All Activity

Hmm while im not as familiar with east coast climate, that seems pretty much impossible to get a total shutout in new England. Shitty compard to climo, yes, but shutout or even close, never. Im in SE Michigan, i turn 43 next week and the least snowy winter Detroit has recorded during my lifetime was 23.4" in 1997-98. 2023-24 was right there at 23.5". Go north in Michigan and snow towns were calling 2023-24 with its 60, 80, 100" a "non-winter". So all of this worry about the worst case scenarios is STILL relative to one's climo. Even IF its a strong or super nino, many other factors come into play too. So I can say with 100% confidence that any area north of NYC will not be shutout.

Pouring rain here now and windswept near RDU. This is great as we need it

.65 nw Cecil County :)

.54” rain today

YES!!!

Yep. 5 in. diameter happened today with the DRT - SAT lone supercell. And still have some potential tomorrow (Thursday).

0.49", dzl at obs

Nice little line of storms in north Orange and Guilford counties tonight. Saw the lightning when i left work tonight at RDU.

We need a good 3+ day streak of 70+ temps region wide. 46 and misery mist just ain’t cutting it. This orange glow must be maintained at all costs!

Nice steady to almost heavy rain in Gainesville.

Up to 3.5 in. hailstones reported so far this evening from ongoing supercell between Del Rio - San Antonio, in Camp Wood. More severe-warned cells are coming up further west in SWTX. Which likely means next ML shortwave is entering the state in WTX.

We have a Nostradamus among us…. Or should I say Tipstradamus?

Love talking Stein! Drought !!

It will be rainy tonight into tomorrow morning. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall appears likely. Following the rainfall, temperatures will top out in the lower to perhaps middle 60s through Saturday. May will likely open with cooler than normal conditions. Sunday could be especially cool with highs only in the upper 50s despite partly sunny skies. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -5.41 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.224 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.2° (1.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Next week there’s 2-3 days of low -mid 70’s at least. One day has 75+ potential

Snow showers this evening. Chilly day.

He’s got an itchy trigger finger . I think he senses the dry summer coming https://x.com/growingwisdom/status/2049636199933858274?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Hard to believe my area has only been 'abnormally dry'. With the update tomorrow I expect to be in moderate drought category.

73 at CEF today. Could be the last 70+ here for a bit from what i read in these spaces

Yeah looks like a nothing burger again. Maybe a tenth, which is what I expected.

Can’t wait until the diurnal range is from 95 to 80.

How much snow pack you have left? Mine finally gave about 2 weeks ago

71F off low of 38F. Diurnal ranges been slowly closing up but I think my favorite weather is 30s to 70s… though 40s to 80s probably does top it.

I got ~0.15” this morning.

That sounds logical, but it’s not how the real Earth behaves. A true global average does have a seasonal cycle, and it’s not a sampling problem—it’s physics. The key issue is that the hemispheres aren’t equal. The Northern Hemisphere has a lot more land, and land heats and cools much faster than oceans. The Southern Hemisphere is mostly ocean, which responds slowly and dampens temperature swings. So when the Northern Hemisphere warms in summer, it pushes the global average up more strongly than the Southern Hemisphere can offset during its winter. The result is a real, global annual oscillation. If both hemispheres were identical (same land/ocean mix, same heat capacity), then yes—your cancellation idea would work. But they’re not, so it doesn’t. Also, every independent global dataset—NASA GISS, NOAA, HadCRUT—shows the same seasonal wiggle. That wouldn’t happen if it were just “Iowa with a fancy name.” So the graph is doing two things at once: The up-and-down is the seasonal cycle (dominated by Northern Hemisphere land) The overall rise is the long-term warming trend Seeing both together is exactly what you’d expect from a properly constructed global temperature record.