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Really thought we’d see more of the bigger totals eventually move this way. And I am still nervous about those minimas showing up on all the models. But, snow is snow. Let’s see where it ends up

I’m not. Definitely moving the wrong direction. Need it to trend back south.

WB 6Z GEFS. Still about 50% chance for area wide event; higher SE

6z GEFS

EB 6Z GEFS compared to OZ

Here are the latest models. 7 of them. All of them in agreement about the ULL sliding moisture. Vary degrees of intensity. and then the GFS with the coastal lol

Still ok on the mean

Traditionally, this is where you would want the models losing the storm. Not sure how well we can forecast the upstream kicker yet. The primary, on the other hand, really looks like it winds up wayyyy too far into the deep south. Still not buying it. By 12z tomorrow, we can either throw in the towel or get ready to throw snow.

I just really wanted to see the snow piles and the chaos that ensued with how much snow is around but what are ya gonna do

You shouldn't be surprised.

Excellent trends on the 06z NAM. The upper levels show digging into the Missouri bootheel and NE Arkansas at 75 where it was east of the Mississippi at 0z. 84 land shows the beginnings of a lee side low behind the main one which is 250 miles ENE off the space coast (lol). RGEM holds serve mostly. It's been a minute since looking but the surface pressure gradient seemed slightly less positive tilt and overall org a bit smudgier. Cold might be a little punchier if the 500mb level translates.

That southern line of the cutoff continues to move north though.

RRFS A , still snowing at the end of this.

Seeing all that snow just next door south of us makes me think we're definitely still in the game. Like PSU said, we just want that to trend north at game time. If that snow was to the east of us instead of south, this thing is DOA.

If 06z Euro brings it NW, you're going to see the mother of all Bi-Polar mood swings on here.

BTW, 0Z euro kept most at or below freezing until Feb 7.

Seeing that snowhole from DC to NYC while VA and NC get a blizzard is heartbreaking though. Thats how we roll here.

Pretty dang consistent all things considered

GFS folded. Shocker. I think its time to put this one to bed for areas along I-95. Sorry.

-6 degrees…yep it’s cold. One thing about this snow, my yard looks just as good as my neighbors yard.

Very true. I need sleep lol

5 run trend of GFS

Not many times we get to argue over 15-30” vs 35-40” clown maps within 3 days of a storm

Models are in pretty good agreement with regards to the ULL energy diving a precip maxima from ETN down into SC/NC. The main question continues to be the coastal. ON euro/gfs/nam our starting ratios are 15:1 and peak at 24:1 toward the end of the event. It won't take much qpf at all. .5 qpf at 15:1 is 7.5"