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Not a drop this week.
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INVEST 99L FORMED: (40/40)
BarryStantonGBP replied to BarryStantonGBP's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Watch the names Fernand and Gabrielle be given to SAL-choked systems -
Hoping the news about Bautista possibly being done is rock bottom, and the rest of the Birds can have a healthier 2026. Because this year has been absurd. Rutschman back on the IL again and Westburg still out.
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Do people go to Cracker Barrel? It’s like a Disney theme park ride. You have to walk through a maze of store merchandise just to get to where you’re coming/going to.
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Nelson didn't say anything that others weren't thinking to themselves.
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Cracker Barrel is over !! Just like Bud Light. The woke destroy another. Cant wait for summer to return tomorrow
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Mid to long range discussion- 2025
WinstonSalemArlington replied to wncsnow's topic in Southeastern States
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18z NAM profile is near 90 Saturday BOS SW burbs/metrowest and other usuals.
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Clouds were breaking across the region this afternoon as the rain of yesterday into this morning had departed. Rainfall amounts included: Bridgeport: None Hartford: 1.52" Islip: 0.38" New Haven: 0.81" New York City-Central Park: 0.78" New York City-JFK Airport: 1.03" New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 0.53" Newark: 0.68" Philadelphia: 0.14" Poughkeepsie: 1.23" White Plains: 1.21" It will turn warmer tomorrow. High temperatures will top out mainly in the lower 80s tomorrow through the weekend. The extended range guidance continues to suggest that the closing week of August could feature below normal temperatures. Precipitation could be near normal. There will be higher-than-climatological risk of at least one period in September with highs in the upper 80s or perhaps 90s. Summers similar to the current one have had September highs of 90 or above about 10 percentage points above that for all other years. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn. The SOI was +1.33 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.858 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.4° (1.7° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.8° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
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And yet we've seen an overall decline in violent crime since the 1980/90s, despite warming temps.
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Who said nelson isn’t free? I don’t think anyone should be banned if they are live and let live and don’t start drama. Everyone has different passions. I don’t care about heat so I just scroll past Spartsman complaining about not hitting 90 enough. Who cares. Why does the whole internet need to turn into f***ing reddit with gatekeeping?
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June and July were wet. August has been very dry at only 19% of normal moisture thru 8-20.
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INVEST 99L FORMED: (40/40)
Wannabehippie replied to BarryStantonGBP's topic in Tropical Headquarters
99L is pretty far south, at about 8N. On the other hand Erin broke up a lot of that SAL. Still a lot in the mid and eastern Atlantic. But there is that spot between 90L and 99L that is clear of SAL at the moment. -
We’re so back
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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2025 Obs/Discussion
BBasile replied to Hurricane Agnes's topic in Philadelphia Region
My kind of weather. It's currently 69.2F, which is also the high today. Clouds are clearing, nice breeze. Gonna be a beautiful evening. -
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It’s not that
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My list was developed based on four criteria for which data is widely available: 1. Mean temperature 2. Highest maximum temperature 3. Highest minimum temperature 4. Number of 90F/32.2C or above high temperatures These values were standardized (standard deviations from the historic mean values for the period of record) I ran the numbers weighting each of the four criteria equally (initial approach) and also placing 50% weight on the mean temperature and then allocating the remaining 50% weight equally among the remaining three criteria. Further, I ran these numbers for a true summer (June-August) and extended summer (June-September) scenario. The different approaches were utilized based on various comments and "what if" questions made in the thread. If asked, I lean toward the second approach to weights (50% weight for the mean temperature as opposed to equal weights for all criteria) for the June-September period, as even relatively cool summers can have a short bout of extreme heat. Weighting everything equally skews the values. Separately, but not posted, I also looked at how much warming over the historic period has influenced summer mean temperatures. The coefficient of determination was 0.25, meaning that 25% of the variation in mean summer temperatures is explained by the ongoing warming and 75% is explained by internal variability. That's actually a quite high figure explained by warming, alone. Here's what summers look like at Central Park (1869-2024): Here's what they look like when the warming component is removed (as expected, the trend would be 0, but I included the trend line to illustrate that the warming was fully removed): In other words, here's what they would look like were internal variability, alone, responsible. Based on the data, Summer 2010 was just over 1.1F warmer than it would have been without the warming. Based on the internal variability, if a summer similar to 1876 occurs, the mean would be around 78.5F for the summer given the warming. It's probably a matter of time before the Summer 2010 figure is eclipsed (probably no later than the 2030s). Moreover, when it happens, the margin by which the record is broken could be fairly large, as one has seen elsewhere in recent years where summer records were broken.
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I ignore this forum for long periods when nothing of interest is happening so be happy. Starting drama for no reason is what is really boring.
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Looking forward to temps in the mid 60s for the first day of classes on monday, will be a real shock after months of upper 80s and mid 70s dew down here