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Records: Highs: EWR: 103 (2010) NYC: 103 (2010) LGA: 103 (2010) JFK: 101 (2010) New Brnswck: 103 (1999) Lows: EWR: 54 (1979) NYC: 53 (1979) LGA: 56 (1979) JFK: 56 (1979) New Brnswck: 48 (1979) Historical: 1879: Boston, MA recorded its lowest temperature of 50 °F for the month of July. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1893 - A violent tornado killed 71 persons on its forty-mile track across northwestern Iowa. Forty-nine persons were killed around Pomeroy, where eighty percent of the buildings were destroyed, with most leveled to the ground. Photos showed most of the town without a wall or tree left standing. (The Weather Channel) 1928: A seven-inch hailstone weighing 1.5 pounds fell in Potter Nebraska. With a circumference of 17 inches, this appeared to be the largest hailstone in the world at that time. 1928 - A hailstorm at Potter, NE, produced a stone which was 5.5 inches in diameter, and seventeen inches in circumference, weighing a pound and a half. (David Ludlum) 1936: The temperature at Moorhead, MN, soared to 114 °F to establish a new state record and the temperature at Steel, ND, soared to 121 °F to establish a new state record (Ref. Lowest and Highest Temperatures for the 50 States) 1972: Unusually strong Canadian high pressure pushed a cold front into the central Gulf of Mexico bringing record chill to the central states. Richland Center, WI and St. Louis, MO set July record lows of 38° and 51° respectively. Other daily records: Lansing, MI: 39°, Detroit, MI: 42°, Columbus, OH: 43°, Toledo, OH: 43°, Dayton, OH: 44°, Springfield, MO: 44°, Peoria, IL: 48°, Springfield, IL: 48°,Lexington, KY: 49 °F. (Ref. Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link) 1977: RIC The Highest temperature ever recorded for July was 105 °F which has occurred on two other dates. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records - KRIC) 1978: Severe thunderstorms developed over eastern South Dakota during the afternoon and moved quickly to the northeast. Winds of up to 80 mph were reported and hail as big as baseballs pounded some areas. A tornado produced widespread damage to crops and personal property across Turner and Lincoln counties. Total property and crop damage from the storms was near $20 million dollars.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1982: A severe thunderstorm which produced extremely high winds pummeled Sioux Falls, SD. The thunderstorm produced winds of 125 mph which swept across the city causing damage in a path ten blocks wide and three miles long. The National Weather Service office at the airport reported a gust of 82 mph. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1983: Cool high pressure settled over the Great Lakes bringing record lows. The 41° at Grand Rapids, MI is the lowest ever recorded during the month of July. Chicago, IL set a daily record low with 46° and the low of 45° the next morning set the record low for July. Other daily record lows included: Ste. St. Marie, MI: 36°, Muskegon, MI: 41° and La Crosse, WI: 48°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1985 - Lightning struck a large transformer in Salt Lake County sending a 200 foot fireball into the air and blacking out almost the entire state for up to five hours. (The Weather Channel) 1986 - Thunderstorm rains during the mid morning hours, and again during the evening, produced major flash-flooding at Leavenworth, KS. The official rainfall total was 10.37 inches, but unofficial totals exceeded twelve inches. At nearby Kansas City, the rainfall total of 5.08 inches was a daily record for July. (Storm Data) 1987 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in twenty-one states east of the Rockies, with severe weather reported in Kentucky and Indiana for the second day in a row. A thunderstorm produced more than five inches of rain in one hour near Reynolds, IL. Rochester, NY, was soaked with 3.25 inches, a record 24 hour total for the month of July. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thirty-six cities in the north central and northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 98 degrees at International Falls, MN, and 101 degrees at Flint, MI, equalled all-time records. Highs of 96 degrees at Muskegon, MI, and 97 degrees at Buffalo, NY, were records for July. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Unseasonably hot weather prevailed in the southwestern U.S. Ten cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Las Vegas, NV, with a reading of 115 degrees. Hanksville, UT, reached 112 degrees, Bullhead City, AZ, hit 120 degrees, and Death Valley, CA, soared to 126 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1996: The hottest July temperature ever recorded in Oklahoma City, OK is 110°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1999 : Record heat occurred across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Record highs for the date included: Washington, DC: 103°, Raleigh-Durham, NC: 102°, Newark, NJ: 102°, Harrisburg, PA: 102°, Baltimore, MD: 101°, NYC-Central Park, NY: 101°, NYC-LaGuardia, NY: 101°, Salisbury, MD: 100°, Roanoke, VA: 100°, Allentown, PA: 100°, Reading, PA: 100°, Trenton, NJ: 100°, Atlantic City, NJ: 99°, NYC-Kennedy, NY: 99°, Hartford, CT: 99°, Lynchburg, VA: 98°, Philadelphia, PA: 98 °F. (Ref. Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link) 2006: From June 22nd to July 6th a total of 15.52 inches of rain occurred averaging more than one inch a day over one-half of a summer month period, amazing! (Ref. Annandale Weather Records) 2007: Death Valley, California: Death Valley reaches 129°F the fourth time it has been so hot at this site since 1913. (Ref. WxDoctor) 2009: In Twisp, WA, a couple took shelter in a car due to a thunderstorm. Lightning struck the car and blew out 2 of its tires. After the incident, the engine would not start. The couple was unhurt. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 2010: On the 6th, BWI soared to 105 °F; 2nd hottest day ever in Baltimore (107 °F, 7/10/36); at or above 100 °F at BWI on 5 days, most on record. BWI recorded record high temperatures on 4 days: 6th (105 °F), 7th (101 °F), 24th (101 °F) and 25th (100 °F). DCA soared to a record 102 °F on the 7th and 101 °F on the 24th. Ref. July PRESTO Page 1

