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Oxford CT washed away again?

We just an FB update from Chester’s municipal government noting 76% of the residences are out of power; they are calling in back up road/tree and power crews.

AWOS is pretty bad…especially when Tds start getting up near 70°. Then it seems like they start going up 2° for every 1° reality as they get oversaturated. It gets easy to pick out the ASOS and AWOS stations in IA when they get one of their big summer corn field dewpoint pooling events. ASOS ends up 25-27C and then AWOS is in that 31-32C area. It’s funny seeing 92/89 obs in the afternoon. I remember that JFK day and that it was a high dew day overall. Lots of 77-79 readings and spotty 80+ in the late afternoon down the coast of NJ/DE. JFK was in line with 77-78 most of the day and then had a couple of hours get into the low 80s…82 and 84 on the hourlies IIRC. The temp went down briefly before a slight rebound before evening. There were some TCu around too with the breezy S flow off the water. Maybe a little evap cooling putting a little extra moisture in the air? Not sure. But I’ve seen spikes like that from manned stations pre-ASOS days too with temp recovery after showers/storms.

It's a legit summer nor'easter. Sfc low not that strong, but the pres gradient N of it is quite good for July. Duration coupled w/ sig higher PWATs than other times of the year, and voila!

Widespread soaker? Who said that? Doesn't look all that meaningful north of the pike.

HRRR suggests it could be more than just those regions. I'm just talking decent tstms, not svr.

Enjoy it man. Happy for you.

Thanks for the feedback/input. Climate hype is still rife on social media, and if you look at a lot of MSM news and wx segments, they are still pushing the gloom and doom narrative often. Also, even w/ politics shifted this country, look at a lot of rest of the world and organizations like the UN and WEF. The end of the word narrative from AGW is alive and well still. And going one step further, this is case of "bad news sells," which is apolitical, so that's what drives it a lot. The boogie man changes over time, but its is always there out to get us. In the 70s, it was pollution in general and the ice age coming, in the 80s, it was the ozone layer and acid rain, and by the 90s it switched to climate change and has not looked back. The deniliasm part is merely subset of any problem that exists and is hype or over-promoted. Par for the course. I don't like denialism as a term, as much as I don't like blindly embracing a narrative or ideology. That's a false dichotomy and suggests a lack of critical thinking. As w/ many things, the truth often lies in between. Not exactly 50-50 w/ every issue either, and things are often a lot more complex than they seem w/ no easy answers as well.

Great video of the severe storms moving in yesterday from a boat in New York Harbor.

NYC/ NJ South special

Wagons def south. Convection will rob alot of the moisture . Baroclinic processes basically nil in summer. Folks always fall for these widespread soakers in summer and then get upset with .50

You mean w and sw CT

Looks like DCA had a low of 84. Canaan nwr had a low of 58. Probably felt cold in comparison.

Pivotal shows a max of 7.87". Summer NAW'easter!

Ensembles are showing a lot of rain as the heat breaks. Would not be surprised to see it go from drought conditions to flooding in a hurry.

It’s been hot and humid in northern PA. Had storms move through near midnight that were prolific lightning producers. Good old fashioned storm borne of heat and humidity. You could tell the whole atmosphere was ready to go and has reset back to being unstable overnight.

This time stations like Newark and Harrison had to reach 105°-106° for NYC to finally reach 100°. LGA also made it to 104°. This suggests that NYC would have probably been at least 104° if the ASOS hadn’t become overgrown by the trees since the 1990s. This matches the past times our area experienced 103°+ heat before the tree growth near the castle became an issue. Monthly Data for July 2026 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ HARRISON COOP 106 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 105 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 104 NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 103 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 102 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 102 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 102 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 101 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 101 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 101 NY CENTERPORT COOP 101 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 101 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 100

I guess my question for you is who even has climate change as the preferred narrative anymore? The White House thinks it’s a hoax, all of “mainstream media” have had their owners replaced with people who are at the bare minimum sympathetic to climate denialism, and in general the political zeitgeist has moved on. If anything, the current political climate has denialism as the ideology it would push. Of course, I agree that there are social media accounts trying to hype up all of us dying but they are doing that for their own fame and any commentary on climate change is secondary to their own profit.

