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3+4= potato

Lots of time things will change

Agreed. @Terpeastsaid it best. As long as the 500 energy is to our south, we're in a good place.

This is what I’m saying.

Yes but that system had an STJ wave associated with it. That was a miller a/b hybrid. It definitely phased late. So similar but not a pure NS miller b like this. These are even more precarious for us.

Jan 26, 2011 also developed early and everyone north of I-66 scored.

No.

The best sign is someone said JB thinks it’s going to be warm.

I find that our beloved forum is deaf to these warnings despite them being absolutely spot on (I guess it's not wanting to acknowledge fail probability when the models seem to "lock in"). We need to view this like it's still in fantasy range! I feel like wave 2 would be simpler...

Vonn with another downhill win in Austria today.

An A+ for you on your knowledge of the Rainthuen area....play your cards right and I may be able to secure you a seat in the lead car in the 2026 Rainthuen Christmas Parade...

Plus the MJO is forecast to move into a more favorable position by late month.

It’s hard to see that clearly because this bigger amplification is in front of it and will impact the flow behind it. But that wave is a more normal way for us to get a snowstorm. Nothing in this type pattern is likely a super long track thing. Models just aren’t resolving these waves at range in this noisy flow with phasing involved. But that one is feel more comfortable if it looked good across guidance at say 48 or 72 hours. This first one I won’t feel good until I see the death band over me! I am also not sold this is over after the 20th. The day 15 across guidance doesn’t look bad to me. -AO, trough near Hawaii. PNA going positive again. Frankly it looks like the day 5-10 looked when it was at day 15. Im pretty sure it’s going to snow this month. In just warning against trying to identify the exact threat at range in this pattern. It’s likely we won’t know until inside 2-3 days when we do finally get a hit.

Torch is cold, weenie is sensible, snow is rain

Thankfully Mt. Holly had a good update this evening on their discussion… KEY MESSAGE 3...Potential for a coastal storm Thursday and/or Friday. Impacts/details are very uncertain as these will depend on how close to the coast the low tracks. For Thursday and Friday, the upper air pattern is forecast to become more amplified across the East. The sharpening of an upper-level trough will develop a storm, however the details are much less certain at this time. The model consensus is pointing toward a storm, however whether this will become a coastal storm or one that simply goes out to sea is the forecast challenge. Some guidance suggests a significant winter storm while others are a miss. If the southern energy can remain out ahead of the northern stream energy along with a trough axis more neutral or becoming negatively tilted, then the surface low would tend to be closer to the coast. The guidance that has more of a positive tilted upper-level trough shear the system northeastward and keeps it out to sea. The closer to the coast scenario would favor more precipitation westward across our region, with the timing either Thursday or Friday. Given the wealth of uncertainty in the details, did not alter the forecast away from the NBM guidance. This continues to show low chances for now of rain and/or snow Thursday and Thursday night, however it currently is dry for Friday. If some of the guidance is correct, then PoPs would need to be added/increased for Friday. A colder air mass is forecast to be in place at the of next week and to start next weekend.

Wow, that prevent defense at the end was something...If only we can score a winter storm as easy as the Rams did at the end.

Snow gud, cake yummy, fire bad, 2+2 is spaghetti

I don't want the keys to a bus headed for a cliff.

Is your view for the 18th similar?

I’m feeling optimistic still in general. Just saying I’m not putting any emotional investment on this one particular threat. Been burned way too many times by these type things. I’ll get excited when I see the flakes falling with these miller b NS phase setups.

If the mjo charts are accurate, the models will trend colder east of the rockies unless there is more to the story lol.

Lot more drinking this Kool aid than I thought would.

PSU ur always the one who makes sense and keeps it real!!! We appreciate that!!

M4.0" with the first round - gorgeous wet snow sitting on everything. Mild temp at 30F but just cold enough to stay frozen as the chilly air sweeps in. Future radar brings 2nd round in between midnight and 1 am. Not expecting much if anything with that feature. Seems to skip over for some reason - guessing its mostly lake enhancement and I'm just too far inland.

Honestly this isn’t the kind of setup that gets resolved until inside 72 hours. Maybe 48. And honestly this exact type setup when we’re waiting on a surface redevelopment associated with NS phasing and an amplifying upper low…is some of our biggest last minute busts. A recent example was March 8 2018. Expecting 4-8” across Maryland 12 hours out and the whole thing developed late and totally missed us. And I could rattle off more examples both good and bad. Similar one in 1996 and the other way. We went to bed expecting nothing and a NJ northeast storm and we got 6-10”. This is not a long track type thing. Even if it looked great at 48 hours I’d be hella nervous. Just warning y’all in case we get some kind of consensus in the next day or two…I still wouldn’t feel great. These type setups historically have given the models fits right up until game time. And unfortunately the typical error is for things to get going slower and shift northeast at the end. Not always. I have an example that developed southwest of guidance but it was 30 years ago!