All Activity

I think the common theme, no matter the model run, is the prospects of a wetter winter than we've had in a long time. Honestly, that is a welcomed sight. Yes, we will probably have a bunch of very cold rain prospects considering the strength of the Nino and historical precedence. That said, timing a couple solid cold shots during the peak of winter (Jan-Feb) could easily get us a chance to score with some big daddy potential lurking considering the southern stream jet likely much more involved compared to what we see in a Nina. I'm still favoring a wet fall and winter with probably a low-end threat for winter in December, picking up as we move into peak climo. I also wouldn't be surprised if we get skunked in full, so tampering expectations. I'm genuinely excited just to have precipitation returning. I'd rather have precip so we can green things up for next spring and summer and not have the desolate brown we've been accustomed to for much of the past decade.

I get the reluctance for some to take a “wait and see” approach to see if the NH actually couples. But at the same time, just make a call. I think it’ll couple, and couple well. Sure, we can count on a less expansive area of below normal anomalies than the 1983 Aleutian Low due to warming. It is what it is. But otherwise it’ll couple in the NH and if i’m wrong i’m wrong.

Yes, this is why I was originally reluctant to accept the super-idea...but when I did my deep dive on the polar considerations a couple of weeks ago, I really considered everything from a solar perspective and it's really the 2023-2024 strong event that was the outlier....not this event. That is the one that "didn't fit".

What a time to be alive. And if this leads to a historic, record breaking Super La Nina, I'm even more all in.

Light showers moving through, just enough to jack the DP again. 71F/DP 68F

Getting a lower end super El Niño and an all-time record breaker only three years apart is a first for our modern climate era.

New euro seasonal out. Waiting to see some more maps posted. All I’ve seen so far peaks the giga-Nino at +4C and has the east coast very wet.

Is there anyone left debating the super Nino outcome? It already is I gave that up in March.

1.12" from this batch at my place. Rain looks to be ending according to radar with maybe some light stuff lingering. Since June 1st, looking at over 11" of rainfall (11.64") according to local PWS very close to my residence. It's not astronomical by any means, but better than a pure drought.

You just described 75% of social media.

Heavy tropical rain by the time I got to work. Typical August humidity . Plus, tidewater very high this morning.

Yeah what makes it interesting is the magnitude of this event, we have had super ninos before but previous ones have peaked around +2.5C, some of the latest guidance has this one in the +3.5C to even +4C range, which is significantly stronger than even previous super ninos. We have been tracking the more aggressive end of guidance too, on the dallies Ninos 3.4 is already at around +2.5C, Nino 3 +3C, and Nino 1.2 +4C.

We are witnessing and tracking something no other living human being has ever seen before... it's amazing.

It’s certainly possible. These impressive WWBs keep increasing the Warm pool and push it further east. The next one coming up will also break records.

Super El Nino gives us a super sub-tropical jet which, if merged with the pacific jet or arctic jet during a cold time in december, january or feb, can give us historic blizzards. There is going to be an incredibly active STJ Autumn/Winter. We just need a bit of cold air to go with that and BOOM. We have never ever seen anything like this before -- it's going to be very exciting to watch.

Farmers' Almanac Old Weather Folklore “If the first week in August is unusually warm, the coming winter will be snowy and long.” Where did this saying come from? No single person or organization created this proverb. Like many pieces of traditional weather lore, it was passed down orally through farming communities in England before making its way to North America with early settlers. By the late 1800s, it had become so well known that it appeared in Weather Lore: A Collection of Proverbs, Sayings, and Rules Concerning the Weather, published in 1893, indicating it was already considered an “old” saying at that time. Long before satellites, radar, and computer models, farmers carefully observed the seasons, looking for patterns that might hint at what lay ahead. While modern science hasn’t found evidence that a warm first week of August reliably predicts a snowy or long winter, these sayings remain a fascinating glimpse into the wisdom and traditions of generations past.

0.60 and counting

He needs to go outside and touch grass, in the real world if he told say his coworkers, friends family etc that there’s an incoming historic super Nino and it would lead to a mild winter in the east, most people are gonna respond to that with a “fuck yeah I’m not gonna have to shovel as much”…. I’m not happy about it because I ski, but in my experience most people prefer warm with less snow. I mean hes right that there is a historic super Nino coming, but a mind that ruminates about everyone who disagrees with you is not a mind optimized for efficiency. Let those people who think there won’t be a super Nino be confidently wrong… It’s a waste of time to try to convince some rando idiots on twitter and even care about what they think. Some people are going to be delusional and wishcast, we don’t do that on this subforum, he should grow up and just get over it and not give people he doesn’t like the time of day. They will continue to do what they do no matter what he says or what tantrum Adam throws, and Adam is going to do what he does. It is what it is.

Just a feeling, but I think the EURO is underdoing Nino 3.4.

Fun fact: For each of the first three days this month, MDT had a daily mean temp of exactly 77.5. Yesterday broke this with a 74.5.

Yeah. It seems to like my area. Birds are chirping and the rain is steady. It's a really beautiful morning. Makes you appreciate where we live in the world.

Agree, but sadly some will never keep an open mind, admit error, and stop attacking those with alternate viewpoints.

