All Activity

To me, the faint smell is on the edge of being perfumy. When it's much stronger it reminds me of burnt rubber. My one experience of fresh in-your-face skunk (animal control officer friend got nailed, entered his home while I was visiting) it was like having a stick shoved up my nose - overwhelming. He walked thru the door and instantly the stench filled the room. Looks like another snowstorm stays south, though it looks like we get the FRDZ mess tomorrow night into Saturday. Daughter is flying into PWM tomorrow morning, hope all goes as scheduled.

been a long time since a day like this

I'm so out on things I had no idea it was supposed to do anything tonight until my wife asked. First thing I look at is 12z HRRR from this morning and ummm.... winter storm warning incoming?

We have picked up 0.18" of rain since midnight and 0.50" of rain over the last 3 days. We will see more rain later today and tonight before we dry out a bit tomorrow. A couple more showers Saturday as we start our long awaited warm up through much of next week. We could see highs near 70 degrees by Tuesday.

models showing 1.5-2 inches of rain today-nice drought denter and alot of the snowpack will go...

We have picked up 0.18" of rain since midnight and 0.50" of rain over the last 3 days. We will see more rain later today and tonight before we dry out a bit tomorrow. A couple more showers Saturday as we start our long awaited warm up through much of next week. We could see highs near 70 degrees by Tuesday.

Man call it the glue factory or whatever but the Euro has had this nailed to your mailbox for 15 days

Spot on. I was going to bring this up yesterday, how it seems like every warmup that's been called for the last few months has been muted and/or delayed.

Could almost be a silent passage ... ? at some point along the way the DP sneakiliy sheds 10F. The wind is already 0+ mph from the N/NE and the ceiling arrival time is perfect for cold capping in the diurnal cycle ( won't warm up enough to notice a change) so it may be hard to tell precisely when the front slips passed.

I agree, but HRRR and NAM were trying to trigger seasonal trauma...I feel like I may want a bit of mid level margin for error here, though.

Drain the swamp

Haven't paid much attention to this until now but man that's kind of a deck destroying look on a lot of guidance.

He’s in a good spot for this anyways. Doesn’t need to worry.

yeah I put the hrrr in the srefs category…outside of convection season

The backdoor starts coming through later this morning. 1mph isn’t a drain. Unless you mean that wind off the coast of ME.

I posted this in the main ENSO thread and CC forum. If we do see another stronger El Niño so soon after 2023-2024, then it may be another piece of the puzzle indicating that the PCC has shifted positive leading to the big spike in global temperatures since 2023. We probably need to get past the spring forecast barrier in order to know the details of how strong this one gets. It’s possible that the faster rate of warming since 2023 is related to a shift in the newly discovered PCC near Nino 1.2. Notice the current Nino 1.2 temperatures have warmed in recent weeks. The last El Niño in 2023-2024 also experienced earlier warming than past events as the Nino 1+2 warming was early also. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-52731-6?utm_campaign=related_content&utm_source=HEALTH&utm_medium=communities Much recent work focused on whether equatorial Pacific cooling over past decades is driven by anthropogenic effects or arises from internally-generated climate variability, like the IPO. A definitive anthropogenic link to the recent trends would allow us to reliably predict a cooler tropical Pacific. As the tropical Pacific is known to be a climatic pacemaker, for (at least) the near-future this would mitigate global warming via ocean heat uptake and low-level cloud feedbacks. Instead, if the cyclic IPO dominates the recent cooling, we may expect a strong warming when it reverses. In support of the first possibility, we have identified an emerging climate change signal in the tropical Pacific across different observational datasets and we call it the PCC. The PCC has distinctive ocean-atmosphere dynamics that differ from those associated with the IPO. We further demonstrate that the recent trends during the satellite era, which have been the focus of significant attention, result from a combination of IPO and PCC. The emerging PCC SST trend pattern features a narrow band of cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and warming elsewhere. Throughout this paper we have taken for granted the widespread assumption that the IPO is an internal mode of the climate system. However, while we worked to distinguish between the recurrent IPO-related decadal variability and the emerging PCC signal, we are open to the possibility that these two may have become coupled together by anthropogenic forcing. They have much in common: shoaling of the thermocline in the east, enhanced upwelling somewhere in the central-to-eastern equatorial Pacific and an enhanced zonal SST gradient across the equatorial Pacific. It seems reasonable to postulate that if the response to radiative forcing is the emerging PCC pattern seen here, then it could initiate coupled ocean-atmosphere feedbacks that favor a negative IPO state that also has an enhanced SST gradient24. This might explain why the most recent IPO swing has been extreme and robust (Fig. S1b). If so, this suggests that in nature forcing is projecting onto natural modes of variability, while it is not clear whether climate models can reproduce this behavior. A new perspective on how internal variability interacts with the climate change signal will be needed in future studies

Bear liver is gross btw

GFS trended back N a bit and EURO held serve, so have to see if the trend is done.

HRRR is nuts...

ho-hum 6-8"

"The spring forecast also suggests an active backdoor potential with the Northeast being the coolest relative to other areas." Yeah, springtime can be overrated in this area. smh When my son moved to Philadelphia, I told him. "At least you'll have milder springs." He does. Blooms of the same plants run a week or two earlier there.

Good. Keep it coming. I’m out of the numbers game for this season…I’d prefer it end up BN. Less snow to melt next week.

And forgettable for CoastalWx as well GHG *yawn*! Worst than 12/12/1992 when he lived in Brockton?! I got 22" in N Woburn that was 100% wet snow, most ever I had seen from single storm.

Dry air drain getting close for comfort here on that run.