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Still don't understand. 31 time lagged members that come out 18z show up on 23z output?

I had the option to take the day off with the bliz warning flying so I did. Just stayed inside and let it do its thing - didn't venture out to clear the snow until it was over basically (my M.O.). It was certainly a lot less than I expected. Was thinking Jan '99 but even bigger tbh. In the end I got 11" on top of the 6" otg. I remember clearing my walks and thinking that really, any time Marshall has 17" of snow otg that's not bad. Had a nice drift at my rear door due to the serious NE winds (hard to do in the old section of city scape where I was). I so wanted to experience everything immobilized like in '78 and still do, but with advances in the alert system and vehicles I doubt that's even possible anymore.

Go to this link, https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm-weather-elements then click the parameter you're curious about. If the field has a 'CONUS' option, click it. You'll get a table that specifies model weights. Despite the description, I still can't make sense of the NBM snowfall maps that correspond to their model weights. Something else seems missing... The map seems too high and I don't see much that supports those values b/n the SREFs, EPS, GEFS, and GFS.

Man .. Wolfie is just ripping heads off chickens tonight

Just made it to our cabin! Little bit of snow up here from earlier this week! We have a great view of do downtown Gatlinburg and are walking distance to over Gatlinburg! Just cracked a Michelob ultra after a long ride with our two and four year old! Cheers! .

So a heated black shingle roof and a scrapped driven on with salt on tires driveway is melted. Call me surprised

Good to hear bro. Our sidewalks and driveways at my school are a mess too…usually it melts off much more quickly, but hasn’t due to the very cold temps. That’s all.

So it looks like both the ai gfs and ai euro agree on a light to moderate event overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Having both AI’s in agreement is good.

Ride it like a boar.

yeah those time lagged members are skewing it. But good luck with Kevin's 6-10 EOR.

If it happens, I’ll have to find someone to blame. Probably @BooneWX

It's got some work for me to get to an A+ lol. I'm at a C+ right now, though I could probably see this getting into a A- with your benchmarks.

Con: it’s the GFS

NWP output from both the National Center of Environmental Prediction’s (NCEPs) operational job stream and several non-American NWP weather sources. The NBM ingests and bias corrects a host of weather elements and determines the optimum weights to be assigned to each model when generating a final blended forecast. Simply put, the NBM takes whatever models are available from 31 different model systems (for rainfall forecasts a total of 171 inputs) and combines the information into a single forecast. Intense research into model performance over time has given today’s meteorologists a baseline of known model biases. Verification of the NBM output has shown that this methodology consistently outperforms individual model runs over time leading to a more accurate and consistent dataset of available

Wolfie will be happy to know my street is completely snow packed. Feels like a dirt road in Hubbardston.

That doesn't seem to be the case here.

I will take it

Lol…not here. Go find a storm to Debbie.

I wasn't concerned with power outages because of the powder but the winds are concerning. I get insane sw winds but not so much northern winds. Still a little nervous with the coldest temps in a good while.

It says it outperforms all other models. I am riding this bitch all night

31 models input every hour damn

LOL. It was 22 here. Ocean means nothing.

Yea, that was wrong, too.

Maybe it's weighted heavily from previous runs and on the euro? I honestly don't know why it has that output.

Well I haven’t…we have snow/Icey spots all over the sidewalks at my school that haven’t budged in the sun all week. So maybe it’s different out by the ocean there…so I’ll give you that.