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CSU MLP has a decent area of 5+% TOR for Sunday.

I don’t take any of this personally. It’s more comical than anything else. The squabbles in these threads are more like Napoleon Vs Uncle Rico than anything really serious.

As an example of why breakpoint detection is absolutely essential, and where there are no alternatives besides something like a pictorial history of the station, Coatesville is a winner. From 1946 on to 1982, Coatesville station was at the Newlinville electric substation. The electric substation is constructed about 1927 to supply the steel works in town, and takes high voltage transmission line power and steps it down. BIG transformers are involved. The Newlinville electrical substation was frequently redesigned to meet the needs of the steel works. Transformer technology improves over time, with less waste heat. A cooling pool is installed at one point to take transformer heat during high loads, and is removed after 2005. So, we have a station with massive heat sources, that are moving as the station expands, and we need to detect changes in the station environment. This obviates all the musings about what caused a precise shift at time X and magnitude Y--this microsite is literally a thermal zoo. Automated breakpoint detection is the only way to salvage this data. Attached is a figure showing estimated power increases over time, developed from historical uses. These increases would have forced numerous changes over time at the substation. And consider, if a new transformer/switchgear is being installed, it would occur at a new pad on the site, while the old transformer/switchgear remains in operation. On change over, the newer transformer/heat source has moved abruptly, and the old transformer idled and eventually removed. Breakpoint. And the new heat source is very likely southwest from the earlier heat source, and very likely further away from the weather station. Attached also is a random thermal image of a substation.

The relatively good news continues as regards the Arctic sea ice area:

Cracy considering we were 72 for a low last night here at KDTW.

Sorry to hear that. I have a colleague whose son just graduated with an engineering degree from a good school and can’t even get an interview.

The Maine Public Lands "peer review" field trip was Tues/Wed in the woods south from MLT, and we saw very few mosquitos, black flies, almost no deer flies (thankfully). Had 0.22" from a 'probable' TS yesterday about 3 PM. We were meeting family in Hallowell at the time, but when we got home about 4 we noted that our thunderphobic Lab mix had been hiding in the bathroom.

1972-73 and 2022-23 were just a couple inches depending on the site.

Yeah wow that's weird. Wouldn't a calving event though cause the level to go up, not down? (given that this a measure of sea ice, not land ice) I believe that this measure allows for ice that has broken free but is still within the area of measure. Perhaps a large berg just exited the area being measured, and thus is not longer considered "Antarctic sea ice"?

I doubt that

Just wait....in a few years they can move back in when they are looking for jobs :-) I have two at home looking for their "Adult" jobs. THe older one had one after graduation but his company was folded into Staples and was laid off. The other graduated in December and is an applied math major sending resumes everywhere. Nice to have them home, but it can be a struggle seeing all they are trying to do and nothing.

72°/57° . Red tail surveying the woodyard.

Randomly it's pouring rain here right now, wasn't expecting that. Not a breeze in sight, it's pretty stagnant out there.

During super ninos, the most favored Great Lakes areas are those that favor NW flow lake effect, e.g. Edinboro/Colt Station/Chautaqua Ridge/S Tug Hill/Syracuse. This is due to the sheer number of coastal storms and even if they are mostly rain, the N stream diving in after can result in NW flow lake enhanced/upslope snow.

Min 55.4° Starting to get too cold.

My daughter moves into college in about 2 weeks. Will be very weird not having her home.

Really need good weather today and tomorrow as I am moving kid #3 into college this weekend after moving kid #2 into college earlier this week. #parentlife I know we have a few empty nesters here but have 2/3 of my kids out of the house is gonna be weird and hard to adjust to for a while. Will be fine over time but man, its a change.

John it might be a black hole for humans but it will be a Renaissance for the planet as with far fewer humans the planet will be much better off. I'm also not sure it will be a black hole for humanity because we will colonize space and leave this planet. Also it's an interesting analogy for a strictly scientific reason, black holes represent peak entropy in the universe and climate change reduces the differences between the poles and the tropics which also leads to peak entropy on our planet. And black holes might not be the end but only the beginning as several theories point to black holes being the birth place of new universes.

Low of 68. Couple nice days ahead. National high of 113 at Medicine Lodge, KS and low of 35 at Finland, MN. @canderson good luck with your rotator cuff.

WB 6Z EURO thru the weekend....

UHI has been a factor in NYC since the 1890s. It gradually spread out into the other boroughs and nearby NJ from the 1930s to 1950s. So elevated minimums are nothing new in the heat island relative to the outlying areas. But all areas have seen increasing minimum and maximum temperatures. The area on the average has seen many more 90° days since 2010 than at any other era. This is the first time the state of NJ away from the sea breeze has seen 9 consecutive years with over 30 days reaching 90°. In past we would get fewer summers with so many 90° days. Back then cooler summers were in the mix with even the urban stations staying under 10 or 15 days every several years. We have to go back to 1996 for even most warm spots to have under 10 days reaching 90°. You are definitely in a much cooler spot than much of the forum.

The thing I dislike about el ninos is they produce a dulling of extremes, cooler summers and warmer winters. Hotter summers and colder winters are much more interesting. Maybe in the future when we learn to control the weather we will figure out how to prevent these kinds of el ninos from happening. I envision gigantic underwater structures that control ocean currents. Until then i will just be happy knowing that the summers after El Nino are much hotter and drier.

I come from the MA forum where these kinds of posts are routine and keep things entertaining. Much like the NE forum as a matter of fact. None of it is meant as a personal attack. But vigorous discussion and disagreement is also routine in both forums. I don't believe I've crossed the line. We obviously have different personalities/viewpoints, but that's what you get in a public forum. It's unavoidable, hence the "ignore" feature is available. I think that's the only option available to either of us.