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  2. BoulderWX
    I think it's a great run and I agree rations will be higher than 10:1 but as someone else mentioned earlier, there's more than just temps needed to ensure high ratios. I highly caution people not to ever assume more than 12:1.
  3. coastal front
    Man it doesn’t get much better then this. I feel our region has the most wiggle room with multiple ways to score. Let’s keep fine tuning the details .
  4. CoastalWx
    EPS AI bumped north from 6z too.
  5. Spanks45
    As long as I can measure before compaction starts...
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z EPS MSLPs: 12z EPS 850s: 12z EPS qpf: 12z EPS snow mean: 12z EPS ice: H5 trend with the Baja low:
  7. nrgjeff
    Yup! TVA sent big transmission line crews to help with the distribution system. Some of these models is that, but over a much wider area.
  8. buckeyefan1
    Yasssssssssss!
  9. Carvers Gap
    Decent agreement now. I have been waiting on the GEM-para to come into alignment. It did at 0z regarding E TN.
  10. anthonyweather
    this is super concerning
  11. Newman
    EPS also bumped up quite a bit from what I saw. Widespread 6-8" across SE PA at 10:1. Ratios get you 8-12". I think most would sign up for that
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, need more phasing....as is, it's a moderate impact...maybe more if you considier the cold.
  13. Maggie Valley Steve
    Winter RECON Missions upcoming over the Pacific ENE of Hawaii sampling the Upper Low tomorrow. Additionally missions for the atmospheric River streaming in across the Baja and Texas are planned as well.
  14. BretWx
    I am waiting for someone over there to say "sun angle" I get we're all snow starved but yeah, need to have a level head about it all. And not jump model to model. It is what it is and will be.
  15. Shocker0
    That was February 21, 2015. We had 1-2" of ice in Crossville. Most areas around us (outside the plateau) actually got mostly snow I think.
  16. Kay
    Oh yeah, there are many laughs to be had! I usually don't get too uptight about banter but traffic is gonna be so high. It's all good tho bc...zoomed out...this is what we live for!
  17. Save the itchy algae!
    No doubt the plateau would be problematic. I’ll look into the ‘14/15 time frame I just don’t recall anything significant offhand. I’m also in Farragut which is the warmest/driest spot in the Central Valley so it could’ve just skirted us.
  18. RVASnowLover
    Going to be a long week of tracking. A lot can change between now and Saturday. I would be cautious too. We don't get snow events like this much anymore.
  19. nrgjeff
    Yeah the Valley warm nose in the last 15 years rescues Chattanooga (above freezing) but might ice Knox. This one the cold is too deep. If the mid levels stay warm, Chatty's luck has ended. Then the Upper Plateau has that same risk. Instead of elevation helping with snow, it only adds to the cold vs the Lower Valley. Then both are warm aloft. I would like to see one other model besides the GFS get less ice. For now, weekend concerns continue to mount.
  20. SnowDawg
    EPS trend with the energy pieces. Baja tend is good but northern energy trend is bad. All together bad for us in terms of wanting more snow and less ice. Can we trend back to a more progressive look with the northern energy? Progressive has been the theme of late but this is an entirely different pattern.
  21. SnowGoose69
    Its pretty safe to say this event up this way will not be as insanely long duration in all likelihood as it may be down in the SE because they may see a crazy long overrunning period. I felt the 12Z Op Euro was gonna go full blown UKMET when I saw it through like 96 hours but it ultimately deviated after that.
  22. paulythegun
    12z Korean with WELL OVER 1" of QPF regionwide
  23. Hurricaneguy
    I can't help but think we are going to get the shaft again in Greene Co TN. Warm nose will creep in and cut totals down more than half. It drives me crazy how much things have changed in the last ten years or so with these storms. Our region was almost a lock on major snow events prior to the 2010s.
  24. Amped
    I,m just hoping we can get 1" liquid out of this thing. Kind of feels like weak sauce if we don't. 2010 and 2016 were close to 2-2.5" liquid equivalent if I remember correctly.
  25. RUNNAWAYICEBERG
    Thanks friend. Lets get sleet to shatter their cruiser lights.
  26. Brick Tamland
    Not really different than the 10:1 ratio map.
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