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Chubbs- A reminder, once again....As you may recall- a seperate thread was created for your ongoing quest to debate Chester County Pa with the resident troll here. If you could take that "debate" there, along with the troll- I think many of us who don't care about Chester County Pa weather site trivia would be better off for it. Thanks

Not too bad considering the torch we had to endure

Not looking good for a second severe season here. I feel like I live in California with this weather to be honest

Most areas in the +1 to +3 range for the first two weeks of October. FWN….+2.1° TTN……+1.2° SMQ…..+2.1° NBW….+3.1° EWR…..+2.6° NYC…..+1.7° JFK……+1.6° LGA……+0.9 HPN…..+3.4° ISP…….+3.2° BDR…..-0.2° HVN…..+3.2° DXR……+3.1° POU…..+1.6°

Chuck's research shows a bias toward a +NAO during winter when October is negative. I'd like to know where DT gets his idea of the opposite. Don't get me wrong, I'm pulling for DT's opinion to be right. Just wondering the basis of his opinion.

Good luck

It's been active. Just active in the Atlantic.

It is finally over. Residual fog this AM but the birds are back chirping away.

Next frame is even better i would take that

6z gfs

Globalism can refer to cultural, political or economic exchange. Our over-reliance on Asia has imported a large number of invasive species.

When both the Euro and Gfs have something.. we watch.. so far out though

That looks alot like Sandy

Yes, data adjustment is needed and successful. Here is a map of Coatesville 1SW COOP station locations from NCDC, illustrating the large range in station local site conditions for this one COOP station. The COOP data was collected by volunteers whose lives changed with time, resulting in station changes. Also attached a satellite views showing the complexity of local land use. Coatesville is a steel town. The link below provides information on the steel mill. When the Coatesville Coop first collected data in 1894 the steel mill was the largest in the US. The mill reached its largest size during WWII with over 6000 employees. The Coatesville 1SW COOP station was active from 1894 to 1982. The stations are numbered starting with site #1, the most recent which was active from 1948 to 1982. Site #6 is the oldest. Pictures of sites 1 and 2 are shown a couple of posts above. You aren't going to get an accurate picture of Chester County's climate if you assume that all of these stations are exactly the same. Fortunately we have thousands of weather stations in the US. Which makes it easy to separate weather and station moves using well established procedures. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lukens_Steel_Company

Low of 50. Some nice crisp fall nights ahead.

Euro looks solid

GFS and the Euro now have something late month

We don't have any Chesco stations that haven't had major changes. But one station, Phoenixville, provides consistent data for 1890-1926 vs present. Phoenixville has had moves and station changes, but has remained on the local water property site since 1893. This site, with a small reservoir, has not seen any significant development during the period of station operation. There have been major station changes at Phoenixville however, which we have documented previously on this site. The station ran spuriously warm between 1927 and 1949, particularly on summer afternoons; and, ran cool in the 1990s. There is also a fair bit of missing data Charts below: 1) Phoenixville and NOAA Chesco showing good agreement on the roughly 4F Chesco temperature rise between the 1890s and present. 2) Adjusted and unadjusted temperatures for Phoenixville showing the roughly 4F warming in both the adjusted and unadjusted data, but with large adjustments for 1927-49 and the 1990s as discussed above, and 3) Annual 90F days for Phoenixville and other stations showing a large spurious spike at Phoenixville in the 1927-48 period, illustrating the station warmth during this period. We've been going over the Chester County data in detail for over a year. Well documented in the Chester County thread. I would be glad to answer any questions if you are interested. The raw data in Chester County paints a very consistent picture of warming that is captured accurately by NOAA. The fact that Paul (Chescowx) can't find warming tells us more about himself than Chester County's weather.

Uh oh. raindance's post got the most likes in this thread. Be on alert for the opposite to happen.

Looks like Halloween is going to be cool/cold this year. In the 2000s, we've had some very warm Halloweens

Are there not any long term, reliable stations in the area that haven't moved or seen major changes around them?

A warm pool around the Aleutians makes sense. All the seasonal models are unanimously showing an Aleutian ridge this winter. It fits a normal canonical La Niña Aleutian ridge regime. They are also all maintaining a -PDO, strength TBD