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Just saw on X they are in flight

Not in the amped camp.

https://x.com/JeremyDeHartWX

They did Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Yes

12z NAM....Later phase creates a flatter second wave...good trend. In general, the first wave was flatter as well. Precip shield w/ the first wave was about 6 counties south....barely got to the Ohio River Valley. With the second wave phasing later, that opens the window for the second slp to come in flatter. It would have been fun to see the rest of that run......out to say 150.

NAM

WB 0Z 12K NAM at hr 84

If we’re being honest with ourselves, the NAM is the solution we should all hope for.

This reminds me so much of those winters where you just expected positive things to happen.

Nam lays down almost 8 inches with a more to come, wow

The NAM wants to phase better, but is also pressing the PV in a good bit more which suppresses things through at least hour 84… doesn’t mean much unless the global models have the same trend.

Looks like the sleet/mix line is in approximately the same area as it was at 18Z at the same time(s)?

Didn't they send hurricane hunters out somewhere to take measurements? Or has that not happened yet

Every NAM run is like a wild adventure because it's so different from the previous run.

Precip seems to have “smoothed” out from 18z. Mix line at VA/NC border. Sleet breaking out down the spine of the apps into NE GA.

Not sure what to make of the NAM

NAM would unload about 12hrs after the run ended

Yea I see several offsetting thing. Less amped phases STJ wave more a stronger NS vort. Slightly less confluence to our north but less ridging to our south and a slightly flatter flow heading in. There is more than one variable. Can’t make definitive conclusions based on what one variable does.

1041 HP over NY is big help. We get hammered up front.

(remote learning) CT too-they outlawed it-thank god

FWiW (and probably not much) 00z NAM

Coffee, which is fairly stupid of me, but I want it. Contemplating a wee glass of bourbon alongside.