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It ain’t sick of us!

Yeah, I enjoyed the really cool summers growing up in Long Beach that we would get every few years. That 2010 summer really reset our whole summer pattern to much warmer. 2009 was the last time we had a cool summer here. While 2014 was our last comfortable summer, it didn’t really make it to the 2009 level of coolness. 2009 was the last top 10 coolest June and July which was the coolest since the 1940s. As the recent less warm summers like 2023, 2017, and 2014 were a function of the much warmer summer climate normals. Those were still a little warmer than the long term average. Plus 2023 and 2017 still had between 15-20 days at places like JFK with a 75° or greater dew point. So those very high dew points worked against the cooler and lower humidity summers of the past.

Ended up with .09 inch of rain. Pleasant surprise for the grass

Did we jump to October? Currently 67 with moderate rain and a stiff NE breeze. 0.36” additional so far 4.29” event total

Excuse me? Cutting fat off the bone sometimes takes good meat too. When that happens you reevaluate and rehire to refill the meat. My situation was purely financial. I accepted it. Our government was a cash cow for many. Sometimes good people get caught up in fiscal decisions. Glad they rectified. The 100 probies let go all have been offered their jobs back or already rehired. So glad all that millions and millions of DEI grift is over though.

Yes, same here, I got a needed .09 yesterday evening.

12 hours later the GFS says wait till next year.

That is not as strongly positive as I had suspected. I'm doing a lot of seasonal work on the polar domain right now...will be interesting to see if we jive again.

Surprise drink this morning, picked up about .10”

Hour 384 in regard to tropical development minus well be hour 1000+. This scenario will change at least 10x before we even get to hour 200 let alone 384. Interesting to look at but whether it is the 18z gfs or even this 0z Euro run for it to play out this way is unlikely. The only thing that these model runs tell me is that there will be an uptick in activity and wait and see what happens over the next 3-5 days. What I have noticed is that the models are pushing everything back 5-10 days which is also a typical caveat of modeling. What happened last year we were searching for 10 days out and hour 384 etc. and then we had storms like Hurricane Heleen blow up out of nowhere which could be the case this year. I would not watch 384 hours out but rather just make sure we are not missing something closer in time. I think the next 3-4 days of model watching and looking at other things like the visible and water vapor maps will be useful tools to locate harmless little low level or mid-level swirls that become something bigger in time. Mean time here in Kitty Hawk where I still am the strong gusty NE winds have begun again, and the beaches are once again closed to swimmers due to heavy surf and dangerous rip currents under 82-85 water temps.

Someone (Wiz?) mentioned to look out for some scattered stuff.

I'll just point out that I don't think that is what he thought when his job was eliminated at the museum in Connecticut.

What has been causing all that convection and heavy rain for Hippy and NW MA? That wasn’t really modeled so widespread

So nice this morning. Next few days are going to be as good as it gets for early August.

As hoped, the atmosphere took my post as a challenge. Marginal risk today, slight just northwest of me Saturday. Not looking like anything huge, but better than it was looking just 24 hours ago.

Glad to know you feel that way. The probationary employees that were let go were not the fat in the organization. I know them, I had friends lose their jobs. I frankly find it offensive. That ho hum attitude about it all is definitely what is causing people to continue quitting government service in NOAA/NWS.

Have had less than 1/2" since July 16th. And no rain in sight.

My oh my, are we looking hot next week.

Cue the creepy DIT comment.

jfc, im so sick of this summer already.

Gosh, maybe one of those will visit! We are do.....

Some nice looking members on the EPS

July was the strongest Southeast ridge on record for the month from NYC to ATL. This beats the previous record July 500mb heights set back in 1952. But the difference this time is that we had a +0.74 PNA for July. While July 1952 had a -1.23 PNA. So we continue to see these disconnects between the higher latitudes and mid-latitudes. This disconnect is why the Euro still has a Southeast ridge into next winter while also having a -EPO and +PNA.

$25,000 fine for using a trail system in the woods. They aren’t messing around up there.