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Canadian is really the only 12z model that gets a prolonged period of sleet north of I-95. Euro and UKMET push it a little past Philly but it’s when the bulk of the precip is already done.

Even if you cut the zr QPF in half for sleet, it’s bad .

12z eps maybe a hair wetter be 6z. Pretty consistent through hr 108

If you didn't have that desire to sit next to Justin Timberlake at an awards show every February then you'd be home for a storm once in a while.

I'd go 6-10 or 8-12

Go to Best Buy and buy a StarLink! I went and got one yesterday. That way we can still whine.

I’d rather have a sleet storm than ice but I obviously don’t get a say in the matter. If I did, we’d get the 15” of snow the models were showing a couple days ago.

Based upon the snow climo around here, the Euro map looks pretty close to what I think will happen. NW of DC get 20+, my yard gets 12-14 with rime on top. I think high end we bump those totals up to 6 inches, low end we take 6 away and add a lot more sleet. I think higher end is more likely, but we'll probably end up close to the middle. Considering we haven't had an event like this in 10 years, just book it.

Looks like 10-12” from 1am to 1pm Sunday

Looks like mixing will be close to DCA and probably minimal?

Just to make you feel a little more depressed!

exactly, the WAA is insane and i find it hard to believe you guys do without sig snowfall. it's just so cold going in and the 700mb FGEN will be off the charts

Pretty wild to see FRAM numbers that high. You can assume if we're getting 1.5ish QPF, that 1 inch is in the form of ZR and the rest sleet. Which means maybe an inch to 2 of sleet and an inch of ice on top. Pretty wild and devastating. If that were to happen, would likely be up there on the top 5 Icestorms of all time around northern Ga/N SC/NC.

It is Wednesday and this thing is trending slower. I think the main callout here should be what was in the GSP's WSW re: ICE. And be prepared for that scenario. I don't have enough fingers to count how many times things have gone north or south 3-4 days out. We all went through Helene and that 10000% taught me to never have my guard down and to be prepared for anything no matter what.

12Z Euro Total QPF storm

A quarter inch of ZR, a little sleet, and 10+ inches of snow, followed by absolute frigid temperatures for a week would be an absolute mess. Schools would not open until Thursday at earliest.

Perfect, board-wide MECS that we have to hold for 3 days… what could go wrong?

South Va and N NC is a total catastrophe with close to 2 inches of ice accretion in low 20s ambient conditions.

Thanks for this! You've been super helpful with stuff over the years i really appreciate it. 50-80% probs of 12"+ across SNE on the NBM lol

Some of that is tonight too

6-18z Sunday is a beatdown

Yea I mean I’m not going to argue his points, they’re valid. I’ve posted a couple times about his point #2 (western ridge alignment) the last couple days, why not air the skepticism he had when some guidance had this buried in the Carolinas as recently as yesterday at 12z? With that said, there’s only so much this storm is going to punch up into that cold air mass. It’s still fairly progressive in nature. Any PA mixing issues would likely be relegated to mainly sleet and not after a pretty large amount of snowfall. That strong of CAD isn’t going to get dislodged below 850mb by this. MDT is in the low teens for most of this event.

Sorry but you guys have had your share over the past few years. The far NW crew is beyond overdue. It will still be an epic storm for the entire board.

Sure, why not

Euro has it starting early Sunday morning with the heaviest during the day.