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Erin is about to put on a show.

Consolation this will be a great hurricane to watch

Fall can be nice until about December 1

Days and days of above average temps mixed with rain, mist and fog until mid April? I can’t friggin wait man.

Down to 975 mb.

Had a little light shower here, right before 7pm. Barely wet the driveway, but saw a rainbow off to the east:

Dude wow that's beautiful

Going to guess at this; JFK is probably <1 mile from Jamaica Bay and beyond that obviously has a longer fetch seabreeze off of the larger and much deeper Atlantic Ocean. HVN is further from the coast and can have a fetch of ~20 miles, Long Island Sound is not as deep. I believe in the area of 65 feet for the central area. Maybe the Sound Breeze takes longer to develop and thus HVN can have a higher maxima before the onset. Other than that, I got nuttin'.

Outflow is textbook. If it weren’t for some dry air intrusion we could see some insane RI. Even still heading towards 29/30c water temps should allow a shot at 135kt.

Picked up 0.07". Now a little more than an inch for Aug.

And also...how about Brandon Frickin' Young with 7.2 perfect innings??? (Darn you Urias--I KNEW that was gonna haopen just as a poke in the eye to Elias who should've kept him, lol). Baseball is a funny game! That was really something! What a way to get your first big league win, lol

Yeah I have concerns about Elias still being here when the new manager is selected--and don't trust him in letting the manager hire his own staff. Everybody but maybe Britton and the other guy (I think his name is Mayer?) has got to go. And you know...Drew French is not a terrible pitching coach either, imo

https://photos.fife.usercontent.google.com/pw/AP1GczNUEQdR2-TxQvjMZ6dEjDGAc6lMAaYlzeTU7d6q-NhI2wHuRUrjlbn3pQ=w985-h739-s-no-gm?authuser=0 Picture I took just before the storm hit. Saw a few gusts over 70 mph.

Didn't Matthew in (2016?) have that dual blob and it wasn't a big deal against intensification either>

I don’t think the dual blob structure is going to preclude Erin’s RI. The southerly mass of thunderstorms should either dissipate or form into a curved band. Even if it doesn’t, we’ve seen powerful hurricanes with a second convective mass such as Matthew. Honestly Matthew was a fascinating storm, I’m sure there are great papers discussing its structure. Not sure what caused it Very impressed with Erin’s gigantic ventilation right now, the anticyclonic outflow is sprawling across all quadrants

blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/787e7361-d0d7-456f-9b78-58c40d09ba5a Two separate "blobs" but the main center of circulation is the one to the north and east of the other "blob". Bit of dry air entrained in between them. SAL in front of Erin, and SAL behind it as well.

Below normal temps to end August sometimes help kick off that earliest wave of Fall color (beyond the stressed trees already showing some color). I am SOO ready.

I got yet another 1.44" of rain from this storm. This was expected to be a totally dry week. My August total is up to 4.32". Over the last six weeks my total is nearly 13 inches.

Erin getting “the look” now. Lots of dry air nearby to potentially slow this trend, but she’s looking ready to take off. Rotating CBs in the eyewall are a dead giveaway. I believe data says the eye is a bit bigger than the pinhole it looks to be on satellite, but IR is looking fierce now

Congratulations and best wishes.

I dunno, the best lift is well below the DGZ. Probably some shitty snow growth in that.

Yes Its a boy !

It’s not impossible, but Id be more willing to bet sea-surface wind stressing patterns over time forced the distribution of thermal anomalies - I’d want to rule that out first. He’s making conjecture so I’m not really faulting him per se but if there’s going to be a formal science out of it, that’s gotta happen. That and any other plausible forces … Eliminate the possibilities to back into the theoretical premise as the remaining explanation.