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Yeah average highs in the upper 70s now and quickly dropping so even low 80s will be AN

I would disagree with several points here

43°F this morning, 40°F yesterday, (was the low so far), Overnight temps are looking 40ish for the next few days.

This really is the best time of the year temperature wise

This is where we get into non-linear climate shifts as opposed to the more generic and bland sounding CC term. From around 1880 to 1982 we were more or less in a common climate era as the temperature didn’t change that much. Then once emissions began to accelerate after 1980 temperatures began to rise at faster rate. The 1970s were the last time the CONUS had top 10 coldest winters. The next era was from 1982 to 1997 when be began to notice a faster rate of warming than before 1982. Regionally we were still getting very cold winters during this period. But the cold wasn’t as widespread as back in the 1970s. The first real jump in global and national temperatures occurred in 1998. So the next era with similar temperatures occurred from 1998 to early 2015. Some regions like the Midwest and Great Lakes were able to have a very impressive cold and snow in 2013-2014. But this cold couldn’t reach the magnitude across the CONUS that it did during the 1970s. So it was more focused into your area. 2015-2016 was the greatest shift or jump in temperatures that we have ever seen. This marks the beginning of a much warmer era where none of the winters since then have been able to rival any of the snow and cold records experienced as recently as 2009-2010 to 2014-2015. This last decade was the warmest on record during the winters for the CONUS by a significant margin. So we went from CONUS widespread cold in the 1970s to more narrowly focused regional cold prior to 2015-2016. The cold outbreaks since then have been regionally focused more around 30-45 days rather than the 90 day + regional cold of 13-14 and 14-15. The geographic footprint and duration of the cold has been getting shorter. Following the 2015-2016 baseline temperature shift or jump, the cold outbreaks between have been more narrowly focused and of shorter duration. The area around Rockford, IL set a new all-time low in January 2019 but the duration of the extreme cold wasn’t that long. My area in the Northeast had a great 2 week cold period from late December 2017 into early January 2018. But this didn’t last and was followed up by our first 80° February warmth ever. Fast forward to February 2021 for the record cold focused in the Plains for around a month. But the magnitude of the warmth in December 2021 around DFW was greater than that of the cold in February 2021. Next we experienced another global and national baseline temperature shift or jump to higher during 2023-2024. So the core cold this winter was again more narrowly focused and didn’t rank very high as it followed the 4th warmest December on record for the CONUS. The common theme since 2015-2016 has been shorter and more regionally focused cold events surrounded by periods of higher ranking record warmth.

smooth it for now... its raining today and that was relatively dismissed-underestimated by media communicators. VERY unusual pattern for Sun-Mon so not a lock 1.5"+ but am pretty sure many of us will see more rain than that which occurs today.

As I've gotten on into middle age-dom, my winter anticipation has changed. I'm not just like this guy at the mere thought of winter anymore. There's all kinds of rules now. Like, if it is going to be a perpetual 44 F with wind over bare earth boning? Leave the region and don't leave any forwarding contact information - it doesn't exist while gone. Out of sight. Out of mind. Even if there's a threat in there some-whence, it's too late. No interest. Winter is hell. F you! Complete ghosting of New England However, if winter is actually going to perform like a Rockwellian nostalgia? I'm all in. The problem is, due to CC's one-eyed bum monster, the boning option is probabilistically favored. <-- that simple sentence causes internet fights, but when the dust settles, it's still unfortunately true.

Probably a bit of actual measurable rainfall in and around NW PGC and SE Moco this AM. Very light though.

late April, early May vibes

Surface dews in the 60s, LIs -4, 1000-2000 joules of CAPE.... I'll take my chances.

Cloudy again

Brightwaters: rain, 63

An early frost?

A few light showers/storms, mostly WNE. Nbd

Ha ha... without even a local, either. no but but seriously, it's like they ran this frame from my cellar. I've been ruminating - much to the chagrin of others ... - that I don't see how/why the wind scarped, shear stressed, resonance failing high variance winters of the last 10 years won't simply repeat, despite all leading indicators and that most confidence inspiring metric off all: spontaneous crowd physics emerged cause for exuberance. LOL If you can ferret out some usefulness in that super nova of adjectives, it goes something like a repeat of recency. But yeah... I mean not in an absolute sense. Tendency to do so... I think our best shot at avoiding that absoluteness ... would be the ~ mid Nov to early Jan span. After that ... we'll see on the SSW/AO modulation stuff - I have to tell you though ...I am one of the original SSW guys from 20 years ago. I used to hammer the theoretical side, replete with graphical displays and annotated charts. I have since toned it down, however ... Because, I've noticed over the years that despite the correlation between (specifically...) down-welling stratospheric warm plumes ( i.e., not merely having a warm plume present - huge comprehension problem with this still exists ...), the -AO response then has a less correlative forcing on the temperature distribution at mid latitudes. Note, less does not mean no - it implies not all -AO's have the same talent. This is a-priori evidenced in the fact that there's a maelstrom of mid and lower latitude teleconnectors that come along with their own capacity to overwhelm. That can mean everything from a general offset, to forcing events over in Asia.. .etc.. Basically, we need to have a constructive interference after the fact of a down-welling AO, to really make it useful/correlate to our wintry results. Otherwise, the transience of the -AO response can come and go with variable actual fruit to bear. The other aspect is that these SSWs and or just warm intrusions at higher latitude, seem to happening later in the seasons - not enough data for confidence here.

As you travel through Frederick, if you are going highway speed, you can see a little drizzle on the windshield....

I was just looking at that. Certainly an interesting evolution. Cold pool for the win?

Wouldn't mind a bit of rain, but otherwise it is pretty spectacular run we got coming here. 80/55 every day for the next week+.

I still suggest this should be watched on Sunday ...

Cansips look good

Peak Hurricane season. Really?

Currently 61. Should be a perfect Fall day with mid-60's and drizzle later on.

I like the soutern US anomalies again. Lets get a snowy NNE and srn US and porked in SNE.

I'll take the clouds and drizzle. Mainly the drizzle

59 with some on and off light rain.