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Yeah, the FV3 is a better scenario. Flip isn't until 21z and 1" QPF falls by then in DC. I just don't buy it.

Yup the more intense the precip the more it'll fight back against mixing.

Yeah, we just got 'NAMd' down here....sheesh what a run.

The NAM is starting to see the light. .

In years like this, snowfall on top of snowpack, I'm reminded of what my grandmother said during her 15 or so years living in central New Hampshire, "Mother Nature doesn't like dirty snow."

Monday looks great on it too. Please lock this for my sanity.

Ice Storm Warning up: ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Significant icing, in addition to compacted sleet, expected. Total sleet and snow accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations between one half and one inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...A portion of the southern North Carolina mountains near the Blue Ridge Escarpment, and the mountains of northwest South Carolina. * WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Monday.

Yeah, word on the street is it sucks at thermals, but we can get a dopamine fix out of it at least. I hate the NAM. It's only right when it fucks us.

It actually starts out warmer. Earlier in the run I was like welp here we go again. But that sleet line just stalls on Sunday afternoon. It will come down to rates but also the development of the secondary low.

March will rock!

I mentioned a while ago ( while I was in a meeting and should not have been doing so - ) that the RGEM was a better choice for me overnight. The NAM has a N-W bias over this region of eastern conus/western Atl - which I've been hammering for years ... I know. But with that in mind I was just suspicious that 06z solution was a bit latitude happy. The RGEM 00z-06z were essentially identical within a range of irrelevant noise. At a larger philosophical approach, this whole situation is like two elephant asses on a collision course - namely...the insance -EPO loading and resulting arctic outbreak, smashing head long into a Phase 6 MJO atmosphere ( the correlations of which are a heat wave in the OV...) . The momentum is established. ..Usually, events that are rooted in huge corrections like that are going to happen. It's really not a question if... it's just becomes a needling detail as to what backyard gets what.

yeah not sure if its a cod thing but its a little funky in that regard. but thats the type of lift we want to see!

If the coastal is stronger like the GFS has been showing for days the mix line won't get north of the Monmouth cty

Good to see the NAM get slightly colder and bump the QPF up. With the heavy snow burst to start it should work to hold the warm air back a little at 750-800mb that would flip us over. I don’t think it’s a coincidence the lighter QPF models also flipped us quicker. Becoming a little more confident at least the northern parts of NYC/LI and toward I-80 get the higher end of 8-12”.

Everything faster. 3k has us close to 6 by 1pm with a flip soon after.

Shocked with that colder shift, 16-20"+ run .. best case scenario here and for most in New England

FV3 was based on the GFS physics I think, and often is pretty close to the GFS so there is that.

I had the same question and didn't get any answers. I don't think a single model has been close to 24" since Tuesday. I think I could chatGPT an app that produces better precip forecasts than apple weather.

Don't see this every day. Days 6 to 10 temps, during this time period is where a powerful low pressure system may effect the deep South and then turn the corner as a MECS. General theme here might be a colder scenario for snow further South and East.

Wow was not expecting that on the NAM good run. Watching out west on that run you can see the storm seemingly being pushed east faster which may help with the primary. Fast flow to the rescue? Forky right yesterday?

I guess it depends on your definition of "barely any snow". I think a <4" snowfall is still an outlier possibility for DC. Even on the 3k NAM the sounding is perfectly fine up until 15z (12z for reference below).

I agree, it’s a product of the shifts that @psuhoffman shared. Again; there were positives for sure.

Its not too late! Just go twice!!

Much better run - still going to be a huge drop off somewhere around central NJ