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Central Pa. Summer 2024
Itstrainingtime replied to mahantango#1's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Missed a cell at home by 1 mile.- 179 replies
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and if it has staying power or breaks down after 5-7 days.
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Threat of storm activity this afternoon has been diminished. At least inside the beltway. May be able to get a walk or a bike ride in.
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Been cloudy all day again in the northern neck, less sun than yesterday. It’s 82ish, don’t know how we reach 87.
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textbook on the EURO .. will be interesting to see how this evolves over time.
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In addition to Euro warm bias (though not nearly as bad as BoM was last year), folks shouldn't forget that model forecasted ONI needs to be reduced a good bit to best estimate where RONI will be.
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Winner. Sun is out.
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I watched it from Damascus FD, then along Day Ridge Place. Base was flat, some scud, no lowering or rotation.
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Although the -PDO and +AMO are the 2 main drivers right now and will continue to be, ENSO is going to become the 3rd driver within a few months. Everything continues to point to a very significant La Niña despite what the warm biased Euro may be showing. I’m becoming more confident this ends up being a moderate to strong Niña event
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Moderate shower, no thunder or wind, over the postage stamp. Stay well and dry everyone., as always …
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Thanks Gene and glad to see that all is well!
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From pro met 57 from your area, he not surprisingly doesn't buy the GFS as it is on its own of the ops just like has been the case quite often: "Here's a comparison of the 12Z GFS, Canadian, and Euro valid in 10 days, which is 12Z June 16. Which one is not like the others? This is happening in EVERY basin since the last GFS change (I'm not calling it an "upgrade")." http://wxman57.com/images/12ZModels.JPG
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Should see a line of rain and storms get into far western CT. Nothing will be crazy today
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Yeah DVN finally woke up and issued a wind advisory. They stopped it west of here though even though we are also getting 45 mph gusts. Lots of blowing dust out in the open country, which surprised me given the recent rains.
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Rhode Island has become the rain Capital of New England
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Op. GFS brings first heat wave June 16 - 22. GEFS not interested.
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Pollen increasing rapidly. 1” last hour.
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Tornado confirmed very near me in Columbia yesterday.
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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2024 Obs/Discussion
Hurricane Agnes replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
Ended up with 0.58" between last night and early this morning (0.49" _ 0.09"). Watches are up! Currently an overcast and icky 82 with dp 72. -
Basically from Montgomery/Fairfax/PW eastward.
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Heh... helluva signal materializing now in the operational compendium. They're all over 590 non-hydrostats spanning over the eastern mid latitude continent beyond D7. 588 dm canonical big dawg is broad and expansive and N of our latitude. Heights approaching 596 in anticyclonic axis over WV ... Wouldn't concern too much with details ( obviously ) at this range, if the gist of that scaffolding is correct, that's going mean the biggest heat wave we've seen up here in New England in some years - at least per my own recollection.
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I have not posted in some time. Not much weather going on. Other than .05" of rain yesterday morning we have not had any rain since May 27th. Pollen is coating everything. We have also not had even one clap of thunder this season. Hopefully the showers/storms will hold together long enough to give us some rain this evening. Things are getting very dry. On a totally different subject, I have missed a northward facing webcam on the summit of Mt Washington. I called them last winter and told them I would give them a donation to buy a new cam. To do so they had to build an outside enclosure and also put in a new window. So it was a pretty big job. Others chipped in too. The camera is now live. https://mountwashington.org/weather-cams/north-view/
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STW posted per NOAA radio.
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