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We watch, we monitor. No need to jump. No negatives in the grand scheme today since this AM.

Tomorrow will be a bit milder with temperatures returning to the lower 40s with another brief push of somewhat cooler air following for Monday. No exceptionally cold or warm weather appears likely for the first week of astronomical winter. In terms of precipitation, light snow or snow showers are possible on Tuesday. The closing week of December could experience periodic warmer and cooler days. It now appears that the cooler anomalies will persist mainly in central and northern New England. The probability that December 2025 will have a maximum monthly temperature below 60° has increased further. The last time that happened was in 2019 when the monthly high was 58°. If 2025 has a monthly high below 60°, that would be only the fifth such occurrence since 2000 (2003, 2004, 2005, and 2019 are the cases since 2000). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +8.15 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.749 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 99% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.5° (4.6° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.9° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

I don't do forecasts. But. Looking at all the forecasts I've seen right now. Looks like a good bet for a coating to 2" for NYC proper. 1-3"/2-4" nw of 287. Currently: clear, calm, 27.9

It's in Europe. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512200000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202512290000 Coincidentally, Europe was really cold before we had our cold starting mid-late November, so maybe we live through AN in January while we wait for another chance late Januaryinto February. Just a thought...or prayer.

GFS is colder again, would like to keep that trend going .. euro is like 5 degrees warmer Tuesday afternoon and 10 degrees warmer Tuesday night

Maybe it will help out with the 26th as well....wishful thinking? Lets just get a regionwide 2-4 and hope for clouds on Christmas eve to maintain the 'pack' for Christmas

seems like a few models are shifting the colder air south along with more moisture and interaction with the warm front to the south 1 -4 inches still on the table as of now IMO...

Just line me up with the norlun after a couple.

Feels pleasant out there today after yesterday’s chill. Up to 47F at PIT.

18z AIGFS also a good bump SW.

Carver, my take on things is if by mid January things haven't changed and don't look good moving forward, I mentally wave the white flag. I know people do different things, but that's my stance on it.

I had a 50’ section of buck and rail fencing that was lifted, moved about 10’, and broken. This particular type of fencing is wide open and not prone to catching the wind. Based on the damage I estimate a 100mph+ gust. The odd thing is that it is only 70’ from my PWS which only logged a max of 56mph and is quite accurate. These gusts must have been extremely narrow and localized.

They are meant for you to look at once a week not every day

Placing yourself in someone else’s personal mental state is a science unto itself. This place has been an outlet and a hindrance to my own mental health. I know where TB12 is and I feel his pain. I’m pulling hard for the GFS to be the outcome.

You can see all the personal wx stations went down at the same time here. Right when gusts were starting to crank and it was raining hard.

18z gfs looks comically different than 12z. At 00z Wednesday, 12z had moderate to heavy snow over most of ma. At 18z it’s gone

Nao is negative so these south shifts isnt surprising.

Gfs south

Weaker too. Probably the biggest issue

Yeah I was going to reply to Scott earlier, probably going to need 3” to verify a white Christmas. 2” will be patches come Thursday morning

Woof.. GFS with the same big jump SW as ICON and RRFS .. has some currier and ives type stuff late Tuesday into Wednesday.

The NAM covers the grass for 12 of us.

That to me says we are in a sweet spot. Gulf lows come on down!

It’s too early to say whether January will be cold and snowy or not. What we do know is the polar vortex is now to expected to strengthen well above average levels, which favors +NAO conditions. That’s a reasonable baseline to operate from when assessing the expected January pattern. But it remains unclear if we will go country wide torch (mild and rainy east) or +TNH (cold, snowy east). Based on historical precedence of -PNA La Niña Decembers transitioning to +PNA (or less -PNA) Januarys, I am in the +TNH camp. As always, it is important to be open to adapting as we get new information. Historical precedence > long range guidance, but if the warm signal strengthens for Jan and we are near new years, then it’s time to reevaluate.