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this look close definitely something to watch in the next few runs. chances are low but models suck

What a silly post. Do you understand why the ONI is measured on a tri-monthly basis??

WB 12Z EPS 7 day temp and precip anomalies 21-28,

What has he been wrong about? It's been colder than just about everyone thought....he kept harping on dry winter and that is precisely what we've seen.

for what? Dry and cold?

Looks like the HRRR has rain ending as some snow in central NC for Thursday.

This is me this winter. 32" on the year with >1" snowcover for 42 of the last 45 days and yet the high water mark for OTG is 5.5". The 1.5" that is OTG now is a block of ice. You can stand on it and it does not give. I went to core it yesterday before I headed to DC for the week and it broke the plastic gauge I use to assess water content.

Not a huge fan of the choice though I get it. He's clearly a fantastic coach that has turned a 4-13 roster into a 9-8 team for the past 4 years... but the team needs a good tank. Kinda hope the Giants scoop him right up.

Yeah about 7/30 have a moderate/strong hit, so its showing up on the mean like this (24-hr)

Now THAT is a really good pattern.

Not to mention we’ve had several systems that were initially amped get crunched SE and whiffs or something less impressive…even including the “cutter” this past weekend which ended up a sheared out piece of trash with lots of CAD.

@Carvers Gap the maps look really good. Just need a well timed system to drop from Wyoming to Louisiana. I don't have access to individuals. Is the Euro throwing anything showing this type potential or are they mostly showing a gradient pattern in the LR?

We definitely believe you. Just add in a few more smiley faces to really convince the rest.

sure jan.

Tick tock….

That is 10" in W. Thompson. That was the storm that had massive subsidence outside of those main mega bands and caused a serious snowfall gradient around them. Reports in the surrounding areas were similar with 12.5" in putnam and 10" in hampton. If it was just one rogue report i might consider tossing it but there were many that fell off sharply once you got out of that main banding. Also don't forget this was the storm where i had a very long conversation with @JC-CT about his 9" report in Columbia despite all the surrounding reports being in the 13-22" range. I believe him and thats why there is a hole over Columbia. Same thing with @metagraphica14.5" report in Salem. It can be very hard to discern whats legitimate and what's not especially in a storm like this thats long duration, lot of wind, and subsidence outside of banding. But i definitely think those reports are legit considering everything surrounding it is in the 10-13" range around Thompson. Here's the revised updated maps i just finished, ct, sne, tri-state are also updated https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-28-29-2022

Mike Tomlin is stepping down. Wow.

“30+ days in MJO phase 8 in December”. One of the best doozy’s of all time from you. Stick to arresting perps in the Bronx

How many times are you going to be wrong this winter ? Jeez man give it a rest.

pretty nice timeseries from the campus wx station today, sw winds really ripping through campus, and we're a few degrees above modeled for the afternoon.

Wrong again, but that’s normal for you. There was just a massive EWB and positive SOI spike and region 3.4 has dropped as low as it’s been for this entire event. Maybe you should stick to predicting 30+ day long MJO phase 8 events

I'm in awe of the absolute clinic (interference and otherwise) by which SNE is missing significant snowfall, especially now in a BN cold stretch... For 15-16th and 18-19th in particular, strength of the vort on guidance a few days ago seemed like it would overcome any inteference issues to at least graze (15-16th) or cut (18-19th) A corollary: there are many more routes to having no event than there are for an event to materialize. I did this last year and was curious how it extrapolates this year... I charted 4-year rolling average snowfall at KBOS. Obviously 2025-2026 is not over, so for February and March I just used historic means (* indicates extrapolation from historic means for those 2 months). Look how off the charts this 4 year stretch has been... well below 2 standard deviations:

First sentence was spot on, though the 7th was halfway between 6th and 8th. Temps here: 1-6: 18 -2 7-12: 35 19 The 7-12 "norms" are 1.4° lower than 1-6, making the mild-up even greater.

No, at this point I'd rather the opposite. I'm DONE with cold and dry...I don't care if it rains, at least it's not 0 degree WCs.