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6z GEFS in the long range is also building a ridge. This has been on the model for the last 4-5 runs now, for the last week of May

Negative H5 dropping into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes is our best Summer pattern for storms

A classic east-based event is unfolding as the Kelvin Wave begins to surface at the coast of South America along with the associated thermocline/sea level response ^ “Sea Level and Equatorial Waves 09-May. In the context of the precursor signals of El Niño, a Kelvin wave has begun to arrive at the coasts of Ecuador. Among its first effects are the rise in sea level (20 cm), deepening of the thermocline... “

Area stations here at the new Pit1 are less than .25. It was still a cold and miserable day--typical spring day on the coast. I really wish I were at a point when I could be worrying about the TOTAL DISASTER which is the lawn here.

I'm getting hyped. More fuel for storms. This cool, dry, windy pattern is turning us into the Colorado Plateau. We need more weather like what we're having today.

Yeah mid level deck is moving out…just gotta mix out the low level crud. 47.6°

Looking at stations S Wey area had .31-.42 We knew

Some showers and iso storms today. Otherwise nice day when this burns off.

We lose some aspect of the past climate with every baseline temperature jump. But we have to wait until after the event to see specifically what changes will occur. The first one in 1997-1998 put a 1995-1996 snowy benchmark season out of reach for us. The same for the 1993-1994 record cold with benchmark snows in Central to Eastern PA. It was also the beginning of the all or nothing snowfall pattern which lead to more seasons of 30”+ and 18” or lower. Leading to a significant decline in the 19” to 29” winters which were common place from the 1960s to early 1990s. So every snowy season featured it least one KU benchmark event. The absence of KU events has been a feature of the low snowfall winters. It took around 9 years after that event 1997-1998 event for the warmth to make it to the Arctic leading to the big thickness drop and record lower range we have been in. Then a smaller jump in 2010 shifted the summer temperatures to a warmer base that we have been in. Then the historic December 2015 +13 kicked off the era of significantly warmer winters. Places like DC to Philly haven’t seen close to the cold and benchmark snow of the 2009-2010 winter. Same for the Great Lakes not repeating the benchmark snow and very cold conditions of 2013-2014. Plus the Boston historic snows in 2014-2015. Then the rapid warming of the WPAC east of a Japan following this event eventually leading to the faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet and decline in 2020s snowfall for us compared to the record snowy 2010s. We did get a nice bounce back winter in 2025-2026 with the first benchmark KU since 2020-2021 and 2021-2022. Still uncertain how the winter storm tracks will respond following this event. The 2023-2024 jump is most recent with 2 of the warmest winters on record occurring for the CONUS in the last 3 years. Hard to say how long the severe drought pattern which developed across the U.S and Canada following this event will last. It will be interesting to see if this 2026-2027 event can shift the pattern to wetter at least temporarily or shift us back to drier again following the event. Very challenging to do multiyear precipitation forecasting. It took 18 years between 1998 to 2016 for that baseline jump to occur. Then only 8 years between 2016 and 2024. Now all the models are indicating the first time for a +2.1 or greater ONI El Niño only 3 years apart and baseline temperature jump. So for the entire planet we are moving into an unknown zone with such rapid warming occurring over shorter intervals of time.

Here comes the next big WWB and DWKW. It’s also going to spark off TC’s

KEY MESSAGE 2: Frost/freeze risk Monday night/Tuesday morning over the western and central Alleghenies Almost a slam dunk for a widespread frost for more than half the CWA tomorrow night (N and W) - and a freeze in the nrn mtns. Dewpoints will be 25-30F - just low enough to allow the temps to be able to drop, but not too dry to keep frost away. Confidence in frost is near 100 pct, but for freeze is about 49 pct. Due to increasing confidence, frost advy and freeze warnings seem likely, but the consensus among the regional offices on this (midnight) shift was to allow at least one more forecast cycle for that to happen.

0z EPS is quite warm around May 17-18 then above average for the 2nd half of the month

That CFS model runs 4x a day. To only find slightly below average temps in that is not a big accomplishment lol

I honestly think JB does massive dab rips and just makes shit up.

Not even in Weak Nino threshold in almost mid May.. RONI has some ground to cover if this is going to be Super 57-58, +2.0 peak was +1.1 in May 65-66, +2.0 peak was +0.6 in May 72-73, +2.3 peak was +0.9 in May 82-83, +2.5 peak was +0.8 in May 91-92, +2.3 peak was +0.5 in May *closest analog 97-98, +2.4 peak was +1.0 in May 15-16, +2.4 peak was +0.8 in May

The 1895-1950 composite has some very warm Strong Nina Winter's. Since the dataset is somewhat small, flip that signal around for Strong Nino's unless it is based way more east... Here on the EC you don't call Strong La Nina's and Strong El Nino's both warm, if they are both based in Nino 3.4. People fall in the trap of looking solely at analogs, and imo this El Nino is developing a bit different (forcing west) vs previous Super Nino's.

I just don't know how reliable ENSO SST data from before 1948 is.. I know we kept a meticulous record of SOI though. Point is, I think this one is developing with ENSO forcing further west than the classic Strong Nino's of 72-73, 82-83, 97-98, so the corresponding pattern in the N. Pacific may be different - instead of so much NPH impact, there may be some movement of the PNA. It seems easy to call the temp composite warm because 6/6 Strong Nino's are, but besides the 80-85% chance that we have of having a +departure every month these days, I'm not so sure there is a warm signal in the mean for the East coast, US for the Winter, besides the +NAO probability (decadally and +2 years after Solar Max).

.54” here in E CT, lawn is happy.

Yep. The predicted rainfall has basically crashed out now. If we get a tenth that will be lucky with how most model runs look at this point. At some point, el nino should take hold and rain should return.

Oh what could have been if winter didn't disappear and March and April in 1977. It was already a big snow year as it was, but it could have been even bigger if March and April didn't absolutely torch. More recently, there was a snow on May 9, 2020 (as well as a freeze on May 18, 2023). Those events happened after very warm and low snow winters.

1998-99 was the first year of a double-year strong la nina. 1997-98 was the super el nino year, and yes, that one was a record low snow year. 1982-83 was a classic backloaded el nino winter, with the blizzard in February and late freeze/snow event on April 19-20.

I got only ~0.08” last night and only ~.01” during the daytime today, both pretty disappointing vs expectations. MTD is ~1.3”, ~1.2” of which fell one week ago (5/2) with a nice soaking 18 hour rain.

Tomorrow seems like it has potential for at least some storms of substance, even if not severe.

Nothing more soothing than a sunset nad knock.

.52 here. About what I expected. Nasty raw day and the clearing line as the sun was setting was a nice kick in the groin.