI: ~7"

Their latest forecast map has central Park at 4.4 when all is said and done