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I’m just to this one at 105 and that’s 15 hours at 0.5-.75” per hour

Good post.

00z GFS from the MA thread

I’m driving to Atlantic City 110% if this pans out!

CMC might look east could be wrong.

00z vs. 18z GFS (grain of salt, amateur analysis) confluence in 50/50 region trended weaker but what was far more impactful was the speed of the kicker (faster) and the decreased amplitude of ridging preceding the s/w.

Absolutely, great to see 2 good runs in a row by the GFS.

CMC is going to be different than its 12z run. So far can't make anything declarative but I think itll be somewhat worse with where the surface low is created, amplified, and captured. No idea if it'll be bad or still work out thanks to a H5 pass.

The CMC is going to be nothing like the GFS

This has looked like shit for days south of the pike.

a "Strong System" is great and all, but the problem is once its super closed off like that, its tough to get latitude unless the tilt of the whole longwave it resides in is negative, even then odds are by the time it gets north its occluded Even so, its hard to look at that 500mb chart and not like where we are at the moment. We not far off from a historic storm We're also not far off from a complete whiff too, but ya know lol

Road trip to cape may or ocean city?

At this point i'll take whatever we can get but it would kind of stink to be fringed while places to the south get 2 feet.

come on down and witness the existential meltdown of half the locals. while the other half throw booze heavy blizzard parties.

GFS AI

Jesus talk about a chase opportunity in our backyard. Inland a bit in southern DE verbatim? Om, yessir.

I think if the upper level is like gfs the upside is higher for more of the area.. But it is the gfs

Impressively consistent with 18z, but why can't I buy it

No. We need the Euro and another day. The issue with a setup like this is that if everything shifts 100 miles east its game over, we are relying on a coastal low bombing out at the perfect time thanks to specific placement of upper level features. This isn't a setup I'd bank on happening till even inside 36 hours.

So does OC Maryland a colossal hit.

Well the GFS certainly isn't backing down. 1-2 feet south of Philly, 6-12" up to the Lehigh Valley. Not really buying it right now but it's nice to at least have a shred of hope remaining.

00z GFS still a big hit!

Just get something else to go towards it, I'm sure you know what.

At least it didn’t turn to total crap. Gfs gives something to work with and AIgfs definite improvement.