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All of the new AI NOAA global model products are using Graphcast. Tropical Tidbits is displaying the deterministic GFS, called the AIGFS. There is also an AIGEFS, but it's not yet displayed here. The HGEFS is the hybrid GEFS, which combines the 31 members of the "regular" GEFS with the 31 members of the AIGEFS. Note that the AIGEFS has been shown to be somewhat underdispersive, so treat high probabilities with caution. https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-deploys-new-generation-of-ai-driven-global-weather-models

My Facebook memories keep reminding me of snow ahead of my wedding.

When I'm wrong I'll admit it. I was not expecting this 10-14 days ago for Christmas week. Was expecting a relaxation of the cold but nothing like this nearly coast to coast torch. Euro EPS did well sniffing it out. GFS was was not even close to reality. I was expecting a relaxation of the cold Christmas week but then a return to significantly colder between Christmas and New Year's. Not happening.

Yeah if this was a meh event you’d be heavily CAD and so would the valley . The signs are there

Snowpack held strong until today. Now it’s all washing away with the rain

Us tomorrow? https://x.com/MyWeatherViewX/status/2001686271148572954?s=20

I still have snow from early Dec melting in my rain gauge.

The RFW now has a PDS attached to it. I don’t know if that has ever been done around here.

Okay - let's have some fun. I'll go 48 at THV, 51 at MDT and 55 at LNS.

HIghs: Max for the month (so far) TEB: 54 New Brnswck: 53 EWR: 51 LGA: 51 TTN: 51 JFK: 50 ISP: 50 NYC: 49

Negativity about this winter seems to be rising. There seems to be a growing focus on the time snow does not fall. I choose to focus on the positive. I savor every snowfall, even the small ones. Sunday's snowfall provided some scenes that can be used for some of the custom Holiday e-cards will share with colleagues at work. One example:

horrid decision making. that makes all too much sense.

His scale…”flying no reindeer” what does that mean? Lol.

Here’s a good sign . Dendy is not CAD. He’s been rising . It’s coming

You seem to be obsessed with me.

The Drake ! https://x.com/danbury_wx/status/2001826392569450513?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Ok, I see your point, ha. I was thinking "big" in terms of QPF/snowfall totals, as opposed to big in terms of publicity or large scale synoptic events. That mid-November one was a solid 7-15" event, even in the valleys around the mountains, while 15-25" at elevation of 1-2" QPF. That was the type I was thinking of... but absolutely nothing of the widespread region wide news worthy storms. I get your point there. I guess what's more eye-opening is the local area wide like 7-12" of QPF since November 1 to now... while maintaining solidly below normal temperatures, if not very below normal temperatures (like -10F so far in December). To have 55-60" of snow depth contain 13" of water is pretty wild to me... because that pack started right around November 1st. So in roughly 6 weeks, that 3,000ft elevation AVERAGED just over 2" of QPF per week, most of it in the form of snow. That's damn impressive, but I guess that's also how you get to record numbers. I do wish we were able to sample individual event SWE/QPF in the higher elevations, as sometimes I do think I conceptually under-estimate just how much precip falls up there in these type of upslope patterns. Many of the November snows that left nearly 70" (measured in a controlled, single spot) on Mount Mansfield during the month felt like they were all there in terms of SWE. That wasn't upslope fluff. Sure there were some endings of fluff and some mixed in, but there were some real healthy dense snowfalls of rimed flakes, graupel, ect even at colder temperatures. I often look at the Alta Collins plot as my gold standard, and often note that for all the hype Utah gets for fluffy snow, they get their share of orographic QPF dumps where its like 12" on 1.50" water. Or even 24" snow on like 3.00" water. I think the local mountains had their share of that type of snow in November, which really boosted base depths and led to that amazing skiing... the type of cold but dense (rimed and graupel) driven snow that can sustain significant skier traffic and hold up fine. Overall, turning a new page after tomorrow as it'll be the first time in like 3 weeks the mountains have sniffed above freezing temperatures and rain. There was one brief rain event around Thanksgiving, that was then covered up almost immediately with more cold, but dense, upslope... and with that brief thaw, the mountains are running like a solid month, or more, of being on a snow and cold heater. Definitely a legendary start and one of yore.

The past two years have been the most windiest period in my lifetime. Seems like at one point every day there's wind gust or an extended all day period....

This seems pretty spot-on. Credit Paul( @ChescoWx) for this ripped from his FB.

All the extended products have been indicating a transition to a -EPO going forward into mid Jan, with a southward displaced TPV. We have seen this look pretty often in recent winters and it brings the cold, then all we need is some luck with a wave riding the thermal boundary. This pattern has produced several moderate snowstorms in our region. I'll take it.

Big fan of flash freezing with a coating of snow on top. Makes things very difficult to drive and walk, big fan!

Not a flake here.

It shows the NE MD snowhole so this one might be on to something and actually verify. I'd hit it.

Oh my god the warning text only calls for an inch of snow, that's embarrassing. If it's for the blowing snow and flash freeze they should've just done a WWA.

Off hour runs of late look good…on hour runs go the opposite way. Weird.