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Gulf-effect snow. Fantastic. The HRRR has a hint of it too.

He’s always been that way for us .

I mentioned this before as the other day the GFS showed the system going south and OTS. Those runs showed the system coming down from Canada which maybe a reason. I say that because the GFS 18z run the other day didn't show the system coming down from Canada and so the system came west to east and we got snow. Now the GFS is showing that system again coming down from Canada.

Looking SE from Havre de Grace. The hills are Turkey Point in Cecil. The Bay is about 95% covered.

Temp has jumped from 31 to 36 within a half hour. Pressure dropped and is rising again vice versa with solar radiation. I don’t know if you guys have access to sub hourly models but they have steadily kept snow showers in the forum longer as the day has progressed. .

Looking at those maps he lacks a lot of knowledge with regards to the western part of the state

Maps showing dry slot vs. maps that don't: which ones would you trust more in the short-range? Southern Pines is either a monster storm or less than half of that.

Wrong thread bro.

Brad and Allan for quick reference

Good luck to ya'll in the East.

I live in SW Winston-Salem. I think Brad's map makes sense, even though I hope to get much more. Honestly, I've been trying to keep expectations for my backyard at 1". I think dry slots will get me.

Nobody does.

its not going to rain...why is it showing snow down there in the carolinas

Proper snowglobe action

What's going on? Dry slotting Raleigh?

Not sure why we’re crashing out so hard right now. It’s nearly 6 days away and will take time to resolve. Besides if this storm goes north we rain! Frankly it being to our south is the best shot we get something frozen even if we aren’t the jack zone

The sky is in full Threads mode today with bright sun fighting through otherwise completely uniform overcast skies. Dust has already been falling for hours. It kind of feels reminiscent of the eclipse the other year

Looking at really long range for next winter. This is what it's looking like to me atm. Dec 2026 - mixed pattern with a cold start, and finish to the month (+/- near avg) Jan 2027 - most of the month looks rather cold until the last week or so (well below avg) Feb 2027 - mixed pattern with a cold ending (near/above avg) Should be another interesting winter

https://x.com/realcoldrain/status/2017266699469213868?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg .

You have a great point. My vague memory always remembers them starting around dusk or in the early AM hours. Waking up to way more than forecast. Every one I can remember during the day was a temperature battle that cut totals.

That's certainly possible.

One of these days man

If its below freezing for a month straight, you know its finally going to start precipitating 45 minutes before we lose the column so we can enjoy 45 minutes of decent flakes at 3AM.