All Activity

yeah was anyone actually denying upper 50s/low 60s. the only controversial take I saw was "beware of 70"

I consider any accumulation from squalls an overachiever if it's fairly widespread....but yeah, I do think there will be some isolated streamers that get a few lucky peeps. It would be nice if we could turn the low level winds more to the south out ahead of the secondary arctic front. That would help pool a little more moisture.

.

Except not calling for overachiever.

EPS likes 12/6 for another threat. Then when you loop the individual member plot beyond 12/6, it's kind of like buckshot from 12/8-12/11 which is the end of the run...that tells me its pretty active if sub-1004 lows are appearing that frequently on the ensemble plot. Hopefully that NAO depiction is real....it's the type of orientation we want too....the retrograding Scandinavian ridge instead of some ugly thing from the Azors....that type of -PNA/-NAO look I've mentioned in the past can be pretty prolific here.

Note the wind shift with a substantial change in windex potential. Not a huge deal but could be some first accumulation

Up to 72 at Dulles. Christmas in Savannah weather.

WxRisk FINAL winter 2025-26 Forecast https://tinyurl.com/7tjv83cy

i can feel the warmth.

Not very good low level moisture either which is what you want for over achieving WINDEX events.

Hit 70.0 exactly. Really nice out.

It's either giving bait or ghd2 I can't quite decide

High of 58.1 here in EH. I didn't hate it.

More of an east to west trajectory and longer duration as a result

So does wind start tonight and go through Friday? Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Some high-res models showing potential for some snow flurries for Thanksgiving over parts of NW AR and SW MO. We shall see what happens. Classic winter NW flow pattern.

Someone hit 70?

HRR runs have a near ideal band out this way.

I said slam dunk pattern not slam dunk storm. We usually need pattern recognition first. Its trending away from a SE Ridge for now but there are other complications like the MJO and the Pacific is still not playing nice. Yet.

Well surprise surprise. Just got a downpour all be it short. Had 1/4” hail with it. 0.16”.

This guy says no. Let's block him!

Has it ever looked like a slam dunk for southern snow at this range? C'mon man.... Look at how the pattern has changed in just the last 3 days. Who knows what December will bring. We are definitely heading in the right direction... You have to agree with that.

Good to see the 12z GFS, Canadian & Euro each showing a winter storm chance for Tuesday at this point. Plenty of time to sort out the details, but it would be great to get on the board so early even if it ends up as a light event: It should be just the beginning of our chances in December.

You watch your mouth. Don't speak it into existence. Lol Low ratios and snow falling during day in marginal temps will definitely lead to a lot of compaction. Going to be heavy wet snow

Temp is dropping and wind starting to pick up a bit. Down to 44