Bone dry at Pit 2. Hopefuilly it'll be nice up there for family visiting next weekend.

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 417 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026 Day 2 Valid 12Z Sun Jul 05 2026 - 12Z Mon Jul 06 2026 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... An east-west orientated front boundary will be sprawled across the Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic region during this period. Moderate instability combined with PW values of 2+ inches are expected to overlap near the frontal boundary to produce periods of heavy rainfall. This area historically is more prone to flash flooding due to terrain influences and more sensitive hydrologic schemes thus maintaining the Slight Risk for excessive rainfall for this part of the region. Backbuilding and training of thunderstorms may be possible. Scattered flash flood concerns exist over the central Mid- Atlantic with an increasing risk of heavy convection over portions of Pennsylvania down through the Washington DC- Baltimore- Philadelphia corridor. A broad Marginal Risk area spans from eastern Oklahoma/Kansas eastward to the Mid- Atlantic/southern portions of the Northeast.

Probably good thing we dont have shear near 40 kts .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A highly impactful Independence Day lies ahead today with extreme heat and an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms. Anomalous heat and humidity remain a fixture across the area. Based on the latest 07Z/3 AM observational data, temperatures generally range from the mid 70s to mid 80s. This is accompanied by dew points in the 70s which is yielding overnight heat indices between 85 to 95 degrees. Skies remain mostly clear although there is still residual convective debris drifting southward from central Pennsylvania. Before convection enters the picture, it will be another day of record warmth across the Mid-Atlantic region. Using 850-mb temperatures as a proxy, forecast readings should be around 22-23C which dry adiabatic mixing favors another 100 degree day. Adding continued tropical moisture in place will support heat indices pushing into the 105 to 110 degree range. Extreme Heat Warnings are in effect from 10 AM until 9 PM for areas east of the Blue Ridge. Given an uptick in forecast heat indices, have upgraded to warnings over north-central Maryland down across the eastern West Virginia Panhandle into portions of the Shenandoah Valley. Otherwise, outside of mountain locations, Heat Advisories will be in effect until 8 PM this evening. Unlike previous days which were free of convection, a collapsing ridge will lift the subsidence that has persisted the last few days. Although mid/upper heights remain anomalous in nature, forcing from an approaching shortwave will aid in more widespread showers and thunderstorms. One unique aspect to the thermodynamic environment is an elevated mixed layer (EML) which has shown up in the last 4 IAD sounding profiles. Within this layer around 750-600 mb, lapse rates continue to run between 8-9 C/km which is unusually steep for this area. This is contributing to some impressively large amounts of instability, generally in the 3,000 to 4,000 J/kg. Within the deeply mixed boundary layer, substantial downdraft CAPE (DCAPE) is evident with values around 1,300 to 1,700 J/kg. Although vertical shear is only around 20 to 25 knots, any storms able to tap into the robust instability will be capable of damaging winds. Some of this could be locally destructive with gusts up to 60 to 75 mph. With all of the above in mind, and ample high-resolution model support, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded areas east of the Blue Ridge to an Enhanced Risk today. This upgrade would support a more widespread footprint of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Looking a bit more closely at today`s setup, convective initiation likely will be more mesoscale in nature. This would include the climatological lee-side trough, bay and river breezes, as well as any remnant outflows from earlier convection. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible given so much instability in the troposphere. The primary signal east of the Blue Ridge is in the 3-9 PM timeframe, slightly earlier to the west. Damaging to locally destructive winds are the main threat, with any chance for large hail being minimal given the summertime freezing levels. Although the convective signal is strongest during the afternoon to early evening hours, residual storms could easily impact those with outdoor plans for fireworks this evening. Continue to check back at weather.gov/lwx or follow the National Weather Service - Baltimore/Washington social media accounts for the latest.

So much for his Stein and a couple showers lolz

Need to get some of that up here. This will hurt. Congrats Ditty on 5+

Holy *bleep* just woke up to 80.6 degrees. It never got below 80 last night!

maybe 6-12" for a swath? NYC SW CT?