Ended up with another 0.77" before midnight and 0.33" after for a 2-day total of 1.97". Heard the EAS last night. As I was posting, got another couple hundredths for 1.99". Bottomed out at 71 and currently overcast and 73 with dp 72.

71 / 70 1.12 in the buckets in the last 36 hours. Clouds, showers, heavier downpours look scattered south more / higher potential north and east - widesread. Another 40-48 hours of pretty miserable July weather before warming up (perhaps some heat in spots / steamy) drying out or the most part Wed - Fri, although showers/storms still seem possible Thu-Fri. The weekend is seemingly looking ok near normal - Ridge builds out west 7/7 - 7/14 with overall near - slightly below normal here , beyond there heat expands and pushes east to see progression back hotter after mid month.

Yeah i was there, sun was actually out for a decent portion of it

The beltway is a legit wall with these past few events. It was a wide swath of yellow until it approached the inner burbs in VA then went poof.

1.35” from the storm last night.

0.04”, ground wasn’t even wet when i woke up lol

It'll be fine, sometimes I wonder if covers are more a hassle than they are worth. They also become a bee haven.

What a game that was. England!

2.25" total, storm pulling away finally. 0.93" round 1 at 150 AM, 1.32" round 2 starting at 715 AM.

Our heatwave was 90, 91, 90, 91.

Columbia imby: 1.41” for Sunday into early Monday morning. July total thru early today 1.61”. - compared to total for all June ‘26: 1.87”

Then why use older temp forecasts to argue for warmer conditions? Be honest. If the Euro came in this month, or does in future months, that the NE will be a torch this winter, I suspect you, or one of your surrogates, will be all over it.

I could see the euro seasonal close to being accurate if we see a full discharge of the W pac warm pool and muted MC forcing. This is probably why the Euro plumes are also showing ONI of +3C to +4C. These go hand in hand IMO (warm pool discharge and record breaking Nino).

Yesterday rain here .28

1.20 here last night

1.03 here so far-nice soaker and it's a Monday so who cares

That makes more sense.

In a broad sense you can consider these seasonal models guidance, but the guidance is more of a correlation at times than an actual forecast. I showed in earlier posts how the 2023-2024 seasonal forecasts matched the correlations for Nino 3.4 and not the subset of super events over +2.0. About the only thing that the seasonal models have skill at in July are the Nino forecast plumes now that we are past the spring predictability barrier.

Your heavy rains come tonight along with another wife

1.03 here so far

Western CT will do well. Then it will taper off SE so most of RI and SE Mass get very little. Looked like that for days

1.96 of rain last night in Marysville. Thoughts & prayers to everyone affected by this severe weather event.

0.83" so far

Upton still on the rain train as per their AM Discussion: A stationary front will remain south of Long Island today. Multiple rounds of heavy rain, along with embedded thunderstorms are expected as a series of shortwaves ride along the boundary through tonight. Showers along with embedded thunderstorms are expected to continue through much of the day today as better upper level support/jet energy moves into the region. Conditions remain favorable for torrential rainfall rates/flooding today due to a humid air mass over the region. PWATs remain around 2 inches areawide today, although PWATs of 2+ inches may periodically advect into the southern portion of the area, which is higher than daily max sounding climatology values. Some of the 00z forecast models have indicated PWATs maxing out closer to 2.4 inches. With an easterly flow, mainly parallel to the frontal boundary, training of storms will be likely with potential for backbuilding. 00Z HREF probabilities for 3 inches of rain or more in 3 hours highlights portions of the NE NJ, NYC and Long Island in a 30 percent contour for this evening into tonight, which is typically a good indication of flash flooding potential for this area. As a result, WPC has placed NYC, Long Island and southern CT in a moderate risk for excessive rainfall today. In terms of rainfall amounts, storm total QPF through Tuesday will likely range between 2 and 3 inches with locally higher amounts of 4+ inches. Rainfall rates will likely be 1-2 inches per hour with locally higher rates possible. The main area of uncertainty with the forecast is where the highest rainfall totals and resulting flooding will occur and will depend on the exact placement of the frontal boundary. Flooding impacts would be highest in urban and poor drainage areas in addition to the most responsive rivers/creeks/streams.