All Activity

2.52 inches so far. More to come as well.

Catching up here, now up to 2.3” or so.

What's up with these operational Euro and GFS just wildly gung ho happy capping summer the rest of the way. ah, okay - 'course, they tried selling that shit last month and we ended up with a heat wave for the trouble, so we'll see. But they keep carving out these anachronistic SPV bombs across S Canada - right at the climate-signaled pattern flaccidity time of the year, no less. The Euro's even trying to suppress summer in the west after their heat wave next week. But Europe's dead meet in ensembles. wow. The same exact bizarre repeating Omega block is now showing up from for the UK down the Iberian Peninsula. In fact, it looks even more idealized than the previous for a week from now.

You got it !!

Interesting storm motion. Storms moving east but keep building and redeveloping westward.

Good thing we have you to show us the light on these type of set ups.

SPC hinting at a vigorous shortwave next week crossing us that will be taping into extremely warm atmosphere air. Something to watch. Prob get a 4-8 day circle for it.

the worst seems to be over but there will still be some heavier downpours across the area tonight.

Just drove from Long Branch to Caldwell NJ. Parkway was fine, water went down except for 1 road closed in long branch. Is the worst of it over or later will it back build and clobber where it sets up? Looks like it's all exiting east

It's like two things are true simultaneously. The system is going to prove too amplified by leading guidance. But, where it rains... because of other factors the rain gets exaggerated - not because of the same amplitude of the model cinemas ... So of course everyone's going to credit the wrong shit.

That’s the problem I’ve faced a couple times while hiking out here in the summer (when it’s 100, not 110 bc I’m not messing with that)…there’s just no shade.

Super humid this morning. My glasses fogged up as soon as I went outside. It was 85/80 at 8:30 am. High was 93 before the storms rolled in.Heavy thunderstorm right now.

This should be over for W CT before morning . Maybe leftover shower. ENE may linger into the morning but even there it winds down tomorrow pm

For me . The rain was desperately needed

2.89" here now. Rain died down but is picking up a bit again. 3.64" on the radar estimate not sure if im low on my totals

Models just don't do well with setups like this in general. Everything is dependent on the exact placement of outflow boundaries with respect to terrain. Any marginal error in timing, placement, strength of cold pool, etc will result in a completely different evolution of these storms

Looks like cloae to .65 near my house. Definitely north of the best action.

The downpour in Somerset fell apart and radar is pretty quiet now. Looks like 1.06" is gonna do it here. Would've liked a lot more since we're in a severe drought, but at least it was enough to give everything a good watering.

6 inches since last night at my station in Sheepshead Bay Brooklyn. My little bit of lawn won't be brown too much longer!

I understand the frustration, but it is kind of a darned if you do, darned if you don't situation. If that 4" of rain that quickly fell west of Baltimore yesterday was over a city or a major roadway, there would be no questions about the veracity of the Flood Watch.

That and the topography out there. A combination of both likely the case. Good ole Mount Airy to Woodbine!

Not great weather for the pool, but I was able to mow the lawn and the contractor is getting his work done in the attic today

When you understand what the models strengths and weaknesses are in the long range, then you can start to make sense of what they are trying to say. So we start with what we know about the models and work from that starting point. A model strength of the ECMWF is more accurate ENSO SST forecasts once past the spring predictability barrier. The ECMWF ENSO SST forecasts with previous super events were actually pretty good from July 2023 and 2015. So chances are increasing with each model update that this will be the strongest El Niño event on record using a metric like traditional ONI anomalies and absolute SSTs. The current SSTs are already ahead of all the previous super El Niños to this point. The long range temperature forecasts for both the 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 super El Niño events were significantly too cold. The 500 mb forecasts provided some skill but the location and the magnitude of the ridges were more expansive with weaker troughs. This has been a common theme regardless of ENSO over the last decade. The areas under the ridges had temperatures which greatly exceeded forecasts. Plus there were one month intervals in the 2023-2024 and 2015-2016 super El Niño events when the Indio-Pacific warm pool was strong enough to drive the forcing outside the typical El Niño regions. This will be the first time with two super El Niño events only three years apart. It will be both a big sensible weather event around the world and a climate event. Since each super El Niño event since 1997-1998 resulted in a big jump in global temperatures to a higher baseline. June set new all-time SST records for developing El Niños in all Nino regions except 1+2. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii All-Time June SST records in bold YR MON NINO1+2 ANOM NINO3 ANOM NINO4 ANOM NINO3.4 ANOM 2026 6 25.94 2.82 28.33 1.71 30.19 1.22 29.17 1.44 2023 6 25.63 2.50 27.88 1.26 29.55 0.58 28.57 0.84 2015 6 25.32 2.19 28.07 1.45 29.88 0.92 28.90 1.18 1997 6 26.12 3.00 28.13 1.51 29.23 0.26 28.82 1.09

Power came back around Noon, it’s been out since the 4th. I have a full house generator so it wasn’t an issue. Just had no internet and couldn’t even make a phone call or send a text but that came back as well. .