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That's Baja Blast to you

From the list of snowstorms I provided earlier, I checked Islip's record. Islip's record covers all the snowstorms beginning with the January 1964 blizzard. Only the January 29-31, 1966 blizzard brought less than 6" to Islip (5.0"). My current thinking is that Islip will see 4"-8", but we'll see if that holds up.

This from the station that for years posted snow totals and temperature records for Dulles airport as part of WDC records.

Anyone have a good NAO dataset they could share? Something more than the ncep teleconnection forecast.

What are the sites you got to track current conditions (upper levels, water vapor)? I use Ewall WPC surface COD SPC Any other good ones?

Gonna go with about 3" final call here in Normal, which is significantly better than what I thought I would get about 2 days ago

It's interesting how being objective and balanced about a snow threat can upset some people so much. Everything has to be positive and rosy and amazing or the sensitive types freak out. Yes I will enjoy whatever snow falls probably more than most people. And the edge I was referring to is the threshold of something historical that gets remembered and mentioned in future years. Yes I do think 6"+ is likely in and around NYC, but 4" is plausible on the low low end if several things trend negatively. Just as 18" is plausible on the high end. Anyone who's followed weather for a while knows nothing is ever guaranteed. 12 hours of snow to sleet to dryslot should be a lot of fun. It's a high impact event. But if we can somehow get north of the dryslot, it could morph into the 24 hour plus event that some models were showing 2 days ago... and that a lot of the online/media hype is based on.

Quite a jog south on HRRR. Hmmm

i dont ever wanna deal with alcohol withdrawals again even though it was mild, right after new years last year. haven't sipped the sauce in 2 weeks

It hasn't really come up yet in the main thread but the radar hole / virga watching is going to be painful on Saturday night.

So more of a sleet fest for a chunk of the forum?

Got about 6 out of that one but we were never supposed to be in it out here, so it was cool. Mostly lost a lot to front end rain. .

sleet >>>>> frz rain

The ice stuff won’t verify for us. Sleet fest will tho

Man isn't that the truth. This is pretty much a long track and other than Jan 2016, long tracks have a special way of reminding all of us how hard it is to nail things beyond 48-72 hours. Nearly all bigger storms have complicated synoptics and stream interaction. Models in agreement at 96+ hours doesn't mean nearly as much as it looks like at the time it happens. I never marry a solution or make definitive calls beyond 2-3 days out anymore. Learned that lesson way too many times over the years lol

16.4”

I blame them for including the islands on the graphic.

Seen it happen before. 48 hours before Nemo in 2013 TWC had me in a 1-3” range. Went ended up with 30”

@mappyisn't paid enough (or at all) by @stormtrackerto deal with the drama over there

Saturday record low maxes possible. Can you imagine NYC with a high of 6f? I wonder what it was in SLK that day. Record Low Maximum Temperatures: January 24: KEWR: 15/1936 KBDR: 20/2014 KNYC: 6/1882 KLGA: 18/1987 KJFK: 19/1987 KISP: 19/2014

These would be 2/1/21 like totals at least for the city and LI. Much as I think this will be an impressive storm here I don’t see that kind of an outcome at least here.

lol, I just changed it above to the state view.

You are correct. I accidentally referred to five years ago pertaining to NYC (January 30-February 4, 2021 snowstorm that brought 17.4" to NYC).