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  2. brooklynwx99
    so the CFS basically shoves the eastern Canadian ridge into the Davis Strait, lol it's an unprecedented super Nino but I'll believe that when I see it
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Definitely looks like a cold pool developing behind this line. Woo storms for everyone today?
  4. IrishRob17
    Seems like a watch is coming soon: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1897.html
  5. Kmlwx
    Updated Day 2 looks angled too far south for many of us. But these things can be VERY finicky to predict (case in point - June 2012). And if you watch the June 29, 2012 radar loop, that sort of was angled more SE but drove east for us.
  6. A-L-E-K
    lots of guidance selling an early morning long track MCS
  7. pen_artist
    Day 2 Enhanced introduced. The way it is outlooked, has the making of a long term wind event, possible derecho.
  8. Birds~69
    Stuff out by State college is forming...
  9. cptcatz
    And just like that GFS goes poof for everything. As Green Day once said, wake me up when El nino ends.
  10. LakePaste25
    I don’t believe it. I think there could be some opportunities but otherwise it’s way overdone.
  11. aldie 22
    eat reeses cups until you explode
  12. GaWx
    If so, Feb would seem to be the best opportunity per models and analogs with a mild Dec and in between Jan.
  13. Interstate
    Go to the Arcade, Reese's cupfusion or hide in a booth... when the storms pass, do to the first aid near the arcade and get for you free passes.
  14. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  15. WxUSAF
    @mappywhat do we do at Hershey park during severe storms? Lol
  16. Jersey Andrew
    Does the cold model forecast for this winter jive in any way with Super El Niño? Are there reasons to believe this winter season goes against the grain and produces widespread cold and snow?
  17. SACRUS
    Cleared out after clouds from 12:00 and now up to 88 / DP 68
  18. yoda
    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 555 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 115 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland Northern Virginia Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 115 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will spread southeastward across the watch area through the afternoon and early evening. Hot and humid conditions will combine with favorable winds aloft for a risk of damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 85 miles west southwest of Martinsburg WV to 40 miles east northeast of Baltimore MD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
  19. MJO812
    I always watch his videos. Very knowledgeable https://youtu.be/DrAPIw8i0iA?is=e1-O1Q_oXIphw5js
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    That cold in the high plains is NOT stock El Niño.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Decent velocities on that line approaching Garrett County. Might be an overperformer today west of I-95 into the mountains.
  22. yoda
    Watch up till 9pm for entire LWX CWA except St. Mary's
  23. Stormlover74
    Have they changed the criteria for a heat advisory? I noticed it says 2 consecutive days of real feel of 95-99 is all it takes now. The past 2 days have been hot but not really where I would've expected to be under an advisory
  24. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  25. yoda
    Or now... watch coming soon https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1896.png Mesoscale Discussion 1896 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Areas affected...the Maryland and West Virginia Panhandles into the Delmarva Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 101659Z - 101900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging winds is expected to increase this afternoon, likely requiring a severe thunderstorm watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Daytime heating combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s has contributed to a moderately unstable air mass as of early afternoon with steepening low-level lapse rates and MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Upstream convection over southwest PA is gradually developing a tighter leading-edge reflectivity gradient and more robust trailing stratiform region, suggestive of an organizing cold pool. Current thinking is that the evolving convective system will further intensify as it continues east-southeast and encounters an increasingly unstable environment across the discussion area. The current KPBZ VWP is sampling strengthening west-northwest flow above 2 km AGL, which will likely aid in further cold pool organization. These factors will lead to an increasing threat for damaging wind gusts across the area this afternoon, likely requiring the issuance of a severe thunderstorm watch. ..Mead/Hart.. 08/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX... LAT...LON 39117919 39457922 39687831 39607644 39657577 39167542 38627575 38367675 38547793 38717879 38877919 39117919 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
  26. weatherwiz
    Just makes it easier to get inside once you start getting that "bad" feeling
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