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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Jns2183 replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I mean it is 1030am and I see the halo sun. Did we not expect temperature to rise at all today? Don't most winter storms have a component of dynamic cooling? If anything today I would pay attention to mid level dry air intrusion. That's why I'm bullish on more freezing rain/drizzle than most. I think we see an extended period of freezing drizzle at the end. That's outcome of less preceiptitation in total. Much more ice Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk -
For sure. Went from 0.8 QPF to 0.4 in two HRRR Runs. as you said it will bounce around but it will be a relatively thin band of 0.8-1.0QPF IMO with a more general 0.4-0.6 for most. Mesos have much spottier precip compared to globals
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15/4 deep deep cold
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Boxing Night Snow/Sleet/Ice Dec 26-27 Storm Thread/Obs.
CoolHandMike replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
i nearly spit out my coffee just now. -
That sounds accurate
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Boxing Night Snow/Sleet/Ice Dec 26-27 Storm Thread/Obs.
Chadzachadam replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
If I’ve learned anything about this type of storm it’s that the warm nose is always stronger/faster than progged. Maybe 1/4” of snow then sleet sleet sleet and some glaze is my forecast for Philly. Maybe an inch total. Best of luck to all -
They are typically a bit conservative
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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Superstorm replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Like your thinking. The models starting to show some real action. . -
30 at home. Hoping it won’t be too bad once we make the trip home
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A relatively balmy 1.5° here off a low of -6.5°
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Accuweather only has 3-6" for most of us, with the 6-12" reserved for interior upstate New York
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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
canderson replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
It’s super dry air out there - static shock city this morning -
MJO812 started following OBS/Totals for 12/26-27 Storm
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Latest HRRR shifted east with the heavy banding and hits eastern Long Island. The band is going to keep moving.
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A few raindrops at 31
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Yea and? They are aware and don't expect it to affect accumulations and increased amounts. Most of the snow is going to fall in a 6 hour timeframe when precip is heavy. I could see a mix in southern areas mostly after the damage has been done.
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2025-2026 ENSO
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Thing is, 2010-11 had a very relaxed Pacific jet (we haven't had that since 2013-15). That's why December and January went all the way through cold. And the west wasn't really that warm in 10-11 (like we had in 13-14 and 14-15). Without a relaxed Pacific jet, I expect things to torch at some point in January. Coldest case scenario is January 2018, which was near normal. February is going to torch. (Sorry for those who love cold, but that's how -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD years tend to work. You just have to hope that winter returns in March. That did happen in 2017 and 2018, and even to a lesser extent, the last week of March 2011.) -
Im about to go to Key food . Its always crowded before a snowstorm.
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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
HBGCPA10 replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Temps creeping up in West Hanover Township 30.2, dew point of 12 is going to be the saving grace for frozen precipitation. -
Think we’re mostly waiting until early or mid January. We’ll see.
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Gotta get the bread and milk!
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Boxing Night Snow/Sleet/Ice Dec 26-27 Storm Thread/Obs.
ChescoWx replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
East Nantmeal NW Chesco Cloudy skies with some virga approaching from the NW. 24.7 degrees DP 10.9 -
It could also be overdone. It's just something to watch.
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26th-27th event, coming at us like a wounded duck.
codfishsnowman replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
20 miles north baby! -
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
monadnocks replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
Welcome! I’m not that far west from and we have snow cover. The last storm dropped about 2” on top of the half melted pack that remained. -
Warm noses always seem to over perform. Or come out of nowhere
