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Very accurate for ASH

Are you in a rest area stall on I84?

Overnight runs keep the uncertainty on impacts from the nor’easter. Euro is very slow and west. But gfs has come west as well. Good thing it’s not snow!

37.1° coldest so far Patchy frost in the valleys. Fogged out early at CON though.

Down in the 30's at work in Andreas, PA at the base of the Blue Mountain.

Finished with 0.07 yesterday and 0.18” storm total. 2.08” MTD. Looks extremely likely September will finish as yet another month well below normal in the rainfall department. 60.2 out this morning, still haven’t cracked the 50’s but should tonight

First 40s!

Stein gives it the big Meh. Minor nuisance and breezy.

53 here

This is a big , big boy. We’ve all got a beast about to blow!

46 for a low

We all agree with you and your dirty talk.

37 degrees this morning. First time it hit the 30’s this season.

Currently 49 with fog and drizzle in Wolf. Sent from my SM-S948U using Tapatalk

The 06Z GFS is broadly similar to the 00Z run, but there are several important differences in timing, intensity and the eventual track of the coastal storm. The first notable change is that the 06Z GFS develops and deepens the cyclone somewhat faster. By Friday morning, the 06Z run has the low near 997 mb, roughly a couple of millibars deeper than the 00Z run at the same valid time. Through Friday night and early Saturday, that difference gradually shrinks. By Saturday morning and afternoon, both runs are clustered near 991 to 993 mb, showing remarkably good agreement on the storm's peak intensity. The larger difference involves what happens after the cyclone reaches its mature stage. The 00Z GFS showed a clearer and more sustained westward retrograde, bringing the low back toward the New York and New Jersey coastline after it stalled offshore. The 06Z GFS still stalls the cyclone southeast of Long Island, but the westward motion is less pronounced. Instead, the system largely meanders near the 70°W longitude corridor while gradually weakening. The 06Z run also produces a particularly intense northwest-side precipitation band Saturday, placing Long Island, New York City, northern New Jersey and southern New England beneath a prolonged rain shield. Overall, the 06Z run does not represent a major departure from 00Z. Both depict a deep coastal cyclone that moves north, stalls south of New England, and slowly weakens. The principal uncertainty remains how far west the trapped circulation ultimately drifts.

Yep, I really hate the shorter daylight.

They're waiting for the GFS to decide what it wants to do. If the 12z GFS does what the 0z GFS did, then they'll change.

Not only has Fay come back from the dead, for now, at least, a small ULAC has positoned right over top of the system. Shear has dropped significantly. The TC is embedded in a rather dry environment. As the NHC noted in their discussion, this may prevent any significant intensification. Despite the less than ideal moisture environment, convection has managed to blossom this morning, however. Might we get a surprise? It has an established vortex and 36-48 hours to play with before shear reinvades.

No, the biggest question is if NHC will ever acknowledge this thing as potential ST or T transition and name it operationally if it does what some models are showing!

Thank you for shifting attention to the mid-Atlantic coming powerful high impact event--interrupting lives. I am in agreement and it's been on the modeling from the EC EFS for several days (earlier posts own phase etc). One note I think everyone with interest in GFS suite modeling vs EC suite should monitor for eventual outcomes. While nothing is yet slam-dunk, I do believe it is now apparent the GFS suite has been wayward east (as the CMC GEPS) for several days. For now, unless NHC can get us a something to look at via RAL, we're on our own. IMO. I think by 4PM today the weather sensitive groups along the mid-Atlantic-SNE should be looking for mitigating risks including alternate plans.

Notice how tight pres gradient is near the center and it wanes outside of that? That's tropical structure.