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Light out til 9:00 in the height of the summer.

The Euro Weeklies have a mean potent -PNA Dec 15th-Jan 12th. It’s getting increasingly likely that Dec will average a -PNA. Since 1983-4, there have been 11 -ENSO winters with a sub -PNA. All 11 had a +PNA in the subsequent Jan. Based on this, the odds of a +PNA for Jan av ER aged out are increasing. If that were to verify, the chances would be high that the Euro’s potent -PNA Jan 1-12 will be wrong. We’ll see.

Euro has the weak Norlun on Saturday too. Some nice rain showers. On the edge of my seat, can barely contain my excitement

From who ? And yes I agree that we should get chances once we get into 8. There should be a lag so we are looking at mid to late December for a possibly big storm.

That would be the shortwave three option to get a storm which I mean maybe? Though no way to know if it'll be accurate this far out.

Damn whats up your ass ? So hostile.

Yeah, but it almost looks like there's something behind the Friday system. Nam map is just a parking lot during Christmas Eve.

NAM is colder this run but its razor edge

It has an extra lobe of energy further east than the 12z run and generally has the NS flatter instead of spikier worse run but impossible to know if itll verify yet 18z 12z

Ended with a great 1.09” rainfall. Stuck at 42.3 as of this writing

Typos should be fixed in that last post...at least you know it isn't chatGPT or Grok generated stuff from me! The typos tell the tale. Anyway, remember how I always say to look out when the control doesn't match the ensemble with the Euro Weeklies? The control has a habit(as does the GFS at range) at sniffing out bigger fronts. I think reality is closer to the control. I think ensembles are too washed out. What we are seeing is a strong presence of cold in the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains in the LR. The pattern in our area is cold front -> warm up -> cold front...wash, rinse, repeat. The ensemble washes that out, but the control does not. I think the Lower 48 may see a pretty strong cold outbreak. Does it head to the West first? Likely. But.....if it comes down the Plains in the form of an anafront, it is gonna be freakin' cold howler. I am going to take a look at afternoon individual ensembles to see how many have that type of strong cold front.

It’s been freezing rain here for about 2.5 hrs or so…have some good accretion…trees all coated nice and anything that’s not treated is ice. Temp was 31, and just went to 32. Nasty day.

11/11 0.1 11/30 0.1 12/02 0.2 (sleet) Total 0.4

I broke it down a bit further and researched winter storms since 2000 in December and this is what I could find for WNC- In December 2000 there was a 1-3 inch snow for most of the foothills west of 77 and mountains In December 2002 there was a nice CAD storm with 2-6 inches for most of the foothills and mountains In December 2003 there were multiple small events/icing events In December 2005 there were 2 icing events In December 2009 there was the big snowstorm on December 19 In December 2010 there were a couple small events and the big Christmas snow In December 2017 there was a big overrunning snow In December 2018 there was a big snow In December 2019 there was a light icing event So thats 9 out of 25 winters with at least small events. There were 4 big snowstorms in that time frame. December has definitely been feast or famine but over the past 25 years it has produced 3 of the 5 biggest snowstorms for WNC.

I hope you're awake and posting when you flip to snow.

She gone on the NAM

Maybe some trailing energy....maybe?

Snow hit town level now. Just drove through a low visibility, nickel and quarter flake sized shower in LaFollette.

Same here as the 32.8 rainfall rate increases

Based on this---I guess we can toss the Nam!

Nam looks flatter Edit: flattened

Only reason I'm not as enthused is that these sliders don't seem reach Baltimore north lately and I have no idea why. Something cuts of the moisture and I'd love to know what it is...so until one finally works here I find it hard to believe.

Mix line on the CC is creeping up to the 495 belt of the MV now. Rates and flake size still mostly blow here.

Getting sleet mixing in now

So, trying to remember if 40 mph winds were listed in the forecast for this afternoon.... 'cuz that be happening right now. Hit 39.4 around 2 pm, been S L O W L Y dropping since. Currently 38.0/30.2 with WNW wind 16 gusting 37 mph.