All Activity

PDS Flood Emergency for Coastal Okaloosa County, .

Look at the disparity from sustained to gusts. In a minimal HU, NHC will say "max winds sustained 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt" Standard gust factor over water. However, over land, that difference becomes much larger!

I generally agree with you, especially being in the mid-Atlantic where a severe warning is verified on a 35mph gust that takes down a dead tree branch, but I don't think that this one matters too much. I might argue that 115mph sustained is a too high of a marker for an EWW. That's an EF2 tornado sustained! Hopefully this cam stays up. https://maps.app.goo.gl/5GBwpLHVo3nQd6CH8

Sounds like @CoastalWx response! It's not snow, so MEH!

It has been in ET transition for at least the last 6 hr. Once the srn part of the eyewall was gone, that was the first signal.

If so, they are violating their own directive. Why have thresholds for warnings if they are just deliberately ignored? Why not lower the criteria for a svr tstm warming for winds less then 58 mph in gusts b/c they can still do damage? How about pea size hail? A lot of pea size hail can devastate crops. Issue a warning for that? It is slippery slope. There comes a point of diminishing returns. Excessive alerts eventually become counterproductive.

My point was all that Sandy damage happened after its extratropical transition. If the only criteria is supposedly “damage that occurred while it was tropical” then it doesn’t count.

Well modelled IMHO. A huge difference between a mid-latitude winter snowstorm and a tropical system of any CAT. Hurricanes are a whole different beast. I would take a 2 footer over 100+ mph. hurricane. Different adrenaline rush too.

I assume many people thought that this would be a halfacane at landfall, but this is more impressive than the radar presentation would lead on.

Whoa! So it did happen at the very last min. Just delayed from what the HAFS showed earlier. This is non-trivial rise in what, less than 90 min? From the winds where the pressure was taken, the actual pressure is about 970 mb That barely supports 85 kt winds in a purely tropical system, which Isaias is not and has not been for some time. Operationally, I can see it higher when it makes landfall, post-analysis though? Katrina its rapid weakening phase originally was 120 kt at landfall, but they reduced it to 110 kt. Lili was 90 kt, but reduced it to 80 kt later. Also, when a TC is rapidly weakening near landfall, NHC often keeps it higher for winds that reality b/c they do not want to have ppl et their guard down too much, They clearly did this w/ Milton. So obvious when you saw FL and SFMR winds, and the assigned intensity. I find that disingenuous. We all look at the same data and see things for what they are. Don't insult our intelligence! So models had the right idea, just timing was off, but you really can't expect them to nail down something as mesoscale as an inner core of HU as to when it starts to degrade quickly.

I mean I think it’s probably a cat 1 at this point but this is what the majority of October land falling storms look like in the US. The system that pulls them north rips them apart.

PNS might have better mixing, but almost looks like a second wind max there on both radars.

Big difference between sandy and 2020 Isaias. Sandy was deadly and caused way more damage.

Lol obviously new to Gulf halfcanes

Storm chasers are showing that this cane is falling apart.

Per Dr. Knabb: The strongest winds are currently on the NW-W side of the center due to how the strong southerly wind shear is interacting. Interesting.

83 today. Forecast is for 87 Monday. What month is it anyway?

Yeah wow looks more like a strong TS

Pensacola 92mph METAR KPNS 092353Z 04038G80KT 2 1/2SM VCTS RA BR BKN065 OVC085 19/18 A2924 RMK AO2 PK WND 05080/2346 LTG DSNT SE-W SLP903 P0029 60156 T01940178 10217 20194 58141

All the creeks and rivers are very low. Fontana is down about 25' plenty of places for the water to go. Nothing like helene where it poured for 2 days before it hit

Some gusty winds and heavy rain as the remmant core pushes ashore

Well there you go. Only 6 weekends. Pretty crazy.

How do you figure... it still did not make landfall yet and the eye is pretty much gone on the radar. It almost looks like it has begun extratropical transition.