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Well, keep in mind that the NBM is an aggregate model, an integration of a bunch of different sources. I guess it’s kind of tantamount saying if it’s overdone then that means the majority of the models are overdone

It’s been wild from the get go and globals keep ticking/catching up to it…

21z H-triple-R showing forecast for midnight Saturday night. As for Nashville, we should be seeing a mix of sleet...freezing rain at that time that continues through the overnight into Sunday. QPF amounts are at least 1 inch through Sunday morning, and i'm being conservative. Let's pray that much of it is in the form of sleet. If it's ice accretion or even a good part, we'll have major issues here in Nashville and surrounding areas. Heavier ice accretion looks be over southwest Middle Tennessee. . Boyd

Looks like the 18Z EURO is still struggling with depicting sleet, as Brad P mentioned in his vlog.

No change.

I have seen anything backing this up lately.

You're quite bullish! What is your reasoning for this forecast?

If were were going to be completely screwed up here, I'd consider it, but it's comfy here. Had the squall earlier, and I'm under the LES from Ontario right now. Getting crushed. Big cold, big snow weekend. Best of luck down there. I think you could get 20 if this keeps amping.

The 18z NBM is wild. Probably overdone.

I never saw the finished run. Just the epic underwhelming map lol

18z Euros. Still think tomorrow with the 0zs and 12zs will be "go time" (including the NAM) -

AI Euro and GEFS were almost identical btw. Aside from the fretting of snowmaps or other warm-nose evolution, the scale of the system and moisture being worked with is impressive.

Shake and bake .

Call of 7" here.

Gfs isn’t alone, the NWS blend has also been showing big totals as well and pretty much all snow.

You know what's really interesting... The Euro-AIFS and AIGFS are really similar. Like scarily so.

Nice im not sure I've seen those colors on your maps before. Hopefully you are right im pulling for you

We need the moisture bad. I am very thankful for that. Any other people in here have cattle or will I be the only one chopping ice come this weekend? FYI I have been lurking on here for many years and finally reset my password to be able to comment again. So while I have not commented I have mentally been fully engaged in all discussions lol.

Went up to 3.8" after the squalls (yesterday and today), and just added 1.8" in the last hour under the big Ontario band. LFGGGGGG 5.6" two day total and counting.

Suicides followed

Purpled!! Love your maps and forecasts. Everyone would and should be happy if this come to fruition

Is there any data input to these models and if not when does the sampling begin.

But only 21 hrs

Beware, one was posted that wasn't finished snowing