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For those who don’t realize how unprecedented in the ERA5 records this is forecasted to be at 10mb, 60N: The 0Z 10/27/26 EPS mean is forecasted to be 10-14 below the weakest on record per ERA5 data Nov 3rd-10th!

58 / 40 and the great stretch continues for late October. A touch cooler today and Wednesday then Thu - Sat should send most back to the 70s and temperatures will peak Friday with mid perhaps upper 70s. Overall warm 11/1 and beyond and dry through the 2nd with the next chance of meaningful rain towards the 2nd as weep trough into center of the nation.

This Halloween will be a stark contrast to the 2019 one. Had several inches of snow and temps in the 20s.

I hear you. I believe it’s more than just that. We are still in late October and I feel need to see how things develop in November and heading towards December. I know the strat stuff has mixed reviews on impacts but I still feel more comfortable seeing it taking strong hits than not. This El Niño is a beast and east-based, but the warmth in 3 and 3.4 is stronger than 1997 as well which can hopefully allow further westward movement of the North Pacific low a couple times if it also feels extreme blocking over the arctic. I think as a whole, it’ll be hard to fight the El Niño’s tendency to overwhelm but not impossible with other forcing from MJO and the arctic. Others have stated this kind of stuff already so nothing new, but I do feel is important. Being in MD, I’m just hoping for a good storm or two as we are long overdue for a big dog.

Thinking that there could be an interesting/more active pattern change coming mid-next week, with a much more seasonable airmass sticking around after like weds/thurs. Chances for rain showers, too

September is the sunniest month. I too have been enjoying this stretch. We'll have our share of storms and wind this winter

There is also no antecedent airmass to work with this early in the season.

Yes, all we can say is that this El Nino will be a bit warmer than it would have under identical conditions a decade ago....but not sure that is enough to account for the lack of MC contribution. We spent a decade observing how that amplifies warmth over the eastern CONUS, so we can't now pretend that it wasn't a factor.

all you need is a trough in the west and this happens

Isn’t it supposed to be calm this time of year? Doesn’t October have the most sunny days on average? Or am I thinking of another month? The action will come…it always does. And to be honest…I’m digging the clear beautiful weather at the moment. We’ve had enough rain all summer and fall up to two weeks ago.

I thought the MJO was the biggest factor, as MJO went through phases 4-6 in December which amplified the warmth. The MJO has heavily been absent from these phases since summer. If somehow we manage to hit them, then sure.

and this nino is a steroid injection

Andrej / severe-weather.eu @Recretos · 10m https://x.com/Recretos/status/2115073153533653480 With a lot of talk about the upcoming Polar Vortex disruption and a potentially official SSW (Stratospheric Warming) event, most people cant see what makes this event "unprecedented" as its often called. And for a good reason, as a single map of the #polarvortex can be vague in context. I decided to visualize that context. The official criteria for an SSW event is the reversal (0 or negative value) of the stratospheric winds at the 10mb level along the 60N polar circle line. We are still on the edge if we will reach a reversal with this event, but there are forecast runs that suggest its likely. Link to those live forecasts is in the comments Most of the SSW events occur in January and February. I decided to look at every first SSW of each season (some seasons had two) and when it occurred. As you can see, a reversal in the current event would break the record for the earliest SSW on date by at least 3 weeks! This is really a strong outlier, and having an SSW this early in the season is what makes this event unprecedented in itself, perhaps more so than any temperature or pressure anomaly in the stratosphere. Its likely not a coincidence we get this with a very strong Super El Niño ongoing in the Pacific. So overall, this is truly a very interesting season for anyone that is into monitoring the weather and seasonal development.

BAM Weather @bam_weather A #polarvortex split at this point is likely not if but when. This will have significant implications to the 2nd half of NOV and likely introduce much colder risks to the outlook. We will have a full detailed breakdown out to BAM clients today with our updated 3-4 week outlook. Excellent plots @Recretos thank you.

how is dec 2015 so unreasonable if the climate has warmed since then and this nino is stronger?

Maybe because your pushing December 2015 with +10 and others here are more sensible and realistic. A December +3-+5 is more in line with 72,82, and 97..than the extreme iof 2015. .

The AIFS ensembles are particularly warm for the first week of November. The regular ECMWF ensembles are still warm (highs in the 60s), but cooler than their AI counterparts. The extended range of the NBM is also closer to the regular ECMWF ensembles. Both sets of ECMWF ensembles have high spreads (uncertainty), especially after November 3. However, the uncertainty concerns the magnitude of warmth, not whether it will be warmer than normal. The idea of a warmer than normal start to November has been a recurrent theme on the guidance. The most recent ECMWF weekly guidance is below.

Today we should see highs from low 60's in ridge locations to the mid 60's in valley spots. This is about 3 degrees above normal with lows tonight in the mid 30's to low 40's. Temperatures will be near normal Wednesday but by Thursday and Friday we warm to near 70 degrees which is 6 to 10 degrees above normal, before we return to near normal by Saturday. It has been a while since our last rain but our next soaking rain looks to arrive Monday with around 1.0" possible according to the ChescoWx model. Of note 14 years ago today back in 2012 the Chester County Area was at the start of a 4 day storm that left as much as 6.16" of rain at West Chester 2NW. This was the remnants of Hurricane Sandy which tracked within about 20 miles of the county.

Today we should see highs from low 60's in ridge locations to the mid 60's in valley spots. This is about 3 degrees above normal with lows tonight in the mid 30's to low 40's. Temperatures will be near normal Wednesday but by Thursday and Friday we warm to near 70 degrees which is 6 to 10 degrees above normal, before we return to near normal by Saturday. It has been a while since our last rain but our next soaking rain looks to arrive Monday with around 1.0" possible according to the ChescoWx model. Of note 14 years ago today back in 2012 the Chester County Area was at the start of a 4 day storm that left as much as 6.16" of rain at West Chester 2NW. This was the remnants of Hurricane Sandy which tracked within about 20 miles of the county.

Ride or die with this (probably dying)

Ensembles look pretty wet starting next week. Globals habe been bouncing around but starting to settle in on idea of multiple systems

The season is done. It's almost impossible to get a named storm in November during an el nino. We couldn't even get one in November in 2023, and that season had 20 storms. 2 named storms and another hurricane is wishful thinking, especially in a season that's been very quiet. Maybe in the Pacific basin, but not in the Atlantic.

I think the elimination of the ample MC forcing from 2023-2024 helps. Strat warming is pretty varied in how it manifests so it's tough to say outside of the fact that it is probably too early at this point.

Boredom until 2027 severe season?