All Activity

We’re not gonna have any problems with this GFS run

Is this from someone you trust or some weenie (like me)?

Different 850s entirely (we are not going to have snow out of this), but the radar signature on the latest NAM is very similar to the storm in 2004 that dropped 18-24" on snow in CLT/Rock Hill. We got 4" on the front end with that storm, then a dry slot, then everything filled right back in with the ULL in virtually the same location. Temps on the 2004 storm were 7-10 degrees warmer at the surface than this storm; however, the cold air from both storms was from CAD as well Like I said, different 850s......but same signature- this would be sleet, and lots of it

Anything that does fall liquid wise well become frozen........ very bad

It’s a hair wetter by hr40. Could also just be faster. Both ok with me

your honest opinion, do i sleet in White Plainsv

DBZ? Always bro

Still pretty skeptical on real sleet getting north of the south coast….not talking about dryslot pellets/snow grains that ends up irrelevant to the snow totals. But actual legit pounding sleet. But we’ll see if we get a bump north between now and go time…if so, then maybe real sleet sneaks into places like PYM over to EWB and maybe even TAN-GHG.

HP to the north little hiigher at 21

Still into yugio?

Storms in south Texas with the initial wave may rob some moisture somewhere in E/NE Texas. Something that may limit total precip from 1.5"-2" down to maybe 1" in some places.

Now to be totally fair, the HP has weakened some (based on SPC mesoanalysis) since contentwx posted the above:

The way I remember 1994, we haven't really had anything comparable since. I mean there was only the tips of grass coming through 3" of rock solid ice. Couldn't get my footing. Everything was encapsulated.. I wish we can experience something like that again.. -EPO and +NAO is the ingredients, which we almost have here.. if it wasn't for -3 AO it would probably be more ice and less snow.

FWIW, I have always liked your PBP and much appreciate the reserved caution. And that goes both ways, whether it's looking better or worse. You present it factually and do your best to not impart a bunch of emotion (happy or upset), until the run is completed. I mean, when it looks better while things are still in progress coming out, you're cautious which is a good thing...and when the final result is in, you'll give the FOLKS or GUYS or maybe even JAWS (if we get an event of that magnitude!). But even if it's looking like crap, you don't go all whiney about it like all too many in here, you just state that it's not good and "on to the next run", something like that.

This is one for the ages. The GGEM 12z run showing snow on the ground at 240 hours. Never seen that before.

GFS about the same so far

Its gonna snow. Its going to be the most we have seen this winter. Yes it will sleet and be icy too, and for some rain a bit, but everyone will see several inches. Quit moaning if you expected a foot and it isnt realistic anymore. Enjoy what you get- it isnt going anywhere for a week- and we have the potential big dog coastal storm to track for next weekend. The tracking never ends when we have a favorable pattern. Rather have a shit the blinds pattern with nothing?

I started posting on weather boards when I was 14 in 2001. Had some crazy trips 5-10 years back where I didn't sleep for weeks on end, but I'm good now

That is what usually say... The big flakes are right near the change over line.

From another board on the latest PGH NWS discussion "I believe they are wrong but they are thinking the warm nose cuts further north through West Virginia. I think many mets (outside of content now) are underestimating the QPF that's going to come north. Part of it is that you really don't want to bust by predicting too high because you've gotten the masses in a frenzy, but I also feel that what has been shown this year is that you need to add 10-20% to the performance of the system. Maybe the warm nose does cut in, but I'll take my chances and say that that low doesn't hang on as long."

GFS is running.. already a tick south

Sorry in all seriousness you’re right a clear warm tongue there shown on the Nam it’s really good on picking those features up. Frustrating!

Playing Weather Model Roulette with no odd or even or black or red

Icon continues to be a massive event here. Looks like it ticked back up from 12z ~1.5” qpf for most of eastern ma