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@BornAgain13 GEFS actually was pretty solid for SVA here... lots of quality hits.. many more than amped members. There were like 3 individual members that skewed the mean imo.

This won’t be a popular opinion, but I prefer yesterday’s modeling that had mostly over-running from the less phased solutions. On the northern edge of those solutions we didn’t have the max QPF but excellent ratios where .7 QPF is 10” of powder. Plus, we could afford some north trends. Now we are playing with literal fire from these amped solutions taking the primary into Pitt. All of the Miller B downsides now apply…WAA can surge well ahead of the precip, a transfer directly over us can rob moisture, the dreaded dry slot, all of the Miller B failure routes. AND we’re still 72+ hours out! Ok, that’s my only Deb post for today! Let’s get a Hatteras transfer on the Euro!

I meant Gulf of Maine in this case.

Let is know what they say (or as much as you can), if you are allowed @Tucker1027

yells out to no one in particular: "whose damn kids are these anyway??"

10% luck, 20% skill, 15% concentrated power of will?

something is starting to feel a bit off about this storm...a little pit has formed in my stomach

Almost 5 feet in Sparta. Nice. Imagine if it verified, or even half of it. I mean, we are due for a correction on the overall low precipitation amounts in the past year, year and a half. What a time it would be if the deluge came in the form of winter snow. Probably not, but fun to ponder.

I can see it now.......Forecast 8-12 30%, Boom 10-15 20%, Bust 4-8 30%, Sadness 20%

More phasing means a stronger cyclone, the stronger the cyclone, the more latitude it gains to move poleward. It’s also plowing into an increasingly transient high. A big thing that’s changed the past few days is that our high isn’t as “locked in” as we thought. It’s scooting into a less and less favorable position as the storm progresses.

lol'd for real

Ok I’ll be driving during the Euro. Cant wait to see the comments when I park. However, if anyone can text me with updates, please do so. Would be greatly appreciated. # is 936-1212. Thanks!

lol I’m in Danville Va .

I’m here for whatever winter weather the good lord brings. I’ve got the generator, large battery banks and Starlink ready to rock n roll. Any snow will just be icing…uh snow on the cake. [emoji3]

Hard not to get focused on models but just need to focus on the now. Enjoy the snow and worry about model later.

That’s nuts. I don’t want five feet of snow in my neighborhood.

That's a good track on the mean. Doesn't erode the cold from flow off the ocean.

How many times I remember it holding on for dear life then caving the last day.

It’s the gfs bro. It’s not that great. Euro members pretty much had no south misses.

KFFC has played some cards... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1217 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026 GAZ001>009-011>016-019>024-220800- /O.NEW.KFFC.WS.A.0001.260124T0600Z-260126T1500Z/ Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns- Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-Floyd-Bartow-Cherokee- Forsyth-Hall-Banks- Including the cities of Dawsonville, Chatsworth, Blairsville, Gainesville, Calhoun, Dahlonega, Hiawassee, Dalton, Woodstock, Ellijay, Rome, Cleveland, Blue Ridge, LaFayette, Trenton, Jasper, Homer, Summerville, Fort Oglethorpe, Cumming, and Cartersville 1217 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to 4 inches and ice accumulations greater than one quarter inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast, and northwest Georgia. * WHEN...From late Friday night through Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Expect power outages and tree damage due to the ice. Travel could be impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Persons should consider delaying all travelSaturday and Sunday. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded.

You meant GOA.

I'd instantly disown you and consider a full ban. I HATE that with a passion.

If we could avoid the 700 & 850 mb lows going to Montreal like the 00z Euro show that would be nice. A very broad 6-10" for the whole region feels like the proper forecast at the moment.

That is uh, not super inspiring...

made me laugh......i mean really...the connotations here....