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  2. WeatherGeek2025
    hey bluewave how was the 2015 summer? was it hot, average or cooler than normal?
  3. weatherwiz
    There definitely is some support for the typical torch spots to hit 90
  4. high risk
    We know that if a rising parcel is much warmer than its environment (implying large CAPE), it will accelerate more and create intense updrafts. The same concept in reverse is true for a downdraft. If the sinking parcel is much colder than its environment, it will accelerate downward, leading to a more intense downdraft. The area between the path of the rising parcel and its environment is CAPE; the area between the path of the sinking parcel and its environment is DCAPE. You can find a nice slide deck at https://www.weather.gov/media/lmk/soo/DCAPE_Web.pdf
  5. dendrite
    Yeah that’s the goofus with overmixing issues. They did something to it 5-10 years ago where the mixing just went wildy superadiabatic a month or so either side of the solstice. The 110s were fun though. It does it every summer under the heat ridge in the Plains too…120s into the eastern Dakotas and Minny for a couple of days when in actuality it ends up 95/75 instead of 120/45. 00z euro definitely supported near 90° a day or two next week, but that’s pretty far our there in lalaland for us up here given our climo.
  6. dendrite
    He did…I watched it on radar. But you will eventually learn that every storm and gust front will elicit “biggest drops EVER” and “gusts at least 60mph” in leafed out trees.
  7. Maestrobjwa
    Alright so next week everybody drop off all your drenched sweat rags, shirts, and other humidity paraphernalia at 87's house. Don't even wring it out just slop it at the door
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    You are really latching onto the far east part of this 2nd Kelvin wave. When the next one moves across, warm subsurface anomalies will recenter - overall they are further west in the mean than 1997.
  9. The Iceman
    Styers Orchard up near me in Bucks County announced the same thing, lost pretty much their entire apple crop this year and are going to have to import them to sell. Very sad, I enjoy fresh apples in this area over the summer. The last freeze killed my one blueberry bush but the other is looking like its about to fruit and do OK. My rasberries and strawberries are doing better than ever though.
  10. snowman19
    Maybe, maybe not. We aren’t going to have a good idea where the forcing will actually set up during the winter for several more months. For now, so far, this event looks a lot more like 1997 than it does 2015
  11. vortex95
    Or 6/1/2011. Even when a spinner occur in Weymouth a few years ago, Scott was unimpressed! "If I do not SEE it, doesn't COUNT!" LOL.
  12. vortex95
    Use 2m temps w/ caution, esp. in the longer ranges. They do not have MOS incorporated, so often run much too warm. I recall the GFS at times when a heat wave is fcst, showing BOS max of 110 on days 8-10. And look at the GFSX MOS for BOS, 70-75 Sun-Mon.
  13. bluewave
    Other stations have done it further back in time with Caldwell being the most recent in 2021. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2021 84 90 91 91
  14. Herb@MAWS
    0.11” Sunday afternoon 0.04” Monday morning 0.43” so far in May
  15. HIPPYVALLEY
    Nobody in SNE is hitting 90 next week.
  16. CoastalWx
    5/21/96 or bust.
  17. metagraphica
    lol...never offended by anything I read online, but you do certainly make me laugh at your pretentiousness.
  18. vortex95
    In this case, Templeton got the best storm of the day, and its intensity max right over the area, and then weakened. When you are not expecting it, and the isolated happens to be in your backyard, of course you are going to be elated! Also, early season convection after a long winter always gets more notice.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't think this one is going to be as east as 1997. That one hugged South America The forcing with this one may actually be quite a bit more west Nino 4 is much different now than in 1997
  20. snowman19
    Out of the last 4 “recent” super El Niño events (1972, 1982, 1997, 2015), this one matches 1997 the closest, by far. Although this one is warmer in the subsurface than 1997 was. It looks nothing at all like 2015 at this time in either the subsurface or the surface. The DWKWs have just begun to surface at the coast of South America over the last couple of days. This one is certainly following a classic east-based/EP progression…..
  21. MN Transplant
    The radar QPE algorithm is having a terrible time with this event. I’m sitting at 0.23” and DCA is 0.21” and the radar estimate is ~0.7”.
  22. BlizzardNole
    @CAPE you got some yellows and orange on radar heading in?
  23. Today
  24. mreaves
    She only looks petrified, she's actually frozen stiff.
  25. AnEndlessMaze
    I haven’t moved the rain magnet from my old house yet, so congrats SOMD
  26. SACRUS
    in NYC? Its happened in EWR - NJ. Ill have to check
  27. North Balti Zen
    That’s a pretty classic last four or more winter events kinda precip shield for our area - just hilarious watching the moisture hit a wall around Baltimore City and not advance north at all
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