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Currently running at my low year-to-date precip over my 13-year CoCoRahs record. Not great.

Low right at 32 this morning. Cold out.

The tropical forcing tends to focus in areas where the absolute SSTs approach +30C regardless of the departures getting smaller due to climate change. This is one of the reasons that the forcing was so much further west in 2023-2024 and 2015-2016 than in 1997-1998. But it’s possible that if the RONI remains lower relative to the ONI again like in 2023-2024, we may not get the stronger Aleutian Low development like in earlier El Niños. Same for the trough that usually sets up over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast which was missing back in 2023-2024. Still too early to tell if the troughs will be weaker again like in 2023-2024 allowing more Southeast ridge development than usual. It may be that if the El Niño gets stronger than 2023-2024 in both ONI and RONI, we get more of a traditional stronger Aleutian Low and low in the Southeast. Plus the warm pool east Japan could influence the jet development leading to weaker troughs also even if the SSTs are outside the 20N to 20S RONI range. Then we have the expansion of the subtropical ridges which could also come into play. Remember, we had a weak La Niña in 2025-2026 and the strongest subtropical ridge near the SW U.S. ever from November to March. So these ridges are becoming more dominant than the troughs.

Must be some decent snow in the higher els. I see a lot of 32.5-33 temps in the 2kft+ sites. The autoroad is 32° at 2300ft.

High 58.0, low 33.8. Although under a freeze warning we got neither a freeze nor frost due to the light N/NW breezes that never became still overnight. Both those temps nowhere near records either, 49 in 1995 and 28 in 1981. Currently 34.0/27.9 at 7:45 am under clear skies with NNW at 5 mph winds.

I think what you’re looking for is “summer”.

35 here near Winston Salem, and a good frost.

40 for the low, light breeze with a chill of 39

Wow, at the last minute, a frost advisory was extended for one more row of counties south of what MRX had, which put my area in it as well. I figured there would probably be some frost, but I see it was MRX being their conservative selves. Anyway, sure enough, when I stepped outside, there is frost here in the low areas behind the house. Temp is 37 on my station.

What is this "warm" of which you speak?

The 30 day SOI average is down to -9.59. There has been a very clear, pronounced negative trend since mid-March. Despite a lack of consistent severely negative values, the warming at the surface and subsurface has been record breaking as have the OHC, DWKWs and WWBs

Yeah, I was quite surprised this morning. It's 38 now, but was 41 when I first woke a 4am. Yes, I'm an early bird and can't sleep in even on my days off.

43. No frost. Flowers survive another day!

37 for the low. And no frost.. thank you lord. Hopefully it will start warming up.

Not sure when winter ends and spring begins here; low down to 37F .08” of rain yesterday; good weather for the lawn to grow.

He needs a dog. My dachshund will kill anything that steps in my yard. Haha

Currently 37 degrees Definitely some unsettled weather. Picked .15.” Of rain Friday. Yesterday cool and windy 24 mph wind gust. I got my coal stove back fired up this weekend. Constant 70 degrees is nice. Smoked a couple of chuck roasts yesterday. Kind of got away from running the smoker over the winter.

Daily ONI is already passing +1.0c in Nino 3.4 and subsurface is warmest ever only below 1997, normal 65F areas on the thermocline are 80F right now. It's going to at least go Strong. SOI is the biggest counter-indicator.. it hasn't had more than a few very negative days.

Drought guy may be on to something...although this seems normal to me. https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/polar-vortex-aftermath-to-bring-more-chilly-may-days-to-midwest-northeast/1886949

No AC yet here and doesnt look like we will need it for awhile.. April had a few very warm days but we also had some snow.. May will come.in below normal it looks like.. we take!

Must be nice not living less than 5 miles from a 45 degree ocean. Hopefully us mist weary coastal inhabitants can get some much needed relief later this week!

Even in 23-24 the SOI didn't go very negative... it's been following the PDO in the 2020s where it's leaning positive most of the time Only 16 months of -SOI since July 2020. 77% +SOI during that time Everyone was saying early in the year where we can't have a Strong Nino so close to the last Strong Nino since ENSO is at least partially about balance. Check out this RONI streak.. we are evening this out, imo

Yes,im not sure even MV does maint on his sites anymore,but i still use it,so it could be wrong for sure

This has been what the JMA has been showing and the folllowing year generally leads back into a NINA the following winter

Agreed and Jax made the correction. But it’s too bad that the monthly updates have stopped. In other ENSO news, I still find it interesting that this sharp warming is occurring without a sustained or notably strong -SOI. We’ve had only short periods of strong -SOI so far and I see no long ones over the next week or so. Some negatives sure, but..