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logic ? LOL !

Upper 10's-20's (30's along the Lake) this morning. Record/near record lows again across the area.

We did finally get another 1012+ mb today at Darwin though only barely (1012.15) helping to bring today’s SOI down to -9.25, lowest in a week though still not a strong -SOI. However, Darwin is forecasted to rise back very shortly. Looking ahead, the GFS not surprisingly (being that no other model had it) took away that tiny sfc low near Tahiti from its 5/12-13 maps and thus there won’t be those very strong -SOIs that an actual low would have generated. However, all of the models have general notably low pressure at Tahiti 5/14-6. That should result in notable -SOIs for those days. But because Darwin SLPs are also then progged to be somewhat BN, these won’t be as low as they could have been. Although Tahiti SLPs have been El Ninoish (- SLP anomalies) and will continue to be overall, Darwin SLPs still aren’t progged to be notably El Ninoish (+ anomalies). To get that, the N portion of the cold sfc highs coming from the cold regions to the south needs to extend more strongly further N into N Australia to get Darwin SLPs to go AN. They are forecast to rise back up modestly mid to late next week in N Australia but it remains to be seen if they’ll rise that much at Darwin to result in a notably -SOI period then.

80s in May happen most years here - only 4 of 28 failed to reach 80 and the median for May's warmest is 85. As for this week, highs 50s-60s and frost advisory the next 2 mornings.

That’s one of the most beautiful maps I’ve ever seen.

Got down to 32 yesterday morning and 30 this morning at the house. Feeling more confident this will be our last freeze of the season

Low of 45 with .04" of rain. Mostly a delightful spring week ahead.

Thanks

Yesterday that looked more plausible. Today's indicators more tamed to seasonal+ But you're putting up charts that are upper 80s... as a support for your 90+ Do you see the logical problem there?

Looking at some significantly warmer periods coming up but should be active with the fropas too. However, the theme should be much different than we've seen with cool dominating. Should be warmer days winning out with a day or two of cooler temps post fropas

Agreed. Considering that is only the forecast through October and it will still be strengthening/warming at that point (the models have it peaking in November/December), with the added warming, it would almost certainly tie if not beat the all time RONI record since 1950, which was 1982-83, with 1997-98 being the 2nd. And it would also beat the record traditional ONI since 1950

SNE and a neighborhood near you

Euro shows Philadelphia flirting with the century mark this weekend.

55 / 32 after a high of 80 yesterday. Cool next 5 days with clouds / showers the theme. Upper cutof low moves through Thu - Fri. Brunt of rain 0.5 - 1.00 in the wettest case is Wed - Thu and Fri. By Saturday moderation to a warmer period is beginning. Much above in the 5 /17 - 5/24 >80 / next 90s with peristent ridge/warmth beyond there.

Maybe in the lower Ohio Valley…

Still winter until ~ the 13.5th to the 15.3rd ... Just beyond, obvious wholesale changes to this side/continental hemisphere would likely change the correction vectors from defaulting cooler to defaulting warmer - more of a behavior argument. The actual outlook itself moves temperature needle from averaging these 64/33s, to 76/51s ish (with option for more or less depending on alpine vs lower els) in the dailies. As an afterthought ... we have enjoyed some 8 consecutive months of suppressing warmth over our local Meteorological/geography. Really since last autumn, this has been an amazing sabbatical from the responsibility to objective awareness ( LOL ). A time in which we've been enabled to forget certain tendencies ... one of which, if the pattern is 'warm', the warmth always overperforms - at least to some degree. Suppression of that specific behavior. A hint to that being the case? We've put up modest positive anomalies, despite cool pattern persistent complexions. Another interesting observation (for me) that betrays that "lie", our monthly means are less than the 2nd to 3rd warmest 8 months in Global climate history the world has enjoyed, spanning the last half year: we've been in a persistent offset region. It all goes away when the cooler hemispheric curvature biases finally decays... With the advent/onset of an aggressive ENSO guard change coinciding with seasonal change, this at least intuitively would be a good time to see that happen, and to at last escape this winter's instilled recency bias. So, with this pattern that appears to be higher confidence ( post the 15th)... that will yield warmer than the current mere seasonal look - trust me. How much so? ... yesterday there was a bit of a heat wave signal. That appears to less so for that moment - unless you're a GEPs fan, which I'm not. But life outside the resonant cool pattern of the recent year appears favored.

On 5/10/24 this happened:

Fringed so far in southern moco but hoping it spreads further north in this incoming stuff

Had 0.48" in gauge at 7 am CoCoRaHS reading, another tenth in gauge at 8 am. Currently light rain and 53.3/52.4. Wasn't raining at 2 am when I went to bed but was when I woke up at 6 am.

WB 6Z 3K NAM. Chilly overnight with freeze watch for highest elevations. Note latest NAM is a tick warmer.

I had one brief shower pass through and am watching and hoping for the good-looking stuff on radar heading in. We need this bad!

Let’s get these clouds out of here this morning.

Summer begins Saturday ! The few uninstalled’s , better install . 90+ next week

The Washington Post has a feature story concerning prediction markets. Far from this form of betting providing insight into the future, the Post's article suggests manipulation through massive numbers of automated transactions of 1 million or more transactions (roughly one every 3 seconds). If so, the prediction value is limited, as perceptions are created to back a given narrative disconnected from actual probabilities (an issue that is much less present in large, deep markets where handfuls of accounts lack the capacity to manipulate prices in most cases). As transactions in any buying-selling decision influence prices, these automated trades almost certainly have a price impact and, in the process, give their users a qualitative advantage by creating a skewed perception about the future. Not mentioned, but also a consideration, is the possession and use of inside information. Examples where such information might have been involved range from large trades shortly before President made tariff-related announcements e.g., postponing their implementation, and the recent military operation to remove President Maduro from Venezuela (one special forces soldier involved in the operation had placed large bets). One image from the piece: The full story can be found here: https://wapo.st/49o6Jxc

Wow! Radar looks surprisingly good for PG, AA, DC, and southern MD.