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By 12Z Saturday, most guidance is in agreement that the 500mbshortwave takes on a more neutral tilt (oriented N-S) over the TNValley and becomes a closed low over GA. PVA becomes maximizedover the Southeast while a surface low spawns along a coastalfront east of the Carolinas. As the 850mb low deepens over northernGA and heads east into SC, easterly 850mb theta-e advection willdirect low-level moisture around the 850mb low and support a bandof moderate-to-heavy snow from northern GA to central SC. Farthernorth, the same tongue of 850mb theta-e is funneling along the850mb front to the north of the 850mb low track from northern SCon east through the heart of NC. This is where the deformation zoneis likely to form, pivoting over central NC and northern SC with1-2"/hr snowfall rates likely. This band of heavy snow is likely toensue farther east into southeast VA, where 700mb FGEN is moreideally placed to support strong vertical velocities within a fullysaturated DGZ. Similar to NC, look for intense bands of heavy snowover southeast VA to form late Saturday afternoon and persist intoSaturday night. These bands of heavy snow in eastern NC andsoutheast VA depict 700-500mb lapse rates >6.5C/km Saturdayafternoon and evening. It is here where not only are 2"/hr snowfallrates achievable, but so is the likelihood for thundersnow. Theintense vertical velocities in eastern NC and southeast VA mayresult in some subsidence in north-central NC and south-central VA.Snowfall is still likely to reach warning criteria, but theseregions are potentially susceptible to lesser snowfall amounts asthey are caught between the influence of the strong upper-low tothe south, and the strengthening coastal low. WPC

Norfolk gets big storms quite often. They get foot 10-12" plus storms about every 5-7 years recently. 2010, 2018, 2025, now this year possibly too.

La Niña did not start fading in December lol @40/70 Benchmark He just refuses to let go of that narrative lol

RGEM is now a modest hit for the Cape, perhaps advisory upper/mid cape and warning level outer cape/ACK. I know, exciting for all on here.

And the low is stronger

Us in the GSP crowd disagree with that statement

What’s is the precipitation forecast for this time?

FWIW the 18z ICON has some closer members compared to 12z

Is that ratioed? .

.02 isn’t much. I’d think something was up if it didn’t go up or down a little. .

Going to say pretty rare. I only moved here in 2020 so it was definitely the most I'd seen in one storm! Originally from Georgia!

https://www.facebook.com/share/1Zzhhs4Wud/?mibextid=wwXIfr How the south does it!

It’ll come back down. Models are even barely grazing the outer Cape now. Ouch.

Pattern is just so dry…gotta find a way to get next week to turn into a minor event like BChill said. Would really be a waste to not get at least a stat padder/snow topper out of this Arctic pattern.

So far most all 18Z have trended NW. Not a huge jump but maybe the NW trend has begun. It should be subtle thru tomorrow 12z. But hope its there.

This ongoing cold wave has erased the big above normal departures of the first half of January

ICON gets award for most improved run of the day

Temps since Saturday imby. What a stretch. Sat: 18.1/9.0 Sun: 21.7/13.5 Mon: 28.3/16.8 Tue: 26.3/8.5 Wed: 22.7/9.1 Thu: 23.3/5.2

Kat, with Mike in the background said 9min ago they are sticking to 3-6 but have considered bumping it up. Haven’t decided yet. They are holding. Numbers have NOT gone down on their forecast since this morning. They have only upped some areas. on same topic, WRAL is notorious for saying the euro shows things it doesn’t. They are also regularly guilty of mixed messaging minute by minute and between social media accounts as far as verbal comments.

Well they have been consistent today

Lol, lock it in!

No, because the cold air is here with snow on the ground...acts like a warm blanket for them

It's just getting more into a better range for it. Also, keep in mind, most models tend to actually underestimate QPF.

Mike Maze put out a PM update. He said snow total probabilities are dropping off on the Euro. Two bullseyes setting up.