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Is this like a hurricane, where its just getting scooped up OTS by a trough or a kicker? If thats the case, I don't think we stand a chance of this coming back. If it was the case where we just needed a high to be less strong up north, we'd have a chance of a north trend. Tough break, its so close, but so far. But this is exactly what happens during Hurricane season with fish storms.

One day I'll chase one of these VA Beach blizzards. They happen every winter. I'd love to see a blizzard like NC gets all the time.

The Canadian and GFS are not set in stone as any adjustmet in those 250 mb winds or trough alignment can shift the storm just far enough west to impact the immediate NYC metro - it happened before the Boxing Day storm and no reason it can't happen again - have to leave all options on the table IMO - throwing in the towel today is a big risk..

I'll restart the civil war if this happens

Find it hard to believe this wont trend north some They all do

Good sign. But tonight I’d say we need consistent positive trends to start. We all know the negatives-kicker diving SE, 6 different unconsolidated lows, positive tilt, closes off early. One or two of those need to trend in a positive direction at least.

I personally don't remember much in the way of pingers with GHD 1. Dry slotting hurt us a lot more than any mixing. Now with 12/31/2007, mixing was absolutely a problem. And in all fairness there were the positive busts we never talk about, such as Feb 5-6, 2008. 4-8" with TSSN+ in the vicinity that fell in a span of 2 hours (after spending much of the day with a icy mix).

Yeah, but it makes sense. This vort that swings through creates the first low.

I understand why, but it doesn’t make it any easier to stomach that we have a 970s bomb exploding off of Hatteras and a historically cold airmass entrenched over us and we are gonna miss out. Just been a tragic decade for snow in Central Maryland. Sigh.

Love the GFS, Canadian has had to much maple syrup, and King EurNo is about to make or break the thread for the day. Go team.

I think the positive was the backside sw coming in like the rgem showed at the end of its run. Trying to phase instead of “kick”

i think this happens saturday night into sunday

I remember 2 buggies that were close in misses recently that this kind of is reminiscent of. 1. March 2014-a 75 mile difference between flurries and a blizzard. 2. March 2020-same

It's a massive gyre so a tug NW like that certainly is possible.

UKMET looks improved with the lobe early on but it has been so far east for this threat that it probably needs a really big improvement to get close to us

CMC and GFS very similar. I don’t think I’m getting 14 inches of snow in the Triad. But 6 to maybe pockets of 8 to 10? Starting to feel doable. Don’t know about likely but doable. .

I ran this for last nights CMCE. Starting to see more members showing the SSW.

A little “snow effect” snow?

You would think this may trend north a tad will see

CMC is a Monster Hit!

1/28 12z GGEM Total QPF

this is going to hit us hard mark my words

That run also has multiple lows