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I somehow missed posting about Sunday’s rainfall rough estimate at my home. I was alerted to it by Cocorahs and local TV wx. I very roughly estimate my home got 1”. That gets my total MTD through yesterday of ~8.85”.

Yeehah!

@bkviking @dmillz25 @Rjay Friendly reminder for September forecast temps

Welcome to Meteorological Fall! It will feel like it eventually. I promise.

Monday, September 7, 2026 8:25AM EDT The past week has been one of the most active weeks of stormy weather in the region for a very long time with multiple MCSs and derechos causing repeated instances of widespread tree damage and even some structural damage with the northwest flow around the ridge of high pressure that has been parked to our west-southwest. During the September 1st through September 6th period much of the region has received 8 to 14 inches of rain with most areas seeing peak wind gusts from severe thunderstorms during this period in the 70 to 85 mph range. Now we watch as a deepening trough drops into the region with causing the flow locally to back to southerly. With a surface low developing nearby over the region in response to this trough southeasterly surface flow will bring in mid 70sF dewpoints into the region. With Pwats also rising above 2.25 inches and CAPE in excess of 1,000 J/kg along with tall skinnier CAPE profiles. Storms that develop will be very efficient rain producers. With the strongest forcing for accent located over the region numerous storms will be able to develop and train over the same areas leading to a significant flash flooding threat given all of the recent rain. Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms will train over the region from late morning through this evening before we see a more uniform area of heavy rain over the region through the night tonight as the surface low strengthens and moves to the east over the northern Chesapeake. There will be a risk for a few tornadoes through the afternoon with embedded supercells given decent low-level shear near the surface low (effective SRH of up to 300 m2/s2) and decent enough 0-3km CAPE (>100 J/kg). When all is set and done by tomorrow morning most areas would have received an additional 3 to 6 inches of rain with localized areas that get under training bands in excess of 10 inches leading to major flooding. Always remember to turn around don’t drown. It’s not worth it! ...

-PNA!

We just need to get Chuck on board

www.StoweCountryHomes.com for rentals. Black Diamond BBQ and Trapps Bier Hall for food. Northwood Gallery in the village for a small town shop featuring Vermont artists.

The next ‘Climate Change is a myth’ publication will probably have its book signing in front of the Central Park ASOS. As always ……

"Boring?" Good to see you post elsewhere, not just always on the Weymouth MA...er, I mean New England forum!

Tiny sucker!

1010 mb for a c.p. is pushing it for TS-intensity objectively, but Edouard's small size means a tighter gradient hence stronger winds than you would normally expect. Andrew N of PR in Aug 1992 when it was struggling against against an upper level low has a 1015 mb pressure per recon and they still found near hurricane-force winds at FL!, so they kept it at a 40 kt TS, but one could argue it opened up as a trough for a time. You can see dry air entrainment is still an issue (SHIPS diagnoses 700-500 RH of 48% -- anything less than 60% is not good) w/ a sig waning of the deep convection in the last several hours. I am not sure why NHC does not explicitly mention dry air as a mitigating factor. Sure the shear is low and SSTs high, but you need all three solid/favorable for steady intensification or RI. We saw this w/ Lala. They kept saying "conditions generally favorable" repeatedly w/o going into the individual factors, such as dry air to the N and NW w/ a stable stratocumulus field. Yes, Lala intensified, but only slowly. My point is we can do better for details when diagnosing and pronosticaing a TC. Sometimes I think they hedge slightly to avoid anything that makes a system less of a threat on a perception level. I say, tell it like it is in detail objectivity based on the met science alone, no bias either way! And ppl (esp. wx weenies!) want such details I have found since it is not "one-size fits all" for TCs. That's how everyone learns! The finer points and details on wx phenomena that are not immediately apparent or well-known I find the most interesting.

I actually do think Thu is wet here. I just had to laugh at that run.

18z gfs Yeah…about 20 seconds

Wonder why these weren’t posted ?

Only one 90 degree day in August and even that was a very weak 91, how often has August not had any 90 degree days, Don?

Must have taken you a long time to find the one model that shows that, weak sauce man

August finished with a monthly mean temperature of 75.8° in New York City (Central Park). That was 0.3° below normal (1991-2020).

Let's see if it can build some convection tonight. Either way, the odds of anything remotely noteworthy coming of this is rapidly diminishing.

Was 1963-64 an el nino summer Chris? If so there are two el nino summers ahead of it, 1963 and 2002. This was an extremely front loaded summer, no really hot days after the middle of July. Summer ended after July 15th. Too much rain for it to be hot. The early part of July was like a less extreme version of 1966 but the pattern didn't hold because the dryness in 1966 lasted until the blockbuster winter of 1966-67 began. What do you think of the idea that a very wet last month of summer leads to a warm less snowy winter?

IR is really looking tough.

Yeah that’s the other thing. Bit of drier air.