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I believe last week we were discussing the lack of beneficial rain. My fear for this winter is us turning into a cold desert. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I have like the Euro control of the weeklies. Meaning that if the ensemble and the control don't match, that is a problem as the control is often right. It spotted the push back on the colder temps for early December. It wasn't completely right, but there was a warm front embedded that the ensemble didn't see. This is this afternoons December map. I don't use these maps verbatim, but just to get a general sense of what is on the table if the 0z Euro was run past 16 days and all the way to Jan 4th! The ensemble shows this general depiction but MUCH more washed out - seasonably cold. It is also important to remember that seasonal cold at range...is probably colder in reality. -15F departures (relative to norms) is insane for a 30 day map. edit: To me, that is showing signs of the stratospheric warming as the latter part of that run is brutally cold in the lee of the Canadian Rockies. We see that often w/ strat warms. Cold dumps west and spreads east. The last week of this run is almost 40 BN in the Rockies. Notice those aren't reflected strongly on this map...it had to eras some warm departures in those places.

I meant the affects of the SSW itself..not the other factors as Tip eluded to.

Why not? Other long range models run daily like GEFS. Long range should always be taken with a grain, regardless, due to high levels of forecast uncertainty. But why not run them daily since despite unreliability they can at least hint at potential trend changes past 2 weeks. The EW have been halfway decent imho.

the weeklies should not run every day. so stupid

After Dec 15 is when I'll start getting excited. Anything before that is gravy.

If we keep pushing back I can have fun with the running joke... pattern is changing by December 1...no December 10...christmas...New Years, definitely mid January, Feb will be big...hello spring! This is a great visual for context, thanks! MJO could be a factor too...just looked at euro/gfs forecasts. Both have a robust wave propagating into 6/7. Obviously MJO forecasting is extremely iffy at this range, but when you look at the GFS/euro evolution around/shortly after Thanksgiving...its a pretty damn close match to what you would expect for a transition from 6 to 7. So if the MJO signal ends up being overplayed...you may see significant changes to guidance for this period.

Today’s Euro Weekly 2m temp anomalies vs yesterday’s run: Dec 1-7: ~same Dec 8-14: similar for most/slightly stronger cold in Lakes region Dec 15-21: similar for most/slightly colder NNE Dec 22-28: similar for most/slightly colder NE/slightly less cold Lakes region:

But again ... it's may be splitting hairs. If there's -WPO/-EPO through other means, you're ending up in the same consequence.

That's about right.... it takes about 20 days ( three weeks)... I've shown this before but here. This example was 2004. Text back high altitude intrusion event, then nodal mass down welling with 3 or so week lag prior to AO forcing/'blocking' This example actually first became evident over Xmas week prior to Jan 1 ... and the AO crashed by the 20th.

Now that stations around my area are starting to update for November, some snow totals from them per NOAA co-op station data. Newcomb, which is about 8 miles from me but at lower elevation, 2 inches of snow, Oneida 1.5 inches of snow, Tazewell 1.5 inches of snow. The Southeast KY stations near me haven't reported yet, nor have Norris and Maynardville which are just south of my area. That's fairly impressive for early November.

Mid December I’d think…

Youngins

He is a smart guy but he has been wrong in the past.

Today’s Euro Weeklies 10 mb 60N mean zonal wind isn’t as weak as recent runs: Today’s run (11/19): Yesterday’s (11/18): Does anyone else see what I’m referring to? I’m not just talking about whether it actually reverses. I’m talking more about the period afterward.

So essentially, (let's say it is occurring now or in the beginning phases), we probably wouldn't see that troposphere respond probably until late December?

I’m not sure we can be confident on a west coast ridge for mid-late December. Paul Roundy has been vehemently disagreeing and thinks the subseasonal forcing supports -PNA/SE ridge after early December. When he talks you have to listen, the guy basically wrote the book on the book on the MJO (Roundy MJO plots)

the other clue ... if this pattern change, which we're at t-minus 6 or 7 days from actively reconstructing, was preceded and ultimately coupled to a canonical SSW, the latter would have taken place by the first week of the month. There was nothing...

One of the biggest caveats to the first week or two of December is the SE Ridge setting up as the cold slowly propagates eastward. While I do think it gets beat down as we head through the month, would likely hinder our chances for a bit. Hoping for a repeat of last year with the ridge amplification being grossly overstated in the long range routinely.

Little ol' Wachusett in MA is opening Saturday Nov 22. 6 days earlier than usual (they shoot for Black Friday) If anyone wants to save $10 per season pass (a drop in the bucket) message me

looks like we're waiting until past tday before any system of note looks likely to impact the region snow chances still naso great imby climatologically speaking but we're not far off now

Atleast Elias can't use Rodriguez as an excuse now to not sign a front line starting pitcher. I could just imagine Elias saying "we didn't sign anyone because when Grayson is back we'll have a 3 headed monster at the top of the rotation with Rogers and Braddish" Ni excuses now for Elias

I thought there was a weak signal up around 10 hpa which strengthened down around 30 hpa and especially 50 hpa? But I may have diagnosed incorrectly

What else will I do at 7am on a Saturday?

I don't like the fact that it isn't (first) emergent in the 10 hpa ... This appear to be up-welling from a very strong constructive interference at mid and upper level troposphere between Asia and the N. Pacific. I'm not sure it matters? ha. I mean, whether it's a SSW --> down-welling in the canonical sense and total behavior, or... some sort of fantastic ridge resonance that's bulging the disk from the bottom, the end result may end up with the same consequence... You get blocking and jet distributions S of normal PV latitudes ...and that in this case (sometimes it affects/offloads in Europe/Eurasia preferentially) modeled to favor our side of the hemisphere for a cold mass delivery/jet. It's an interesting question... but if you look at the GFS's 10hpa, no clue there's a warming event. All SSWs in the monitoring history going back to the late 1970s start between 1 and 10hpa, and then down well. This appears to be a "bulging" event. Similar to what Kevin lacks on his anniversary nights...