Records: Highs: EWR: 102 (1944) NYC: 101 (1944) LGA: 100 (1955) JFK: 96 (2010) Lows: EWR: 57 (1951) NYC: 56 (1951) LGA: 57 (1972) JFK: 60 (1959) Historical: 1843 - A spectacular cloudburst near Philadelphia turned the small creeks and streams entering the Delaware River into raging torrents. As much as sixteen inches of rain fell in just three hours. Flooding destroyed thirty-two county bridges, and caused nineteen deaths. It is believed that several small tornadoes accompanied the torrential rains, one of which upset and sank more than thirty barges on the Schuylkill River. (David Ludlum) 1875: Several tornadoes moved across northern and central Illinois. One of the stronger tornadoes touched down in Warren and Knox County where it destroyed 25 homes and killed two people. Another in a series of tornadoes touched down near Knoxville and moved east into northern Peoria County. This estimated F4 tornado injured 40 people and was described by eyewitnesses as looking like a "monstrous haystack." 1904: Detroit Lakes woman is hit by lightning. It melted her hairpins and steel in corset but does not kill her.(Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1915: Fort Wayne, IN set their coldest August high temperature with 60°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1961 - The temperature at Ice Harbor Dam, WA, soared to 118 degrees to equal the state record established at Wahluke on the 24th of July in 1928. The afternoon high of 111 degrees at Havre, MT, was an all-time record for that location. (The Weather Channel) 1961: McAllen, Texas: McAllen sets a new record high on Wednesday when the temperature soars to 105 °F. McAllen has now set a new record high on all but one day so far this month. (Ref. WxDoctor) 1974: Fort Walton Beach, Fla.--Lightning struck an aluminum ladder at a construction project. The man on the ladder was killed, three nearby workmen were injured. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf) 1980: Hurricane Allen was one of the most intense hurricanes ever observed in the Atlantic. On this date, the hurricane reached Category 5 status for the first of three times during its long path across the Atlantic as reconnaissance aircraft measured a 911 millibars (26.90 inches of mercury) pressure in the eastern Caribbean while south of Puerto Rico. Later this day, Allen moved across Haiti, ruining much of the country's coffee crop and killing 220 people.Casper, WY established new record low of 39°; breaking the previous record by 9 degrees. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1983: Very heavy thunderstorms hit the southern portion of metro Denver, CO. 2.89 inches of rain fell in just 38 minutes causing widespread street flooding in southeast Denver. Two feet of water covered a section of Interstate 25. Hail up to golf ball size accompanied the storm in Littleton and Englewood along with 60 mph winds. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1987 - Severe thunderstorms raked eastern South Dakota. The thunderstorms spawned half a dozen tornadoes, produced softball size hail at Bowdle, and produced wind gusts to 90 mph south of Watertown. Hot weather continued in eastern Texas. Afternoon highs of 100 degrees at Houston and 106 degrees at Waco equalled records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Indiana and Lower Michigan to Pennsylvania and New York State during the day. Thunderstorms in Michigan produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Ashley, Hastings and Lennon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Oklahoma, and from Iowa to the Upper Ohio Valley, with 216 reports of large hail or damaging winds between early Saturday morning and early Sunday morning. Thunderstorms moving across Iowa around sunrise produced extremely high winds which caused ten million dollars damage to crops in Carroll and Greene Counties. Thunderstorm winds at Jefferson IA reached 102 mph. Afternoon thunderstorms produced tennis ball size hail at Bay Mills, WI. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1995: Near Deerfield, KS, hail piled in huge drifts and stripped corn in a two mile wide swath. Hail drifts were still evident 24 hours later. Rain of over six inches in a short time caused flash flooding in the Deerfield area. Highway 50 was covered by three feet of water and was closed for several hours and limited to one way traffic for 24 hours. Sand was deposited on many streets bringing out heavy equipment to clear the debris. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1999: Governors of four Mid-Atlantic States imposed mandatory water restrictions as the worst drought in the history of the region continued. The period April through July ranked as the second driest ever for the Northeast, second only to 1965. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2000: A wet microburst with winds estimated at 120 mph caused heavy damage in and around Mitchell, SD. Apartments and several mobile homes were destroyed, vehicles were overturned, and other damage occurred to buildings and vehicles. Widespread tree and power line damage also occurred. 10 people were injured, although the majority of the injuries were minor. The damage path was approximately a mile and a half long and a mile wide, extending over the southwest part of Mitchell. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2002: Tropical Storm Bertha became the first tropical system of the 2002 Atlantic hurricane to make a U.S. landfall. Bertha dumped 7.15 inches of rain on Pascagoula, MS in 24 hours. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2020: Tropical Storm Isaias hit the eastern third of Virginia hardest on Tuesday morning during its brief but destructive journey up the Eastern Seaboard. Several hours of torrential rain flooded dozens of roads, while winds gusting past 45 mph downed trees and put hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses in the dark. The storm left scattered road closures and power outages in metro Richmond and more widespread disruption across the Tidewater region, where winds approached 70 mph. No serious damage was reported in the western half of the state. (Ref. The Richmond Times Dispatch)

75 / DP 68 clouds and brunt of rain concentrated around DEL/PHL riding north along the Delaware rvr. Overall hazy/hot/humid as the Atlantic ridge hugs the east coast potential for 90s the next 6 days 8/6 - 8/11 but South Florida style daily storm firing. Extent of trough into the NE/E next week between 8/12 - 8/14 TBD Euro maintains near normal and then returns a warmer overall 8/15 - beyond.

Wasn't really expecting much this morning up to 0.43 and still moderate rain