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This is a great post. I'm currently reading about a book about the carbon cycle and global warming, so hopefully I'll be able to understand more about this topic!

The Wiz won game 1 of the season!!!

Huh? First of all, there is no fake cold. FXWX already set that nonsense straight. The change is the Change/or progression of seasons. Going from fall towards winter…a sign of what’s next. Nobody is bragging, or wearing a badge of honor. We’re just saying what is happening. You seem to be the one that is taking this, and making it into something else? Is snow fake when it only happens at elevation? You see how ridiculous that sounds?

Congrats. May her pregnancy go well with a healthy kid in the end

It's gonna be a lonnnnnng Autumn as we discussed a few months back. Now that severe/tropical is dead, we're on the lookout for strong APP/Plains cutters. Hopefully we get a few big 'uns

Ahh, ok I stand corrected..figure it was the typical Pacific Northwest climate..cool and moist.

I have not seen a single frost here, but we hit like 26 one night. Not sure we had another below 32 though. Both can be true

Congrats Larry! This guy gave you a shout out for this post on his wx video. Go to 4:30 for it.

Tell us more about Poland Uncovered lol

This guy takes a pic of the same tree on the same day every fall. This year has definitely been weird around here

Today's highs: Bridgeport: 62° Islip: 61° New Haven: 61° New York City: 62° Newark: 65° White Plains: 64°

There's a legitimate chance we make it all the way into November with no rain. From Isaias to an extended very dry period - reminds me of the post-Helene pattern.

Spokane is a nice city, and really not that rainy. There’s a pretty large stretch of desert between Seattle and Spokane

Moderate snow at Mammoth RIGHT NOW!!!!! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

Amazing to have these beautiful days but by 9pm it’s below freezing and everything is covered in frost

Change to what though ? Does it feel like a storm final to a deep, great winter.. or just a function of shorter daylight and no dews leading to fake cold?

Depending on how well it does, I will attempt to pull other locations. Snowfall will be interesting, as 10:1 is too simple and Kuchera often leads to inflated amounts. Bufkit uses Cobb, so that's a possibility. Whether it can be integrated given what's available from the ECMWF remains to be seen. FYI, the 12z run showed a low of 41° at MPO for tomorrow (NBM is 37°).

The remainder of this week will see highs in the lower 60s. Friday will be briefly cooler with highs mainly in the upper 50s, but temperatures will likely return to the lower 60s for the weekend. Dry conditions are likely through the weekend into at least early next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C. ENSO Region 3.4 ties the all-time record set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -42.87 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.585 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 72% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.8° (0.9° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Spokane only averages 16” of precip annually, but averages 45” of snow.

It’s just something interesting that happens in a sea of boredom. Wake up and the lawn, car and rooftops are frozen. 90 minutes later it doesn’t matter. But just like anything weather, it’s a fleeting signal of change.

Last night was interesting with all the microclimates here and large elevation differences in small distances Scranton 38 Mount Pocono 35 Schnecksville 33 Allentown 40 Me 33. The high got to 62 here. You had some interesting variations too. Did you mention something about an inversion causing you to sense the pungent air coming from the wetlands in another post? I couldn't find that post or I would have put it in here. I wonder if the mosquitoes and other insects from the wet lands also get trapped under the inversion. I'd rather be in the hills you mentioned lol. I'll be interested in seeing how it does for this area too with the large elevation differences in such short distances. Does it do forecasts for all three major airports here Scranton, Mount Pocono and Allentown or does it also do the smaller airports in Lehighton and Hazleton? It wouldn't happen to have Lake Harmony or Albrightsville would it? I'd like to see its accuracy for this region too. Can you do a comparison for this area too Don? Thanks! And snow and mix lines in the winter