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Very true. I need sleep lol

5 run trend of GFS

Not many times we get to argue over 15-30” vs 35-40” clown maps within 3 days of a storm

Models are in pretty good agreement with regards to the ULL energy diving a precip maxima from ETN down into SC/NC. The main question continues to be the coastal. ON euro/gfs/nam our starting rations are 15:1 and peak at 24:1 toward the end of the event. It won't take much qpf at all. .5 qpf at 15:1 is 7.5"

Unlikely for this to offer a good surprise for the forum, but I'd wait to see if the energy from the kicker winds up more strung out and further WNW. Very curious to see the 500mb depictions at 12z and 00z. Im not buying the low closing off down in Georgia. Regardless, fun one to track.

WB 6Z GFS says Sunday will at least be windy and frigid.

Weather Next 00z has the .25-.50 line back to my area with .50 creeping into NE Tn. The 18z crapped out and never finished. That is a big improvement west over 12z yesterday, which barely had the .25-.50 in far NE Tn.

GFS OTS but what is that piece of energy coming in from Quebec.. its looks like it originated from the North Atlantic

agree, not off to a good start. there's literally nothing pointing to this making the turn northwest.

Rather localized and uncertain on extent of impact. Potential exists, but I’m not seeing a bonafide signal for robust stationary S/SW lake response. We shall see as it becomes more immediate. Much less enthusiastic about inland push of significance than LOT seems to be. But I’m not a met for good reason

The AI GFS QPF totals, .14 in Nashville, with generally 17:1 to 20:1 ratios. .20 the next tier of counties eastward, trailing SE towards Chattanooga. Around .30 in Cookeville to McMinn Co. .40 in counties along the 75 corridor from my area down to Knoxville. .5 around Morristown. .5 to .7 along the NC border areas into SW VA. The DGZ in nearly to the surface with -12c being around 2400 feet and high humidity from there to 700mb.

Well it was fun tracking but this one is done.

Yeaaaaa this one ain’t for us. You would need the mother load of drastic shifts to occur almost every single run with 0 steps backward from here on out after another GFS whiff. Lots of winter to go

Nearly two feet in Raliegh is not realistic but it's promising to see on the map. 26 years ago Raleigh got 20 inches and that was the all-time record for single storm. Even a foot will shutdown the city for a week.

I think it’s time to write this storm off. If closes off too far to our south . Onto the next one..

Gfs way southeast

Still showing that dry slot over Upstate SC. It just refuses to get rid of that.

All part of my plan…

Wider View

Positive that we did not lose it to the east yet; we wait for 6Z EURO.

6z GFS looks more realistic instead of 35-40" over more areas, its 15-30" depending on location.

6z south and east, the fold begins, not the start we wanted unfortunately

WB 6Z GFS

GFS isn’t going to get it done. It’s a step back from 0Z.

Well se will enjoy it. Not anyone else