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lol I was there last week as well, what an amazing place

By standard non-relative ONI, the strength index denotes 1.5 as the cut off for "strong" As I said, the modeling ( per CPC ) presently shows a cluster mean < than 1.5 (... granted, it's rising when the graph cuts off at the end of OND, only slowly). The problem is, RONI is a very necessary method for assessing how the ENSO modes might integrate/couple with the surrounding dispersion into the mid latitude pattern. It is less due to CC, for the purpose of discussion, in general. But it's also not absolute... it's just an assessment tool. Those ENSO modes back before ~20 years ago took place in enough of a different global environment that a more linear approach was a better predictor. Anyway, it rises to +1.3 or +1.4 in that range, cuts off before we know if mid winter gets there ( probably based on the trajectory of the graphical mean), doing so during the Relative ONI methodology arm of a very coherent CC acceleration. This doesn't smack as strong or super in either practical or intuitive sense. I think there's some excitement seeking. It may in fact go on to rise to 2.8 because something special, but I wanna know what are the mathematical/analytic reasons.

Snowing in Methuen..

snowy ride down the pike to get to work, car covered

Trying to enjoy this last snow until Nov ‘27

Lol, +SN now.

Driving to work over the Berkshires was horrible. Some towns have packed it in with the sand and salt. If only my car was powered by expletives!

29.8° SN Poundtown now

Yes, chances for Super El Nino are increasing. The last one was 15/16. If this holds, it could be a hot and dry summer in the south. Very concerning...

Now is when I appreciate living right next to the bay. Should moderate the temps down here a bit.

Not bad for 4/7..

Was snowing to beat the band in southborough. Coated everything.

1.5, even if not strong, is still notable. In the last 77 years, we've only had 10 events that cleared 1.5 on both the ONI and RONI (only 4 of these, in bold, cleared 2.0 on both - the threshold for super): 1957-58 1965-66 1972-73 1982-83 1986-88 (this was a double year el nino, which unlike the others, peaked in the summer of 1987) 1991-92 1997-98 2009-10 2015-16 2023-24

30.5° -SN Decent dendritic aggregates

Sheeh... I want to say it's 1/4S+ in this burst. Just pouring dendrites.

Not enjoying this 79725774645__97044C0A-00DE-458F-B690-F596D6828E3A.MOV

Another burst of moderate with graupel mixed in. Pavement coated up again. Probably finish with about 1.25” 31° Over performer.

The modeling looks like the key 3.4 region rises to just under +1.5 toward this next Xmas. Makes sense I suppose ... El Nino is Spanish for "Christ child" and is given to the name of the phenomenon for a reason; the canonical time of year for it to occur. Anyway, 1.5 is not super this or even very strong that. Where is this extremeness coming from ?

stopped for a bit but started back up.. we rip.. everything whitened up

Of course 5 minutes later it starts pouring cat paws and that gets a few white spots to show up.

Sun was out, but now getting another good burst. Exactly 1” on the car when I drove the kiddo to school.

I think the worst outcome is 36F snow like I had earlier. I’ll take an April blizzard.

Still snowing in the heavier bursts, but not quite hard enough get a coating on anything.

Actually, it's now a freeze warning from midnight on for the DC metro. (Other warnings up for the rest, freeze watch up for Thursday AM for the outer suburbs) URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 213 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016-VAZ054-057-071415- /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.W.0001.260408T0400Z-260408T1300Z/ District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-King George- 213 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 31 expected. * WHERE...The District of Columbia. In Maryland, Anne Arundel, Prince Georges, and Charles Counties. In Virginia, King George County, and Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

could be worse ... 44 years ago today, NYC-BOS were in the later stages of an April blizzard.