All Activity

Models have been placing the block too far west, which impacts how much it bleeds into the EPO domain. Take the 11th-14 for example. A week ago, the EPS had a positive EPO for this time period. Now, it has a deeply negative EPO.

Deep winter vibes when shoveling 6” at -1F ha.

Current observation at Wakefield is Heavy Snow with 1/4 mile visibility. They have a WSW with expected totals between 3-6”. Looks like the corridor between Richmond and Newport News gets the JP.

Today’s Euro Weeklies for week 3+ are still lacking cold domination to return to most of the E US south of the N tier with a solid -PNA dominating through mid Jan along with no -NAO or -AO. If this verifies, it would likely be pretty mild in much of the E US and nothing like we’ve been experiencing the last 2 weeks. However, models the last 3 weeks have been too warm in the E US with too much SER and missing much of the -NAO and -AO. Also, Midwest snowcover is well above avg, there’s the potential lag effects from the 11/28/25 SSWE, and the MJO remains favorable for E US cold. Are the weeklies/models finally getting their act together or are they going to continue with the same errors? Opinions?

Down to 33 with steady light snow

Yep, even down this way flake size has decreased most of the afternoon. Right now it is POURING snow, but flakes range from pixie to eraser end size. Still, snow is snow. Down two degrees in 30 minutes, currently 26.1/23.4 with a NNE wind 7 gusting 14 mph.

Actually had light snow you could see without really looking hard for a few mins. Now just drizzle.

Boom? I like booms. Especially in winter. Snow is part of my therapy. You have my attention.

Have faith little grasshopper. Ours is coming

Nice snow shower working through

I'll be in the Poconos driving back Monday night so book it!

Works for me. There's a big difference between upper 40s for highs, than low 60s for days on end.

For reference, it’s colder than 0z, but still has AN temps most of that week. Just keeps the ridge axis more in the center of the country vs over us. But maybe a step toward again muting west coast troughing and an east coast warmup.

18Z Nam with another nudge south.

I was looking at radar optimistic we had a couple more hours of good snowfall but you're right where its now started to decrease rates even further.

In great winter storm patterns over the years for our area, it wasn’t unusual for at least one of the long range model runs to correctly see the storm potential. During late January and early February 2021, it was an OP GEM run that had a correct KU forecast from a week out. With the poor storm track patterns for big snows since February 2022, none of those OP runs showing numerous KUs long range have verified.

Griteater was talking about the MJO, saying that while it's in Phase 8 per RMM, a KW/convection area flares in the Indo/Pacific and causes it to act like it's in Phase 6 through around December 12th-20th, before clearing and returning to a phase 8 look. That's likely the culprit behind the big warm up being modeled.

35 and finally all frozen... flurries. 0.04" of cold rain in the bucket.

Dry air is crushing us now in Albemarle. Pixie dust at this point. DP has dropped from 21 to 16 in the last 90 minutes. 3kNAM says we're about done. HRRR hints at another burst of precip in the next hour or so

Ya the hrrr is trash here

Hard disagree. They are two separate distinct shortwaves. Id be more concerned they are spaced so closely that they gum it up, and they both suck, which I’d actually place as probably the second biggest concern, to the sharpening trough.

From Raleigh N and East there may be a little wrap-around/back-building snow as well

This is almost certainly survivorship bias. Few here might remember the string of runs from the Euro and GFS and their ensemble counterparts from the week before that, showing a massive overrunning event that fizzled out at medium range.