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Pretty well-equipped- they pull in a lot of big national electrical subs most of the time for any type of large-scale line work- Williams, etc....I have seen a lot of different subs doing work for Duke when I pull electrical infrastructure in on my build sites

It just picked up a bit...keep singing.

Final call for my area and the I-78/I-80 corridor in general. I have been riding 6-10" for the last few days. I'm a little reluctant to change it in the event the NAM is close to reality. However based on the following I am going to up it slightly: -There is going to be 3-4 hours of rippage with snow rates over 1" per hour as best forcing and lift moves northward. The ratios with that are going to be greater than 10:1, likely 12-14:1 for a while. -Thinking the NAM is slightly rushing the mid level warming and while I still believe sleet gets to I-80 and even north of there eventually, it may not rocket through as per the NAM. -The 6-10" I'd been going with might still be fine but think the 6" might be a tad low for the bottom amount and the 10" might not quite be enough at the top end. -NAM is the most dismal solution. Other shorter range models are suggesting maybe the mid level warming does not get quite to I-80 or it may drift back south once it does. Not giving high weight to that but it is possible. Think the mix eventually gets north of the NJ/NY border. -Once the forcing and lift passes north of the area the precipitation will be lighter and likely in the form of sleet. Going with 1 to 1.25" of liquid with about 60% of that (about .68") falling as pure snow - average ratio of 12:1 (8"). Final call: 7-11" along the I-78/I-80 corridor. Seems like a good low to high end amount. Think the 12"+ amounts will be mainly confined to central and NW Sussex County and NW Passaic County on northward.

Whichever model had the snow line furthest south...wins the first few hours.

Well I'll be damned, the CMC got out of bed. It's slightly more aggressive with the sleet line but throws out a map that is basically identical to 0z.

I have just enough knowledge of this to be dangerous, but high risk can correct me. Models have a dynamical core and various physics packages. About a decade ago NOAA/NWS decided to try to align all of the operational models with a single dynamical core. The FV3 was chosen but there have been some problems with it when it is run at finer convection-allowing resolution. So, the alternative was MPAS (model for predication across scales) from NCAR. I know that NSSL has been testing out MPAS a lot and that one may end up being the dynamical core. One of the problems with MPAS, though, is that it is computing-hungry compared to FV3. So, NOAA is weighing pros and cons.

If sharing this link is not OK ask Bob to remove it please https://aguacerowx.com/app/ .

I agree with some folks on the MA forum re: the NAM—I buy the warm nose but I don’t buy the super dry/slow start to the storm. 5 or 6” is the absolute worst case scenario imo. Maybe irrelevant but much of the Midwest seems to be hitting the top end of their snow predictions so far. If we wrung 4” of snow out of last Sunday surely we can double that in a much colder, much wetter, and longer-duration storm

Reflectivity

It pretty much nailed it here last night with us never being able to saturate but could have been a broken clock situation.

Heavy snow now. Temp is down to 19.

20 in NW DC.

NFL championship weekend

I still think even though others dissented that models are not programmed to handle at 30.70 to 30.50 baro freshly placed over top of us

Aye. One element that hasn't been mentioned much since we're so focused on QPF/storm track right now is the wind picking up during the day Monday once this mess clears the area. Definitely don't want thick treecycles exposed to 30 mph gusts.

My wife is also having a rough time today. Though it doesn’t sound as rough as what you’re dealing with.

snow in Blacksburg means it's about 6 hours out from my neck of the woods

20/-9. That sleet will be extra ping-y. Just hoping for SN/IP mix. Just makes it nicer for viewing.

It was flatter with the first round but then the trough coming in sharpened up a bit more vs 12z and helped with Monday.

Still snowing after 18h.

The GFS does use the FV3 core now. That has been the case since 2019.

We have chicken feathers .

Do I see less of a nose depicted there?? .