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Heat Island kept MSP at a relatively mild 46 overnight.

Curious what the previous record was

If we get one it’ll be weak. There will be other factors at play that’ll determine what kind of winter we get.

Stein coming at us in all directions.. crushing everything as he moves in

It looks like the ONI and RONI are converging: JJA 2025 ONI (NOAA): -0.2 JJA 2025 RONI: -0.46 August 2025 PDO: -3.23 (July 2025 PDO was adjusted to -4.12) If the el nino happens in 2026-27, I can only see it going weak or moderate. If it happens in 2027-28, it will be much stronger with the extra year to develop. (I mean, it's no surprise the 15-16 el nino was very strong because of the extra 3 years it had to develop. It didn't happen in 12-13 as most people thought, or even 14-15.)

It seems like people are pretty much already set on a niña? Are we jumping the gun?

What look do you get with the combined QBO Status ?

Big cold front coming in this weekend.

Had a low of 56 with guess what more rain this morning.

@buckeyefan1or @Mr Bob will you pin this thread and unpin our summer thread? Thank you in advance.

We should see our 1st above normal temperature day in 17 days today for many areas. A couple of cold fronts the first weak this evening and the next one on Saturday is stronger. Each of these may bring some much-needed rain. In fact, the National Weather Service has much of Chester County with between 0.75" to 1.00" of much needed rain by Sunday morning. Behind that front we turn much chillier again by Sunday night with a return to below normal temperatures with lows in the 40's and highs in the low 70's next week.

We should see our 1st above normal temperature day in 17 days today for many areas. A couple of cold fronts the first weak this evening and the next one on Saturday is stronger. Each of these may bring some much-needed rain. In fact, the National Weather Service has much of Chester County with between 0.75" to 1.00" of much needed rain by Sunday morning. Behind that front we turn much chillier again by Sunday night with a return to below normal temperatures with lows in the 40's and highs in the low 70's next week.

Hopefully most places west of nyc can squeeze out a quarter inch tonight

Starting to see some drought showing up finally. I've only received about 1/2 of an inch since late July. Needless to say, lawns are quite brown and dormant, with some premature leaf droppage.

58° with moderate rain this morning in South Toe. 54° at my house in Wolf Laurel. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

This thread is for forecast discussions and speculation regarding the upcoming winter.

Let's Go!!!!

He seems to do this every year. He understands that the holiday season is a high profile season due to travel and other activities. He understands the romantic power of a "white Christmas." Thus, he seizes upon the element of timing to pull emotional triggers and set a digital wildfire with his calls for a cold and often snowy Thanksgiving to Christmas. Almost certainly, the mention of snow will be made as the holidays draw closer to ensure maximum attention and to keep the digital fire burning. He also understands that memories are short-term. All the failed forecasts will be forgotten. They always are. Thus, he recycles his calls over and over again in what ultimately is a successful pursuit of clicks. In this social media game, "winning" is defined by clicks not accuracy. Having said this, La Niña winters can get off to a fast start. But with some exceptions, they fade as the forcing shifts.

- I predicted 139 ACE in the contest before the season started. -There's still a long way to go based on it being La Niña and also considering that recent La Niña seasons have been more backended than in the past. -IF ACE ends up low, I’ll give you kudos. If not I hope you’ll be humble and admit you were wrong.

Based on early looks, we should have opportunities for them. Normal caveats apply down here in SEvilles tho. Take what we can get.

The GFS love giving the area super rare events. I'm still waiting for my 45" of snow in Annopoils from those runs last winter lol

GFS ensemble mean has -400dm over Wisconsin in 2 days. I wonder when was the last time we had the 5400dm line in the US within 45 days of the hottest of the year? It comes in as purple, and that's been a rare pattern lately, only really happening over the AO and NAO regions.

https://r.tapatalk.com/shareLink/topic?url=https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62156-2025-2026-fallwinter-mountain-thread/&share_tid=62156&share_fid=13197&share_type=t&link_source=app 2025-2026 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

Where can I find discussion about the upcoming winter? Hoping for lots of snow for the se crew! .