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Even got a few lightning strikes on the front end:

Storm mode soon

Returns already overhead and the temperature is still over 45 degrees out. Might be a bit of a rainy start.

I'm not over the cold (never will be), but agree I'd risk warmer weather if it meant some actual moisture, some of which actually falls as snow. We need the moisture regardless, but rain right now is not going to be soaked into the ground, unfortunately.

Goofus says what torch..

Afternoon AFD from LWX KEY MESSAGE 2...A potent winter storm with multiple hazards is likely to impact the region Friday into the weekend. A potent upper trough and Arctic cold front are set to track across the region Friday into the weekend. Ahead of the front, a leading shortwave trough quickly traverses our area during the day Friday, which could bring a burst of snow east of the Alleghenies. Accumulating snow along/east of I-81 will have to contend with more marginal temperatures in the low to mid 30s. However, the strong cold air advection and substantial lift in the DGZ could possibly overcome any marginal temps at the surface. Stay tuned to the forecast in the coming days for any possible impacts from snow on Friday. For the mountains, a steady period of moderate to possibly heavy snow is possible, with several inches of accumulating snow being noted in much of the model guidance. Additionally, the increasing winds will lead to blowing snow and reduced visibility issues. Snow squalls are possible Friday evening into Friday night as the base of the upper trough slams into the Alleghenies. This is a very favorable synoptic setup for upslope snow, though it is going to be short-lived as forcing quickly departs, and moisture is more limited due to abundant ice cover on Lake Erie and Lake Huron. As the upper trough digs right over our area Friday night, it is likely to induce a sudden onset of windy conditions, especially in the wind-favored climo areas (mountains & along/north of I-66). The 500mb height fields in the ECMWF and GFS show intense ripples within a very sharp gradient over the Appalachians - a signal that usually leads to mixing of stronger winds aloft with northwesterly downslope winds. Most of the guidance has wind gusts of 35-45 mph across the area, with 45-55 mph in the mountains. Higher gusts are noted in the ensemble guidance, thus Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings may eventually be needed for parts of the area. Frigid temperatures return to the area for this weekend, with highs in the teens to 20s each day (maybe getting to around freezing in parts of central VA). Lows Saturday morning drop to the teens, then likely see single digits to low teens areawide for Sunday morning. Wind chills are going to be in the low single digits to -5F or lower each night, with -10F to -20F in the mountains. Interestingly, the GFS has a progressive clipper passing through on Sunday that could bring additional light snow, but confidence in that is very low given model uncertainty. Otherwise, dry and cold conditions prevail this weekend into the start of next week.

Inverted trough.

NAM snatched from X

Looks like starting midweek next week we start seeing a lot more highs above freezing.

Euro is definitely shooting the core of the cold to our west. No complaints here.

Time is starting to run thin though, especially with not much - if anything in the pipe line in terms of anything big except that mid-month period but there is disagreement on how legit it is. Obviously we can get snow and big storms into March but it becomes much more difficult to do (outside of NNE). But once we hit that time change...bring on the warmer weather.

Care to explain?

We were predicted to hit 45 today. It's 36. I am sure it's going to rain but another day of thick clouds has meant snow not melting off the roads.

Nice. Could use a little refresher. The pack is looking quite stale now with the above freezing temps everyone has had the last couple days.

No need for me to even radar watch tomorrow night...not doing that!

Those who dont live in the Great Lakes just cant comprehend what its like to snow all the time. Just like some here complain about the east coast big dogs, my friend on Long Island gets a kick of how theres always at least mood flakes coming down here. I always tell him, bottom line, if its cold, it will snow. Now, amounts, systems, storm track etc...thats always TBD.

Yup, I’m still craving snow with the hopes of building on this pack before we truly warm and it becomes difficult to sustain it.

Going to enjoy what's left of winter and continue enjoying and admiring the scenery outside, but in another 4-5 weeks...I will be full on ready for warmer weather and looking for that first stretch of 60's.

39.9 for my high so far. You can see the melt around the edges.

The Euro AI deterministic leads the way then drops it! That was a crazy 06z call by the AI anyway. I don't receive 11 inches of snow with a primary over Toledo! The deterministic GFS and EURO pick it up at 12z. I like the EURO solution. 10 inches of snow with a primary to my south is much better than 11" with a primary 300 miles northwest.

37 Ice sheet glare gone, and now has the consistency of granular snow, except in shady areas. When it freezes again it will be crusty, not slick like ice. Liking that.

Its weird how looking at storms that could be rain coming for us is way better than looking at temps in the teens with absolutely nothing. At least we have a shot. I don't think its a good one, but its a better one than suppression to North Carolina while my heating bill skyrockets.