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OK fair enough. I see there are factors that result in differences between the hemispheres, though 3 degrees C (about what's shown on that chart) just seems like a bigger range than one would expect as variation. It doesn't seem like the physics would be such that land-vs-water heating rates would be a factor - it should even out should it not? Yes the land heats faster than water, but it also cools faster at night. I could be wrong but I wouldn't think that the cause of heating faster during the day is due to higher level of actual heat absorption, but rather due to the higher level of thermal conductivity of the oceans (they absorb just as much heat - it just spreads out mostly across the depth vs remaining on the surface) Biggest factor though would probably be Antarctica reflecting the energy from the sun back to space. I see another factor is currents; one would think that factor would be minimal, as most currents don't cross the equator; though I know it's complex and there is some crossing.

A nice cold morning out with a low of 40 degrees.

AI usually has animals portrayed with some ridiculous human theme.

You have a nice setting! We've just moved to a new construction home and there's no topsoil at all - just hard, gravelly sand. Gardening is gonna be tough! Having an April with almost a shutout of rainfall didn't help

Even though the Cansips now gets to +2.0 on the ONI, the RONI is weaker. So the big warm pool east of Japan seems to be resulting in a record -WPO for such a strong El Nino. Notice how the Aleutian low is substantially weakened and is further south just off of California. I agree with you that we typically haven’t seen cool anomalies near the Great Lakes with such strong events in the past. Perhaps the warm pool east of Japan could lead to a weaker Aleutian low displaced further than usual with more of a neutral to maybe negative WPO. Also notice that the 2m temps don’t really match the 500mb pattern. So the temperatures would be warmer with all that ridging over North America. I have noticed in the past the CANSIPS running too cool at times even in the near term for the 500mb pattern it’s forecasting. While we know these long range forecasts are often full of errors, if we can just get one thing right like the WPO I would consider that a valuable contribution. But its still to early to know for sure about details like the WPO this far out in time.

Hal 32 degrees this morning. frost also The bedroom is warmer than the house ,house 64 degrees.

34 and frosty

so what happens now

31 was the low this morning with frost.

Celtics pulled all starters with 8 minutes left. I’m a Sixers fan but that is bizarre. Never seen it in an elimination game. Forget that, I’ve never seen it in a playoff game. They have quit in the 4th quarter in the last two games.

PHL finishes April with average temperature 58.7 (4.2 degrees above 1991-2020 average and 4.7 degrees above the 1981-2010 average). This is the 4th warmest April on record.

PHL finishes April with average temperature 58.7 (4.2 degrees above 1991-2020 average and 4.7 degrees above the 1981-2010 average). This is the 4th warmest April on record.

We had a great blocking pattern for about a few weeks in January, right around the time of the snowstorm.

Sorry there is a gap around the 8th of April TAO never updated for me

Meh weekend but M-W (Wed more east) looks good.

Completely agree with you. That model is playing catch up big time. It just made a huge jump in one run to a super El Niño, starting to match all the other guidance. That map makes zero sense. You are going to have a raging STJ on roids screaming across the south….solar irradiance, the south isn’t going to be warm in that setup. I expect it to make massive changes in the next few months

Starting May in the 30s!

Ended up with another .11" from last nights little rain event. Sitting at 36 this morning, so perhaps a light frost in colder areas closer to sunrise.

Pretty good lagged time correlation between a Solar Max and ENSO cycle (El Nino after Solar max, La Nina after Solar min) 0-time is very slight correlation +1year is stronger +2years is stronger! ^Not a bad correlating map between ENSO and the Solar Cycle there, 73 years of data

It looks like NOAA adjusted October 2024 and July 2025's PDO numbers down slightly. I believe Oct 24 was -3.85, now it's -3.24, and I think July 2025 was <-4, now it's -3.83 March 2026 has been adjusted from -1.44 to -1.2

Yup. Folks like Greta, Al Gore and the like…all silly morons. Al Gore now saying an ice age coming in 25 yrs. 20 yrs ago he said no more snow. WTTTE.

CPC sticks a fork in May this year