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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dxFBUJmARtU

A lot of the mesos fail to advance the most favorable severe parameters past Berks/Lebanon counties tomorrow. This doesn’t diminish the wind threat much but the chance for supercells could be confined to central PA.

How does this event compare to the 2012 derecho?

I came home after a trip earlier this week to find 3 feet of meltwater in my basement after a sump pump failure. Should be under control now but the pump will certainly keep working with another inch of rain incoming

Been hovering right around freezing. Rain with sleet mixed in during the heavier returns. No ice on roads but sidewalks are definitely slippery ETA this is definitely running a bit colder than models showed yesterday

Lived in Wausau back in the day. That place is cold and snowy.

The storm motions are going to be very rapid so it will basically be one shot at each storm for most chasers.

Cmc way north but thats going to most likely come south over time.

Speaking as a past and current employee at other universities around town, and veteran of midwestern tornadoes and being an RA through a couple EF3s, here’s a couple things she can do: - Does the building have a designated floor marshal or safety officer on staff, and does she know how to contact them? They’ll have exact info on where the shelters are and how to access them. I don’t know how AU’s program works, but Georgetown and UMD have had them in the buildings I’ve worked in to support evacuations and corralling personnel to safe locations. - If she can’t contact a floor marshal or one doesn’t exist, AU’s police department might have advice if she emails them. - If she’s got to ensure production safety in a weather event, I’m pulling from documentation that just got circulated to us at Maryland: get below ground, somewhere interior to the building, and stay away from walls and windows, doors with glass, etc. Ideally, the room shouldn’t have a lot of unsecured *stuff* in it like a media production room would, or electrical cables. If anyone has bike helmets or the like, put them on. Flash flooding in buildings can be a risk (this happened to me in grad school, and it happened at one of UMD’s libraries too), and that’s an evacuate ASAP situation. I hope that helps, and that it’s all just precautionary!

Whoops, didn’t refresh and was looking at old model data. Riding the border of meh and an actual legit storm IMBY

Pretty quiet here, maybe 2-3" so far

I was born here and still live in the same town and I can't really remember a setup where I was genuinely this worried. Normally severe weather excites me but I'm not really feeling it with this scenario. Definitely very concerning setup

Maybe slightly but still projected to be neutral or slightly negative.

Big

Yep and also a wind advisory out too .

West Tennessee is under enhanced storm risk and also has a freeze warning posted. That is pretty wild!!!

Ai euro would help the cause up north next weekend. AI’s held onto the snow for tomorrow’s hot garbage too long so I’m not getting overly interested until after tomorrow’s garbage moves out!

A sharp cutoff to our west. ROCKEDford. 1.3 for Naperville locked.

Can see the cold front coming. Nice band of dark clouds in the western sky. Temp here is 55, but has already dropped back to 45 at DVN.

1-2 inches of rain and dab still the call

Both the gfs and the nam would have a nice blizzard for most of N IL

They absolutely have, you even admitted it in the ENSO thread @cmillzz

Oh, and anyone trying to nail down the timing should never look at the NAMs. They’re always a couple of hours late with these events.

Hahaha. I don’t want to move on that chart. Maybe it’s because I’m out of town, but while I completely buy the high-end scenarios, there are a still a few things I don’t like about the setup. I would gladly exchange some of the shear to get more instability. Yes, there is still some cape, and maybe it’s enough, but the forecast soundings have tall, very skinny cape which sometimes doesn’t get the job done. That said, it’s tough to ignore that a forced line of convection will roll through in an environment that can certainly bring some big wind to the surface.

He popped in with a couple of snow forecast maps over the winter.