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I mean it is 1030am and I see the halo sun. Did we not expect temperature to rise at all today? Don't most winter storms have a component of dynamic cooling? If anything today I would pay attention to mid level dry air intrusion. That's why I'm bullish on more freezing rain/drizzle than most. I think we see an extended period of freezing drizzle at the end. That's outcome of less preceiptitation in total. Much more ice Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

For sure. Went from 0.8 QPF to 0.4 in two HRRR Runs. as you said it will bounce around but it will be a relatively thin band of 0.8-1.0QPF IMO with a more general 0.4-0.6 for most. Mesos have much spottier precip compared to globals

15/4 deep deep cold

i nearly spit out my coffee just now.

That sounds accurate

If I’ve learned anything about this type of storm it’s that the warm nose is always stronger/faster than progged. Maybe 1/4” of snow then sleet sleet sleet and some glaze is my forecast for Philly. Maybe an inch total. Best of luck to all

They are typically a bit conservative

Like your thinking. The models starting to show some real action. .

30 at home. Hoping it won’t be too bad once we make the trip home

A relatively balmy 1.5° here off a low of -6.5°

Accuweather only has 3-6" for most of us, with the 6-12" reserved for interior upstate New York

It’s super dry air out there - static shock city this morning

Latest HRRR shifted east with the heavy banding and hits eastern Long Island. The band is going to keep moving.

A few raindrops at 31

Yea and? They are aware and don't expect it to affect accumulations and increased amounts. Most of the snow is going to fall in a 6 hour timeframe when precip is heavy. I could see a mix in southern areas mostly after the damage has been done.

Thing is, 2010-11 had a very relaxed Pacific jet (we haven't had that since 2013-15). That's why December and January went all the way through cold. And the west wasn't really that warm in 10-11 (like we had in 13-14 and 14-15). Without a relaxed Pacific jet, I expect things to torch at some point in January. Coldest case scenario is January 2018, which was near normal. February is going to torch. (Sorry for those who love cold, but that's how -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD years tend to work. You just have to hope that winter returns in March. That did happen in 2017 and 2018, and even to a lesser extent, the last week of March 2011.)

Im about to go to Key food . Its always crowded before a snowstorm.

Temps creeping up in West Hanover Township 30.2, dew point of 12 is going to be the saving grace for frozen precipitation.

Think we’re mostly waiting until early or mid January. We’ll see.

Gotta get the bread and milk!

East Nantmeal NW Chesco Cloudy skies with some virga approaching from the NW. 24.7 degrees DP 10.9

It could also be overdone. It's just something to watch.

20 miles north baby!

Welcome! I’m not that far west from and we have snow cover. The last storm dropped about 2” on top of the half melted pack that remained.

Warm noses always seem to over perform. Or come out of nowhere