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  2. It may just stay above 90 most of the summer
  3. Rory just got back together with his wife. Maybe that will help him. Not sure how you can’t have Bryson after his showings in the first two majors. Scheffler is obvious, Schauffle and Morikawa are playing well. I would never count out Koepka either. There’s always a wildcard but I’m not sure who. Maybe Keegan Bradley because he’s been playing decently and he grew up in VT.
  4. I was using the 500 mb maps and not any CPC definition. The AMO index doesn’t really do justice to the extreme North Atlantic warming in recent years. The index doesn’t look nearly as impressive at the raw SSTs. This is probably why there were warm AMO periods in the 1950s to early 1960s without a Southeast ridge with a deep -PNA trough in the West and -AO -NAO Greenland block. I have actually been mentioning the rapidly warming Atlantic in relation to the record Southeast ridge since the 15-16 super El Niño.
  5. Looking like the first heat wave of the year. Ugh
  6. CTP is on with the heat next week. Cranking up the 90's for Tuesday at least... Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 91.
  7. 55. Feels great out there.
  8. You are consistently 2 degrees cooler than me in the mornings. Low here will be 48.
  9. Meh a few bolts. Meanwhile we hot and heavy starting Tuesday next week.
  10. Today
  11. Looks like SNH into SVT and western MA bet chance at front has slowed.
  12. Low of 52.5. Mid September before it gets this cool again?
  13. But chilly on commute into DC today.... low 50s.....heat on the train!!!
  14. Slight risk Friday! Awt ...Northeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Northeast on Friday, as a cold front moves southeastward across the region. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be in the mid 60s F, which will result in a narrow corridor of instability in the central and northern Appalachians. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will likely form in the higher terrain around midday, with several small clusters moving eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. There is some disagreement concerning how much instability will develop across the northeast on Friday. More aggressive solutions suggest that moderate instability could be in place ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings that show moderate instability, have veered winds and steep lapse rates at low-levels, and moderate to strong deep-layer shear. These soundings would support a severe threat with either large hail or wind damage possible. The severe threat would be concentrated near and after peak heating as instability maximizes during the late afternoon.
  15. WB 0Z EURO; hot and dry next 10 days....summer is here right on time.
  16. 0Z UKMET: 990 mb Newfoundland Sunday: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 30.2N 77.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 13.06.2024 36 30.0N 77.4W 1009 39 0000UTC 14.06.2024 48 31.7N 75.9W 1008 33 1200UTC 14.06.2024 60 32.9N 73.8W 1007 36 0000UTC 15.06.2024 72 34.5N 71.8W 1005 32 1200UTC 15.06.2024 84 37.6N 67.7W 1001 41 0000UTC 16.06.2024 96 42.2N 61.6W 993 44 1200UTC 16.06.2024 108 47.8N 55.0W 990 37 0000UTC 17.06.2024 120 53.6N 51.5W 982 42 1200UTC 17.06.2024 132 POST-TROPICAL
  17. From Ben Noll's site. Long range ECMWF-UKMET superblend indicative of La Niña and AMO+ pattern taking hold by ASO. If this unfolds, expect a dry late summer pattern into autumn. Caveat being any landfalling tropical systems moving inland over the Southeast and Tennessee Valley regions to break potential dry conditions. We're still in a period of transitional ENSO until that time, however. We should still experience periods of frontal boundary precip through June into mid-July, with hot and humid days intermingled by August. How hot and humid remains the question, though. Muggy August and September humidity can still lead to isolated evening thunderstorms, so here's to hoping we avoid any outright drought conditions.
  18. This so-called inflation-adjusted tornado count says that we have made it to 1000 tornadoes exactly after our active days of May
  19. I hope something. The last few years has produced easily the most boring weather I've ever seen in this area. I figure it has to break sometime. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
  20. Probably August. I think we get 2 TS systems here, one close to a hurricane here (a huge hurricane hitting the bay) in September
  21. I was starting to get disappointed today with the early convection runs. I'm hoping this last one isn't a tease.
  22. When do you think we get a tropical system up here? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
  23. today was about as good as it gets. low 70s here in upper NW.
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