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Well another awful night of modeling and time is running out

TORCH!

Euro keeps the northern stream in the way.

Euro went to the crapper. The northern stream is screwing us again.

they call the euro dr. no for a reason

But can already tell, Euro is a whole lot of nothing. For both.

You don't think he wasn't watching?

wtf is up with these skipping panels on the models lately. SV is particularly bad with the GFS. goes from like 210 to 252

WB 0Z EURO AI is closer for storm 1.

AH, you show up for the bad stuff

Geez not even close

50s right up to MHT

euro is a miss for jan 15

The Euro AI solution is closest to the GFS except it doesn't become a wrapped up bomb along the coast like the GFS and lacking the dynamics to draw in the colder air to produce frozen it is mainly rain right along the coast

Looks like the EuroAI likes the inland route for storm 2.

More GEFS support for Storm 2. WB 0Z GEFS.

See I told you the 18z gfs 1/9/26 would be 100% different at 0z! So, where is the cold high up north? Hmm I mean however a 983mb storm would manufacture its own cold air. Let’s go!!! Now back on the ground I need to see this at least for 6 runs on at least 3 different models before I do the snowy dance. It’s a shame the gfs is on an island by itself. I’m not buying it, but fun to look at and reminisce about winters of the past.

I stuck up for you bro this afternoon…but somebody deleted my post. Keep posting. Anybody with a brain…knows you’re not wishcasting. Great analysis all the time.

Can you stream that? If it happens of course.

GFS ensemble does not agree with the OP on the shortwave getting cutoff out west for the 2nd storm. Best snow means yet for that one.

Let’s do it

Warm tongue off the Atlantic.

at this point it is not possible to determine which model solution if any of them will be close to verifying - but there are vast differences in solutions now past 5 days - until a couple of them get to the point of basic agreement - confidence will increase probably in another 2 or 3 days. It was amazing though how far in advance they agreed on the current systems moving through especially the cold front sweeping across the nation scheduled to pass later Sunday - they had that solution for several days now.

The evolution of the GFS Thursday bomb is wild. The low initially comes up from the southwest and makes it nearly to State College. Then the brakes jam on, the low completely stops and proceeds to secondary due south to south central Virginia at which point it begins bombing, crashing from 997 to 983. I don't have to even look at the upper air maps to know that the low has to cut off and become stacked. It then jumps northeast to the tidewater area producing near blizzard conditions in DC/MD/DE with the low center over the northern most tip of Chesapeake Bay. So the cold air has completely encircled the low center as it brings the heavy snow up into south central / south eastern PA / then southern NJ, then northern NJ / NYC and onward to the northeast. Let's just say I did a little paraphrasing above, so I haven't described it as seen verbatim, but reasonably close. I can't think of a snowstorm that ever traversed the path the GFS is showing here. Instead of a secondary jumping to the coast, it jumps due south from our region and pops over south central Virginia before it slowly progresses NNE along the coast and even just inland over Maryland. Anyway, I took the time to do the PBP only because of the low's evolution and wild path it is shown to take. That caught my eye more than the snow, that is until accumulations around here had reached 12-20"...lol. Okay, that's it for me. (I hope you all know I don't believe it will likely pan out like this.) But it's just great to be tracking again, and even a potential monster later next week.

A weenie for a factual situation..lol.