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Wait are you referring to the bird-like shape, or something dirty, because I al a little confused.

Down to 33 and rain.

My son is at Radford. It’s coming down. He’s drunk at a frat party. Bastard.

Prediction? PAIN

Had a few sprinkles. Its 41.

Looking at traffic cams, snowing in Blacksburg and Beckley WV, draw a line between the two for forward progress of the snow. Currently 32.0.26.7 here and waiting.

What an impressive distribution. What’s your prediction for inches?.

Correct. As long as the Northern stream continues to zip across CONUS, it doesn’t have the chance to connect with southern stream and phase. Until this changes, we will undoubtedly have cold air but almost nothing to show for it

Yep. You are in the sweet spot. Stafford County FTW. In early December.. unbelievable

Mostly sleet here Winston by Wake campus .

Don't do it Ravens. Seriously. Low hanging fruit. Anyway, decent

On/off mixed sleet/rain. Nothing measurable in the bucket so far. 44F at 10:35pm.

GFS looks about an inch or two along and north of EZF up to along and south of 50

Very close, yes! There can be shifts in the latitudinal alignment of the 700-500mb FGEN and you can tell positioning potential based on advection regime by assessing the wind field and height contours. Notice across MD/NoVA, the winds are parallel to the height field with a touch more perpendicular trait further south. This is a relatively zonal scheme, however the passage of the mid-level disturbance allows for a bit of amplitude downstream of the mean trough as it migrates eastward. That's why as the storm materializes and move east-northeast, there's a bit of a southwest to northeast slope of the QPF field as we head into morning with a bit more latitudinal gain in the FGEN placement. It comes down to that minor downstream amplification still positioned within the RER of the retreating upper jet over the Northeast. The static image you provided would make it SEEM like that would be the case, but the evolution of the synoptic pattern will allow for just enough general amplitude to have things shift up into our hoods to give us some fun. Fluid dynamics is a treat, isn't it?

36/24 mostly cloudy

One thing to remember: this week was supposed to be a torch.

Canceled for the superstorm?

You’re fine.

And it will improve a tad more come Go Time!

29.5/17.3 here in 21057

When I was an undergraduate there in the mid 90s, they canceled classes for the second time ever in the history of UVA from 1819. I wonder how many times they have canceled since then?

Got a halftime walk in. You know it’s cold when condensation from your breath is freezing on your face. -3.6° and -14.6 WC with a pesky light wind. It’s -11 to my north where there is no wind.

Yeah, this is where I can admit that this is way beyond my pay grade and that real mets are on a whole nother level thats basically magic. Though from trying to piece together what I can understand and the SPC analysis page you're basically saying that the primary max stripe is driven by the 700-500mb FGEN (as it overlaps with DGZ better) and strong 850mb FGEN and this setups somewhere in Central VA. Meanwhile NOVA and the like are displaced from the higher level FGEN and will use the 850mb instead. While I don't understand the math or physics behind it should I generally assume the 700-500 FGEN will just progress along with the wind barbs (which does seem to place it oddly northward to even fringe me?) Oh, and while I'm annoying you I'm targeting around 3:30 start of my Jebwalk lmk if that checks out.

33/21 at 10:30 (Haymarket)

I said it a couple of months ago, but I still think the Reaper will make a few appearances this season.