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Lets reanalyze the situation. Obviously the GFS has continued to trend better for our area, but why has that happened? As I pointed out in this post we were struggling with a significant amount of vorticity north of where we want it to consolidate which prevents us from getting a good surface low going. The latest 12z GFS pretty much doesn't have that at all anymore as the flow behind it acts to pinch off the northern end of the vorticity and flatten it. Being brutally honest, I don't know how likely that really is to happen. Additionally, the vort lobes that were (and probably will) cause us problems still exist and have a bunch of complex low-to-low interactions out in the plains, luckily it ends with them merging into a weaker low. Another thing to note that helps this run out is the additional piece of energy south of the main vorticity ribbon. IMO without this energy (and it is nonexistent on some past runs) there isn't the same mechanism to get it to go so negatively tilted and as far south. If you can notice I'm not super enthused about this setup as it stands because 1. it seems complicated with so many interactions within the trough itself 2. This run seemed to go extremely well for us and it seems like adjusting any parameters (besides increasing the southern energy) may actually hurt us. That said, I'm also a bit pessimistic from other tracking this year so I may be biased, additionally, I am not one of the actually smart mets on here so defer to them but I hope this helps people understand what to look for.

My son and I were just reminiscing about the snowstorm we chased at Ocean City when it sowed 12 inches. Would have been perfect if this started on Friday. Would probably be another opportunity.

I am rusty... what time does 12z King tip off?

Rime up there is legit. I worked down the hill from KMWN at Lakes of the Clouds in the fall many years ago. When we closed up the hut for winter (last full day of service was the equinox) we had BN wx blow in. The summit had a high of 26, low of 22, even 1000' below we were below freezing the whole time, with an average wind speed of 60 mph and gusts up to 84, meaning that it was pretty constant the whole time. And we were in a cloud almost constantly, being blown at us at 60 mph and sticking to everything (meanwhile it was 60° and sunny in the valley). We had a foot of rime on anything exposed to the NW winds, which included the chain link fence around our compost (which we had to work on) which became a wind break, but also the rime blew into the generator, which ran for a few minutes and then choked, and coated our solar, so we had pretty minimal power. It made for interesting working conditions but we muddled through. (A week later it was 55 and sunny and I'm not bitter about that at all.) But yeah, the rime up there is cool, and it's often okay for hiking on some of the trails because the relatively flat tread doesn't get coated but the more vertical rocks around are.

The ever lovin' truth w/ the GFS.

Monstah! The board will come to life in 5....4......3.....2.....1.....

Lucy just caught the snap.

It seems like every year now right around MLK day we are dealing with snow .

Still close

Alright west trend was great everyone gets a storm but it can kindly stop now that we’re in the bullseye lol

I think some appreciable snow is a good bet.

Great info, thanks. I’ll say, I hate feeling like I’m pulling against you guys down south and east cause I know historically speaking you guys get chances way less than we do. But it’s been such a bad stretch up here that I almost need the atmosphere to prove to me that it can still do it for my sanity.

The 12z ICON has this but is well east. The GFS is gonna have to have some more support, but it is well within range to score the coup.

Hello

Well i've clearly pissed somebody off lol

Can I lock that in here in the Northern Neck....Will be rain by next run the way thats trending!

It did…. Except when you don’t want it to. .

AI about the same as 6z. Definitely not like gfs op.

Going to be very interested in the GEFS. If the snowfall mean ticks up, then we might be onto something here.

I think we need it stronger.

Saturday looks like higher el perhaps. Kind of borderline.

I think this is likely a legit system for the NE at the very least. Remember, golf and I were discussing this several pages ago. The 500 trough looked ripe. Bigbald, for the GFS...yes. I think the NW jog occurs as modeling strengthens the storm sometimes as it gets closer. In other words, it underestimates the storm, tightens it up, and it pulls NW over several runs. The GFS has came well west during the past 24 hours. We are about to run out of runway though before this locks in. But w/ this being a "surprise" feature(Euro had that weird run a couple of days ago with this...might it have been right?) the track may not be locked quite yet.

What da helly

Congrats bitchers and whiners in sema.

It's coming. Bite, and bite down hard.